Breaking News: Major Combat Operations in Iran 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 🇮🇷

[Breakingthewall]

Most likely, the regular army will take command, displace the revolutionary guard, and there will be a regime change in a few days, and that this was planned from the beginning by Israel. It's the only logical possibility. Israel is not impulsive, they are smart as hell and merciless. And after this, the Arabs countries will recognize the state of Israel.

I'm not supporting Israel, I bet a lot that they allowed the 8 October to destroy gaza, then attac irán and then annex the West Bank and create Great Israel, completely eliminating the possibility of a Palestinian state. But when someone is Machiavellian and succeeds at this level, I can't help but have absolute respect for their courage and effectiveness, even recognizing that he's absolutely evil. That's how history is made.

[Nivsch]

18 minutes ago, Breakingthewall said:

Israel is not impulsive, they are smart as hell and merciless. And after this, the Arabs countries will recognize the state of Israel.

Before 2023 Israel mostly withdrew from territories. What is happening now wasn't pre planned.

Edited Wednesday at 09:15 PM by Nivsch

[Breakingthewall]

2 minutes ago, Nivsch said:

Before 2023 Israel mostly withdrew from territories. What is happening now wasn't planned.

I think it was, but we never will know it. 

[LordFall]

29 minutes ago, Breakingthewall said:

Most likely, the regular army will take command, displace the revolutionary guard, and there will be a regime change in a few days, and that this was planned from the beginning by Israel. It's the only logical possibility. Israel is not impulsive, they are smart as hell and merciless. And after this, the Arabs countries will recognize the state of Israel.

I'm not supporting Israel, I bet a lot that they allowed the 8 October to destroy gaza, then attac irán and then annex the West Bank and create Great Israel, completely eliminating the possibility of a Palestinian state. But when someone is Machiavellian and succeeds at this level, I can't help but have absolute respect for their courage and effectiveness, even recognizing that he's absolutely evil. That's how history is made.

According to AI that scenario is possible but less likely than a total war over the middle that lasts years. 

I hope you're correct but our guy Prof Jiang is much more pessimistic than you are. Next target according to him will be destroying the desalination plants of gulf state countries and leading to a mass chaos across Saudi Arabia and other big cities. Remember Shia muslims are only 10% of muslims 90% are the Sunni their enemies so for them a multi year chaotic war is the goal and prophecy of their religion. 

 

[zazen]

@LordFall nice share. I think Jiang is predicting worst case outcomes - desalination plant is a major red line.

Tbh this could spiral in multiple ways - a Kurdish insurgency is being armed and backed to do the regime change as we speak - probably as a alternative to boots on the ground which is simply catastrophic and which there’s little political will for.

This is problematic for Turkey as it could force them to intervene and stabilise their side the border.

It seems like if regime change isn’t achievable then regime implosion, chaos and balkanisation is the next best outcome - without care for the spillover affects of such a thing.

Looks like carpet bombing or “mowing the lawn” the same term they use in operations in Gaza as Sky News just commented on also:

Legend

How prescient was Khameini - look at what he says half way through the following about trusting the West and negotiations and note how old the video is:

 

Edited Wednesday at 10:27 PM by zazen

[Apparition of Jack]

Does anyone have any sources about what the US military itself / military insiders are saying about this war? I’d like to see what they’re saying first-hand 

[UnbornTao]

 

 

[Jirh]

Regime change is not urgently necessary, though strongly preferred and implemented on ground through a Kurdish proxy and opposition.

What's most necessary now is destroying Iran's ballistic and nuclear capabilities, and that can happen without ground invasion. It will just take some more time, as planned.

After that, Iran will be in a constant state of war with itself until the government collapses. And that can take years.

Edited Thursday at 01:10 AM by Jirh

[Breakingthewall]

8 hours ago, LordFall said:

Prof Jiang is much more pessimistic than you are. Next target according to him will be destroying the desalination plants of gulf state countries and leading to a mass chaos across Saudi Arabia and other big cities

Jiang desires so hardly the fall of US that he really believes the worst scenario possible, but that would be absolute political suicide for Iran, handing Israel the key to legitimacy in the Gulf.

The fanaticism of Muslim regimes is always overestimated, when they are usually corrupt regimes that only seek to perpetuate themselves in power, like any other dictatorship. Power is power, it's equal for everyone. 

Have they filled the Strait of Hormuz with mines in revenge for the assassination of the Ayatollah? Why haven't they destroyed any desalination plants yet? What are they waiting for?

I think that anyone in Iran who ask himself: what is the better option in all senses now? Would answer: change. Because the other options are catastrophic 

Edited Thursday at 06:16 AM by Breakingthewall

[Lila9]

18 hours ago, Nivsch said:

Nice to see you back here.

How are you doing with everything going on? Do you have safe room in your home or do you go to a shelter?

Hi Niv, good to see you too.

I go to a shelter (a shared shelter for building residents), similar to yours.

I feel mixed feelings (stress, numbness, anger, peace) for various reasons.

I live in the north, so we got missiles and drones from both Iran and Hezbollah. While the repulsion of the ballistic missiles can sometimes shake the windows and walls, for some reason the protection feels more hermetic than in the center, maybe because it’s more crowded there. 

 

[Ramasta9]

A few weeks ago...

 

[zazen]

34 minutes ago, Lila9 said:

Hi Niv, good to see you too.

I go to a shelter (a shared shelter for building residents), similar to yours.

I feel mixed feelings (stress, numbness, anger, peace) for various reasons.

I live in the north, so we got missiles and drones from both Iran and Hezbollah. While the repulsion of the ballistic missiles can sometimes shake the windows and walls, for some reason the protection feels more hermetic than in the center, maybe because it’s more crowded there. 

 

Stay safe - I have family in the North too Nazareth side. Hopefully this comes to a end and with little suffering.

[Schahin]

18 hours ago, Breakingthewall said:

Most likely, the regular army will take command, displace the revolutionary guard, and there will be a regime change in a few days, and that this was planned from the beginning by Israel. It's the only logical possibility. Israel is not impulsive, they are smart as hell and merciless. And after this, the Arabs countries will recognize the state of Israel.

I'm not supporting Israel, I bet a lot that they allowed the 8 October to destroy gaza, then attac irán and then annex the West Bank and create Great Israel, completely eliminating the possibility of a Palestinian state. But when someone is Machiavellian and succeeds at this level, I can't help but have absolute respect for their courage and effectiveness, even recognizing that he's absolutely evil. That's how history is made.

 

So why do you have respect for machiavellian state of evil?  Sounds like a profound paradox, respect is something good and positive, Israel could have been accepted as a state for a long time now. 

Its not that its a jewish state that they are being hated, to the contrary, the Muslims have deepp veneration for the Children of Israel how they are called in Islam, they are venerated as special people in the Quran.

The fact, that Israel is being hated, is because they are seriously fucked up, they are immigrants and treat Palestinians, the native inhabitants of that land that have been there for thousands of years, like cockroaches, kill their families and steal their houses. 

 

The reason the current Iranian Regime has sworn to fight Israel, is due to two reasons 1. The Oppression and Displacement of Palestinians 2. Because they helped the infamous and terrible secret police SAVAK during the reighn of the Schah, they taught them how to successfully torture and persecute political prisoners and trained that The Savak Police who was responsible for great crimes.

 

I am Iranian myself and hate this Regime, but I see one Mafiastate fighting another Mafiastate and who suffers are the innocent Civilians.

Edited Thursday at 03:08 PM by Schahin

[Stick]

This I think will be marked as the beginning of WW3. This war is going to attract many players. USA ISRAEL SAUDI (and friends) CHINA RUSSIA EUROPE NORTH KOREA possibly INDIA.
The reason for that is the oil blockade that will affect every country to some degree.
Ground Invasion is immanent, there is also the Kurds revolutionary army. Iran as a nation might be destroyed but it wants to take the US with it.
China might attack Taiwan seeing this as an opportunity which will involve Japan South Korea and Philippines in the war.
Unlike WW1 and WW2, this war is actually going to take all over the world.
I don't think it is the end of the world because big powers will surely avoid attacking each other directly. But the destruction will be of similar level through proxies.
The only way it  might escalate to a nuclear war is if Iran somehow gets nukes and explodes them on USA as a last stance or if Pakistan or North Korea get impulsive.
People in Iran are basically fucked.
UAE is also fucked cause if the war drags on, their economy collapses first.

[NewKidOnTheBlock]

17 minutes ago, Stick said:

This I think will be marked as the beginning of WW3. This war is going to attract many players. USA ISRAEL SAUDI (and friends) CHINA RUSSIA EUROPE NORTH KOREA possibly INDIA.
The reason for that is the oil blockade that will affect every country to some degree.
Ground Invasion is immanent, there is also the Kurds revolutionary army. Iran as a nation might be destroyed but it wants to take the US with it.
China might attack Taiwan seeing this as an opportunity which will involve Japan South Korea and Philippines in the war.
Unlike WW1 and WW2, this war is actually going to take all over the world.
I don't think it is the end of the world because big powers will surely avoid attacking each other directly. But the destruction will be of similar level through proxies.
The only way it  might escalate to a nuclear war is if Iran somehow gets nukes and explodes them on USA as a last stance or if Pakistan or North Korea get impulsive.
People in Iran are basically fucked.
UAE is also fucked cause if the war drags on, their economy collapses first.

Good luck trying to get people to fight for the Epstein Axis lol. Profesional meatheads will have to take over that role

[Lyubov]

Just sickens me how much Israeli interests have infested congress in the USA. Nothing about that is organic or represents the average voter. I really hope we can tip the scales and cleanse this country of zionism but unfortunately they're really honing in on social media which was one of the places people could become woke on this.   

Edited Thursday at 05:12 PM by Lyubov

[Breakingthewall]

3 hours ago, Schahin said:

So why do you have respect for machiavellian state of evil?

Its not a state of evil, it's just a state in their beginning. That's how humanity works: the strong survive, the weak don't. Every state has been founded on war, so the respect I was referring to is the very intelligent way of waging hybrid warfare. 

I would say that they should earn the respect of his neighbors, something he wouldn't do with friendly gestures, since he would be devoured, as the law of life dictates.

3 hours ago, Schahin said:

The reason the current Iranian Regime has sworn to fight Israel, is due to two reasons 1. The Oppression and Displacement of Palestinians 2. Because they helped the infamous and terrible secret police SAVAK during the reighn of the Schah

So you think that the Iranian regime hates Israel due emotional reasons, because the Iranians are very worried and sad about the Palestinian, and they remember that secret police, that was bad, not like the actual secret police, that is good. Well, it's your right to think in that way but I think that you are misinterpreting the real reasons 

I think that the Iranian regime hates Israel due the fight for the supremacy in the area and over all because being the declared enemy of Israel brings influence in the Muslim world and legitimate his oppression to the Iranian people 

 

Edited Thursday at 06:14 PM by Breakingthewall

[LoneWonderer]

This is when we need the aliens to come in and save us all silly humans from ourselves. Fist bump to all my UFO peeps out there! 👊 My corrupt immature self keeps thinking: Now where do aliens fit in all this?

Answer: not at all. 😢

Edited Thursday at 05:12 PM by LoneWonderer

[Breakingthewall]

32 minutes ago, Stick said:

China might attack Taiwan seeing this as an opportunity

China thinks In a 20-year plan, not in emotional responses. What would get china conquering Taiwan? It's much better threatening about conquering Taiwan.

China's number one ally is the US, and the US's number one ally is China. They can't live without each other; they're like two lovers dancing an Argentine tango, or perhaps more like a couple with children tired of each other but knowing that divorce is out of the question, as it would be ruinous.

If Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, the third world war you're talking about will be everyone against Iran, and Iran will loose that war. 

[Breakingthewall]

48 minutes ago, Stick said:

People in Iran are basically fucked.

It depends. If the regular army were to displace the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which, besides being the guarantor of the regime, wields enormous economic power that many would like to share, and were to reach an agreement with the US, Iran would enter a period of great economic prosperity.

If this were to happen today, Iran's economy would take off in just a few months. If something is so advantageous, many influential players will be waiting for their opportunity. It would be surprising if the best solution for everyone didn't prevail.