Leo's Blog Discussion Mega-Thread

[Sincerity]

23 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

@Sincerity Yeah, that's why I try not to make predictions.

My predictions are probablistic. Things that are likely to happen.

I feel there can be a danger to this probalistic predicting as well. A more subtle self-deception.

You can predict that something is likely to happen and then when it doesn’t, you can just say „well, even if there’s a 90% chance for something, there’s still a 10% chance that it doesn’t happen! So I guess this was the 10%!”. In this way, you can always give yourself leeway and never recognize your mistaken thinking.

I’m not saying it about you specifically. I’m saying in general.

Bashar, for example, „predicts” the future by „reading the current energy field” and also based on high probabilities. That’s the excuse. This way, he said 20 years ago that the beginnings for first contact would be between 2010-2015, and that 2012 would be a turning point for humanity in going into a more positive and light state/direction. Now he’s saying the time for contact is 2027-2035. Well, the „current reading” might be completely wrong and he won’t even recognize that it was.

Edited 58 minutes ago by Sincerity

[Leo Gura]

18 minutes ago, Sincerity said:

You can predict that something is likely to happen and then when it doesn’t, you can just say „well, even if there’s a 90% chance for something, there’s still a 10% chance that it doesn’t happen! So I guess this was the 10%!”. In this way, you can always give yourself leeway and never recognize your mistaken thinking.

Yes, of course epistemic perverts do exactly that.

That's why I avoid predictions. Predictions are for fools.

Still, you will see my Trump 2.0 predictions be very accurate. Some things are just as obvious as winter and summer.

Edited 50 minutes ago by Leo Gura

[Nemra]

49 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

Sure, depends on the work.

If you are just adding numbers all day, no.

What do you think about technical writing?

[Sincerity]

15 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

Still, you will see my Trump 2.0 predictions be very accurate. Some things are just as obvious as winter and summer.

You predicted that WWIII happening is a silly idea. We’ll see how that holds up. 

[Leo Gura]

19 minutes ago, Sincerity said:

We’ll see how that holds up. 

See away.

[Leo Gura]

30 minutes ago, Nemra said:

What do you think about technical writing?

Your questions are too vague to have meaningful answers.

[Nemra]

16 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

Your questions are too vague to have meaningful answers.

You said it depends on the job, and then I wanted to know if you think that the job I mentioned can develop one's rationality in a way similar to what you believe people with PhDs have developed.

Edited 1 minute ago by Nemra

[Leo Gura]

1 minute ago, Nemra said:

You said it depends on the job, and then I wanted to know if you think that the job I mentioned can develop one's rationality in a way similar to what you believe people with PhDs have developed.

I know. Too vague to answer.

Edited just now by Leo Gura