LordFall
Member-
Content count
1,723 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Posts posted by LordFall
-
-
17 minutes ago, Bjorn K Holmstrom said:Something I notice in this debate: both scenarios. crash and no-crash, seem to converge on the same distributional outcome. LordFall's own framing of the K-shaped recovery is actually the most honest part of this whole thread, but it kind of disappeared into the AI girlfriend discussion.
If the bubble crashes, middle-class retirement portfolios and junior employment take the hit while the firms restructure and survive. If it doesn't crash, if AI gets absorbed into the military-industrial complex and nationalized the way the Palantir CEO is already suggesting, who governs that? Not the people being displaced by it.
While the crash/no-crash question is interesting, I am more curious about: what legitimate governance structures could emerge around this technology, regardless of which scenario plays out? Because UBI from Trump and nationalized compute are two very different things with very different accountability structures. Also depending on where decisions actually get made. A federally administered compute nationalization has the same structural problem as any centralized controller: by the time Washington perceives what's happening on the ground and responds, conditions have changed. The history of complex system management suggests the response latency matters as much as the intent.
Not saying decentralization is magic either. Just that "government steps in" is doing a lot of work in both the crash and no-crash scenarios without specifying what kind of governance architecture actually has the bandwidth to handle this.
Yes it seems our minds got carried away by a philosophical discussion on the value of AI titties and as you guys can read my position is clear, brother Leo is misguided in undervaluing them but to each their own.
I think you're correct that governance and policy is gonna shape this whole issue. They could handle it well and if/when mass layoffs occur have social programs in place to operate a transition or there could be more of a slow standards of living collapse until things a breaking point which historically happens at around 20-30% unemployment rate.
@Lazarus93 Once again what do you define as AGI? The era of AI agents majorly changing the economy will happen much before AGI. You can already have claude code work on your pc 24/7 and extract economic value on your behalf and buy a whole server to run 50 different instances of it with different objectives that each learn from eachother.
Here's a funny one, how soon til we get the first Robot Police robots patrolling US streets? I predict that will be a huge issue with how sensitive policing is in the US but I mean it does make sense in the end perhaps it will be more reliable than human cops. I think by 2030 they start pilot projects around it in smaller cities and by 2035 it's common.
-
10 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:The crash will especially kill crypto.
Legit businesses will survive.
Not a chance. Crypto is being integrated into the US banking and financial system as we speak and is a big part of how the current administration is working to preserve US global financialization. Clarity Act is gonna pass the US senate at any time now.
Stable Coin companies own a massive about of US Treasuries and they are in deep with the administration which just gained control of the federal reserve. Trump is gonna print massive amounts of cash to fund his new war and pump the shit out of crypto to make his family trillionaires. I would absolutely get into the crypto market right now, mark my words and hold me accountable to the price of Bitcoin $73K USD today being way higher 6 months from now September 4th 2026.
-
I think we've already started going towards post labor economics we just have to define a debate on how quickly it'll affect unemployment rates and if UBI systems will be in place.
Alex Karp CEO of Palentir is already talking about nationalization of AI and the Canadian Senate is going over UBI bills right now with Bill S-206 so it is a known issue that's already in process.
https://x.com/SulkinMaya/status/2028866859756408867
https://www.parl.ca/legisinfo/en/bill/45-1/s-206
-
Well yeah you can pretty much guarantee it turns the dating market even more hypergamous and polyamory takes over especially combined with the K shaped recovery that I mentioned in the original post. It's a good thing if you're a motivated man, the average man is doing worse than ever so might as well date many women I agree.
-
@Leo Gura That's why crypto and blockchains exist to transact outside of a locked national currency system and there are many ways for savy people to get around tech bans like VPNs, Proxies and TOR network. AI gives the average person leverage against state run institutions. An organization of 20 people running $10K of hardware and AI tools can have the impact of a previously $1B organization in narrow focuses I believe.
-
38 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:Dude. I am a game developer. I know game development better than 99% of people. What you are talking about is pure hype and nonsense. No AI can create a worthwhile video game. You don't understand how difficult game dev is.
I mean we have to define the nature of the argument we're having in regards to game dev. All I'm saying is AI agents and AI generative graphics will massively enhance what a single or a small team of developers can do. Really good thing for that industry as well as Movies/Anime that can now be done by a few creative individuals instead of being gatekepts by the big studios that produce mass mass market nonsense.
37 minutes ago, aurum said:I don't know If there will be a huge crash per se, but I know many of these big AI companies are overhyped right now.
They will not create AGI any time soon. These CEOs are betting on that scaling compute is enough, and it very clearly isn't. They need that to be true, because that theory is what fueled the success of these companies in the first place. We got GPT-3 and the other current LLMs because of scaling. If scaling doesn't work moving forward, they are cooked.
What we have instead is a non-intelligent tool (LLMs) that appear useful in some limited contexts such as coding, customer service and brute-force calculation. But this does not justify the insane amount of money coming into these companies.
These companies are investing in infrastructure assuming trillions in revenue over the next couple of years from AGI. This is laughable. They are in way over their heads with their own investments.
All this infrastructure may later turn out to be useful once it's already built, but either way that doesn't mean it isn't going to crash on them before that happens. It very well could.
Also have to define what we have by AGI like what is the benchmarks that qualifies as such for you guys? We aren't even close to what massive increases in compute would do with the current architecture that we have today let alone the pile of cutting edge frameworks that have not been implemented yet like Spiking Neural Networks, Liquid Neural Networks and Hyperdimensional Computing.
There is just no way that we will see a crash in the likes of the 2008 subprime crash. It's just a different sector of the economy the cascading effects of a few tech companies going bankrupt wouldn't have nearly as big of an effect. The 2020 covid crash tanked the S&P 500 30% in a few weeks and halted the whole global economy and the recovery was swift, any AI crash would be much smaller then that.
23 minutes ago, Peo said:Bruh a AI girlfriend on your phone is kinda cringe. How can an AI on phone be more interesting then a real life human partner?
You can't feel the touch of human skin on your phone. How are you supposed to have sex with your AI girlfriend on your phone.
It's not an or but an and. You can have "sex" with porn just fine right? People will pursue real companions alongside real ones and that will be a new dynamic to navigate and some people will replace it entirely.
This is not a hypothetical btw. Apparently a third of american teenagers have tried an AI relationship and over 500,000,000 people in china are in some form of emotional support relationship with a platform. I mean it also changes the definition of girlfriend, you mean someone who you fuck or someone who is part of your daily life? I don't consider Google my girlfirend but I tell gemini a lot about my states of mind and ideas and goals and dreams for the future and it remember them and gives me its thoughts daily.
Also consider that the next big consumer platform is augmented reality glasses. So you will have even your AI platonic as a human character that is in the room "physically" with you and could literally go walk down the street with you or go to the club. The transition will be pretty seemless from an agent that you consult on your marketing strategy to your accounting strategy to what outfit suits you better to what you should eat to sitting with you in the restaurant. Whether you choose to call that agent your partner and entangle it in your sex life is up to you but I would seriously bet that pretty much all of us will.
That's just one type of alternative relationship that is gonna keep growing. I would call the onlyfans girls phenomena a relationship dynamic of its own, its human woman selling the visuals and idea of her sexuality and intimacy to masses of male and a tech platform facilitating the exchange.
There is also couples that fuck eachother and others on camera and financialize their lifestyle that way instead of fitting into a regular corporate/social structure. Prime example Lena the plug and Adam 22. It's a direct result of tech platforms allowing their relationship to unfold in different ways.
21t century is the century of abundance. Abundance of money, abundance of relationship potential. Of course to the average conservative it's doomsday but I mean to each their own version of utopia.
You have more freedom than ever as an individual. And you are pretty much now today at the point where you can ask Claude code help me build a $1M/year revenue lifestyle freedom business and it'll work with you daily to achieve it.
-
Leo I don't know what to tell you man I think think you're basically close to 100% out of the loop on this.
18 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:If you think AI will make a video game for you, you are out of your mind. NPCs dialogue is an insignificant aspect of video games. No one cares about your chat-bot NPC.
You are already pretty close to being able to create a whole game with physics engine, novel characters, custom gameplay and a logic system off of a single prompt.
Why do you reduce AI agents's potential in gaming to quirky dialogue? You could make an alternative american Civil war campaign where the confederates somehow allied with Canada and Mexico against the Union and have a whole alternative history plotline with characters that live out a 24 hour storyline with real strategy and twitsts where players log in to take part of an ongoing campaign. So many cool ideas that were never possible beforehand.
The game I wanna make will simulate a fantasy 15th century europe with active AI agents that operate jobs and labor for a crypto token with a whole simulated economy. That level of game has never been close to being possible before.
18 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:AI girlfriend is such a cringe notion.
Let's have this conversation again in 5 years when everyone on this forum including you has one. Human relationships are gonna change forever. You're already pretty close to having a companion on your phone that answers your every question and is a more interesting conversation partner than most humans that don't use AI.
It won't transition to a weird dystopia it'll just empower people to have more intentional relationships on their terms. Human connections will be more powerful than ever. Do you really put human relationships on such a pedestal? A lot of couples you could literally plot their conversations on a flowchart and be accurate in a majority of cases, consciousness has patterns. That's the whole idea of pickup you can go out and have the same conversations over years with 100% different people because conversation threading is pretty similar across people.
-
Simply not true. AI tools can already be put together to automate simple tasks in common businesses like for example AI receptionists. I would not underestimate how quickly this will spread because of how efficient it is. If I have one dentist as a marketing client servicing 100 of them is a huge expense and will eventually kill margins which is why most marketing agencies have a soft ceilling at around 10M annual revenue. Installing the exact same app across 100 dentists that gets progressively better each month as I enhance it's workflows and new models comes out makes these deployments exponentially scalable.
It's not foulproof yet but it's already being sold en masse today, I was thinking of getting into that business. Software companies build AI solutions that AI service providers then resell and that same revolution is coming to enterprise software and basically most of the tasks employees do.
Most junior employees are not that useful they do very standardizable tasks. The way LLMs are trained and employees are trained towards reducing errors hopefully towards 0 is a similar framework.
The biggest bottleneck right now is model hallucination and lack of coherence that previously bottlenecked long term AI Agent deployment but their capacity has already way improved and is doing so by the day.
How much have you played around with these AI models they're way more advanced and useful than they seem. They already reduce workload drastically. I'm starting to use them for boring cashflow businesses but also for my web 3 VR MMORPG passion project. AI agent NPCs in gaming are gonna be a huge revolution and an interesting tangent to the AI boyfriend/girlfriend. You will be able to get an AI girlfriend witch that goes on a multi month long raid with you and remembers all conversations and your daily struggles that you share with her. That same compute memory is gonna be what's used to replace tech workers en masse and soon enough physical workers with robotics en masse.
There are so many ways to monetize this that I think the lack of product market fit that most of companies are experiencing right now is very close to ending.
-
This post is for @Leo Gura and really any other that believe in an AI crash. I will seek to prove that this is basically impossible and AI companies are already in the too big to fail category and ChatGPT moving towards military industrial complex instead of a business to consumer model is a proof of that.
The whole reshoring manufacturing of America over the next 10 years is based on their tech supremacy. Remember the whole meme of american workers retuning to work in factories?
Obviously that will not happen and the US will aim to be a robotics and automation leader, which it's already well positioned to do.
A K shaped crash will absolutely happen and will serve in further squeezing the middle class into nothing as their labor becomes literally obsolete.
Leo your idea that AI value is based on AGI is misguided. AI value prop is based on enterprise workforce. The whole overinflated valuation of the market is based on the premise that AI agents can replace human employees en masse. That premise is still up in the air but as someone who works with AI tools and automation daily I'd say it's already a done deal, the macro forces are just too powerful and humans not adaptable enough.
It's also heavily based in the military industrial complex really as you print money to make top tier weapons with which you secure global trade and force countries into doing commerce under your umbrella and get rich off of financialization and exporting the USD. The US has just proved in its Maduro operation and its Iran strikes that their military supremacy is as unchallenged as ever and the whole tech-AI industry fits right into that.
Having said this I would say that claiming that an AI bubble crash is imminent or even likely has a MASSIVE BURDEN OF PROOF under it and I invite anybody to try and make an argument and case for it.
I'm pretty confident that the corporate layoffs we've been seeing will keep accelerating throughout this year and it's highly likely that Trump and his Tech buddies will introduce some sort of UBI promise this year with the primaries to secure their votes and burry their epstein scandal further.
-
@zazen Sure but keep in mind western platforms are freeer than their counterparts you can't compare them on equal footing. Libertarianism and the freedom of the individual against the repression of the collective is most alive in the united states over any other nation on earth as far as I'm aware. To the point where it's detrimental to themselves but the US can stand on moral high ground in terms of calling out repression in pretty much any other nation state.
@Vynce You cannot keep your country isolated in the 21st century nor could you ever really. Isolationist policies will be crushed by alternatives once they come forth. Soon America will start exporting its AI agents that can run without an internet connection and contain the whole internet within them in a $50 device and this will eventually bring down any sort of internet firewall the russian, chinese and north korean included. Our species will be united before the turn of the century. Our incentives towards unity are much greater than towards mutual destruction or even a prolonged cold war situation.
-
5 hours ago, zazen said:Iran literally cooperated and achieved the JCPOA that was then torn up by the US unilaterally. They were surprise attacked last year during negotiations, and again this year AFTER massive cooperation and concessions on nucle
The Western imperial mindset and its flawed foreign policy is a result of its own entitlement and arrogance. Anyone's independence anywhere, is a threat to there supremacy everywhere.
This is the same reason why it’s unable to see or accept that another country may have its own interests or security concerns ie red lines. This blindness to the ''other'' is what caused Russia's red lines being crossed resulting in Ukraine, Iran's red lines being crossed resulting in the current show, and what could cause China's red line being crossed in the future if this arrogance continues.
Other countries and cultures have their own civilizational identity and path of developing that shouldn't continuously be sabotaged by external pressure of containment. The West talks about liberal values being universal as if other peoples don't have them and are backward for not living up to them - but these are simply common values that are lived up to depending on the stage a countries in. During early phases of stability and security other values take a central role - its phase dependent.
The West had its 2-3 centuries of colonialism that externalized chaos and allowed for the geopolitical luxury of riches and stability that allowed them to liberalize a lot more and live up to those aspirational values better. This is being sabotaged for other countries due to geopolitics and empire - and then those countries are continuously judged for not being ''liberal democracies''. Not all countries are even supposed to or will look the same as Western liberal democracies either and that's fine.
We shouldn't glaze the Western model of governance - there are other ways of structuring society and having legitimacy. China has performance legitimacy, the West has procedural legitimacy. We have elected officials that often result in low approval whilst the middle class gets hollowed out by oligarch overlords each election cycle - we put up with it because we believe in the procedure of elections being able to change outcomes. ''Maduro and Ayotollah have low approval so we must regime change them'' yeah so does my own prime minister Keir Starmer with record lows - should we now call the US ''democracy as a service subscription'' for regime change to take him out just like Maduro lol
Hard times due to external geopolitics only entrenches hardliners and sabotages organic reform and development. Perhaps allow countries breathing room to develop on their own path. Countries can be internally bad (repressive etc) whilst also understandably be trying to navigate a geopolitical order under which their constrained.
I think you make some good points but are ultimately incorrect. Western values are not "western" they are basically the bastion of democracy and standardized democracy in a box. This is why western and particularly british culture was so efficient at colonization because their culture is built on harmonizing a great group of people.
You cannot make a credible towards the legitimacy of the Iranian government while ignoring that they govern WITHOUT THE CONSENT OF THEIR PEOPLE AND HAVE TO SHOOT THEM TO KEEP THEM IN LINE. Say about them what you will but 1 person getting shot by American authorities creates national crisis. In other big states like China this level of government repression is accepted and carefully handled and managed.
If you gave each individual human on earth freedom of speech, autonomy and leverage to act against it's government most national governments on earth would crumble but the western ones would be the most resilient as they already most represent the will of its people.
Not that it's a perfect system the US and the west as a trust based societies are collapsing but a great part of that is due to harmonizing global populations mostly successfully.
-
6 hours ago, bazera said:What do you mean AI pictures of clients?
What specific ways do you use AI for dating photography?
You do editing with AI instead of traditional Adobe way?
Right now I do actual photoshoots with light retouching with Photoshoot/lightroom/Faceapp. It's been shown to me though that people can replicate full photoshoots with just living room face pictures at a fraction of the cost and similar if not better results so I have to do my own tests and be able to produce the cutting edge AI pictures to remain industry leading.
I thought it would come up as fake but unless you go overboard I know a guy who got a GF off of fully AI pictures and over multiple dates with different women didn't come up as a topic of conversation.
-
I have to learn how to produce high quality AI pictures of clients and also some kind of real life socialization component to stand on top of the marketplace. I do dating photography as one of my businesses.
-
You think they're doing it out of the concern for the mental health of their citizens? They have their own platforms like VK, OK.ru and Telegram. They do it to control the tech platforms their citizens use for maximum tracking and surveillance. Just like China does and how Trump made his own apps. Smart strategy but bad for their citizens. You would hope as a citizen to have access to global communications network and news.
If China undid their great Chinese firewall it would probably singlehandedly bring down their regime. I believe all these closed systems will soon fall and humankind will unite under one system. Cryptocurrency and blockchains are the start of such a system.
-
I've been working on my business for a couple years now and I like some stuff about how I'm positioned (photographer + personal branding for single men) but there's a few things I don't like about it mainly the small ticket price per transaction and the client quality. I currently have one main client who I recolated to a new city to work with and it's been a really cool experience as he's a multimillionaire in his mid 40s so every conversation with him is a learning experience whereas when I deal with my average client it's more of a coaching experience which leaves me drained at the end of it.
Alex Hormozi talks a lot about ideal so it's something I've been thinking about for a while. I also have been looking into AI agents and how to use that to improve the leverage in my business and give me more time freedom. I have a friend which I met here in Canada that now mainly lives in Madrid spain and we've been talking about business we could do together and I got the idea of an expat business to help people tired with the cold climate in Canada to have a more fun European lifestyle and relocate themselves or diversify their assets into it. I don't have too much experience in the financial industry but it is an area I've sent hundreds of hours studying over the past couple years due to my interest in crypto.
My main business skillset right now is 1) online lead acquisition through ads and 2) content production. If I enhance those 2 skills with the AI agents and pivot my niche to the expat business to aim for a higher lifetime value per client, I came to the conclusion that a main moat I will have over my competitors is transparency and truth. It will ultimately come to being a people and relationship based business where truth and integrity is paramount otherwise the value proposition I would offer is nill if not negative. It's a cool way to think about it as I see a lot of people on here overthink morality, ethics and truth in your business. Ultimately what you're selling in life is your time and how you allocate it to the other humans on the planet so I think that as long as I keep my integrity high and my value high to my new customer segmentation I think it'll be a success.
I will keep you guys updated on this new business venture and if you're interested in reading or watching my thoughts more in depth I have a business journal I started in the journal section of the forum a couple of weeks ago tracking my progress.
I hope to inspire other new and current entrepreneurs in identifying their north star values in their own entrepreneurial ventures and how deviating from them can ruin the foundational value of our products and services.
-
Awesome that's a good start. A good tip is to start posting 2 reels every single day about it. Depending on your editing skills it should get you 200-1500 views per reel. You can post 2 a day and then also repost the same pieces of content on Tiktok/Youtube shorts and now you have 6 pieces of daily content daily so 42 weekly, which is probably way more than you're doing now.
It's a simple content workflow I've been using for the lifestyle podcast Youtube channel I manage and it works pretty well in terms of value per time of work invested.
-
5 minutes ago, Rafael Thundercat said:Bibi Interview
Of course, of course if full of deception and lies.
Which part of what he said do you think is demonstrably false?
-
@Hatfort The number of 3000 deaths is false data by the regime. The death toll has been confirmed up to 7000 and could be as high as 30 000.
Plenty of Iranians have been seen celebrating the death of the Ayatollah and literally doing the trump dance on the streets. The CIA/Mossad helped the protests go on but they are protesting a dictatorial authoritarian regime that doesn't let ideological opponents campaign in their country. Saying that Iran has free elections is a crazy take.
-
No I just said it's an idea that came to me not that I am currently doing it. I'm an entrepreneur so I get ideas from situations. I'm just sharing that you should be also thinking of helping the situation over there instead of rejoicing for their downfall. It's a low consciousness way to think.
-
@Hatfort None of these countries have a morality police nor have killed thousands of their own protesting citizens. If you're standing up for the corrupt regime of Iran that's gonna be a high standard of argumentation.
-
1 hour ago, AION said:No, it is about false promises. If somebody makes a false promise, I'm never going to trust that person again. Same counts for countries. They said UEA was the safest country in the world and everybody with two brain cells knew that was not true. But they attracted all the idiots of the world and now shit show is unfolding. Tragicomedy at its best. No TV show is better than this.
You have a lot of ego and toxicity towards it. People were simply looking for a low tax jurisdiction and will now look elsewhere for it.
I was thinking of starting an expat business so now I I will have a new wave of leads to pick from. People are just looking for safety and prosperity, I wouldn't demonize that and then take sadistic join in their unfortunate circumstances. Humanity will find peace soon enough, I believe it.
-
Good can always been found out of bad.
I had watched this Alex Hormozi video recently and in it he breaks down customer segmentation where 90% of wealth is held by the top 1% and shoul be target as your customer base to scale easier.
I have a realtor friend who I met while in Calgary who owns a few properties in Toronto but now lives in Madrid a lot of the year. We've talked previously about doing some business stuff together as he's also in self-development and was part of a few of my groups. We talked about advertising towards Toronto based expats who would like to relocate themselves or move some of their assets to europe/spain/madrid.
The current conflict in the middle east makes this opportunity even more pressing as it now becomes a hotbed for conflict and rich people/assets/the market as a whole hates conflict and uncertainty.
I'll be talking to a buddy of mine tonight and seeing if he's down to help with this idea and help build a platform targeted at asset listings in Europe and expat arbitrage opportunities, similar to Nomad Capitalist.
Super excited about this as my previous business ventures have mostly targeted low income segmentation of the market and that has so much headaches associated to it. I'm also really into politics so having high net-worth clients creates unite opportunities for high status networking.
-
You mean literally go up in smoke due to property damage or the valuation will plummet due to instability in the city? I think yeah as a premiere destination it's gonna fall a few ranks for sure. It's uncertain how long the middle east conflict will last for but being able to be bombed at any time is bad for property value.
-
How do you plan on acquiring your initial 100 users? Do you have an outreach/marketing strategy?
in Life Purpose, Career, Entrepreneurship, Finance
Posted
@UnbornTao Humans also struggle to get basic information right and are less prone towards improving.
@Leo Gura Young men struggling with dating is not the only nor probably main market for this. Plenty of elderly people are not in relationships and struggle with intimacy. Women are having a huge dating crisis as well.
I don't think you should simply judge it as pathetic incels. It's just the road to least resistance. Equally AI can coach you into getting a high quality companion. What percentage of the population do you think has read a dating book in their life today? Why would they get a dating coach, they'll just take the predictable consumer solution to the problem. It's a weird future but it will be personalized so you get to pick what you want. To me I like the harem idea so I will date many women and I mean why not an AI girlfriend on top seems fun. The sky is the limit.