Leo Gura

Make Your 2020 General Election Predictions Here!

2,418 posts in this topic

13 minutes ago, Forestluv said:

Changing demographics is the biggest issue. Around 2004 or so, the GOP saw the writing on the wall and intentionally modified their platform to tone down white supremacy and be more inclusive. George Bush, McCain and Romney all made efforts. Yet Trump saw he could squeeze one last election if he leveraged traditional GOP platforms targeting conservative/moderate white voters. By intensifying the appeal to white grievances - Trump pulled out a lot of non-voting uneducated whites with grievances. These voters did not resonate with the "compassionate conservatism" of the neo-GOP. Yet Trump has lost moderates that were willing to give Trump a chance - thinking he was a successful businessman. 

Trump is trying to energize his base, yet it's not enough to win. And his chaotic, contradictory messaging on the election is awful for GOTV of his base. One day Trump is trying to win the election and encouraging his base to vote early and mail in. The next day he says the election and voting is fraudulent. Trump is trying to have it both ways and it's a terrible strategy. Why would a Trumper vote early if early voting is fraudulent? Why wait in line on election day if the election is rigged against you? 

Early voting data suggests Dems have a huge advantage. Trump telling his base to wait to vote on election day has a huge risk. Putting all of his eggs into the election day basket is a terrible strategy. All sorts of things can happen on election day to dissuade voters from going to the polls. In some areas, the weather will be bad. Some people will be sick on election day. Some people leave work late and are tired, they don't feel like waiting in line. Some people will have a problem pop up in their life to deal with. 

Things have gotten so bad I'd count a Conservative party that's not actively trying to undermine democracy, doesn't deny the reality of Climate change, and has an economic platform that's not just 'loot the country' as a major win for the long term prospects of our country.


I'm writing a philosophy book! Check it out at : https://7provtruths.org/

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20 minutes ago, Forestluv said:

Changing demographics is the biggest issue. Around 2004 or so, the GOP saw the writing on the wall and intentionally modified their platform to tone down white supremacy and be more inclusive. George Bush, McCain and Romney all made efforts. Yet Trump saw he could squeeze one last election if he leveraged traditional GOP platforms targeting conservative/moderate white voters. By intensifying the appeal to white grievances - Trump pulled out a lot of non-voting uneducated whites with grievances. These voters did not resonate with the "compassionate conservatism" of the neo-GOP. Yet Trump has lost moderates that were willing to give Trump a chance - thinking he was a successful businessman. 

Trump is trying to energize his base, yet it's not enough to win. And his chaotic, contradictory messaging on the election is awful for GOTV of his base. One day Trump is trying to win the election and encouraging his base to vote early and mail in. The next day he says the election and voting is fraudulent. Trump is trying to have it both ways and it's a terrible strategy. Why would a Trumper vote early if early voting is fraudulent? Why wait in line on election day if the election is rigged against you? 

Early voting data suggests Dems have a huge advantage. Trump telling his base to wait to vote on election day has a huge risk. Putting all of his eggs into the election day basket is a terrible strategy. All sorts of things can happen on election day to dissuade voters from going to the polls. In some areas, the weather will be bad. Some people will be sick on election day. Some people leave work late and are tired, they don't feel like waiting in line. Some people will have a problem pop up in their life to deal with. 

This is it right here.

Plus the uncertainty of maybe a second wave or upticks with coronavirus have people playing it safe and voting by mail (as it should be!).  I do not want to be in a coronavirus hotbox waiting in line to vote--mask or no masks.  Screw that.

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10 hours ago, Forestluv said:

Changing demographics is the biggest issue. Around 2004 or so, the GOP saw the writing on the wall and intentionally modified their platform to tone down white supremacy and be more inclusive. George Bush, McCain and Romney all made efforts. Yet Trump saw he could squeeze one last election if he leveraged traditional GOP platforms targeting conservative/moderate white voters. By intensifying the appeal to white grievances - Trump pulled out a lot of non-voting uneducated whites with grievances. These voters did not resonate with the "compassionate conservatism" of the neo-GOP. Yet Trump has lost moderates that were willing to give Trump a chance - thinking he was a successful businessman. 

Trump is trying to energize his base, yet it's not enough to win. And his chaotic, contradictory messaging on the election is awful for GOTV of his base. One day Trump is trying to win the election and encouraging his base to vote early and mail in. The next day he says the election and voting is fraudulent. Trump is trying to have it both ways and it's a terrible strategy. Why would a Trumper vote early if early voting is fraudulent? Why wait in line on election day if the election is rigged against you? 

Early voting data suggests Dems have a huge advantage. Trump telling his base to wait to vote on election day has a huge risk. Putting all of his eggs into the election day basket is a terrible strategy. All sorts of things can happen on election day to dissuade voters from going to the polls. In some areas, the weather will be bad. Some people will be sick on election day. Some people leave work late and are tired, they don't feel like waiting in line. Some people will have a problem pop up in their life to deal with. 

Also if his base sees that he is losing by a huge landslide in early polling, they might just not bother to make the effort for a lost cause. Hopefully. 

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If Biden wins the Ohio Electoral then it's essentially a good bye to Trump 

 

 


INFJ-T,ptsd,BPD, autism, anger issues

Cleared out ignore list today. 

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Talking about General John Kelly

According to CNN with Jack Tapper, he told 
friends:

“The depths of his dishonesty is just astounding to me. The dishonesty, the transactional nature of every relationship, though it’s more pathetic than anything else. He is the most flawed person I have ever met in my life.”

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37 minutes ago, Lyubov said:

“The depths of his dishonesty is just astounding to me. The dishonesty, the transactional nature of every relationship, though it’s more pathetic than anything else. He is the most flawed person I have ever met in my life.”

Lol

OF COURSE!!!


You are God. You are Truth. You are Love. You are Infinity.

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Trump held a rally tonight where he mocked wearing COVID masks 

 

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https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-threatens-to-leave-the-country-if-he-loses-to-biden?ref=home

Cool, I hope the government seizes all of his assets if he tries to leave the country, though hoping that he takes his Cult with him is probably asking a bit much.

Also I must of misjudged Biden, as I had no idea he was "worst candidate in the history of American politics".?


I'm writing a philosophy book! Check it out at : https://7provtruths.org/

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22 minutes ago, Lyubov said:

Trump held a rally tonight where he mocked wearing COVID masks 

 

lol. He makes fun of people like Biden who were wise enough to frequently wear a mask, and yet not only did Trump himself got himself sick, but also look at how many in the audience are wearing masks of various sizes themselves.

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@Hardkill@   suddenly all Trumpists have realized the importance of masks at his events. 

At least this time around, Trumpists are careful and wearing masks at his superspreader event. 

That's some change. 

4itlie.jpg

 

Edited by Preety_India

INFJ-T,ptsd,BPD, autism, anger issues

Cleared out ignore list today. 

..

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3 hours ago, Hardkill said:

lol. He makes fun of people like Biden who were wise enough to frequently wear a mask, and yet not only did Trump himself got himself sick, but also look at how many in the audience are wearing masks of various sizes themselves.

Cn9ZxU1.png

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19 hours ago, Lyubov said:

Cn9ZxU1.png

haha. Yeah, that really is one way to imagine Trump.

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Hey guys, what do you think of this TYT video on this guy's prediction on the election?

 

 

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@Hardkill I agree with Cenk.

I'm calling a Biden landslide.

See ya back here on Nov 3.


You are God. You are Truth. You are Love. You are Infinity.

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Im too traumatized from 2016 so I'm just gonna just hold on we're going home 

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14 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

@Hardkill I agree with Cenk.

I'm calling a Biden landslide.

See ya back here on Nov 3.

Alright, so that's it then. I guess that means that this entire thread or topic is over, yeah? :D

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I predict a very close election with a Trump victory and a huge scandal, bigger than in 2016. Let’s be honest & realistic, I may be wrong tho.

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6 minutes ago, Mannyb said:

I predict a very close election with a Trump victory and a huge scandal, bigger than in 2016. Let’s be honest & realistic, I may be wrong tho.

What do you base this on, with all the poles of early voting showing Biden winning with the largest percentage in election in American history?

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14 hours ago, Lyubov said:

Im too traumatized from 2016 so I'm just gonna just hold on we're going home 

Yeah, I am with you. Even though I do agree that it is very likely (~90% probability) if not extremely likely (~95%) that Trump will lose, I still feel like too afraid to believe that Biden will 100% win.

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@Jed Vassallo 1. Can we really trust polls after 2016? 2. Could these polls be made to show Biden as favorite to get people to vote for him? (As they did twice against Bernie, and perhaps once against Trump?) 3. If Biden is to win by a landslide, why are his rallies so empty? (as opposed to Trumps’, Pences’, Bernies’, and even Hillarys’ in 2016) 4. Remember Trump won’t give in easily, he’s got something planned

.

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