Leo Gura

Make Your 2020 General Election Predictions Here!

2,503 posts in this topic

Here's an interactive map you can use to make your 2020 election predictions:

https://www.270towin.com

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Here are my two predictions as of Sept 1.

Scenario #1: Biden barely squeaks out a victory, like so:

https://www.270towin.com/maps/3XGAN

Scenario #2: Biden wins solidly if he carries Florida, like so:

https://www.270towin.com/maps/KQVKm

I would bet more on scenario #1. Florida is not to be trusted.

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Here are the most important swing state poll results:

Wisconsin: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/wisconsin/

Ohio: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/ohio/

Michigan: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/michigan/

Georgia: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/georgia/

Arizona: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/arizona/

Florida: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/florida/

Iowa: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/iowa/

Minnesota: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/minnesota/

North Carolina: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/north-carolina/

Pennsylvania: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/pennsylvania/

Texas: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/texas/

I think Trump will win Texas, North Carolina, Ohio, and Georgia.

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Make your own map and post the link here with your reasoning.


You are God. You are Love. You are Infinity. You are Leo.

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Here's a pretty good analysis of how this might work.

Although I highly doubt Biden can win Texas. That is not good assumption at all.


You are God. You are Love. You are Infinity. You are Leo.

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wQxfInA.png if we are lucky... PA goes red again and it's over

fixing error... AK is red

Edited by Lyubov

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There is a decent chance Biden can win AZ. Which would create a bit of safe space.

Biden can afford to lose PA as long as he wins AZ.


You are God. You are Love. You are Infinity. You are Leo.

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@Lyubov Idaho is solid Red. Your map is screwy.


You are God. You are Love. You are Infinity. You are Leo.

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Lol, hearing you talk about mundane election polls is rich.

What about Trump not accepting the results of the election? What’s up with that.

My prediction:

2FE004B5-6566-4285-8A11-8D7AC8E78930.jpeg


''To be happy we must not be too concerned with others''.

Albert Camus

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Micheal Moore has been getting on this lately:

https://mobile.twitter.com/MMFlint/status/1299309425379901440

https://mobile.twitter.com/MMFlint/status/1300069277102465024

https://mobile.twitter.com/MMFlint/status/130006246592182272

He’s making the simple yet brilliant point that relaxing is only in Trump’s favor.

Except me, I can relax, I live in Maryland.

It’s crazy to think that after all of this shit, the Iranian General situation, his blatant corruption and violation of the emoluments clause, there are people who will still vote for them because they seldom pay attention to the news. 

Edited by Husseinisdoingfine

''To be happy we must not be too concerned with others''.

Albert Camus

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58 minutes ago, Husseinisdoingfine said:

It’s crazy to think that after all of this shit, the Iranian General situation, his blatant corruption and violation of the emoluments clause, there are people who will still vote for them because they seldom pay attention to the news. 

Don't underestimate the power of unhealthy Blue

 

Also, I thought a thread like this might pop up, so I have this article saved:

https://www.axios.com/bloomberg-group-trump-election-night-scenarios-a554e8f5-9702-437e-ae75-d2be478d42bb.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_mediu

It's about how the counting process might pan out and what that will cause Trump / the DNC to do as a result. Basically Trump will win the first night, but then lose after all the mail-in ballots are counted. This could cause him to double down on claiming victory. Important reading IMO.

 

EDIT: Here's the video from the article

 

Edited by Apparition of Jack

“All you need is Love” - John Lennon

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I say Biden carries about 330 electoral votes to Trump 190 or so.
 

Key wins for Biden; PA, MI, AZ, NM?, maybe NC, maybe Florida. Maybe Wisconsin maybe Minnesota 

 

key wins for Trunk: OHIO,Texas, Oklahoma, Georgia, don’t seem him winning much else than his base this time, but I may be wrong

 

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Believing in elections is like thinking that wrestling is real. The Winner has already been elected, and not by the population. Keep believing in the delusion.

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Trump will win, sadly. His propaganda complex is strong and rampant, and most of all... infectious. 


 You have been gifted the Golden Kappa~! 

 

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1 hour ago, Rajneeshpuram said:

Believing in elections is like thinking that wrestling is real. The Winner has already been elected, and not by the population. Keep believing in the delusion.

Conspiracy nut


''To be happy we must not be too concerned with others''.

Albert Camus

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1 minute ago, Husseinisdoingfine said:

So wait, why shouldn’t I vote by mail again?

The counting could be messed with and the longer it takes to count all the votes the more time it'll give Trump to build up a conspiracy about vote rigging.


“All you need is Love” - John Lennon

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I'd love for Trump to be crushed, but I thought the same thing would happen in 2016 and it didn't. So I'm not getting too confident in a Biden victory. But circumstances in the world are so vastly different from what they were in 2016 that that could make all the difference. However I'm really not sure whether the covid19 scenario will help or hurt Biden's chances, on one hand Trump's incompetence at handling the situation has been clear, but on the other hand the situation has divided people into opposing camps largely along political lines which might intensify people's support for Trump when they might have not otherwise because they think a democrat victory means they will lose all their libertarian freedoms and cause enforced corona vaccinations or mandatory mask wearing and stuff.

If Trump does win I think he'll still lose the popular vote again. I can't see the reverse happening though. If Biden wins I think it will be decisive. 

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18 minutes ago, eggopm3 said:

I'd love for Trump to be crushed, but I thought the same thing would happen in 2016 and it didn't. So I'm not getting too confident in a Biden victory. But circumstances in the world are so vastly different from what they were in 2016 that that could make all the difference. However I'm really not sure whether the covid19 scenario will help or hurt Biden's chances, on one hand Trump's incompetence at handling the situation has been clear, but on the other hand the situation has divided people into opposing camps largely along political lines which might intensify people's support for Trump when they might have not otherwise because they think a democrat victory means they will lose all their libertarian freedoms and cause enforced corona vaccinations or mandatory mask wearing and stuff.

If Trump does win I think he'll still lose the popular vote again. I can't see the reverse happening though. If Biden wins I think it will be decisive. 

I don't think that Covid was bad for Trump , heck I am not even sure if riots are bad for him, one for sure to early to make confident statements, 

I think Trump will do better in debates not only because he is better at them, but also because there isn't much dirt that Biden can call Trump out for that has not been already all over the place, but I am sure plenty of people will be interested to hear about Biden. 

Edited by purerogue

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