Breaking News: Major Combat Operations in Iran 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 🇮🇷

[Breakingthewall]

Most likely, the regular army will take command, displace the revolutionary guard, and there will be a regime change in a few days, and that this was planned from the beginning by Israel. It's the only logical possibility. Israel is not impulsive, they are smart as hell and merciless. And after this, the Arabs countries will recognize the state of Israel.

I'm not supporting Israel, I bet a lot that they allowed the 8 October to destroy gaza, then attac irán and then annex the West Bank and create Great Israel, completely eliminating the possibility of a Palestinian state. But when someone is Machiavellian and succeeds at this level, I can't help but have absolute respect for their courage and effectiveness, even recognizing that he's absolutely evil. That's how history is made.

[Nivsch]

18 minutes ago, Breakingthewall said:

Israel is not impulsive, they are smart as hell and merciless. And after this, the Arabs countries will recognize the state of Israel.

Before 2023 Israel mostly withdrew from territories. What is happening now wasn't pre planned.

Edited 19 hours ago by Nivsch

[Breakingthewall]

2 minutes ago, Nivsch said:

Before 2023 Israel mostly withdrew from territories. What is happening now wasn't planned.

I think it was, but we never will know it. 

[LordFall]

29 minutes ago, Breakingthewall said:

Most likely, the regular army will take command, displace the revolutionary guard, and there will be a regime change in a few days, and that this was planned from the beginning by Israel. It's the only logical possibility. Israel is not impulsive, they are smart as hell and merciless. And after this, the Arabs countries will recognize the state of Israel.

I'm not supporting Israel, I bet a lot that they allowed the 8 October to destroy gaza, then attac irán and then annex the West Bank and create Great Israel, completely eliminating the possibility of a Palestinian state. But when someone is Machiavellian and succeeds at this level, I can't help but have absolute respect for their courage and effectiveness, even recognizing that he's absolutely evil. That's how history is made.

According to AI that scenario is possible but less likely than a total war over the middle that lasts years. 

I hope you're correct but our guy Prof Jiang is much more pessimistic than you are. Next target according to him will be destroying the desalination plants of gulf state countries and leading to a mass chaos across Saudi Arabia and other big cities. Remember Shia muslims are only 10% of muslims 90% are the Sunni their enemies so for them a multi year chaotic war is the goal and prophecy of their religion. 

 

[zazen]

@LordFall nice share. I think Jiang is predicting worst case outcomes - desalination plant is a major red line.

Tbh this could spiral in multiple ways - a Kurdish insurgency is being armed and backed to do the regime change as we speak - probably as a alternative to boots on the ground which is simply catastrophic and which there’s little political will for.

This is problematic for Turkey as it could force them to intervene and stabilise their side the border.

It seems like if regime change isn’t achievable then regime implosion, chaos and balkanisation is the next best outcome - without care for the spillover affects of such a thing.

Looks like carpet bombing or “mowing the lawn” the same term they use in operations in Gaza as Sky News just commented on also:

Legend

How prescient was Khameini - look at what he says half way through the following about trusting the West and negotiations and note how old the video is:

 

Edited 18 hours ago by zazen

[Apparition of Jack]

Does anyone have any sources about what the US military itself / military insiders are saying about this war? I’d like to see what they’re saying first-hand 

[UnbornTao]

 

 

[Jirh]

Regime change is not urgently necessary, though strongly preferred and implemented on ground through a Kurdish proxy and opposition.

What's most necessary now is destroying Iran's ballistic and nuclear capabilities, and that can happen without ground invasion. It will just take some more time, as planned.

After that, Iran will be in a constant state of war with itself until the government collapses. And that can take years.

Edited 15 hours ago by Jirh

[Breakingthewall]

8 hours ago, LordFall said:

Prof Jiang is much more pessimistic than you are. Next target according to him will be destroying the desalination plants of gulf state countries and leading to a mass chaos across Saudi Arabia and other big cities

Jiang desires so hardly the fall of US that he really believes the worst scenario possible, but that would be absolute political suicide for Iran, handing Israel the key to legitimacy in the Gulf.

The fanaticism of Muslim regimes is always overestimated, when they are usually corrupt regimes that only seek to perpetuate themselves in power, like any other dictatorship. Power is power, it's equal for everyone. 

Have they filled the Strait of Hormuz with mines in revenge for the assassination of the Ayatollah? Why haven't they destroyed any desalination plants yet? What are they waiting for?

I think that anyone in Iran who ask himself: what is the better option in all senses now? Would answer: change. Because the other options are catastrophic 

Edited 10 hours ago by Breakingthewall

[Lila9]

18 hours ago, Nivsch said:

Nice to see you back here.

How are you doing with everything going on? Do you have safe room in your home or do you go to a shelter?

Hi Niv, good to see you too.

I go to a shelter (a shared shelter for building residents), similar to yours.

I feel mixed feelings (stress, numbness, anger, peace) for various reasons.

I live in the north, so we got missiles and drones from both Iran and Hezbollah. While the repulsion of the ballistic missiles can sometimes shake the windows and walls, for some reason the protection feels more hermetic than in the center, maybe because it’s more crowded there. 

 

[Ramasta9]

A few weeks ago...

 

[zazen]

34 minutes ago, Lila9 said:

Hi Niv, good to see you too.

I go to a shelter (a shared shelter for building residents), similar to yours.

I feel mixed feelings (stress, numbness, anger, peace) for various reasons.

I live in the north, so we got missiles and drones from both Iran and Hezbollah. While the repulsion of the ballistic missiles can sometimes shake the windows and walls, for some reason the protection feels more hermetic than in the center, maybe because it’s more crowded there. 

 

Stay safe - I have family in the North too Nazareth side. Hopefully this comes to a end and with little suffering.

[Schahin]

18 hours ago, Breakingthewall said:

Most likely, the regular army will take command, displace the revolutionary guard, and there will be a regime change in a few days, and that this was planned from the beginning by Israel. It's the only logical possibility. Israel is not impulsive, they are smart as hell and merciless. And after this, the Arabs countries will recognize the state of Israel.

I'm not supporting Israel, I bet a lot that they allowed the 8 October to destroy gaza, then attac irán and then annex the West Bank and create Great Israel, completely eliminating the possibility of a Palestinian state. But when someone is Machiavellian and succeeds at this level, I can't help but have absolute respect for their courage and effectiveness, even recognizing that he's absolutely evil. That's how history is made.

 

So why do you have respect for machiavellian state of evil?  Sounds like a profound paradox, respect is something good and positive, Israel could have been accepted as a state for a long time now. 

Its not that its a jewish state that they are being hated, to the contrary, the Muslims have deepp veneration for the Children of Israel how they are called in Islam, they are venerated as special people in the Quran.

The fact, that Israel is being hated, is because they are seriously fucked up, they are immigrants and treat Palestinians, the native inhabitants of that land that have been there for thousands of years, like cockroaches, kill their families and steal their houses. 

 

The reason the current Iranian Regime has sworn to fight Israel, is due to two reasons 1. The Oppression and Displacement of Palestinians 2. Because they helped the infamous and terrible secret police SAVAK during the reighn of the Schah, they taught them how to successfully torture and persecute political prisoners and trained that The Savak Police who was responsible for great crimes.

 

I am Iranian myself and hate this Regime, but I see one Mafiastate fighting another Mafiastate and who suffers are the innocent Civilians.

Edited 1 hour ago by Schahin