New War In Israel / Gaza

[Gennadiy1981]

2 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

This whole situation is like the most infuriating impossible puzzle. The more you study it, no matter which side you take, no matter how reasonable you are, no matter how nuanced you are, there is no solution.

Look everything can have a solution even a temporary one. It may not sound so politically correct but we need to understand that Middle East is not middle west, our understanding of principal and morality cannot be applicable there and should not be, it’s just different mind set and philosophies and we should respect it and accept it.

Let’s be honest, two peoples cannot exist on one land. It’s not like a huge land, it’s a size of the state of New Jersey. One has to be relocated. We can force and read morals and pay and bribe but at the end of the day it will only be blood shed and death. You can’t force love if it’s not there and you need to understand you have people who differ in every aspect there is, in race, ethnicity, language, religion, culture and etc. 

Thats the reality, I just do not see any other solutions. And frankly I don’t think there are even any. A lot of times I think maybe the Bible is correct that speaks the final war will happen over Jerusalem.

[ShaharA]

It seems that in a few months another entity will have to rule the Strip instead of Hamas, Israel will not want to stay there. Who do you think it will be? Is it really possible to create stability there without a terrorist organization developing there again?

[Vrubel]

5 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

So then get ready for a decade of war that will cost 10,000+ Israeli lives and 100,000+ Palestinians. That's what this invasion will realistically result in.

The Israeli public will never allow for such casualty rates. Israelis are the opposite of Russians in how much they care about their soldiers. Though of course, some sacrifice is necessary. The Israeli army is already testing the waters by doing limited invasions at night. As I understand the Israelis are being advised to keep it to limited operations. I have no idea how they are going to clear the tunnels, maybe with robotics, gasmasks and some special sedating gas that makes both the hostages and guards go unconscious, I really don't know if there is such a thing. The IDF must better live up to its reputation and show some fighting creativity or some new secret technology. 
 

[ShaharA]

Just now, Vrubel said:

I have no idea how they are going to clear the tunnels
 

Dogs and robotics probably, but getting inside is inevitable 

[Nivsch]

4 hours ago, Vrubel said:

 I have no idea how they are going to clear the tunnels, maybe with robotics, gasmasks and some special sedating gas that makes both the hostages and guards go unconscious, I really don't know if there is such a thing. The IDF must better live up to its reputation and show some fighting creativity or some new secret technology. 
 

Don't worry, some world corrupt organizations and BBCs will find a way to accuse Israel even if use those safe technology and only on the terrorists. 

They can only see morality up to their true subconscious level of morality, and their active efforts to find wrongs almost only in Israel's acts is an expression of their own (subconscious) pockets of support they have in their mind to the less moral side in this war.

Thats why we should listen to anybody but ourselves after what we had in october 7th.

Edited October 27, 2023 by Nivsch

[Scholar]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B8YYmrgAeqw

This is basically what Palestinian activism should look like. On the other hand, Israeli activism should be focusing solely on criticizing the Israeli far right regime and their transgressions.

 

But it is easier to wallow in victimhood and avoid taking any responsibility, so of course both sides will just add fuel to the fire.

[PurpleTree]

moscow inviting hamas 

https://youtu.be/gp-CowPYOT0?si=ea8xo7eUv_GQ9pSS

lovely

[DawnC]

16 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

At this point Israel is just carpet bombing Gaza:

https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/25/middleeast/satellite-images-gaza-destruction/index.html

The US should not be supporting this. This is not going to solve anything.

14 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

1) The US created ISIS with bad policy. Which is what Israel will also do.

2) Hamas is more complicated because Palestinians will still live in the region and still need a political solution to their situation. You have a situation there which will keep respawning radical Jihadists.

15 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

95%+ of people killed in Gaza have been civilians.

This is not going to be effective at eliminating Jihadists.

If Israel wants to commit war crimes, it throws itself under the bus. There should not be any support for nations who show reckless disregard for civilians.

Terrorists do not appear out of thin air. They are created by bad policy from the West.

These wars on terror are pointless distractions and drain of resources -- exactly what the terrorists want. Recklessly bombing civilians plays the most into terrorists hands.

The US needs to be a beacon of integrity and neutrality, not jerking off Israel.

 

5 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

So then get ready for a decade of war that will cost 10,000+ Israeli lives and 100,000+ Palestinians. That's what this invasion will realistically result in.

In the end, all that will happen is everyone will tire of war. But only after a decade of it. And we will be back to where we started. Jihadists will still hate Israel. Perhaps more than ever.

 

5 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

This whole situation is like the most infuriating impossible puzzle. The more you study it, no matter which side you take, no matter how reasonable you are, no matter how nuanced you are, there is no solution.

@Leo Gura

Some problems just don't have a solution. This is a fact of reality that people seem to always forget. It's the wrong paradigm to address this conflict. The misguided actions America took because every third president believed they would bring peace to the Middle East are enormous. Even the Israelis have difficulty grasping it. A better framework would be to try to lower the flame to a bearable condition. This is similar to fighting poverty and crime. Sometimes 'the perfect is the enemy of the good.' Peace is not a realistic possibility, and it would be beneficial to get it out of our system when it comes to the Israelis and Palestinians.

Unfortunately, while Hamas rules over any territory that is adjacent to Israel, or any civil society for that matter, the situation is clearly unbearable. Every militant capability they have will be used to target Israel in the most horrific ways. The Israelis actually had a huge misperception and thought that Hamas could be made to be a more moderate organization by improving conditions in Gaza and negotiating with them. I think that even from an American or global perspective, Hamas shouldn't stay in power. I'm not sure what your suggestion is and what you oppose. How would you propose removing them from power?

It's true that Israel is less concerned about collateral damage than in the past, but it's clearly not recklessly bombing civilians. Hamas' hold on Gaza is strong, and they are very skilled at using their strategic advantage. This is not a regular military-military fight. Their tactics involve intentionally fighting from civilian facilities and engaging in very difficult door-to-door combat while forcing their civilians to be in the crossfire as a tactic. This is what I think Israel is trying to prevent by urging the Palestinians to move south and targeting specific areas for bombing. I don't see a better militant option that would not put Israeli soldiers at high risk, and not even options that might put them at risk that would actually result in fewer civilian casualties.

The thing is, there is actually a greater and more important issue at play. The bigger picture is Iran and its attempt to gain control over the Gulf countries and the Middle East. From a global perspective, this is a very dangerous situation. Israel is the only country that is actually capable of dealing with Iran in the region (and the Iranians understand this). To my understanding, Hamas was actually putting into practice a part of Iran's strategy against Israel, which is to make life in Israel unbearable by targeting civilians and imposing a significant economic burden to the point where a western society cannot endure.

In that regard, the role of the US in the world is much more significant than just shouting for human rights like the Europeans. US is the only country that can actually ensure freedom in the world. If the Iranians and Putin can do what they are doing and get away with it, in the long run, it means death to freedom and to our way of life. From an American perspective, Israel is the most reliable ally in the region that has the capabilities and determination needed to confront Iran (Israel is actually the only ally of the US that doesn't want US soldiers to fight for them on the ground). When Israel is perceived as weak in the region or even when support from the US is wavering, this can have a major effect on the conflict with Iran. I don't think the US has to cheer for every bomb Israel throws, but unwavering support is definitely a US and global interest.

edit:

1) Sometimes radicals are simply radicals, and it doesn't really matter what the US or Israel would do or have done. Believing that Iran's regime or the Houthis in Yemen emerged solely because they were created by bad policy from the West is simplistic. Of course, bad policy can contribute, but it's not always the case. Some cultures are more susceptible to radicalism, and the question of why is more complex.

2) I think that a realistic approach to Israel and Palestine would also include: denying any militant capabilities from the Palestinians, finding creative ways to ensure continuity in Palestinian territories (to reduce day-to-day friction), targeting the pressure on Israel to the specific settlements that interrupt that continuity in an irreparable way (like Hebron, unfortunately 7/10 made it much more difficult), and focusing Palestinian aid on the Palestinian education system, which is the most problematic element at the moment.

[Leo Gura]

3 hours ago, Vrubel said:

The Israeli public will never allow for such casualty rates.

There are estimated to be 40,000 Hamas fighters. How do you plan to kill them? Even 4:1 would be a good ratio for Israel. Tanks are not going to be effective. All of Gaza will be littered with mines. It's going to be worse than Iraq.

Edited October 27, 2023 by Leo Gura

[RoerAmit]

@Leo Gura

Who do you make hateful terrorist grow to higher stage and leave their hate and ideology behind?

Where did it happened in history that we can learn from?

[Nivsch]

@Leo Gura I heard yesterday in an interview of an Israeli commander that the terrorists were in a much lower level of fighting ability and he said that he think there is an opposite correlation between the bloodthirsty-ness of a person to its fighting ability and I though there is a lot in what he said. Israel is real professional what you can only achieve from orange and above when you are more strategical, technical, consistent and disciplined.

Edited October 27, 2023 by Nivsch

[PurpleTree]

18 minutes ago, RoerAmit said:

@Leo Gura

Who do you make hateful terrorist grow to higher stage and leave their hate and ideology behind?

Where did it happened in history that we can learn from?

put them in internment/

re-education camps, like some other countries are doing

[zazen]

With spiral dynamics its easy to believe that higher stage societies that are ‘developed’ are immune to visiting or being enveloped by ‘lower’ states of being. The human is still there with the whole buffet of emotions available to it. The structure of society doesn’t mean the content (human) within the structure is any different - human nature just manifests through the lens of that structure, in that tint of spiral dynamic colour.

Just because a society is stage orange doesn't make it infallible or that you are guaranteed a win ie Taliban - Hezbollah and Hamas are much better equiped than Taliban. Israels Iron dome can only intercept 2000 at a time, Hezbolah have 150'000 rockets. They just need to over whelm the iron dome system with 2000 rockets, then can use precision missile wherever they wish in Israel.

''The Zulu army suffered anywhere from 1,000 to 3,000 killed. The battle was a decisive victory for the Zulus and caused the defeat of the first British invasion of Zululand. The British Army had suffered its worst defeat against an indigenous foe equipped with vastly inferior military technology.''

Also, the Israeli army are made up of mostly reservists. These aren't battle hardened individuals willing to confront an army of men in a tough terrain and hardened by their conditions, motivated to fight for freedom from those very hellish conditions they think Israel has put them in. 

Bibi seems to be dragging US and Nato into this to fight on his countries behalf and to entangle other powers into a proxy battle in the region. Hamas could probably be doing the same hoping Hezbollah will intervene and further possibly Iran. The extremes on both sides want more powerful players to do their fighting for them and their cause, fuelled by the military industrial complex and religious zeal of fulfilling prophecy only adding to it.

[Nivsch]

@zazen The hellish conditions are because of hamas. Israel has left gaza in 2005. The occupation paradigm doesnt work anymore.

[Breakingthewall]

Israel is one of the countries that spends the most on defense in the world, and part of that spending is on surveillance systems, the most sophisticated and effective in the world. To think that some guys broke the fence with an bulldozer and no alarm bells is completely absurd. This action has been allowed in order to begin the expulsion of the Palestinians from Israel. Only one conclusion is logical: Gaza will be completely destroyed and the survivors will be relocated to refugee camps, waiting to find some solution, that is their relocation to other countries in exchange for financial aid, and the Palestinians in west bank will know that this will be their fate at the slightest incident.

[Karmadhi]

58 minutes ago, Nivsch said:

Israel is real professional what you can only achieve from orange and above when you are more strategical, technical, consistent and disciplined.

Yes but also Hamas soldiers are suicidal because they think they go to heaven if they die fighting Israel.

They will not hesitate to fill themselves with dynamite and go behind a Israeli tank and blow it up.

Such an enemy puts a lot of strain into the morale of a solider and unfortunately it results in them becoming reckless even if they are normally professional. Also Hamas soldiers are used to hardships because they grew up in a hell zone, Israeli soldiers are first world spoiled boys who never had any hardships in their lives.

Combine this with hunderds of kilomiters of tunnels, very good knowledge of every street and a sea of rubble and it will not be fun for Israel.

If civilians are in there then it will be even worse since Israel will have to show some sort of restraint which Hamas can utilize in their advantage.

If civilians are evacuated it will be Iwo Jima 2.0, if not then Okinawa 10x.

Of course Israel will win in the end but it will result in heavy casualities and the ones that survive will be traumatized for life (same way many US soldiers were after Vietnam).

Lastly keep in mind Hesboullah can invade from the North and they are stronger than Hamas. So Israel cannot leave its flank open and will need to keep reserves there. They cannot put in Gaza all they got.

Edited October 27, 2023 by Karmadhi

[Starlight321]

57 minutes ago, Nivsch said:

@Leo Gura I heard yesterday in an interview of an Israeli commander that the terrorists were in a much lower level of fighting ability and he said that he think there is an opposite correlation between the bloodthirsty-ness of a person to its fighting ability and I though there is a lot in what he said. Israel is real professional what you can only achieve from orange and above when you are more strategical, technical, consistent and disciplined.

I don't think so. People who think they get an extra pet on the back by god for being a mertyr are the most fearless fighters and they are well trained. That was one of the reasons isis could counquer so much territory, even from other jihadists, in such a short time.

[Breakingthewall]

18 minutes ago, Karmadhi said:

Such an enemy puts a lot of strain into the morale of a solider and unfortunately it results in them becoming reckless even if they are normally professional. Also Hamas soldiers are used to hardships because they grew up in a hell zone, Israeli soldiers are first world spoiled boys who never had any hardships in their lives.

Sure, If Israel exposes its soldiers it is stupid, and is the opposite . The moment there begin to be casualties, it will devastate the city, leaving it as a site for new construction where not even a rat can survive, pushing the population towards the south. They will say that there was no other option, which is true, and Gaza is over.

[Vrubel]

2 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

There are estimated to be 40,000 Hamas fighters. How do you plan to kill them? Even 4:1 would be a good ratio for Israel. Tanks are not going to be effective. All of Gaza will be littered with mines. It's going to be worse than Iraq.

10.000 IDF causalities are not acceptable. Israel is currently calculating, planning and testing the waters. It's now up to the IDF to show its worth and to hit Hamas maximally while having minimal casualties. This war might take years and might expand to Lebanon. Maybe Hamas can survive by making hostage deals. Israel will definitely try to take some of the tunnels and see how it goes and adapt its strategy. 
 

Edited October 27, 2023 by Vrubel

[BlueOak]

2 hours ago, Nivsch said:

@zazen The hellish conditions are because of hamas. Israel has left gaza in 2005. The occupation paradigm doesnt work anymore.

You are looking at an insular box with no way in or out, almost the entire population reduced to living off aid, cutting off all the history till that point and then saying. Ahah its nothing to do with Israel. It has something to do with every single nation that is in the region and has been in the region. 

Blame will never end this. Us vs them will never end this. This will never end unless isolationism and division ends, and cooperation begins. Right now more than ever it's time to humanize. Yes with the people you hate the most. That doesn't mean X, or telling israel to do Y. It does mean looking at another person and seeing them as human, a person. Even if they hate everything you are, doing this means you are using logic not emotion. Then you can effectively tackle the problem, rather than Israel blanket bomb two million people which is growing the problem far beyond their ability to perceive it.

Yes it's a hell of an uphill struggle for anyone in that region to even start towards that goal, without getting themselves killed by those running on pure emotion. I have the luxury of sitting far away and telling you how other countries ended their conflicts or grew them. So this goes for all the outside actors in this too, every one of them across the world, and there are many now not one or two. I will also admit my first emotional reaction to seeing all this was Israel should occupy gaza, before my mind started to analyze my emotions, the variables, and the developing situation. So I understand Israel, and I understand Hamas's actions have consequences, Israel has to see that growing these consequences further than they need to go is foolish and will lead to their own suffering magnified.

How would I have handled it. Covertly. Special forces. Seemed the best solution, professional soldiers working off intelligence. Would have been much easier to handle the political situation, probably recovered more hostages, and it doesn't take away further action if it's required. I know the perception of safety had to be upheld, and the violence answered, I get that, but this was using the most extreme approach first which was a mistake.