New War In Israel / Gaza

[Nivsch]

Shabbat Shalom 🍞🍷

@Lila9 Did you also see the Shkedia?

Edited January 20, 2024 by Nivsch

[zazen]

15 hours ago, Danioover9000 said:

   Fantastic coverage of a potential future problems for Israel:

 

Douglas McGregor is great 👍🏻 him and other similar voices are silenced or not given the spotlight because they go against the fantasy and ego of Western exceptionalism and the changing landscape of power dynamics underway. Advanced military, huge fire power and money spent doesn’t equate to victory like it used to.

Older military paradigms are neutralised by modern day capabilities and geography. The same way gunpowder defeated bows and arrows, navy and sea superiority overcame impossible land invasions to allow for colonial conquest and fighter jets defeated battleships by air - ballistic missiles and drone technology today can neutralise threats from the sea and air at a fraction of the cost. In a war of attrition - “the conventional army loses if it does not win. The guerrilla wins if he does not lose” Henry Kissinger

Non state actors and ‘poorer’ less ‘developed’ groups can neutralise or provide challenges to advanced militaries due to tunnels, difficult terrain, missiles and drones. Even without drones and missiles - think Taliban and Vietnam. Houthis are far larger in number and have drones and missiles - and remain strongly intact despite already being bombed for almost a decade by Western munitions.

The US/UK strikes didn’t do anything - in fact now US/UK ships will be blockaded. More inflation thanks to weak leaders and vested interests who can’t say no to the spoilt child they raised - Israel. They’d rather facilitate ethnic cleansing, death and destruction and try to maintain their imperial image of top dog instead of being embarrassed by ‘poorer primitives’ - after already being embarrassed in the Middle East and Ukraine. 
 

Now Israel want to go for Hezbollah and drag in the US and possibly Iran. Bibi stated he wants complete control of the land from West of the Jordan river to the sea - as good as saying from the river to the sea - something pro Palestinians are criminalised for saying but that the other side can say lol. Hypocrisy.

The reason Iraq has been home to many empires/invasions and Afghanistan hasn’t but is instead the grave of them has a lot to do with geography. Iraqs terrain is flat which allows for easier invasions and ongoing wars - similar to European wars that allow for tanks to move across plains and fields that would never work in say the jungles of a Vietnam or mountains of Afghanistan. Iran is less mountainous than Afghanistan but more warrior oriented than Iraq. 
 

The West wrongfully thought they could take over Afghanistan as they did Iraq - it would be foolish to think the same for Iran.

Edited January 20, 2024 by zazen

[StarStruck]

Look at those lips... what has she been doing in gaza 🤔

 

[Nivsch]

44 minutes ago, zazen said:

Now Israel want to go for Hezbollah and drag in the US and possibly Iran. Bibi stated he wants complete control of the land from West of the Jordan river to the sea - as good as saying from the river to the sea - something pro Palestinians are criminalised for saying but that the other side can say lol. 

So now to attack Hezbollah is also evil?

Radwan force in the south of Lebanon was aimed (and still can) do the same thing hamas did in oct 7th to the northern Israel residents, and it must be pushed from to borders to the Litani river. If it won't happen diplomaticly it will happen in force what probably will happen.

I knew from the beginning this is not about the people in the other side not nearly as much as it is about Israel, and if you are against this attack you prove my point.

Edited January 20, 2024 by Nivsch

[Danioover9000]

 So just general analysis of her body language and tonality, and the discourse and framing of this situation:

@StarStruck

1 hour ago, StarStruck said:

Look at those lips... what has she been doing in gaza 🤔

 

   The discourse/framing obviously will have pro Israel, and would have a narrative of supporting that side. Would have been nice if they showed us her wounded arm, because according to her when that HAMMAs shot her, it hit her shoulder and detached her arm...but her right shoulder looks fine...This is assuming the translation is accurate to begin with and isn't tampered by IDF or anyone else translating her words. Also this is from news 13, which is biased to Israel and against Palestinians. Keep framing in mind.

    Her body language generally looks subdued and shelled in, also her facial expressions are minimal with a few moments of contempt and a few moments of dubious delight. Her tonality throughout is low, subdued, and feels to me like she's depressed or disassociated from reality, and from her memory, obviously from some degree of trauma she experienced. Also very interesting red flag to me, at 7:34 to 7:50, when she said 'hidden' and said 'with a terrorist watching me 24/7, raping me with his eyes.' she does a half shrug. Shrugging in body language is a non-verbal sign for feeling uncertainty, the subconscious mind not sure or disagreeing with what the conscious mind is saying. Also followed by downcast eyes signaling shame/embarrassment, with a quick lip lick and small nervous smile, in combination these signs tell me that she felt very unsure of what she's saying, Also when she said "It was my biggest fear." she looks upper right, small head shakes, and a more obvious lip lick...IMO her subconscious mind disagrees with her here, which tells me she's withholding more than what she's letting on about what she really feels. Also "his wife was outside the room with their children" was followed by her head tilt to left, exposing her right neck, and left shoulder shrugs, followed by quick and sudden lip lick, compression and retraction, here IMO she felt a spike in defensiveness and withholding again the exact details here. "That's the only reason why he didn't rape me" and a few seconds after that she does a left eyebrow flash, but it's subtle and slow. In body language analysis an eyebrow flash means the following: Social approval/connection, emphasis, and surprise, which here I felt least is feeling surprise, but more likely social approval and emphasis, emphasis on the rape didn't happen solely because his 'wife and children' were outside the room...also followed by prolonged down casting of eyes and a very micro expression of a small smile, here I assume it's dubious delight or feeling guilty pleasure here, as if she's not telling what really happened there...

   What you said about her lips @StarStruck, could be from STD of non-consensual/consensual BJ because Stockholm syndrome can make hostages do strange behaviors towards their captives to placate them, sometimes venerate them as the good guys out of survival. Or she had a botox injection, which IMO low probability before the the interview. What do you think?  

[Danioover9000]

@Nivsch

1 hour ago, Nivsch said:

So now to attack Hezbollah is also evil?

Radwan force in the south of Lebanon was aimed (and still can) do the same thing hamas did in oct 7th to the northern Israel residents, and it must be pushed from to borders to the Litani river. If it won't happen diplomaticly it will happen in force what probably will happen.

I knew from the beginning this is not about the people in the other side not nearly as much as it is about Israel, and if you are against this attack you prove my point.

   I think tactically IDF should be defensive if Hezbollah attacks, they shouldn't launch a counter offensive or risk getting countered by HAMMAs or some other terrorist group from a different direction. Hezbollah ATM is clearly the strongest threat nearby the north, as Hezbollah are well armed with modern weapons too, which is why Israel's been pressuring the USA for more help even if that drags Iran and others into the entanglement. It won't be like the last time IDF would just launch a land counter offensive, Hezbollah now is really armed and trained up, they need to be more careful and will need air/sea support if they do try to pushback and invade southern Lebanon. 

[StarStruck]

@Danioover9000 obviously she is a bad liar. 

[kenway]

 

A brief clip giving a rare glimpse into the situation at Rafah, near to the Gaza / Egypt border. Tents continue to build up.

Date presumed to be yesterday - 19th Jan 2024.

 

 

[Nivsch]

@Danioover9000 I agree with most of your things you wrote here.

The problem though as I see it, is that, hezbollah can still attack on the ground with dozens of Israeli killed (even if IDF is well spreaded there already) and also and maybe the main problem now, to shoot an anti tank missiles against civilians which proved to be a well known tactic of him.

This is why I don't know if anything but a preventive attack on him can remove this threat to the residents who want to live there safely.

Edited January 20, 2024 by Nivsch

[Heaven]

People denied the holocaust..They will deny the actions made by Hamas on October 7th.

People will always try to justify their opinions rather than look on facts.

Israel didn’t occupy any land for over 40 years and still terror will terrorize. Don’t try to find logic in illogical actions. Like taping innocent girls and kill people in a party.

Israel is in existential risk to be more accurate the Jewish people. If it was your life or another person, what would you do?

Terror organizations are highly manipulative to choose “poor” Gaza for this war to make it look like Israel is the oppressor. The real players against Israel is Iran, Russia, Turkey, Yemen, Lebanon and Palestinians(Obviously not all of them).

Suddenly it doesn’t look like Israel is the strongest one.

Leo I consider you a really smart person to have such a narrow view on this topic. But it’s fine because you live 15 hours flight away.

 

[kenway]

 

Saturday Jan 20th 2024

Hugely damning CNN video report into the desecration of 16 Gaza cemeteries by the Israeli military. 

Aside from being yet another war crime under International Law (civil infrastructure), what's interesting is that it is CNN reporting on it.

Historically CNN tend to be biased in Israel's favor, but that's obviously not the case here. 

 

 

 

Edited January 20, 2024 by kenway

[Leo Gura]

1 hour ago, Heaven said:

People denied the holocaust..They will deny the actions made by Hamas on October 7th.

No one serious is denying that Hamas is awful.

Quote

Israel didn’t occupy any land for over 40 years and still terror will terrorize.

That's false.

It is this view which is the root of this whole problem. This whole notion that terrorism comes out of some black hole is patently false. Israel's policies and actions directly contribute to the creation of terrorism. Just as US actions did with 9/11.

Quote

Leo I consider you a really smart person to have such a narrow view on this topic. But it’s fine because you live 15 hours flight away.

Or perhaps I just don't indulge in your biases.

Edited January 20, 2024 by Leo Gura

[Raze]

 

[Danioover9000]

@Raze

10 minutes ago, Raze said:

 

   Yeah that Bassam Youssef in PBD was just something else, Adam was just crushed down!😂

[Nivsch]

25 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

It is this view which is the root of this whole problem. This whole notion that terrorism comes out of some black hole is patently false. Israel's policies and actions directly contribute to the creation of terrorism. Just as US actions did with 9/11.

In the other hand, serious terror activities against the Jews here were also in the 1920s and 1930s, Israel went highly towards the Palestinians five time with five different agreements in the 1990s and the answer was the 2nd Intifada, and couple of more times with peace proposals during the 2000s which every one of those deals means automatically stopping settlements expansion forever, but the Palestinians refused, and refused, and refused.

Edited January 20, 2024 by Nivsch

[Leo Gura]

16 minutes ago, Nivsch said:

In the other hand, serious terror activities against the Jews here were also in the 1920s and 1930s,

If that's true, ask yourself why.

Edited January 20, 2024 by Leo Gura

[Yimpa]

41 minutes ago, kenway said:

 

 

[Nivsch]

@Leo Gura I thought about violence of forceful stealing in those years and searched for it but could not find it yet. If you or someone else knows about this you can share. 

Edited January 20, 2024 by Nivsch

[Leo Gura]

@Nivsch I don't have that deep of a historical knowledge of that region. From what I heard small groups of Jews mostly lived in Palestine peacefully for a long time pre-Israel.

Obviously ethic violence was always a thing to some degree in all places. So some of that is normal.

Edited January 20, 2024 by Leo Gura

[zazen]

40 minutes ago, Nivsch said:

@Leo Gura I thought about violence of forceful stealing in those years and searched for it but could not find it yet. If you or someone else knows about this you can share. 

Iv seen this documentary circulated around before call Tantura. 

 

The problem is that these men were traumatised from Germany and then inflicted further trauma which has led to a back and forth till today.