integral

US dollar is about to collapse

44 posts in this topic

Talks options at 15:33

option 1 Save the bond market, kill the dollar

option 2 Strengthen the dollar, kill the bond market

option 3 Move from a market economy to a command economy 

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Be careful with pundits making any kind of market predictions. They have a history of being very wrong.

I remember back in 2010 there were pundits talking about how the US economy was going to go into a huge double-dip recession, so sell everything and buy gold. And then there was a 10 year bull run.

These pundits don't know shit. They make their money selling you their punditry. If they really knew what the market was going to do they would be quietly playing the market, not loudly playing you.


You are God. You are Love. You are Infinity. You are Leo.

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5 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

Be careful with pundits making any kind of market predictions. They are a history of being very wrong.

I remember back in 2010 there were pundits talking about how the US economy was going to go into a huge double-dip recession, so sell everything and buy gold. And then there was a 10 year bull run.

These pundits don't know shit. They make their money selling you their punditry. If they really knew what the market was going to do they would be quietly playing the market, not loudly playing you.

What's funny is that it seems like this hysteria exists in all currencies in the world. We have simillar news on a weekly if not daily basis about our russian RUBEL. And last time I checked, EURO and UK POUND has the same tantrum-sounding headlines everywhere. I am sure the same happens in Asia and everywhere else. Sounds like some systemic thing


"In time you will learn that intuition is a higher form of knowledge and your feelings are in fact your sharpest tool."

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9 minutes ago, Hello from Russia said:

What's funny is that it seems like this hysteria exists in all currencies in the world. We have simillar news on a weekly if not daily basis about our russian RUBEL. And last time I checked, EURO and UK POUND has the same tantrum-sounding headlines everywhere. I am sure the same happens in Asia and everywhere else. Sounds like some systemic thing

That's because the pundits get paid for writing articles, not for predicting markets.

Market prediction advice is the oldest grift on Wall Street. Don't fall for it. None of the "experts" know how to predict the market. Which is why they charge commission or sell you their advice instead.


You are God. You are Love. You are Infinity. You are Leo.

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Either way I'm putting my life savings in Dogecoin. 

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Posted (edited)

It's best to dollar cost average and invest for the long term. Personal development helps with this because it's emotional decisions that often lead to investing mistakes. Having a disciplined plan in place and not looking at day to day moves is important.

Betting on deflation is like shorting a stock. It can work for a while ... timing the market and trying to bet against it, but in the long run, inflation will kill you. There's no doubt about it we've had the biggest market pump in US history in 2020 and everything is in a bubble, but interest rates are so low that combined with unlimited QE and stimulus it affects the risk-free rate of return and makes stocks (and real estate, cryptos, commodities) more attractive than holding cash or bonds.

Will we see a period of inflation and deleveraging? Will it be different thing time and the central banks be able to completely prevent recessions by continual pumping, UBI, and helicopter money? Time will tell.

It's best to diversify.. I personally have bitcoin, various stocks, gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and rhodium.  Also buying a house with as close to zero down as possible and taking advantage of low interest rates to let inflation work for you....

Edited by sholomar

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Posted (edited)

@Leo Gura Good advice like usual, questions is who is going to buy US bonds? If no one buys the bond they need to start printing more money, devaluing the US dollar. Buying US bond have never been less attractive.  

Edited by integral

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Im new to stock trading but in my opinion i think its best not to get sucked in by the pundits and predictions, i think its best to just put your money in stocks that you believe in, keep them diversified and then just leave it, maybe check in once a month or so (this is hard to do but worth being aware of).

If you look at charts, prices will always go up and down, but more than likely even out over the years and give a fair return, at least one thats much better than holding cash, if your emotions are tied to it youre gonna put yourself on an unneeded roller coaster ride. Just my initial opinion on trading 

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4 hours ago, integral said:

@Leo Gura Good advice like usual, questions is who is going to buy US bonds? If no one buys the bond they need to start printing more money, devaluing the US dollar. Buying US bond have never been less attractive.  

I own some bonds. They are very safe investments I think. 

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18 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

Be careful with pundits making any kind of market predictions. They have a history of being very wrong.

I remember back in 2010 there were pundits talking about how the US economy was going to go into a huge double-dip recession, so sell everything and buy gold. And then there was a 10 year bull run.

These pundits don't know shit. They make their money selling you their punditry. If they really knew what the market was going to do they would be quietly playing the market, not loudly playing you.

This is my exp too.

Eventually the US dollar will collapse and they will say they were right all along.

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4 hours ago, integral said:

Good advice like usual, questions is who is going to buy US bonds? If no one buys the bond they need to start printing more money, devaluing the US dollar. Buying US bond have never been less attractive.  

This is typically illogical. Most people commenting on such issues can't think straight, and unwillingness to understand macro is the most typical failing of the brainwashed.

The first rule of macro is: transactions have both buyers and sellers. When someone sells a bond, they'll have cash in an account. The bank is then likely to either deposit the cash at the Fed or buy bonds with it. The more banks want to deposit money at the Fed instead of buying bonds, the more the Fed will have to buy bonds if it doesn't want the yield curve to steepen. You can call this "printing" if you like but this has nothing to do with the value of the dollar.

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1 hour ago, commie said:

The first rule of macro is: transactions have both buyers and sellers. When someone sells a bond, they'll have cash in an account. The bank is then likely to either deposit the cash at the Fed or buy bonds with it. The more banks want to deposit money at the Fed instead of buying bonds, the more the Fed will have to buy bonds if it doesn't want the yield curve to steepen. You can call this "printing" if you like but this has nothing to do with the value of the dollar.

What are the consequences of doing this? 

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Posted (edited)

Can anyone explain what this chart means?

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSD

Seeing as this has never happend before in US history... what are the consequences of this? What is it effecting? How did it play out historically in other contries?

It started to recover abit in 2010, im guessing thats the bull run, then took another huge dive. so we are to expect another 10 year bull run? 

Edited by integral

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And what is a rhetorical question?

It takes a brazen essentialist to appeal to history. In the contingency of the world, all manner of oracles may be found. Check out the Japanese deficit for instance: the yen has been about to collapse for quite some time. Of course that's a different matter than the US deficit, precisely because it's all contingent.

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Posted (edited)

@commie ahah honestly was not trying to be rhetorical. Look at that dip, what does it mean? Im assuming there are consequences? Not trying to appeal to history, trying to learn from it. The "us dollar is about to collapse" was click bait, i hold no belief on the subject. 

Similar circumstance the US is in now likely happend in history a few times with other contrys, might reveal potential outcomes (not that it will predict anything).

Any idea how that defit will play a role? Potential options?  

How is it contingent? What exactly can they do? What are there options? 

Edited by integral

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My point was that there is no similar circumstance.

I have no crystal ball, and I very much doubt anyone else has one. I can't even understand what you are thinking about when you write such vague questions. Still, I can offer a few musings in the hope that they might be relevant:

-start by learning from the present which is a hell of a lot easier than learning from history... the Fed has in fact allowed the yield curve to steepen and you can see the effects (no need to speculate)

-then learn from recent history: it's fairly easy to understand last year's data and remember last year's sentiment when the curve was flattened

-going down as well as up is the whole point the bond market and it only dies when people stop trading (that is, when people have no idea what prices to offer, not when people agree prices must fall because that's government policy)

-what matters isn't the deficit but outstanding debt, and if it wasn't for foreign creditors all a large debt stock would mean is that interest rates would have to remain "lower for longer"

-the real issue therefore is people's willingness to "carry" (both domestically and abroad), reflected in rate differentials and hedging costs... which is another way to say that people will have confidence as long as they are confident, with the subtelty that it's easy to inspire confidence when much of the indebted world is such a mess (what happend to the dollar at the end of last week illustrates this point)

You obviously hold plenty of beliefs and you were being rhetorical. Even that dip is rhetorical (that chart is so misleading it might as well be a lie). People are usually the main target of their own rhetoric.

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I can tell he's full of shit by just looking at his face in that thumbnail.

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Posted (edited)

@hoodrow trillson lolol, right a stage orange aesthetic, but theres still something we can learn from this perspective. 

@commie A friend sent me that video and we chatted over it for hours, couldn't really make sense of it seeing as i know nothing about this stuff, so i thought to post it to the forum to get some insights. Will try to get him to join the discussion. 

Edited by integral

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