Leo Gura

Make Your 2020 General Election Predictions Here!

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@Leo Gura I’d say Texas could go blue it’s not impossible. Unlikely but it was also unlikely Biden would win the nomination

biden wins 300+ electoral votes and wins PA NC IA OH WI MI and maybe Texas 

Edited by Gidiot

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8 minutes ago, Gidiot said:

@Leo Gura I’d say Texas could go blue it’s not impossible. Unlikely but it was also unlikely Biden would win the nomination

biden wins 300+ electoral votes and wins PA NC IA OH WI MI and maybe Texas 

Too optimistic.

IA, OH, NC are most likely going Trump. TX for sure.

I am least sure about NC. It might go Biden but I doubt it. I think OH is definitely going Trump.

But a Blue Wave Biden landslide is a possibility. I just hesitate to bet my money on that.


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4 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

I think OH is definitely going Trump.

I would say you are correct. I live in Ohio and I'm 99% sure Trump has Ohio.


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@Leo Gura alright fair enough,

odd you’re giving trump Florida when Biden’s  about 65% favored to win it

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8 minutes ago, Gidiot said:

@Leo Gura alright fair enough,

odd you’re giving trump Florida when Biden’s  about 65% favored to win it

No fucking way am I trusting those stupid Floridians. Trump is one of their ilk. Every time I see one of those Trump rallies with MAGA fools wearing QAnnon shirts, I just imagine they are all from Florida or Ohio :D


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@Leo Gura hahahaha  I guess that’s a good point but I’m hoping a majority of people follow through and match the polling and people realize trump is too bad for a second term 

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1 minute ago, Gidiot said:

@Leo Gura hahahaha  I guess that’s a good point but I’m hoping a majority of people follow through and match the polling and people realize trump is too bad for a second term 

Not in the backwards states they won't. You can't fix cancer of the mind.


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I guess I’d rather be optimistic and fall back to reality or be pleasantly surprised than realist and right haha. 
 

I’m not too hopefully about Florida but I saw that in Georgia women were waiting in line 10 hours to vote and that got me hopeful cause I doubt any POC would stand in line  10 hours to vote for trump.

 

i don’t care what states he wins as long Biden wins the EC and popular vote

Edited by Gidiot

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1 hour ago, Leo Gura said:

No way is Texas going Blue. Liberal pipe dream.

Okay! Final prediction time!!! Post your final electoral college maps now. So we can see who was a fool on election night :D

In all seriousness, my hunch says close results over landslide, perhaps partly due to foreign interference again:

Also noticed Obama won both swing 2nd districts NE and ME in 2008, Obama for ME and Romney for NE in 2012 then Trump won both in 2016 so interesting to see if the last combination will happen...

Capture.PNG

Edited by tanman91

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33 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

Here's my final map. A rather conservative one:

https://www.270towin.com/maps/WpoWB

Wait, I thought that you previously said last week that you were predicting a Biden landslide. 

Furthermore, how did Obama in 2008 end up winning 365 electoral votes when he had less of a lead back then than Biden does now in the polls (Biden will also probably win the popular vote by a much greater margin than Obama did back then)? What about in 2012 when Obama won 332 electoral votes, but ended up only leading the polling average by about 1 point over Romney back then whereas Biden has consistently shown to have the largest polling average lead ever since the very beginning of the existence of scientific polls for elections, which was 1936?

Also, what is considered the minimum number of total electoral votes needed to get a landslide?

Edited by Hardkill

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Ohio is going Trump

Florida is going Biden or else they aint getting my prayers the next time a hurricane hits xD

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18 minutes ago, Hardkill said:

Wait, I thought that you previously said last week that you were predicting a Biden landslide. 

Well... I'm in a more realistic/pragmatic mood today.

Quote

Also, what is considered the minimum number of total electoral votes needed to get a landslide?

Like 350-ish

A true landslide would require Biden winning TX & FL. If that happens, holy cow! I'm not betting on that.


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45 minutes ago, Lyubov said:

Florida is going Biden or else they aint getting my prayers the next time a hurricane hits xD

The next time a hurricane hits, maybe they should nuke it like the person they would vote says. 

xD


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Do you think CA could turn red this year, or be close? 

Edited by Claymoree

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15 minutes ago, Claymoree said:

Do you think CA could turn red this year, or be close? 

no

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1 hour ago, tanman91 said:

In all seriousness, my hunch says close results over landslide, perhaps partly due to foreign interference again:

Also noticed Obama won both swing 2nd districts NE and ME in 2008, Obama for ME and Romney for NE in 2012 then Trump won both in 2016 so interesting to see if the last combination will happen...

Capture.PNG

Imagine the shitstorm we’d be in if it ended up as this map with the exception of Wisconsin being red...

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9 minutes ago, Willie said:

Imagine the shitstorm we’d be in if it ended up as this map with the exception of Wisconsin being red...

Would be awful. I don't think there will be a constitutional crisis if Biden is able to carry all his safe blue states and take one of the 50/50. Really seems like it's in Biden's favor now but we never know what could happen. Comparing this to 2016 Clinton seemed to be having a lot of trouble during the last week or so and the swing states Trump won were by extremely small margins. It really was more of a surprise victory (although closer than reported) that Trump won. Biden simply doesn't have the same kind of drummed up baggage Hilary had with the several year long talk radio propaganda targeted at her. 

Edited by Lyubov

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I'm predicting the same map as 2016, with maybe the exception of PA going blue.  Although I think Biden will win the popular vote at least 55%/45% because more people are voting.  

I still think its amazing how badly Trump beat Hillary in the electoral college while losing the popular vote by millions.  Sadly, I think the Electoral college will tragically go to the orange one cuz we have just gotten more and more polarized as a country.  Living in Texas has shown me how reasonable people can rationalize such strong beliefs that don't at all match their personal experience.  

 

201019164452-2016-election-map-exlarge-169.jpg

 

 

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1 hour ago, Willie said:

Imagine the shitstorm we’d be in if it ended up as this map with the exception of Wisconsin being red...

Michigan is the one I'm keeping an eye on

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