Geromekevin

Leo is Wrong About Trump - Accountability Predictions

290 posts in this topic

Posted (edited)

Disclaimer: My private politics do not align with Republicans (/ Trump) or Dems (/ Bernie - I like him the most of the current candidates).

A good model of the world is able to predict. I'd like for Leo (and people reading this) to put some skin in the game and do make predictions. We can keep track here, learn together and adjust our models according to the data. Accountability and direct experience will teach us.

I just read "How Nazis Win Elections" by Leo in his blog. I'm German, I watched parts of both videos. What Trump and Hitler are saying and how they say is, is totally different. Besides Trump has condemned Nazis countless times (see here for example about Charlottesville). I think Leo is wrong saying that Trump is a Nazi or that many of his followers are.

So, here are my predictions:

  • Trump will get re-elected. Probability: 98%. Reason / Filter: I'm confident he gets reelected simply for the fact that in American history almost all presidents got two terms.
  • Trump will only serve two terms. Probability: 98%. Reason / Filter: Trump is neither a dictator nor a Nazi. He has condemned Nazis several times. In my filter he views himself as an American and respects the constitution. Therefore, he won't take over the government and rule as a dictator.
  • After Trump, a democrat will get elected. Probality: 80%. Reason / Filter: My first two predictions combine into this one. I think history will repeat and power will switch again.
  • There will only be skirmishes, no wet (= many guns) street fights. Probability: 75%. Reason / Filter: Republicans like use weapons to defend themselves. Unless the media turns the population against each other, there will only be small fist fights at ralleys and some major fist fights at demonstrations - just like in the previous elections. I disagree with Leos take "There will likely be blood." if that means there will be heavy fights. I can only see heavy fights happen if both sides the media demonize each other significantly more.

 

Let me know what you think and what your predictions are. Let's be accountable and keep score here.

Edited by Geromekevin
Bad english

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I didn't say Trump or his followers are Nazis.

You missed the deeper point.


"Be melting snow. Wash yourself of yourself." -- Rumi

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Agree on the re-election and and 2 terms.

For a lot of people it was a distaste for the Clintons that won him votes. White water,Vince Foster,The leaked emails,Bills deviancy,the dnc,Hilary's heath 

The fact we had Bushs and Clintons in there for so long it made people fell like it was very corrupt and almost dynastic.

40 minutes ago, Geromekevin said:

There will only be skirmishes, no wet (= many guns) street fights. Probability: 75%. Reason / Filter: Republicans like use weapons to defend themselves. Unless the media turns the population against each other, there will only be small fist fights at ralleys and some major fist fights at demonstrations - just like in the previous elections. I disagree with Leos take "There will likely be blood." if that means there will be heavy fights. I can only see heavy fights happen if both sides the media demonize each other significantly more.

Im not for violence but No one is gonna do shit on a mass scale. The media has made sure of this. 

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45 minutes ago, Geromekevin said:

A good model of the world is able to predict. 

Machine learning/AI models can predict waaaaay better than you can. Are they good models too?

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23 minutes ago, Geromekevin said:

@Leo Gura  Could you please elaborate?

Trump is rallying mindless people to gain power. That's all this is.

"What good fortune, for those in power, that people do not think." -- Hitler


"Be melting snow. Wash yourself of yourself." -- Rumi

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Posted (edited)

@Leo Gura agreed.

All he was doing was stroking his own ego while demonizing and demoralizing his opponents which only fueled the mindless masses to rally behind him even more.

It's sad to watch.

 

Edited by Inliytened1

We must not cease from exploration and at the end of all our exploring will be to arrive at the place where we began and to know the place for the first time.       --T.S Eliot

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2 hours ago, Geromekevin said:

Could you please elaborate?

Trump is more evolved than Hitler. Hitler was very unhealthy BLUE, whilst Trump is very unhealthy ORANGE.


"It’s a good one, it just isn’t real.” — Byron Katie

 

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20 minutes ago, How to be wise said:

Trump is more evolved than Hitler. Hitler was very unhealthy BLUE, whilst Trump is very unhealthy ORANGE.

Orange and Red.

2 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

"What good fortune, for those in power, that people do not think." -- Hitler

Lol, ignorance going full circle. Hitler smirking at humanity's unconsciousness.

Oh ego, you are so good at deceiving us. ;)

 


 What the future holds for you depends on your state of consciousness now.  Eckhart Tolle

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Out of the millions who voted for trump, likely the most consciously developed individual in that group, would have been at quite a high level of consious development. Can you consider Trump from this persons point of view and ask why he/she chose to Vote for him?

What reasons would an individual have for voting for trump beyond them just being a member of the unthinking, gullible, selfish, undeveloped rabble...? 

Where might identity come into it when looked at from the point of view of a threatened identity?

what do incidents such as the Jussie Smollett case point towards in American/western culture? Does it point towards certain cultural assumptions, possible double standards?

Is it OK for Black people to express collective interest? Is it OK for the white people to express collective interest? Does this question trigger you in any particular direction? Is it something in the question or something in your mind? What does that mean?

what is bigotry for example?

 

 

 

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Posted (edited)

29 minutes ago, Akira said:

What reasons would an individual have for voting for trump beyond them just being a member of the unthinking, gullible, selfish, undeveloped rabble...?

I think you're overestimating the level of development of most people. Even most Democrat voters are very unthinking, gullible and selfish (although generally less so than Republicans.)

A successful, relatively-tolerant Harvard educated New England businessman can still fall pray to his own (and to his culture's) ego. "I voted for Trump because he brought mojo back to America! And yeah, I'm not so hot on all the sexist and racial stuff, but come on, who here hasn't said embarrassing things like that? We're all human, I think his heart is in the right place."

See all the hoops and jumps the ego is going through to justify voting for an aggressive, racist, sexist devil for president? You have to be extremely careful with all the "logic" and "reasons" you use to defend any of your political worldviews. You will be tricked by the ego.

Edited by Apparation of Jack

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Does bigotry and scapegoating  move in many directions? Could this lead an otherwise “relatively developed” individual to feel threatened, unfairly treated, stereotyped? 

Would it be possible for a stage yellow black person to take his racial identity into account when voting if racial bigotry exists; and would that be OK?

Would it be possible for a stage yellow white person to take his racial identity into account when voting if racial bigotry exists; and would that be OK?

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Posted (edited)

Could a developed person, sensing a rise in the public's appetite for a nationalistic leader, vote strategically for Trump in 2016, thereby satisfying republicans in the short term while the economy was relatively stable, so that by the time a recession hit and people wanted a change in leadership direction, the pendulum was more likely to swing back left again rather than giving someone like Trump the excuse of hardship for which to blame outsiders?

This seems unlikely to me as two terms is probable and is long enough for Trump to do more damage but is just a thought. I've never met anyone who claims to have voted like this.

Edited by Dan502

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5 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

Trump is rallying mindless people to gain power.

The moment I read this, it finally clicked... I realized that real visionary leadership is leadership that inspires other people to think critically and more consciously. That’s what creates real collective change. Motivating individuals that empower them to take on greater concern than just their petty life...

I think this just helped me clarify my life purpose. 

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I think there's at least two ways to be looking at the United States' political system and goals for the future. For a country to stay stable long term, financial and economic stability matter more to some people (Trump supporters) then the comfort of citizens who feel unheard or oppressed by Trumps leadership in this short term (4 or 8 year) period of his presidency. What I mean by this is that there are a large portion of citizens in this country that are deciding that it is okay for someone who does have his orange personality type to rule at this time to assure the chance a a stable future for this the U.S. And that there can be a chance later on to work on social issues. Assuming that the masses that have voted for and will vote for him in this next election are "people that do not think" is naive because in their own view they are seeing a different picture. Yes there are mindless followers, but it is absolutely the same way on the Left too. A huge percentage of this country Is mindless which is tragic in itself. If you need/would like a reference, I'm attaching a Vice video link on black members of society on both sides of the political spectrum making points towards their own belief of what's best right now. This video is more impactful to some people because of the stigma there is around African Americans/POC choosing to vote for him. So listen to their thoughts and then help me understand that the Trump supporters in this conversation truly are people who can't think for themselves/know what's right in their own way. 

Now, the second way I can think of to look at what's best for this country, is way more green in perspective, but its focusing on Trumps moral character, which if the job he was elected into was solely based on how good of a person he was, then there is no way he would have been elected. And honestly, there is no good argument saying that he is a man we should be proud of to be in charge of us, though some people on the far right do make him out to be one. A lot of people believe we need somebody who cares about who they hurt, and at the very least has enough maturity to not say anything and everything that's on his mind. Thats absolutely fair, his mannerisms genuinely do make the United States look like a joke. The outrage is absolutely valid. His personality, privilege, gender, race, and many other things are absolutely strengthening the divide that this country already has. And for people who are more worried about the social issues over the economic ones, then he IS the issue. Whats the point of having a financially secure country if we're at war with each other over this one man?

My final thought on this is that either way, both sides have a point and until we don't have such a strong/extreme two party system where you only have a chance of winning an election by picking a side to run with (having a democratic and republican candidate) and depending on financial help from that party, we will always have an imperfect president, because nobody who is only republican or only democrat will be able to actually bring this country together. 

But yeah, I just think everybody should be aware before assuming that people who have opposite beliefs of you are mindless and don't know what they are talking about.

Heres the video but they're are also a lot more if you actually want to pursue understanding other points of view :) https://youtu.be/IVIoC5ROaHk

 

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5 hours ago, kieranperez said:

The moment I read this, it finally clicked... I realized that real visionary leadership is leadership that inspires other people to think critically and more consciously. That’s what creates real collective change. Motivating individuals that empower them to take on greater concern than just their petty life...

I think this just helped me clarify my life purpose. 

To help you deepen that insight, there are basically two kinds of leadership:

  1. Rally people towards selfishness using fear
  2. Rally people towards selflessness using love

It really is that simple. Of course there are many degrees of both. Most leadership is somewhere in the middle. Exceptional leadership is #2. And #2 is so rare precisely because is cannot be faked. The leader must lead by example by himself being selfless and loving, which is impossible for a big ego to do. Which is why human history is filled with examples of such terrible leaders. But also a few exceptional ones. Exceptional #2 leaders become deified as gods. Because they literally must be God-like to lead that way. Jesus, Buddha, Mahavira, Muhammad, Gandhi, MLK, etc. Unconscious people are incapable of such leadership nor are they capable of electing such people into positions of power. Those who get elected tend to be the most ambitious, ruthless, and manipulative ones. Rarely a selfless person will get elected, but he will quickly be demonized and kicked out of power by the selfish people who feel threatened by his selflessness.

The thing that selfish people hate the most is displays of selflessness. Because it makes them look bad.


"Be melting snow. Wash yourself of yourself." -- Rumi

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4 hours ago, Emmalee said:

For a country to stay stable long term, financial and economic stability matter more to some people (Trump supporters) then the comfort of citizens who feel unheard or oppressed

But that's the sick twisted irony of this whole situation. Trump is financially irresponsible so electing him reduces economic stability in the same way Bush crashed the economy with deregulation & tax cuts.

Trump's tariffs, tax cuts, and deregulation hurt many of the poorest people.

The people who vote for Trump are mindless precisely in the sense that they have an economic ideology which ends up shooting itself in the foot. They assume that unfettered capitalism will solve all problems (as their ideology promises them), but this just isn't the case because society and the economy are complex systems which work in counter-intuitive ways.

People do not vote for Trump due to economics. They vote for him based on their gut feeling, because they resonate with his values and level of consciousness. Economics is a retroactive rationalization. The economy was improving and doing well under Obama. This is irrelevant to the Trump voter because economics is just an excuse. What drives them is their stage of cognitive and moral development. Don't let their retroactive rationalizations fool you. They themselves do not actually understand why they voted for Trump or are attracted to him. What they tell themselves are pleasant stories.

It is very important to see through these stories and excuses.

The poorest people actually voted more for Hilary than Trump. Trump's voters are in it for the culture war. Which is why Trump and Fox News are always playing up the culture war. Trump voters do not have a keen sense of policy. A vote for Trump is really a way for people who detest liberalism to spit in the eye of liberals. That's the whole emotional appeal of Trump. Trump is a "fuck you" to the "global elites". But of course the sick irony is that Trump is the fattest, greediest global elite there is because he loves money, sex, fame, power, and success no matter the cost.

Poor people voting for a man who has a golden toilet in his house and lost $400 million dollars of daddy's money is the devil's sickest joke.


"Be melting snow. Wash yourself of yourself." -- Rumi

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13 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

Because they literally must be God-like to lead that way. Jesus, Buddha, Mahavira, Muhammad, Gandhi, MLK, etc.

Was MLK really enlightened? I’m not questioning his good leadership, but the book Spiral dynamics says that he was BLUE/orange, the existing phase of BLUE.


"It’s a good one, it just isn’t real.” — Byron Katie

 

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7 minutes ago, How to be wise said:

Was MLK really enlightened? I’m not questioning his good leadership, but the book Spiral dynamics says that he was BLUE/orange, the existing phase of BLUE.

I didn't say he was enlightened. I said God-like. God-like comes in many degrees and is relative to one's era and culture.

Also don't conflate Spiral stages with enlightenment. Many Zen masters in Japan or yogis in India are enlightened but only at stage Blue of the Spiral.

You don't have to be enlightened to be a good #2 leader. Bernie Sanders is a good example. He's far from enlightened but he is more God-like (i.e., selfless & compassionate) than most politicians of his time.

Nuance, nuance, nuance.


"Be melting snow. Wash yourself of yourself." -- Rumi

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Posted (edited)

@Leo Gura

11 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

Trump is rallying mindless people to gain power. That's all this is.

"What good fortune, for those in power, that people do not think." -- Hitler

What drives them is their stage of cognitive and moral development.

Same back to you.  Didn't you read that book about projecting?  Seriously, you're not even going to look around on this forum and consider that most of these people are mindless?

 

I'm curious, have you ever actually worked in a bureaucracy before? 

It's a shitshow, and if unchecked, it's just as bad  your nightmares about capitalism.  It shouldn't take 20 years to build a highway. 

I just watched your video about politics, and I originally came on here to say that you clearly haven't advanced passed stage green when it comes to politics.  What you don't understand is - that to actually be in stage green - real stage green - you have to be privileged from the fruits of stage orange and boundaries of stage blue.  If you're not part of the privileged class, it doesn't really work.

 

 

Edited by GenuinePerspectiveXC

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