GroovyGuru

Is investing in Crypto just a get rich quick scheme?

221 posts in this topic

@7thLetter While I agree that the parabolic move is unsustainable, the chart you have shown us is a bunch of fancy drawings. :P It isn't grounded in reality, and betting on it as a trader would send you to the gates of hell right away. Have you ever wondered why 90% of supposed traders lose money? Everyone keeps this statistic in the back of their mind, hoping they are the outliers, yet virtually everyone draws the same conclusion from the same fancy paintings they have seen others draw. Ironic, isn't it? Why is it that the supposed golden standards of trading do not work?

Trading is about minimizing risk and not maximizing profit. The best way is to apply mathematics and physics, statistics and probability. These are dreamed up fields in the great scheme of cosmos, but they hold up relatively. You may think of trading volume as force and data distribution as mass. 

To quote your post: "It's more of a 50-70% chance of being right based on your skill/analysis."

Well, look. You could be right about 99% of your calls, and yet it would mean nothing if the remaining 1% wiped out your green numbers. On the contrary, you could be right 10% of the time and be pulling it off quite well. So these numberd are skewed. Not obvious at all.

But that's just something to think about. The best investment is a life purpose, and I can't wait to see everyone's come true. Imagine where we would be in 20 years. :-)


Let's get this life purpose going!

www.vladimirhlocky.com

🪐

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1 hour ago, SirVladimir said:

@7thLetter It isn't grounded in reality, and betting on it as a trader would send you to the gates of hell right away.

Not if you're using it as an indicator to exit your positions. I'm just saying based on what I've seen, this is the time to take some profits.

If I exit my positions right now, I don't lose money. If I'm wrong and Bitcoin continues to go up I don't lose money either, only potential profits. I'm just being extra cautious at this point in time.

1 hour ago, SirVladimir said:

@7thLetter Have you ever wondered why 90% of supposed traders lose money? Everyone keeps this statistic in the back of their mind, hoping they are the outliers, yet virtually everyone draws the same conclusion from the same fancy paintings they have seen others draw. Ironic, isn't it? Why is it that the supposed golden standards of trading do not work?

Are 90% of those "traders" actually real traders? Ask yourself that question. Your dog could put $1 into the market and be considered one of those "90% of traders."

And of course even the real traders lose money, that's just part of the game. It says "90% of traders lose money" not "90% of traders lose all their money." I could lose $3 and just like your dog who put in $1, I will be added as a statistic to one of those "90% of traders."

And no not everyone draws the same conclusion, people have different perspectives. There's bulls & bears. Democrats & Republicans.

1 hour ago, SirVladimir said:

Trading is about minimizing risk and not maximizing profit. The best way is to apply mathematics and physics, statistics and probability.

Which is what I'm doing.

1 hour ago, SirVladimir said:

 

To quote your post: "It's more of a 50-70% chance of being right based on your skill/analysis."

Well, look. You could be right about 99% of your calls, and yet it would mean nothing if the remaining 1% wiped out your green numbers. On the contrary, you could be right 10% of the time and be pulling it off quite well. So these numberd are skewed. Not obvious at all.

That number was just thrown out there.

I'd love to be the trader who's right 99% of the time and wrong 1% of the time. That means nothing? That would mean a great trader in my opinion.

Edited by 7thLetter

"Intellectual growth should commence at birth and cease only at death." - Albert Einstein

 

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13 minutes ago, 7thLetter said:

I'd love to be the trader who's right 99% of the time and wrong 1% of the time. That means nothing? That would mean a great trader in my opinion.

No. It means absolutely nothing on its own. Zero. Nadda. I'm talking small win, small win, and then BIG loss. If you are right 99% of the time but you gain 0.1% from each trade, then one trip and you're done for good. Wiped out. There is literally nothing mathematical in the chart you have shown us. It is just a bunch of fancy lines you have been sold as "trend lines". This is pure delusion, and I am telling you as a somewhat experienced trader myself for your own good. Have you actually acted upon your paintings from day to day, week to week, year to year? And I emphasize the word traded; as in betted on intraday or intraweek changes; as in your trades lasted anywhere from hours to weeks and consistently brought you results. Have you? At least load up the logarithmic chart, which doesn't skew the data as much, and delete all of those lines. They are completely useless and mean nothing. Although I shall fold my cards now, put out the cigar, and leave the last word up to you, my fellow gentleman, feel free to end this discussion by showing us how good and true trader you are. :ph34r: I'm packing my bags and kissing this thread goodbye. Please, do not project aggression upon my words, for I can sincerely and most genuinely assure you that I'm writing them with compassion and love. 


Let's get this life purpose going!

www.vladimirhlocky.com

🪐

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3 minutes ago, SirVladimir said:

No. It means absolutely nothing on its own. Zero. Nadda. I'm talking small win, small win, and then BIG loss. If you are right 99% of the time but you gain 0.1% from each trade, then one trip and you're done for good. Wiped out.

Who risks to gain 0.1% from all their previous trades then suddenly decides "oh I'm going to risk more than half my trading capital."

That's an unusual, rare case scenario. What do people call it, they say it came out of left field? Yeah I think that's what the saying is.

21 minutes ago, SirVladimir said:

There is literally nothing mathematical in the chart you have shown us. It is just a bunch of fancy lines you have been sold as "trend lines". This is pure delusion, and I am telling you as a somewhat experienced trader myself for your own good. Have you actually acted upon your paintings from day to day, week to week, year to year? And I emphasize the word traded; as in betted on intraday or intraweek changes; as in your trades lasted anywhere from hours to weeks and consistently brought you results. Have you? At least load up the logarithmic chart, which doesn't skew the data as much, and delete all of those lines. They are completely useless and mean nothing. Although I shall fold my cards now, put out the cigar, and leave the last word up to you, my fellow gentleman, feel free to end this discussion by showing us how good and true trader you are. :ph34r: I'm packing my bags and kissing this thread goodbye. Please, do not project aggression upon my words, for I can sincerely and most genuinely assure you that I'm writing them with compassion and love. 

If you're an experienced trader then how do you trade?

Yes I have acted on my "paintings" and they played out well at least half the time. Obviously I've been wrong many times in the past, that's just part of the game. To call them "paintings" yeah great way to downplay the idea of TA.

I don't admit to being a great trader, never said I was. All I did was share my opinion then you and Leo came in and started bashing my analysis.

Have I gotten consistent results? No I still consider myself beginner/intermediate. In the beginning stages its difficult. I would expect the results to come in with 5-10 years of experience.

End of discussion.


"Intellectual growth should commence at birth and cease only at death." - Albert Einstein

 

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@7thLetter I've been investing in crpyto since 2017 and I've listened to many TA experts, fundamental experts etc. Many of them say we'll never see 20k BTC again. 10k BTC can only be caused by a black swan event at this point. Do you know how many people are waiting to buy the dip? What the hell makes you think it could go down to 10k and that the buyers wouldn't step in way higher?

You're definitely right about taking profits, but you don't have a clue about TA.

Edited by vinc3nc

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@vinc3nc Lol so cringe.

"Yeah I listened to some random experts on youtube and they're always right and I invested since 2017 im an expert too."

If you've been in the market since 2017 then you would be smart enough to realize what happened in 2017-2018. Everyone was calling $100K BTC in 2017, even all the "experts" that you probably heard of. It's all hype. This market is heavily manipulated.

I didn't even apply TA. TA isn't effective in manipulated markets.

Your tone sounds a bit angry, perhaps you're in denial?


"Intellectual growth should commence at birth and cease only at death." - Albert Einstein

 

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@7thLetter Random experts like Raoul Paul & the Winklevoss twins? 

Nobody really knows with certainty, hence the word Prediction. Let's just come back to this thread when BTC peaks this bull run & then when it bottoms out again. Wherever it peaks (if it was 40k, which I doubt personally) historically it falls at least 40% from this place. However if it does reach 100k, 40% drop is only $60k. 


'One is always in the absolute state, knowingly or unknowingly for that is all there is.' Francis Lucille. 

'Peace and Happiness are inherent in Consciousness.' Rupert Spira 

“Your own Self-Realization is the greatest service you can render the world.” Ramana Maharshi

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@LfcCharlie4 I'm talking a short-term prediction. Sure its still possible we reach $100K this year but from now on moving forward its also possible we can see it slowing down for the next couple months, in my opinion. We're still in January, experts claim $100K-$300K in December 2021. Is it possible? Maybe, but its definitely not going to get up there in a straight line. This recent 30% drop created some fear around the market so now we're slowing down, we've been stuck under $40K for the past week now and IMO price could drop further. I could be wrong of course.

Do I think BTC will reach $500K one day, yes. But that's a long-term price prediction that could happen within' a decade. None of these experts are talking about a short-term price prediction (next couple of months) and potential pullbacks.

Also, we can't just blindly trust all these gurus or experts. There's also a possibility that they're not on our side. They're here to make money, just like everyone else. In order for them to win, a good chunk of people also have to lose. That's how a pump & dump works. Its possible they're selling the false hope of $100K in 2021 just to dump their tokens at $40K.

Lol Raoul Pal sold his Bitcoin in 2017 when it reached $2K and called it a bubble. old video but who cares:

If he didn't know it was going to $20K back then then he certainly doesn't know where its going this time. No one really knows with bubbles.

 


"Intellectual growth should commence at birth and cease only at death." - Albert Einstein

 

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@7thLetter Bitcoin is a arbitrary number that goes up and down 6-10%+ a day. Milk that cow. 

Edited by integral

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@7thLetter Yeah, if it drops short term I'm all for it as just means we can buy more, I'm only interested in HODLing BTC & ETH long term, Alt coins are different ofc. 

 


'One is always in the absolute state, knowingly or unknowingly for that is all there is.' Francis Lucille. 

'Peace and Happiness are inherent in Consciousness.' Rupert Spira 

“Your own Self-Realization is the greatest service you can render the world.” Ramana Maharshi

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If the telecommunication companies were creating 5g and selling future stock options on this technology but the iphone had yet to be invented (or even projected/imagined how it would be) with years away from anything resembling an iphone being invented, would you be dumping cash into 5g? This is basically the quality of logic behind people justifying their bitcoin investments as future tech investments. 

Edited by Lyubov

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@Lyubov People are buying because they want to get rich. 99% of investors have no understanding of the technology.

Smart investors focus on why prices go up and down, not on there own ideology. Smart investors just make money when the sun is shining. 

The alt coins are exploding 40% a day randomly, the entire market is a copy of 2017 behavior. I know because i lived through both of them. It will of course crash in the same way. 

Edited by integral

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31 minutes ago, integral said:

@Lyubov People are buying because they want to get rich. 99% of investors have no understanding of the technology.

Smart investors focus on why prices go up and down, not on there own ideology. Smart investors just make money when the sun is shining. 

The alt coins are exploding 40% a day randomly, the entire market is a copy of 2017 behavior. I know because i lived through both of them. It will of course crash in the same way. 

I'm waiting for the twitter freakout from 2017

 

Edited by Lyubov

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On 18. 1. 2021 at 6:24 AM, 7thLetter said:

@vinc3nc Lol so cringe.

"Yeah I listened to some random experts on youtube and they're always right and I invested since 2017 im an expert too."

If you've been in the market since 2017 then you would be smart enough to realize what happened in 2017-2018. Everyone was calling $100K BTC in 2017, even all the "experts" that you probably heard of. It's all hype. This market is heavily manipulated.

I didn't even apply TA. TA isn't effective in manipulated markets.

Your tone sounds a bit angry, perhaps you're in denial?

Not sure what sounded angry from my post, but it clearly offended your ego because I said you had no clue about TA.

Not saying I'm an expert - otherwise I wouldn't be listening to other people and telling you what they say. I've just learned a few things from the last 3 years, especially from observation alone.

You obviously don't understand the difference between 2017 and today. In 2016/2017's bull run BTC went up almost 2000%. From 1k - after it broke ATH - to 20k. In December 2020, after it had broken 20k, it went up a bit more than 100% (around 42k).

So, if you think that this is the same situation as in 2017, then I will say again that you have no clue what you're talking about. Because you can't compare 100% increase to 2000% increase. Not saying it will go up 2000% again, but 100k or 200k BTC wouldn't be a surprise later in this year.

Edited by vinc3nc

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The mental energy you guys are wasting on this could have been invested in actually making yourself a massive value provider.

Be ware of distractions if you truly care about becoming wealthy.

People who invest in crypto are like vultures fighting for scraps of road-kill while while the lion goes on to hunt the real game.


You are God. You are Love. You are Infinity. You are Leo.

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12 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

People who invest in crypto are like vultures fighting for scraps of road-kill while while the lion goes on to hunt the real game.

Value first!

Leo since youre comback is looming can you make something more about providing value and how to


Actualized.org for Health Information -->  https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCuRjEAERr0iSorCidZ66N8g 
 

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I hope my bitcoin burials in here have at least struck a chord in some. I'll feel better knowing I at least got a few people out of this before they got burned. Anyways, I'll await the eventual bump of this thread where everyone is freaking out about BTC plummeting to 1/5th of it's bull high. 

Edited by Lyubov

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31 minutes ago, vinc3nc said:

You obviously don't understand the difference between 2017 and today. In 2016/2017's bull run BTC went up almost 2000%. From 1k - after it broke ATH - to 20k. In December 2020, after it had broken 20k, it went up a bit more than 100% (around 42k).

I am not interested in investing at all, but I think it's foolish to look at growth through the lens of percentage.

The big players who manipulate and push the price up don't have infinte amounts of money, so obviously the higher the base price, the less their sheningans will affect it in terms of percent growth.

I would rather look for who the big players are and how much money they have put to manipulate the market back then and nowadays.

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23 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

The mental energy you guys are wasting on this could have been invested in actually making yourself a massive value provider.

Be ware of distractions if you truly care about becoming wealthy.

People who invest in crypto are like vultures fighting for scraps of road-kill while while the lion goes on to hunt the real game.

You're right. It is a distraction.

Anyway, I've noticed that you don't properly understand crpyocurrencies and their real potential for transforming the world for the better. Not saying that to offend you or anything, just assuming that you never dug deep into cpypto. You seem to have a great deal of different kinds of knowledge, but I would say you lack one in this department. That's probably the reason why you never invested in crypto in the first place (I just assume that you haven't) and you might also think that you missed the boat on top of that.

There's a lot negativity around the word "crypto" because so many people got burned over the years. There's also a lot of scams out there, etc. A lot of people just stay away from it just for that reason. It's understandable.

And wouldn't you say that things like gambling, poker, trading, etc is a zero-sum game (one wins, one loses), and that investing in appreciating assets on the other hand is a positive-sum game because every "can" win?

Edited by vinc3nc

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3 minutes ago, Girzo said:

I am not interested in investing at all, but I think it's foolish to look at growth through the lens of percentage.

The big players who manipulate and push the price up don't have infinte amounts of money, so obviously the higher the base price, the less their sheningans will affect it in terms of percent growth.

I would rather look for who the big players are and how much money they have put to manipulate the market back then and nowadays.

The reason it makes it sense to look at growth through the lens of percentage is because it gives you a better idea of how much it can go up the next bull cycle. But you have to understand how market cycles work in the first place. It's logical that BTC will go up less and less in the future (as the price rises), because you'll need way more money to push up the price for the same % gain.

Every market is "manipulated". The more BTC's you have, the easier it is to get more of them. Or in other words the rich get richer over time. You can't get around that. People with weak hands usually get burned. So, eventually 1% (just making that % up) of people will have the majority of BTCs.

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