Elon Musk Twitter Trainwreck Mega-Thread

[axiom]

Let's say Twitter Blue on-boards 5% conversion of 300m users = 15m users.

15,000,000 users X $8 (subscription fee) = $120,000,000 per month / $1.44bn per year

In 2021, Twitter made $4.5bn from advertising and $0.5bn from data licensing.

So in total, revenues are currently approx $6bn per year.

Employee overheads are now reduced by 50% (could be more)

Edited November 9, 2022 by axiom

[Leo Gura]

29 minutes ago, Tahuti said:

How about we just wait until something happens. As of now these predictions and theories as well as assumptioms are far fetched, arousing various emotions in people. Have a cautious realistic yet optimistic outlook. 

Didn't you warn againt an "us vs them" - narrative?

What hapoened to your "love" Leo?

People have been going crazy on this topic for months. And Musk feeds into it.

I wish he succeeds. But I have my doubts. I don't hate the guy.

9 minutes ago, axiom said:

5% conversion of 300m users = 15m users decide to buy Twitter Blue.

15,000,000 users X $8 (subscription fee) = $120,000,000 per month / $1.44bn per year

(not accounting for advertising or growth)

There is only something like 300k Twitter users with a blue checkmark. Even if he converts them at 100%, it will be a drop in the bucket.

There is no way that 15M users will buy Twitter Blue. So your calculation is off by two orders of magnitude. Must will be lucky to have 300k paid subs.

Edited November 9, 2022 by Leo Gura

[axiom]

@Leo Gura

He has democratised Twitter Blue, so total conversions account for the entire user base, not only the existing checkmarked users. Estimates of the total user base seem to vary, anything between 280m to 450m.

A conversion rate of 5% seems reasonable. But even if it is half of this, that is still $700m from Twitter Blue subs + approx $5bn from advertising and data licensing (again not accounting for growth) 

Edited November 9, 2022 by axiom

[thisintegrated]

Interesting.  So the old corrupt managers were charging up to $15k for the verification.

And apparently twitter usage is way up.  Noone's leaving.

[Thought Art]

@thisintegrated omg “The Esablishment” just ignore everything he does 

[Leo Gura]

2 hours ago, axiom said:

@Leo Gura

He has democratised Twitter Blue, so total conversions account for the entire user base, not only the existing checkmarked users. Estimates of the total user base seem to vary, anything between 280m to 450m.

A conversion rate of 5% seems reasonable. But even if it is half of this, that is still $700m from Twitter Blue subs + approx $5bn from advertising and data licensing (again not accounting for growth) 

I'll believe it when I see it.

[StarStruck]

 

[Girzo]

@KH2 he is not that stupid, that's true, just the reason he has bought the platform is not to earn coconuts by selling blue pngs. He now has a control over a major media channel.

[nuwu]

monkey has more bananas than you, leo. it's over, you are proven clueless about reality. @KH2

[thepixelmonk]

47 minutes ago, nuwu said:

monkey has more bananas than you, leo. it's over, you are proven clueless about reality. @KH2

LOL couldn't have said it any better

[Danioover9000]

@Leo Gura 

   Here's an interesting take on this situation:

 

[Hatfort]

Elon Musk is totally positioned in the conservative sphere, not only economically, but in the culture war context that has been happening for the last 6 years. He is more aligned with right-wing users and trolls and they have embraced him as their savior. Twitter is his business now, so whether he wants it or not, his political views are linked to the platform he owns in the eyes of the public. It's probably more than mere perception in my opinion, it's gonna reflect one way or another. I go further than Beau of the 5th column in his video, advertisers are not only associated with the messages and content people may or may not put in there, they are associated with the platform itself, which right now is owned by a billionaire rightwinger.

Twitter's moderation team was working quite well before, there's an amount of shitholeness that a platform needs to keep in line before its users leave. For those who criticize it, Elon says he has kept it as it was, so go and complain to him now about censorship and cancel culture. Their blue verification mark was another thing that was working well. I understand Elon wants to monetize somehow, but be careful about not screwing what's fine, I'd tell him if wanted him to succeed, which I don't.

I've left Twitter completely, I don't want to be part of a communication platform owned by that man. He did nothing to build it and its success in the first place, he may have been an entrepreneur in the past, with a little help from daddy's money, don't forget, but this is not the case. I hope he fails and goes bankrupt, that would be beautiful to see.

[Danioover9000]

@Hatfort

8 minutes ago, Hatfort said:

Elon Musk is totally positioned in the conservative sphere, not only economically, but in the culture war context that has been happening for the last 6 years. He is more aligned with right-wing users and trolls and they have embraced him as their savior. Twitter is his business now, so whether he wants it or not, his political views are linked to the platform he owns in the eyes of the public. It's probably more than mere perception in my opinion, it's gonna reflect one way or another. I go further than Beau of the 5th column in his video, advertisers are not only associated with the messages and content people may or may not put in there, they are associated with the platform itself, which right now is owned by a billionaire rightwinger.

Twitter's moderation team was working quite well before, there's an amount of shitholeness that a platform needs to keep in line before its users leave. For those who criticize it, Elon says he has kept it as it was, so go and complain to him now about censorship and cancel culture. Their blue verification mark was another thing that was working well. I understand Elon wants to monetize somehow, but be careful about not screwing what's fine, I'd tell him if wanted him to succeed, which I don't.

I've left Twitter completely, I don't want to be part of a communication platform owned by that man. He did nothing to build it and its success in the first place, he may have been an entrepreneur in the past, with a little help from daddy's money, don't forget, but this is not the case. I hope he fails and goes bankrupt, that would be beautiful to see.

   He was doing fine with his SpaceX and Tesla, why go any further to other ventures?

[Hatfort]

1 minute ago, Danioover9000 said:

   He was doing fine with his SpaceX and Tesla, why go any further to other ventures?

Having control over the media and communication platforms is a huge form of power, he saw a chance to buy Twitter and went for it. As it was, it wasn't the easiest platform to control, with millions of users talking shit for free. It is not going to be really free and democratic anymore, you have to pay 96$ per year to have the full experience of freedom of speech. But there's the financial factor too, he is in big debt now, so he has to do something about it. I don't know what's gonna happen, but for now, I don't like it.

[Tyler Robinson]

23 minutes ago, Hatfort said:

Having control over the media and communication platforms is a huge form of power, he saw a chance to buy Twitter and went for it. As it was, it wasn't the easiest platform to control, with millions of users talking shit for free. It is not going to be really free and democratic anymore, you have to pay 96$ per year to have the full experience of freedom of speech. But there's the financial factor too, he is in big debt now, so he has to do something about it. I don't know what's gonna happen, but for now, I don't like it.

I don't think he is going to be successful with it. 

 

[Danioover9000]

   Also, a related gem from Leo:

 

[Danioover9000]

   A

 

Edited November 10, 2022 by Danioover9000

[Null Simplex]

[Tyler Robinson]

1 minute ago, Null Simplex said:

Please this is making me laugh so hard... Jesus! 

 

[Danioover9000]

@Null Simplex

1 hour ago, Null Simplex said:

   Please tell me they are fake accounts? Deep fake A.I accounts?