Make Your 2020 General Election Predictions Here!

[No Self]

3 minutes ago, b_woo said:

I have merely asked a couple of questions and communicated a personal observation.

The problem is when two sides are held to vastly different standards. Any amount of lying and cheating by one party is accepted as normal, whereas the slightest misgivings on the other side leads to a false sense of tit-for-tat equivalency. If we have distorted logic, it is important to be aware of it.

[Forestluv]

GA update: Biden's lead in GA is now up to 4.2k. I can't find the estimated number of outstanding ballots left, yet my impression is that there are very few and Biden's first count lead is around 4k. Historically, it's tough to flip a 4k lead without a tabulation error. 

Assuming a fair recount, it's 80%+ chance for Biden. 

I'm really grateful to Stacey Abrams. In 2018, she lost a razor thin governer's race filled with voter suppression and lack of transparency. She spent the last two years fighting for voter's rights and more transparency. My sense is the recount will be relatively fair - and if they overturn a 4k margin, they need to show some type of gross error. Saying there were some miscounted or ineligible ballots isn't enough - that type of stuff only flips hundreds of votes. Maybe 1-2k. Yet once it gets into 4k+, I think there needs to be some type of tabulation error. 

[Free Mind]

15 minutes ago, Forestluv said:

They are being counted, yet Trump / GOP was successful in getting these ballots put to the side during their lawsuits trying to invalidate these ballots. These votes have not been added to the reported PA numbers. 

Okay, so the current lead in PA does not include lately arrive mail-ins, at least the ones that were being counted in the midst of this lawsuit from my understanding of your post. I really hope this case is dismissed because it's such an absurd case. I'm not aware of any law that mandates a due date for when legitimately valid mail-ins that are cast on the day of or before election day arrive. Fortunately, it appears Biden is not highly dependant on these votes with his current lead. 

 

22 minutes ago, Forestluv said:

People have been talking for months about how Trump will force lawsuits. His chances of gaining traction go up considerably if there is an auto-recount in AZ or PA

This is exactly what I'm concerned about. A recount with the new standards of however mail-in ballots and provisional votes will be counted may tread in Trump's favor, especially given the currently tight margins. I just hope the PA supreme court has the decency and self-awareness to reject any interest and agenda towards a deliberate recount with a revised counting method that favors the right. Unless there's clear evidence for voter fraud, any recount with rulings over postmarked mail-in ballots will be deliberate because the court is completely aware of the thin margins and what's at stake. Guess we can only have faith that the system will hold. Thanks for your great updates by the way. 

[Forestluv]

Part of the problem with the Trump team's argument is how consistent it is. In PA, they want to invalidate post-marked, late arriving ballots - yet in AZ they want to count post-marked, late arriving ballots. 

[Preety_India]

Stacey Abrams did a great job at making sure that nearly 800,000 voters were registered and were able to vote. 

 

[Hatfort]

1 minute ago, b_woo said:

Jeppers! It's quite tribal in here isn't it? For the record I am not pushing at any narrative/side here if you cannot tell. I was all for the Bern, such rubbish how he was treated. 

I have merely asked a couple of questions and communicated a personal observation.

Okay, I'll put you in context. There's been a troll creating multiple accounts on this thread the last days, including this. So anyone appearing with a new account would seem to be him again. Don't take it personally.

I was pro Bernie too, it sucked when he lost. But he's been an example, he's been campaining for the Democrat candidate against Trump, like he said he would, understanding he was a menace to democracy. Man, he was so right, warned about what Trump would do in the scenario of a tight election, he nailed it. He's way more talented than Biden, but it wasn't possible.

[Free Mind]

Just now, Forestluv said:

Part of the problem with the Trump team's argument is how consistent it is. In PA, they want to invalidate post-marked, late arriving ballots - yet in AZ they want to count post-marked, late arriving ballots. 

Hahah, yeah. At this point, they're not even trying to hide their corruption and hypocrisy anymore. They're in full-desperation mode. The even more crazy thing is that the right doesn't seem to find this problematic or indecent or even acknowledge that it's a problem. 

[Preety_India]

2 minutes ago, Forestluv said:

- yet in AZ they want to count post-marked, late arriving ballots. 

I want those late arriving ballots in Arizona to mostly  belong to Biden giving a lead. That would be poetic. 

 

[abrakamowse]

Here you can check the laws and rules for different states about postmark deadlines for absentee ballots

https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/vopp-table-11-receipt-and-postmark-deadlines-for-absentee-ballots.aspx

[Free Mind]

3 minutes ago, abrakamowse said:

Here you can check the laws and rules for different states about postmark deadlines for absentee ballots

https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/vopp-table-11-receipt-and-postmark-deadlines-for-absentee-ballots.aspx

Oh okay, wasn't aware that there are indeed deadlines in certain states for absentees 

[Thewritersunion]

Imagine Bernie Bro’s and MAGA loosing to Joe Biden

[abrakamowse]

1 minute ago, Free Mind said:

Oh okay, wasn't aware that there are indeed deadlines in certain states for absentees 

Everyday we learn something new. I didn’t know either. 
 

Good to know. I’m going to search too about the rules about the recount of votes. I’m curious about that too. @Forestluv has given some valuable info about that too.

I didn’t know there was different rules and laws depending on the state. I thought it was all controlled at a national level. 
 

 

[b_woo]

5 minutes ago, Thewritersunion said:

Imagine Bernie Bro’s and MAGA loosing to Joe Biden

I prefer the term Sander Simps please. 

 

[abrakamowse]

Election recount laws here:

https://ballotpedia.org/Election_recount_laws_and_procedures_in_the_50_states,_2020

[Forestluv]

28 minutes ago, Free Mind said:

Okay, so the current lead in PA does not include lately arrive mail-ins, at least the ones that were being counted in the midst of this lawsuit from my understanding of your post. I really hope this case is dismissed because it's such an absurd case. I'm not aware of any law that mandates a due date for when legitimately valid mail-ins that are cast on the day of or before election day arrive. Fortunately, it appears Biden is not highly dependant on these votes with his current lead. 

Exactly. the post-marked late-arriving ballots have not been invalidated (that is Trump's lawsuit). For now, they have just been placed to the side and have not been added to the published vote totals. My impression is that the courts will hear Trump's case and this is why the PA court told election officials to put the ballots aside.

In PA, the state senate is majority republican. The governer and head election official are democrat and wanted to start VBM counting days before Nov. 3rd - yet the republican PA senate blocked them. My impression is the election officials want to publish the the post-marked, late arriving ballots. I hope they are counting those ballots now. If the PA supreme court decides against Trump and gives elections officials the green light - they need to immediately release those numbers - because Trump will try to immediately get scotus block their release to get a scotus trial. Once those numbers are released, it will be much harder to invalidate those ballots. It's much easier to invalidate ballots most people don't know about and aren't included in the tally. In contrast, imagine a court invalidating ballots that have already been included in the tally, such that Biden's current 28k lead was cut to a 2k lead. Those optics look like blatant cheating and their would be public outrage. Even though the post-marked ballots are legal, Trump's team can hope most people don't know about them or he can portray them as "pending" or "illegal" ballots,. 

28 minutes ago, Free Mind said:

This is exactly what I'm concerned about. A recount with the new standards of however mail-in ballots and provisional votes will be counted may tread in Trump's favor, especially given the currently tight margins. I just hope the PA supreme court has the decency and self-awareness to reject any interest and agenda towards a deliberate recount with a revised counting method that favors the right. Unless there's clear evidence for voter fraud, any recount with rulings over postmarked mail-in ballots will be deliberate because the court is completely aware of the thin margins and what's at stake. Guess we can only have faith that the system will hold. Thanks for your great updates by the way. 

The PA supreme court has consistently ruled against Trump. I just read up more on this case and I made an error. The PA supreme court upheld the law and said the post-marked, late arriving ballots should be counted and tabulated. The PA republican senate then went to scoutus, who said the ballots must be separated and could not be included in the tabulation at this time. PA election officials have said there are about 55k of these ballots, which would be a 27k lead. That 27k could have helped prevent a recount. 

[Consilience]

[Consept]

50 minutes ago, b_woo said:

Jeppers! It's quite tribal in here isn't it? For the record I am not pushing at any narrative/side here if you cannot tell. I was all for the Bern, such rubbish how he was treated. 

I have merely asked a couple of questions and communicated a personal observation.

 

 

My bad we've had a troll on here whos had multiple accounts and be banned loads of times who just constantly pushes a pro-Trump narrative. We're not really tribal you can say what you want and give different perspectives unless you support Trump (joke, kind of)

[b_woo]

14 minutes ago, Consept said:

My bad we've had a troll on here whos had multiple accounts and be banned loads of times who just constantly pushes a pro-Trump narrative. We're not really tribal you can say what you want and give different perspectives unless you support Trump (joke, kind of)

No worries, all good. I'm a kiwi - we are mostly easy going and pretty chill! I just wish you guys had someone of the same caliber as our leader at the helm. She does us proud. 

[Parththakkar12]

22 minutes ago, Consilience said:

Trump's brain will not connect these dots because he is not in his rational mind. This shows that his stage is prior to Orange or even Blue, it's Red.

[Forestluv]

NV update: Good news for Biden lovers. NV just released more data that expanded Biden's lead. This puts Biden up 21K votes (0.8%). A losing candidate can request a recount, yet it would be really hard to prevent the calling of a state with a 0.8% lead in which the loser requested a recount without evidence of tabulation errors. (It would be similar to Trump requesting a recount in WI). The optics of that would be awful, especially since Biden is in the stronger position. The AP and FoxNews called AZ for Biden and they don't want to retract that call. They are sitting on NV, until they are 100% sure on AZ. Calling NV for Biden would declare Biden the winner. 

Trump can request a recount in NV, yet I don't think it would be taken seriously without a recount in AZ or PA. From my POV, Trump will need a recount in AZ or PA. And there is relatively good news out of AZ - Biden just led in a new batch released from Yuma. This is a county Trump is winning by 6%. This puts him further off pace. Currently, Biden has a 1.1% lead and it's looking more and more unlikely Trump will reach the 0.1% threshold for a state-mandated recount. AZ does not allow a loser to request a recount. Yet I suppose Trump could try to get one via a lawsuit if it's under 0.5%. Yet Trump winning a lawsuit to over-ride AZ law and force a recount is not a good look. That is very different than a state like GA that will conduct an auto state-mandated recount. If Trump closes to under 0.2%, that is well within recount range - and most states would have an auto recount. In this case, the strict AZ recount laws would benefit Biden. Yet I could see a court mandating an AZ recount if PA enters a recount and Trump is within 0.5% in AZ. 

The next large data release from AZ will be about 9pm est and it will give a better idea how close Trump can get. 

My impression is that 0.5% seems to be perceived as a "reasonable" standard for a recount. 

In PA, Biden has expanded his lead to 19.5k. . . Only 1% of provisional ballots have been reported. Although they were from deeply red areas, Trump barely won them. As well, statewide provisional ballots are 0.9% of the total vote, yet over 2% of ballots in Philly are estimated to be provisional - so there are a disproportionate number of ballots in Philly. And historically, provisional ballots heavily favor Dems. So there is no reason to believe that the provisional ballots will favor Trump. It's much more likely the provisionals will favor Biden.