Serotoninluv

Trump is Not Well

190 posts in this topic

3 minutes ago, Aakash said:

@Serotoninluv what statistics or theory do you rely on to make your claims about re-election? 

If I was to make a prediction, I would base it on a combination of statistics such as polling and bookies as my own analysis. And intuition would factor in. 

For example, Biden has been consistently leading the polls. I would place him in the top tier. However, I would not place him as the favorite. Biden's support is soft name recognition. Warren is putting a lot of effort into forming grassroots support and a broad coalition. Bernie has super strong support. Biden supporters are low knowledge and soft. Bernie supporters are among the most politically knowledgeable and are rock solid.

Plus, Biden will likely lose the first two states (Iowa and New Hampshire) allowing another candidate to gain momentum. Obama was a big underdog to Clinton, yet he won Iowa and got a huge burst of momentum. Lastly, Biden's cognition is on the decline. Most people are not paying attention to the race this far out - once they do, I don't think they will like Biden. Even though he is currently ahead in the polls, I would put his chances at 30% of winning the nomination.

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@Serotoninluv okay so you are taking a cognitive standpoint as well as the ground covered by each candidate.

Then you are using polls to assess the likely outcome and intuition to guess 

would it not be as simple as assessing the cognitive function of all swing states and assuming that in the past two years with trumps election, all swing states have developed and therefore are likely to choose a higher cognitive candidate based on the conditions of thier economy of the state. What are the polls for the swing states? 

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Just now, Aakash said:

@Serotoninluv 

Then you are using polls to assess the likely outcome and intuition to guess 

I wouldn't say "intuition to guess". It is deeper than that. And it's not just polls. For example, I am noticing things in Biden that I don't believe are getting picked up in the polls.

2 minutes ago, Aakash said:

@Serotoninluv would it not be as simple as assessing the cognitive function of all swing states and assuming that in the past two years with trumps election, all swing states have developed and therefore are likely to choose a higher cognitive candidate based on the conditions of thier economy of the state. What are the polls for the swing states? 

Swing states have evolved, yet one needs to consider the time frame. At the population level, four years is often not a lot of time for social evolution. Yet, social evolution can be rapid at times as well.

In terms of development, I would say that there has been greater awareness for many, yet there are also underlying dynamics that remain. 

Most polls have Trump underwater in swing states. It is not looking good at this point. Yet Trump can be good at manipulating narratives and emotions.  He is essentially a bully and bullies don't go down easy. Imagine a bully in high school running for class president. He is unpopular, yet he is the biggest bully in school. Many students are afraid of him and many students believe the bully is protecting them. And the bully will bully the other candidate. There is a decent chance he wins.

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@Serotoninluv I see, interesting. i agree that four years haven't had a chance to change any social structures yet, but some changes have had to be made on a fundamental level. 

those things that polls aren't picking up, do you believe they will be shone to light in the nearer to the time ? 

interesting from a conscious point of view, i've thought about reforms themselves, but i haven't thought about development into progress against resistance of low consciousness itself. 

 

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6 hours ago, whoareyou said:

LOL

According to bookies, Trump is a  FAVORITE to get re-elected:

https://gyazo.com/263d8632889565f653190bae11487fec

With all due respect, I doubt that you know more than the bookies. I think that your strong dislike of trump is blinding you of the ability to see the situation as it is (self-bias). 

LOL


"Be melting snow. Wash yourself of yourself." -- Rumi

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10 hours ago, Serotoninluv said:

In September 2019, Warren is at 4:1 to win the 2020 election.

In September 2015, Trump was at 18:1 to win the 2016 election. 

The odds are based on public perception of gamblers. I think this is an interesting metric, yet I would not say the public perception of gamblers is the best metric. As well, it is waaaaay to far out from the election. I doubt much money has been placed, thus the sample size is small.

Personally, I would put Trump's chances of winning at about 45%. Yet I would not be surprised if Trump gets blownout. He could lose big, lose small or win small - yet Trump won't win big. The best he can do is match his 2016 performance (in which he lost the popular vote by 3 million votes).

I also think there is about a 10% chance Trump doesn't even make it to the election. 

I agree with your assessment. My point was, that Leo's opinion that Trump stands no chance of winning is very absurd.

 

Edited by whoareyou

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40 minutes ago, whoareyou said:

I agree with your assessment. My point was, that Leo's opinion that Trump stands no chance of winning is very absurd.

I said he has a small chance of winning, not no chance. I give him 10% chance.


"Be melting snow. Wash yourself of yourself." -- Rumi

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16 hours ago, Serotoninluv said:

That is a binary category which will get called out on the conscious politics subforum. 

A binary construct such as "socialist vs. non-socialist" is hyper dualistic and simple. One step up in complexity is a continuum of degree from socialist to non-socialist. As well, "socialist vs. capitalist" is also hyper dualistic. There are many different forms of integration between socialism and capitalism. The U.S. is a hybrid of socialist components as well as capitalist components. The conversation is not about "socialist vs. capitalist". It is about the relative balance between socialism and capitalism. No one in the U.S. is advocating for pure socialism or pure capitalism.

Also, there are evolutionary levels of socialism. Old school dictatorial socialism is at a blue level. Bernie is two full conscious levels higher into Green democratic socialism. 

I should have been more clear about what I was attempting to convey.  I understand the differences in forms of socialism.  I was interpreting what the impressions are to the average voter, because most do not understand the differences.  Bernie and Warren talk about some revolutionary policy changes, in which, I don't think the average voter resonates with.  This is where the term Socialism may make some of the Centrist Democrats nervous.

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3 hours ago, Bodigger said:

I should have been more clear about what I was attempting to convey.  I understand the differences in forms of socialism.  I was interpreting what the impressions are to the average voter, because most do not understand the differences.  Bernie and Warren talk about some revolutionary policy changes, in which, I don't think the average voter resonates with.  This is where the term Socialism may make some of the Centrist Democrats nervous.

Gotcha.

I would agree that most Rebublicans want to label Bernie and Warren as "socialists" in an "either / or" frame. That is, a person is either a socialist or a non-socialist. This is a very simple frame that eliminates all the nuances of socialism and capitalism. It is very easy to communicate to a populace. "Socialism is bad. Venezuela. Warren". It would resonate most strongly with those at a Blue stage that prefer to think in "either / or" terms. To amplify the effect, fear is used as leverage.

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On 10/09/2019 at 0:18 PM, This is the end said:

It even baffles me that Joe Biden is so popular after behaving in this manner. View count of the video: 2,5 million times. 

Obama's Vice President. Glaring AF . . .


We are all one spark, eyes full of wonder

“Take the lowest place, and you shall reach the highest.” 

“In the monastery of your heart, you have a temple where all Buddhas unite.” - Milarepa 

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8 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

I said he has a small chance of winning, not no chance. I give him 10% chance.

I know exactly what you meant, and 10% is extremely low - it is a very absurd claim to make. 

(Go and read Sertotoninluv's analysis - I think it's the most accurate that I seen here)

If you are so sure of yourself, would you be willing to put your money where your mouth is? 

How about 3 to 1 against Trump winning(a bet on any candidate that he would face)? Should be easy money for you in this case.

Edited by whoareyou

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11 minutes ago, whoareyou said:

Go and read Sertotoninluv's analysis - I think it's the most accurate that I seen here

Perhaps we can award a certified Actualized.org medallion of bad-ass Wisdom to commemorate this. . . O.oxD9_9

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On 9/10/2019 at 4:50 PM, whoareyou said:

LOL

According to bookies, Trump is a  FAVORITE to get re-elected:

https://gyazo.com/263d8632889565f653190bae11487fec

With all due respect, I doubt that you know more than the bookies. I think that your strong dislike of trump is blinding you of the ability to see the situation as it is (self-bias). 

Right now odds are -115 vs -115 Democratic Party President vs Republican Party President overall, I would be surprised if Trump won though.  Turnout for anti-Trumps should be much higher.

Edited by SerpaeTetra

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9 hours ago, SerpaeTetra said:

Right now odds are -115 vs -115 Democratic Party President vs Republican Party President overall, I would be surprised if Trump won though.  Turnout for anti-Trumps should be much higher.

Yes it's basically at 50-50 at the moment, while Leo put Trump chance's at 10%. 

My offer still stands, but as you can see, Leo is not willing to put his money where his mouth is. 

 

Edited by whoareyou

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Trump is not doing well because he has reached a plateau in his life long ago. He thinks that by becoming president he'll solve the problem. Nope, he's learning the hard way. Deep down what he's looking for and what everyone else is looking for is this:

I still think this is Leo's best video. What this video means imo is, you did the best visualizations and experiences in your life and you actually reflect it out by your actions. Everyone can see what you stand for. You dared to make all the bold turning points in your life. For example, Gandhi never ran for political office of any kind, and yet his face is on every currency bill in India. That's how much of an impact he had.

Yes, you said that Gandhi wasn't enlightened in this video. I agree. I never heard him speak of enlightenment, and I agree that this makes his journey/life purpose even more inspiring. He didn't need this wisdom to fully self-actualize and to have such an impact in the world. I think a person like him would have to be careful if he was enlightened. He would have to be careful how he pass on that wisdom. It's one thing to self-actualize and another thing to pass on the message properly so that it doesn't get misinterpreted and maybe turned into dogma. The combination of both self-actualization with enlightenment is of great inspiration to see in real life, esp in our modern times. It's very rare to reach such levels.

Btw, I heard somewhere that Trump boasted that he's like Lincoln. Did he? O.o

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@Leo Gura (apologies for getting partisan to any non-Bernie supporters reading this) How do you think Bernie could get the Democratic nomination? Right now it seems like the MSM is coalescing around Warren and she's picking up a lot of the failed centrist candidate's voters too, while Bernie is being deliberately ignored. I saw a while ago you betting someone that Bernie would win the election, and I feel silly for saying this but this is what I've been basing the last few months of my political analysis around. Now, I'm not so sure. What do you make the situation?

Edited by Apparition of Jack

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On 9/25/2019 at 10:10 AM, Apparition of Jack said:

@Leo Gura (apologies for getting partisan to any non-Bernie supporters reading this) How do you think Bernie could get the Democratic nomination? Right now it seems like the MSM is coalescing around Warren and she's picking up a lot of the failed centrist candidate's voters too, while Bernie is being deliberately ignored. I saw a while ago you betting someone that Bernie would win the election, and I feel silly for saying this but this is what I've been basing the last few months of my political analysis around. Now, I'm not so sure. What do you make the situation?

It's certainly possible that Warren steals his votes.

I see a big problem with Warren and Bernie splitting the progressive votes, giving Biden the nomination.

But also keep in mind that it's too early right now. Polls don't mean much yet.

Bernie will win the election against Trump. But will he even get to face Trump? That's a big IF. Biden and Warren are both stronger than I hoped in the polls.

When I endorsed Bernie I didn't even know Biden would run. I was hoping he wouldn't. Biden really has no business running in this election. He's clearly just doing it because he's got nothing better to do.


"Be melting snow. Wash yourself of yourself." -- Rumi

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In regards to Bernie and Warren I don't think there are enough people in the middle to support a win against Trump.  On the other hand, if Biden is the nominee, I think many of the Bernie and Warren supporters will sit at home.

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