Leo Gura

Make Your 2020 General Election Predictions Here!

2,415 posts in this topic

45 minutes ago, DocWatts said:

@Forestluv My primary concern is for mail in ballots that arrive after Nov 3 being successfully contested in Courts by partisan judges and thrown out, and not being represented in the initial Totals. So yes, the 'before' part is what I was referring to.

If Biden needs mail in votes that arrived after Nov. 3rd, he is in big trouble

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They are both in their 70th so I guess that not much will change after Biden wins because he will not be able to run the USA physically, my opinion.

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24 minutes ago, Deco Rim said:

They are both in their 70th so I guess that not much will change after Biden wins because he will not be able to run the USA physically, my opinion.

no


Intrinsic joy = being x meaning ²

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1 hour ago, Deco Rim said:

They are both in their 70th so I guess that not much will change after Biden wins because he will not be able to run the USA physically, my opinion.

Most people I have talked to are banking on Biden not being able to even finish out his first term, leading to the Harris presidency. I'd like to think that the Democrats knew the American people would never vote in a black/Indian left leaning woman for president, so they used Biden, an old man on his way out, as a Trojan horse to get who they really wanted in the white house. But that's just a dream theory I cooked up with no real basis in truth. 

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I am thinking of upgrading my prediction to a Blue Wave Biden landslide. It just holistically feels like the correct prediction.


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1 hour ago, Leo Gura said:

I am thinking of upgrading my prediction to a Blue Wave Biden landslide. It just holistically feels like the correct prediction.

Ahh! So, you're now back to being in a more optimistic mood about Biden winning. lol

Actually, check this out this latest prediction that Cenk made last night: 

 

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I'm not optimistic enough to give Biden Florida.


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I think Florida will go red. 

 


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8 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

I'm not optimistic enough to give Trump Florida.

Are you switching Florida to the Biden? 

 

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1 hour ago, Forestluv said:

Are you switching Florida to the Biden?

Oops, typo.

No, I'm gonna bet that you can't fix Florida crazy :P

Florida goes red.


You are God. You are Truth. You are Love. You are Infinity.

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Last night my parents told me there's a big red wave coming to woop our new agey asses. I told them that I only see blue waves at the beach but they didn't listen.

So you new ages better watch your asses.

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I'm only scared for Michigan and Ohio and Pennsylvania. 

I hope these go blue. 

 


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Red Wave? Lol. I'm still waiting for that Red Wave they promised us in 2018.

Trump has a small chance of winning, but it will definitely not be a Red Wave. If he wins, it will be by the skin of his teeth.


You are God. You are Truth. You are Love. You are Infinity.

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If Trump wins, i can't wait to come to this forum to see all the triggered SJW cry! 

And i can't wait for the Leo Video,that will be uploaded on his blog,ranting about how bad Trump is!!! I just can't wait to laugh as hard as possible!!!

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@Leo Gura The polls are misleading,eg. in my village in Romania,there is a great mayor that did a ton of good things for the village,and the former mayor,corrupt AF ,who had done nothing,ran again for the mayor office,everybody i knew,and everybody in general said prior the election that they will vote for the great mayor,after the election,the great mayor won,but from 2000 people that voted,the great mayor only got 1200 votes,800 people voted for the corrupt,and useless mayor, and prior the election,everybody,virtually everybody said that will vote the great mayor! The takeaway of this story is that people lie who they vote for just to not be judged by the others! Likewise the polls in America,everybody says that Biden is the positive change,but a lot of people that publicly say that will vote Biden, will vote for Trump,because regular people percieve Trump as a leader,and Biden as a slouch! 

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If Trump wins, there will be no video, only a Picard facepalm at the collective stupidity of Americans.


You are God. You are Truth. You are Love. You are Infinity.

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12 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

If Trump wins, there will be no video, only a Picard facepalm at the collective stupidity of Americans.

Haha yep. 


INFJ-T,ptsd,BPD, autism, anger issues

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5 hours ago, Dany Balan said:

If Trump wins, i can't wait to come to this forum to see all the triggered SJW cry! 

?


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For interested in prediction models like 538, keep in mind that a "90% chance for a Biden win" does not necessary mean a conniving win. Some of the data points within the 90% are narrow Biden wins of just a few EVs. Some of the data points are a solid win and some data points are a landslide win. 

Yet all the data points within Trump's 10% chance are narrow wins. 

It would be like having a random male basketball player behind door #1 and a random male from the general population behind door #2. There is a 90% chance the basketball player will be taller - anywhere from a little bit taller to much taller. In the 10% chance the regular dude is taller, he would probably just be a little bit taller than the basketball player. 

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