Leo Gura

Make Your 2020 General Election Predictions Here!

2,418 posts in this topic

Ohio was never a key state. It was a Trump state.


You are God. You are Truth. You are Love. You are Infinity.

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37 minutes ago, The0Self said:

Don’t get your hopes up man. Or do. Pros and cons to any way of viewing infinity.

I wrote that so I can feel the relief of being wrong af when victory is declared. It’s a childhood habit of mine — I project the worse case scenario while secretly hoping for the best, and when the favorable result occurs, the gap between the two sceneries my mind imagined causes a tremendous relief and pleasure.

Anyways, we can only be more clear on how things will go by the end of the week probably when absentee ballots are counted.

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8 minutes ago, Free Mind said:

That’s the thing. It ain’t looking so hot for all the key states (MI, WI, PA, OH). Hopefully the absentee votes will help resemble the predictions more.

Of course not. Those are mostly election day votes reported. Mail in ballots take much longer to count. 

In PA, none of the five big counties in the Philadelphia area have reported more than 33 percent of their expected vote, and Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) has reported just 17 percent. 

It won't be a landslide for either Trump or Biden. The polls were off, yet Biden still has a decent chance. 

Screen-Shot-2020-11-03-at-11.17.19-PM.pn

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It's quite the rollercoaster, but at least for now, Biden is now projected to win (again).

https://www.270towin.com/

EDIT: Nevermind, that appears to be old. But still, things are looking good knowing that mail in ballots are going to cause a surge for Biden.

Edited by Frylock

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7 minutes ago, Forestluv said:

Of course not. Those are mostly election day votes reported. Mail in ballots take much longer to count. 

In PA, none of the five big counties in the Philadelphia area have reported more than 33 percent of their expected vote, and Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) has reported just 17 percent. 

It won't be a landslide for either Trump or Biden. The polls were off, yet Biden still has a decent chance. 

Screen-Shot-2020-11-03-at-11.17.19-PM.pn

Yeah, I was thinking that’s the case. Do you know if early voting ballots are counted after Election Day votes? 

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Trump just won Ohio.


“You don’t have problems; you are the problem.”

– Swami Chinmayananda

Namaste ? ?

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7 minutes ago, Free Mind said:

Yeah, I was thinking that’s the case. Do you know if early voting ballots are counted after Election Day votes? 

I'm not sure about EVs. 

If it turns out to be a close election, AZ getting called this early is a big deal since it won't be contested in the future. AZ is a key battleground state. If Biden wins WI and MI convincingly, he just needs one more state or NE-2 + ME-2. 

It's not the clear victory Dems were hoping for. Biden and Trump are both in decent positions. 

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Biden now has an 85% chance to win, thanks to winning Arizona (assuming Trump wins OH, FL, and NC). Not quite as high as the 89% pre-election, but still things are looking pretty good.

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2 minutes ago, Frylock said:

Biden now has an 85% chance to win, thanks to winning Arizona (assuming Trump wins OH, FL, and NC). Not quite as high as the 89% pre-election, but still things are looking pretty good.

Where are you getting that live forecast? 

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The results so far have been pretty rough lol. Florida and Ohio lost. Arizona looks like a win though. 

Wi, mi and Pa look scary at first glance, but I have no clue whats going on with what districts and which type of votes are being counted first. 

Edited by lmfao

Hark ye yet again — the little lower layer. All visible objects, man, are but as pasteboard masks. But in each event — in the living act, the undoubted deed — there, some unknown but still reasoning thing puts forth the mouldings of its features from behind the unreasoning mask. If man will strike, strike through the mask! How can the prisoner reach outside except by thrusting through the wall? To me, the white whale is that wall, shoved near to me. Sometimes I think there's naught beyond. But 'tis enough.

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3 minutes ago, Frylock said:

Not a live forecast, but merely using 538's forecast pre-election. They had predicted 89% chance for Biden victory, and an 85% of his victory with the scenario I mentioned.

https://twitter.com/craigengler/status/1323844551983964160

Yeah but a lot of that has been proven wrong rn. I'm using the 538 map as well but its obvious that it isnt to be depended on solely rn. 


Hark ye yet again — the little lower layer. All visible objects, man, are but as pasteboard masks. But in each event — in the living act, the undoubted deed — there, some unknown but still reasoning thing puts forth the mouldings of its features from behind the unreasoning mask. If man will strike, strike through the mask! How can the prisoner reach outside except by thrusting through the wall? To me, the white whale is that wall, shoved near to me. Sometimes I think there's naught beyond. But 'tis enough.

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You are right. 538's whole reputation is on the line for this election. Gonna be a tight finish no matter what at this point.

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1 minute ago, lmfao said:

Yeah but a lot of that has been proven wrong rn. I'm using the 538 map as well but its obvious that it isnt to be depended on solely rn. 

The polls were way off in a lot of states. AZ for Biden keeps him in the race. My guess is that Trump's lead in WI won't hold. A good chance Trump loses his lead in MI. Then is comes down to NE-02, ME-02, PA and court battles. 

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18 minutes ago, Frylock said:

Georgia just took a major tilt towards Biden. Will not look good for Trump at all if he loses Georgia.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/forecast-president.html

NE-02 looks in the bag for Biden. He just needs MI and WI to hit 270. He can pull this out. I'd rather be Biden than Trump at this point. Trump's chance of winning has dramatically increased, yet Biden still has more paths to victory 

Things could be close. I hope Biden has an army of lawyers like people said. 

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