vinc3nc

I still dont understand why you equate tech stocks with crypto. Stocks are near their highs, while crypto has been destroyed and is bottoming out. BTC is down 50%, and altcoins are down 85–97%. This is not where you sell BTC or crypto. This is where you start DCAing into it slowly until October (if you believe in it). The last 2 bear markets lasted exactly 1 year, and we are less than 3 months away from that 1-year mark. Yes, gold is down 30%, so its not a bad buying opportunity. It might go down to 3k, but nothing is guaranteed, so 4k is still a decent entry. But selling crypto here to buy gold just doesn't make sense to me. Stocks, on the other hand, are a different story.

When it comes to assets, theres a spectrum of risk: gold, silver, stocks, Bitcoin, crypto, and so on. You can create an edge over other investors by understanding certain assets better than most people. As a result, even though an asset may appear riskier on paper, to you it isnt because you recognize that its value may be mispriced. Bitcoin might seem extremely risky to someone who knows little about it, while someone who has studied it extensively may view its long-term risk differently. Another edge is simply buying low and selling high by being patient enough to wait for the right opportunities.

Fair enough if your risk appetite isn't that high. Also, keep in mind that gold did pretty much nothing for about 12 years (2012–2024) before breaking above 2k and starting a bull run. During that same period, BTC... well, I don't need to tell you what it did. Gold's recent bull run also contributed to BTC's underperformance because a lot of capital rotated into gold once it finally went parabolic. Now, who knows how long it will take for gold to have another rally like this? It could end up consolidating for years. On the other hand, BTC is also becoming a bigger and bigger asset, which means it will deliver diminishing returns over time. As the years go by, it will become less and less appealing for people looking for outsized gains. Owning both BTC and gold is the best option. What % of each depends on the person.

I agree that at 64k today, BTC carries more risk since there's probably another leg down coming over the next few months. But if you understand that BTC tends to follow a 4-year cycle, 3 years of a bull market and 1 year of a bear market, then buying in Q4 (in October most likely), especially if it drops toward 40k, becomes a no-brainer. (Gold = lower risk, lower gains)

The problem with this kind of thinking is that you never buy BTC when it crashes because you're always afraid it might go lower, no matter how much it has already fallen. If it drops to 40k, that's already deep value, yet you still won't buy because you'll be waiting for 30k or even 20k.

Crypto has already nosedived. It's been going down for like 9 months while stocks have been making new highs almost every week. Risk assets tend to decline first and bottom first. So it's likely that BTC will bottom before stocks again, somewhere around 40k–45k. Calling for 20k BTC is essentially saying it's going to fail. That's just not a realistic scenario.

@ZenSwift The shorter the woman, the more she benefits from a man being as tall as possible, as their offspring are likely to be taller. It sucks I know.

Imagine if she has green, or purple, or orange, or pink hair on top of that...

First of all, this is not financial advice. For those of you who are into investing and have money on the sidelines waiting to be invested, theres a chance you may be able to buy Bitcoin near $40k in Q4 this year. It might be early October, as the last two bear markets lasted close to 365 days (BTC topped on October 6), or it could happen a little earlier. There’s a lot of uncertainty around crypto right now, as the world seems to be going through a rough period with wars and global instability. Because of that, it’s difficult to buy anything when sentiment is this negative. But Bitcoin has always recovered. In 2011 it dropped more than 90%, in 2014 about 86%, in 2018 about 84%, and in 2022 around 77%. The price drops are always huge, and it’s extremely hard to buy when things look bad and hopeless. However, that’s when investors are rewarded the most. If you buy around $42k and it goes to $200k a few years later, that’s almost a 5x return. That alone might not make you financially free, but where else can you realistically expect that kind of gain with such a strong risk/reward opportunity? Bitcoin historically follows 4-year cycles. The last three bull runs (including this one) lasted 1064-1071 days, while the last two bear markets lasted around 365 days. This pattern is no coincidence, and it is wise to take advantage of it, until the pattern eventually changes. That said, nothing is guaranteed. The price might not go that low and you could miss the bottom, or it could even drop below $40k if things really fall apart. But from a long-term perspective, buying around that level could be an excellent opportunity. I have 8+ years of investing experience, and one thing I’ve learned is that most people don’t buy when prices are low. It’s psychologically difficult to buy when it feels like something is going to zero. Instead, many people end up chasing prices after they’ve already gone up significantly, and eventually make little money, or even lose it. The most money is often made during bear markets. It all comes down to the entry you get. If you enter well, you can simply sit on your hands and do nothing for a few years.

Today was a perfect day for the BTC top for this cycle, but then again, many people believe we will either top later this year or extend beyond 2026. You can't know for sure.

Been using ledger since 2017. It's ok. You can also buy trezor if you want.

@r0ckyreed BTC has no competition, while ETH has a lot. ETH is an L1, and theres a lot of L1s that are cheaper, faster, etc than ETH. The advantage ETH has is that it was the first L1. ETH might do well in the next couple of months (because it was underperforming for such a long time), but I wouldn't bet on it in the long term. So stick to BTC if you care about 5-10 years and you dont plan on trading.

@hyruga thats why timing is so important. BTC is up 7x from the bottom of Nov 2022, 600% in 2.5 years.

If it needed that much time, it would suck as an investment. Think bigger.

If your time horizon is 5-10 years, you shouldn't really care that much at what price you buy it. But if you want to optimize things, you should be buying more in the bear market. 200k this cycle would be amazing, but I dont think it will happen. Anything above 160-170k would already surprise me. And I dont care that much about price, Im expecting early October to be the top no matter what. Because that's how the previous cycles topped and Im gonna stick to that.