The AI crash is impossible - Change my View

[AerisVahnEphelia]

13 minutes ago, LordFall said:

@AerisVahnEphelia Between 1978 and 2020 China has lifted 800 million out of poverty which was 75% of the upward mobility from poverty that mankind as a whole has made.

I'm extremely impressed with how China run their country especially in the last 5 years when the west has devolved into a clown show. Chine was fear mongered for authoritarianism and centralized power but looks like their system works better than western liberalism and the west has just as much corruption if not more. 

In an ideal world you could have pure freedom and pure progress but in our world that seems quite difficult to achieve. I don't doubt that will be at the forefront of what humanity will achieve over the next 15 years and throughout the AI revolution as a whole. 

You're invested? I was a big fan of Crypto but the more I age and the more I talk to Gemini about it the more I realize some enthusiasm is valid but a lot of it is speculation for the sake of avoiding producing actual value through your own commerce or career. I still study macroeconomics and I'm curious how it will move over the next 6 months but I'm much more dialed in to my own business now instead of hoping that by studying 200 hours of crypto theory I can 100x my money. 

Western liberalism & Democracy isn't efficient.

I believe the intelligent & smart elites shall rules but still receive feedback from the people. 

Basically I share the view of Platon entirely on the matter.
 

Edited Thursday at 06:10 AM by AerisVahnEphelia

[KosmicGeng]

If they build the competence, A.I and automation is in industry forever, I am bombarded with news idk, China is going to be unstopable to some extend, living there showed me some benefits, and facing similar discrimination here etc. Some chinese women solved the Zeta-Rieman function finally, I wonder if it's just the affect of lucifer and lord sun, to be a bit mystical, but it's very evident, that growing-up in China is very different, A.I will most likely be in everything, people underestimate how much people are just doing any automation at all the core point will be regulating A.I, so we're not entirely taking our jobs & work away, but working alongside A.I is still very fascinating to me, anyhow

[KosmicGeng]

Also the post of A.I is profitable from the mod, shows Nvidia is making massiv profits, I invested into crypto etc. and started to stack, I had a good ROI for what I invested, there are some other things people who're unaware of investing will miss, and I will not share that information, as I feel robbed by Leo's politics about this, and just the sheer issues this plattform costs, and this is a massiv gut feeling. just speaking with anyone here about this was corrupt a.f

 

[OBEler]

@LordFall lol my bad.. Btc is up 78k and we still have 2 weeks to 04. September 

It seems your prediction is right in the end. 

[Leo Gura]

Don't get seduced by hype and collective mania.

This hype cycle will not last because it is not grounded in reality.

As fast as crypto rises, it will fall even faster once the collective hypnosis breaks.

Edited 16 hours ago by Leo Gura

[Thought Art]

10 hours ago, KosmicGeng said:

If they build the competence, A.I and automation is in industry forever,

AI not environmentally viable the data centres aren’t worth the pollution they create, or the resources they waste. They take so much energy and for AI to replace many humans it’s very expensive to maintain. 
 

Another issue with AI is that is hasn’t been proven. Businesses truly don’t know how people will use AI and if it can truly replace humans. We over estimate how intelligent we as humans are, even without the pure power we see in AI. We are more intelligent then AI. 

[LordFall]

1 hour ago, OBEler said:

@LordFall lol my bad.. Btc is up 78k and we still have 2 weeks to 04. September 

It seems your prediction is right in the end. 

Do you believe in it or are you just excited to see numbers go up? 

I believe in financial education and perhaps investing some disposable income in crypto will pay off but it's 100% a speculative asset.

Bro I started an investing brand and got girls to shoot content with me but that was 70% crypto bro stuff lol the more I study macroeconomics the more I realize I don't understand it as much as I should. I was trolling people with a realistic investment strategy not that long ago. 

https://www.instagram.com/p/DMOGgmnS5tN/?img_index=1

 

Be careful what you see on the Internet lmao 

My investment recommendations have to be heavily catered to the specific risk profile of the individual. If you wanna throw $500 in Bitcoin and hope it goes to $1M go ahead but it could just as easily go to $0. I believe mostly in leverage which just means getting more output than you put in and sure investing is one way to do that but business is gonna be a more reliable one. We should heavily discuss it because once again financial education is important but I would stick more with boring personal financial advice Dave Ramsey style than speculative investment. 

I talked a lot to Gemini about it and I realize my interest in Crypto is well genuine but a lot of it is driven by me wanting to leverage my intellect to avoid hard work. I don't recommend falling into that same mistake, I mostly have made money from Crypto but it was mostly luck, plenty of people smarter and more knowledgeable than me have lost money.  

I'm learning to have more responsibility with the power I have so if you want to learn how to meet women and build a social circle and shoot some media around that I have a pretty good track record with that and am probably the top authority on the forum by far in that regards. 

The downfall of Grant Cardone disappointed me and I'm trying to learn to get away from this always appearing certain and confident culture. It first of all doesn't work and collapses basically inevitably and also you should build competence in one main area and not deviate too much from your expertise otherwise you become a pseudo-intellectual very fast. 

Edited 15 hours ago by LordFall

[vinc3nc]

2 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

Don't get seduced by hype and collective mania.

This hype cycle will not last because it is not grounded in reality.

As fast as crypto rises, it will fall even faster once the collective hypnosis breaks.

With this BTC rally, it's a high chance the bottom is in.

[Leo Gura]

1 hour ago, vinc3nc said:

With this BTC rally, it's a high chance the bottom is in.

These rallies don't matter because if the stock market crashes from the AI bubble bursting, crypto will crater. How much it rallies until then is like celebrating your birthday with champagne on the Titanic.

If you think crypto will stay steady during an AI bubble pop, you are deeply mistaken. You are betting that the AI bubble will never pop, which is a bad bet.

You are on the deck of the Titanic cheering about a rally.

Edited 12 hours ago by Leo Gura

[LordFall]

2 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

These rallies don't matter because if the stock market crashes from the AI bubble bursting, crypto will crater. How much it rallies until then is like celebrating your birthday with champagne on the Titanic.

If you think crypto will stay steady during an AI bubble pop, you are deeply mistaken. You are betting that the AI bubble will never pop, which is a bad bet.

You are on the deck of the Titanic cheering about a rally.

I think you're right. Seems like the US is selling their long bonds to inject liquidity into the market short term which is mostly what is causing the pump since it wrecked the shorters and they had to buy back so it increased the price by 20% in a week. Sounds like overall terrible economic policy that will indeed lead to a crash. These guys are not dumb though so probably some sort of scheme to make the corrupt admin some money and cause a massive market crash right around midterms.

 

6 hours ago, OBEler said:

@LordFall lol my bad.. Btc is up 78k and we still have 2 weeks to 04. September 

It seems your prediction is right in the end. 

My new prediction is $30K USD Bitcoin by January 1st 2027. Let's see if I can do it again

Sorry I'll go $45K USD the more I talk to Gemini about it the more it says it's gonna be most likely around there and $30K you would need a black swan event.  

Edited 10 hours ago by LordFall

[Joseph Maynor]

I think AI is here to stay.  It is useful where it is useful.  I'm using it less lately. 

[KosmicGeng]

11 hours ago, Thought Art said:

AI not environmentally viable the data centres aren’t worth the pollution they create, or the resources they waste. They take so much energy and for AI to replace many humans it’s very expensive to maintain. 
 

Another issue with AI is that is hasn’t been proven. Businesses truly don’t know how people will use AI and if it can truly replace humans. We over estimate how intelligent we as humans are, even without the pure power we see in AI. We are more intelligent then AI. 

It's not about replacing humans, but you can't decide for greedy profit makers to remove them, a lot of A.I usage saves me personally a lot of human effort in areas, where you can gain competence fast and also increase the productivity of the worker, there is no need to ask uneccessary questions, and you have the abillity to use it as an inquiry tool, the whole point is not to get sucked into the power mania, the A.I usage can create, some seem prone to that? I don't personally for me it's a holistic competence tool, I can get to a lot of questions and ask questions that get to the bottom of a problem or raise the understanding that get's you to solve and understand the root problem, it's the best tool for inquiry ever created, the whole point is it helps to deal and avoid, neurotic, hystorianic, and extroverted freaks who're just out there for their old money, and have 0 moral qualms about anything.

I use solar energy provider for my energy, they offer also a lot of products in that regard, but I did not have the luxury to get into it, so I am forced to deal with an enviroment that is stupid enough to make me use more energy.

Yes businesses have no idea, if they would use it properly they would remove themselves very quickly as they would see their own corruption, there is no need to constantly network and creat feast to make decisions, the rooms would be smaller, the information denser, and more critical, and you can easily release a couple of people who're just there for the image of the company, as they make the company look good etc. but 


Also you're underestimating how real this war is in Iran for just atomaric power, a lot of kids/youth are steadily using renewable energy types of devices with scooters, e-bikes, and they are all hooked on the power grid, serves, cloud-serves, aps, authenticators etc. all of this in the end is connected to software and hence a.i or not, if you use an app, everyone who uses android studio as gemini included, it's not a matter if it's enviromentally viable, the whole point is could we even now produce enough energy to be enviromentally viable, or are we just gaslighting via development to feel better about ourselves, or actually care? For e.g I hate using the dish washer for what I cook, but they create appartements so small, I am almost force to run this things 2-3 times a day for what my body needs, and I buy a lot of enviromentally friendly products, the core issue is the denial of the modernists to move back to such a restrctive force of development, especially with boomers etc. it will be impossible, and the newer generation is as dumb as a brick to me, they would care mostly about what new ideas exist even to create new energy, Sam Altman has some offers, but it's been some time till I got into investments, through this fucking shit gaslighting with helping africa, I fucking hate it, most should go there first before they even post a video. 

Even if we're more intelligent then A.I and businesses know more how people use a.i as they are constantly collecting usage data, it's more about control, not replacing humans, and yes I agree we're more intelligent than A.I if I have a creative insight for a prompt the same type of consciousness moves into the A.I and it generates the intutive response, or I can just do it solo, but the core issue not using A.I is highly restrictive and limits humans potential, as you can just ask a lot of deep questions and get deep answers, most humans will not be able to answer you, as A.I mirrors your level of consciousness and most humans can't if you come from a high level of consciousness and insight, most humans will not understand untill you move their heart into a insight, that is my experience. 

A.I is here to stay, I worked in 3 tech companies making it work, and it was a hot seat also from the very start almost working at the depth of it, but the core issue is simply I was hated online, got hacked by chinese people, my steam account got hacked, the A.I & security field will be way hotter in the next years and now, then the A.I human creation part, NLP, creating translations for museums, holograms, AR etc. 

A.I is simply using mathematical formulations to create autmative value that is a very simple explanation, but it also includes a lot of advanced mathematics, the largest gain I see in using A.I i can upgrade my own intutive insights, without making it a constant memory based clarification, as this chiefdom type of old money like Trump technically is consciousness has to go, it's racist a.f from my pov.

The whole point with A.I investment or any investment, if you lack knowledge you will just loose money, and you can simply also hire some people to take care of investments and also invest ethically, A.I & crypto should technically be conscious windfall investments, you invest because you know it can blow up, but you don't rub your fingers and hands like a greedy witch at home and a 3 year old and invest your life savings into it, I did not do that, and invested also into stable tech companies and had a relatively high ROI, for dealing with absolute idiots and sharing information with people that should not have them, I joined some options traiding stuff to test stuff, but I got hacked etc. huge issue with tech security, and a lot of bias also there it's very annoying the modern/ethnocentric underbelly within tech. 

I also worked for ergonomics tech with andorid, but the more you get in it and are critical, you can turn off your w-lan, bluetooth etc. as they all tear massively on your health and heart frequency etc. anyhow I stop I don't expect understanding from this forum. 

Edited 5 hours ago by KosmicGeng

[KosmicGeng]

Crypto should never be the only investment you do, there are many stocks & bonds and profitable ways anyhow I stop  here

Edited 5 hours ago by KosmicGeng

[vinc3nc]

8 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

These rallies don't matter because if the stock market crashes from the AI bubble bursting, crypto will crater. How much it rallies until then is like celebrating your birthday with champagne on the Titanic.

If you think crypto will stay steady during an AI bubble pop, you are deeply mistaken. You are betting that the AI bubble will never pop, which is a bad bet.

You are on the deck of the Titanic cheering about a rally.

I buy when prices are cheap. It's all about buying low. I don't care about AI. It could take a few years before that happens, and I'm not going to be fearful and do nothing just because it might happen at some point. Crypto might complete another bull run before that type of crash.

No risk, no reward. 

[Pudgey]

I'm a software engineer and pretty much use all the AI models for coding, development and as a general tech-stack. For quite sometime, AI didn't have great outputs for code or content: but this is slowly changing. Despite having significant AI slop across the web, you can build almost any software and the content has gotten better with time. But, it does require skill, monitoring and proof-reading as you cannot fully trust AI and it has been known to delete codebases or over-engineer. GPT-models often hallucinate and you need to monitor outputs. 

The AI bubble definitely exist, but not the way many people think (in my opinion). The AI bubble will burst because of China open-weight models compares to or matching US AI-models: China models are very innovative in how they are built, despite being heavily distilled on US models. They do not have access to US-compute, but have figured out a way to make highly intelligent models with millions of dollars, whereas OpenAI and Anthropic are spending and draining billions to train and inference their models to consumer and enterprises. 

US-Enterprises are leaving the 'tokenmaxxing' (maxing token spend) era to 'What's my ROI (return-on-investment) for this API bill from Anthropic?' and recently, AT&T just started using open weight models to reduce their AI bill. They are finding that open weights are just as capable and as intelligent on many coding and agentic tasks. And once one-enterprise does it, many follow suite. 

This glaring issue is: Enterprises subsidizes consumers subscription prices and allows for us to get cheap inference ($200 subscription bill = $8000 in API cost). If enterprises are slowly moving to open weight models and are self-hosting open weight models in-house, this proves that Anthropic and OpenAI do not have a MOAT: it's a game of 'who has the most powerful model' and China has caught up very fast. 

I have used GLM, Kimi-K3 and Deepseek: the intelligence is not too far off and can handle a vast majority of tasks. The scary anti-moat is a Chinese model matching or surpassing Anthropic Mythos (Fable) and allowing it to be downloaded online. This is where US enterprises stop signing those annual contracts and start salivating on saving on costs, training their models (or using China open weight models and doing their own pre-training, like Curser did with their own AI model: Composer) - what's stopping multi-billion dollar enterprises from doing the same? Smaller models for their use-case, rather than a large model retained by devils. Openai/Anthropic have shown to be against open weights (despite them saying they are not, they are full of shit): It goes directly against their IPO and market value. 

Kimi-K3 already stirred the pot in the AI industry (and before that GLM 5.2 and before that, DeepSeek) and if China keeps accelerating their pace, it's going to cause a AI bubble crash (BY ITSELF) and a potential ban from the Trump administration won't stop anything. It used to be: US is better at AI and China was almost a year behind to: anything US can do, China can do (almost) as good.

If it flips to: anything US can do, China can do not just good, but BETTER: US AI companies are fucked (and anyone dependent on the subsidization, such as myself). Although, I believe Google, SpaceXAI and a few other companies will survive the crash and will be able to maintain the user-base. OpenAI and Anthropic has a unforeseeable feature if they do not continue to have the best AI models in town.