Breaking News: Major Combat Operations in Iran 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 🇮🇷

[zazen]

16 hours ago, Breakingthewall said:

They are against American imperialism and in favor of Iranian imperialism. It's logical; that's how it works. If you truly believe the ayatollahs are freedom fighters and defenders of orphans, you should take a step back and understand human dynamics without taking sides.

Iran doesn't seek justice; it seeks power. That's what nations do. 

Iran and Israel actually aren’t imperial in the same sense as the US - even if their actions have caused bloodshed. All nations seek power to gain and maintain their security and sovereignty - which to most is a just cause. Imperial Empires seek domination for accumulation and primacy, not just preservation of the nation state.

A state being unjust internally is a different matter to it causing injustices abroad. Beyond their own borders it’s not simply about internal politics but geopolitics - between states. Though Israel is literally preventing another state from existing which is the whole injustice to begin with. But still - its ambition is bounded (unlike imperial empires) even if its aggressive within that boundary and contested territory.

State actions beyond borders can be morally wrong (causing injustice) yet strategically understandable (geopolitically) if it’s being done for survival - both can coexist. Russia is heavily oligarchic and hasn’t invested in its own people the same way China has - that doesn’t mean they aren’t right in resisting US containment that’s caused a security dilemma - as you’ve pointed out before. 

The difference is that Israel is heavily aggressive about their security whilst their ambitions are mostly capped locally to Israel and occupied Palestinian land - whilst US’s aren’t. Israel still causes issues in the region but I think their primary intent isn’t to dominate it for material gain and primacy (imperial ambitions). It’s more to preserve their ability to dominate Palestinian land and absorb it into Israel proper.

Their security doctrine is maximalist and highly aggressive because they seek security through dominance - using a superpower who seeks primacy through imperially dominating the same region - which is why they align. That security logic can become imperially expansionist (Greater Israel) - just like how Japans insecurity (vulnerable from scarce resources) turned imperial wanting a “Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere”. They invaded China, colonized Korea and were pushing further into SEA.

Security and imperialism start to blur because then countries try secure themselves imperially - but the difference is scale and intent. I don’t think we’ve gotten close to Greater Israel yet but it could happen. And I don’t buy Proff Jiangs point of them wanting to create a Pax Judaica - a country that small in scale (population) can’t become an empire - which is exactly why they piggy back off of one for their own interests.

 

16 hours ago, Breakingthewall said:

Look, in Iran they hang 14 Years old girl for being raped, gays and anyone who threat their power, and Kim jong would put all your family in prison if you scape of his county because you are his possession. They are not paladins of justice, are dictators who seek power. Japan or south Korea are aligned with the empire and maybe for you it's an horrible humiliation, but for them it's a good business 

The point is doing like china, not direct confrontation, yes competition in business, development, looking forward. But some like Saddam, Kim jong, ayatollah, can't do that because it's extremely difficult, then they put themselves as fighters against the evilness to legitimate their power and live as kings enslaving their countries , and many fools buy it

Hardliners entrench under pressure - so the most probable way of getting a regime change is through regime evolution which needs a more enabling environment ie less geopolitical pressure externally + their own internal pressure to reform organically. We already saw changes with the Hijab law I think some years ago.

Integration isn’t just about swallowing pride - each country makes a trade off between prosperity and autonomy. Each of them have different positions and are folded into the system on different terms. China integrated when it posed no threat and was too big to even discipline - but as it got stronger within the system now it’s trying to be contained.

GCC countries have up much more of their sovereignty because they head a weaker position (leverage) - and what’s it got them is being sucked into their patrons interests in this war they were barely consulted on. South Korea also had its THAAD defense taken away to protect Israel, leaving it naked in front of NK - which Iv said before is a hell hole.

This is why countries try to retain their sovereignty as much as possible - because decisions not in your interest get made.

Speaking of Saddam and related to the previous comment on survival - he was expansionist and invaded Iran and they warred for 8 years with US supporting Iraq who used chemical weapons.

Later on the US invaded Iraq in 2003. Iran had to expand its buffer zone and sphere of influence into Iraq which was easier as its majority Shia. Then further into Syria to support Assad which allowed them a land bridge to Hezbollah in Lebanon - and that was their strategic depth/deterrence against Israel. Against a stronger country (and empire) all you have is asymmetric means like proxies, missiles and chokepoints.

The thing with Israel is that its security doctrine is maximalist - they don’t want to risk any strong country in the region that may not be aligned - and the Palestine question only intensifies their tension even more. That’s why even after Assad fell - they went in and hit military assets - they don’t just care about intent but capability. So they want to mow the lawn and keep the power of balance tilted in their favour - and GCC countries are a non threat as they are US occupied anyway.

So Iran and Israel both act primarily from security needs - but in opposite ways. Iran builds deterrence through depth and proxies because it’s weaker, while Israel maintains security by pre-emptively weakening the region to remain dominant against any potential threat. The Palestinian issue deepens any hostility and distrust, which reinforces the cycle - but the main issue is a security dilemma between the two.

Until the Palestine question is resolved to lessen tensions - and an inclusive security arrangement is made for the region - things will remain as they are or war will change them. Just like what was lacking between Europe-Ukraine-Russia was a security architecture that included Russia - and that led to war to settle things after red lines were crossed.

[Breakingthewall]

59 minutes ago, zazen said:

So Iran and Israel both act primarily from security needs - but in opposite ways. Iran builds deterrence through depth and proxies because it’s weaker,

What would have happened to Iran if 20 years ago it had stopped funding proxy guerrillas and had completely abandoned its rhetoric of hatred towards Israel and the USA?

 

1 hour ago, zazen said:

Until the Palestine question is resolved to lessen tensions -

The Palestinians have been offered the opportunity to form a state six times, and each time they have refused, deeming the conditions unjust. For them, the only possibility has always been the total expulsion of the Jews.

You see them as victims, but they have been the aggressors. Israel has been attacked by coalitions of countries with hundreds of millions of inhabitants, directly, in a coordinated way, and with the purpose of exterminating them as a nation. Not once, but three times, not counting intifadas and constant terrorism.

Saddam, Iran, and Turkey have consistently expressed the need for Israel to disappear, same than Gaddafi,  Assad father , saudies and qatar until some years ago. So, what should Israel do with the Palestinians who vote for Hamas and support massacres committed by them? Reward them? No, they vote ben gvir and smotrich, that how life works.

Sorry if Palestinian are not strong enough to exterminate Israel, it's very bad for them but it's a fact. Then change those ideas of expulsion for coexistence and development is the best option possible.