Is the government of Iran about to collapse?

[aurum]

15 minutes ago, LordFall said:

we're at most 15 years max from having most forms of violence completely disappear globally

No.

That’s being way too optimistic on new tech.

[LordFall]

49 minutes ago, aurum said:

No.

That’s being way too optimistic on new tech.

Based on what do you say that? Perhaps you're under researched on the topic of AI, robotics and law enforcement. 

[Breakingthewall]

2 hours ago, Jodistrict said:

The Iranian foreign ministry has suggested that Saudi Arabia is involved in the protests, although there is no direct evidence to support that.  

Seems too anti Muslim movement to be supported by Saudi Arabia, but who knows, they are enemies. Most probably by Israel. Anyway, all middle east would be happy if the ayatollahs regime falls. 

[aurum]

5 hours ago, LordFall said:

Based on what do you say that? Perhaps you're under researched on the topic of AI, robotics and law enforcement. 

Based on my understanding of survival and developmental constraints.

It also matters how broad of a definition you are using for "violence". Is a hostile takeover of a corporation violence? Are lawsuits violence? What about exploitive marketing? Drone warfare?

[LordFall]

4 hours ago, aurum said:

Based on my understanding of survival and developmental constraints.

It also matters how broad of a definition you are using for "violence". Is a hostile takeover of a corporation violence? Are lawsuits violence? What about exploitive marketing? Drone warfare?

Only drone warfare is violence in the way it's defined in modern dictionaries: behavior involving physical force intended to hurt, damage, or kill someone or something.

The rest are subjective. Conflict is bound to happen but we can solve physical violent conflict within 20 years globally I'm quite confident. 

[Apparition of Jack]

58 minutes ago, LordFall said:

Only drone warfare is violence in the way it's defined in modern dictionaries: behavior involving physical force intended to hurt, damage, or kill someone or something.

The rest are subjective. Conflict is bound to happen but we can solve physical violent conflict within 20 years globally I'm quite confident. 

I sort of agree. Without wanting to sound too much like a crazy communist, I’d honestly say 95% of modern violence boils down to people living in desperate conditions and fighting over territory / resources just to survive.

Even conflicts that seem on the surface to be more about nationalism / ideology (like Russia vs Ukraine) ultimately boil down to this - Russia is an incredibly poor country with lots of desperation, so it’s better for Putin to use nationalism and militarism to control the people than for them to get crazy ideas like “reform” or “foreign investment.”

I think, if my intuition is correct and we’re going to see a major backlash against the sort of soulless, toxic orange late stage capitalism, countless people around the world will see their material lives improve and their political freedoms grown, giving them less cause to take up arms and shoot their neighbour because they follow the teachings of Saint Zambo the Wise while their neighbours follow the teachings of Saint Jambo the Just

[Lyubov]

12 hours ago, LordFall said:

Based on what do you say that? Perhaps you're under researched on the topic of AI, robotics and law enforcement. 

I honestly don’t buy this tech utopia stuff. This is one of their biggest selling points for CEOs to pillage clean water and enrich themselves. “Just give us time, we will sail off into a tech utopia, manifest destiny!” What eveyone has to realize is little fundamentally changes as long as collectively people are unaligned with spirit. No amount of technological progress will change that. 

Edited Sunday at 07:55 AM by Lyubov

[LordFall]

8 hours ago, Lyubov said:

I honestly don’t buy this tech utopia stuff. This is one of their biggest selling points for CEOs to pillage clean water and enrich themselves. “Just give us time, we will sail off into a tech utopia, manifest destiny!” What eveyone has to realize is little fundamentally changes as long as collectively people are unaligned with spirit. No amount of technological progress will change that. 

Just be honest if your viewpoint is based on your feelings or actual facts about the world. Not that long ago 90% of the population was engaged in farmwork otherwise they would starve. Technology is not utopia it's a real thing. Welcome to the internet here we are. 

 

@Apparition of Jack Yes we're quite close to worldpeace and abundance. The escalation in conflict these last few years are working out the kinks in the system before it aligns. International law will be one of the top issues at play over the next few years until we have actual credible global legislative organizations. 

Edited Sunday at 04:55 PM by LordFall

[zazen]

Hard to get proper information on Iran and it's quite polarized - apparently its on average a third (prob less) who are pro regime, another third anti-regime, and a middle third who fear total collapse and civil unrest so are the undecided middle.

Don't think its close to regime change yet just by going on past history. In the revolution in 1979 the entire oil sector was shut down which impacted the state functioning. Protests were across classes, age groups and country wide. This seems to be more urban youth led but seems to be gaining traction?

The regime can tolerate mass protest and riff raff via harsh policing but once state machinery starts getting affected and defection / walk outs from the IRGC (military) start happening is when things really break. The combination of a teetering undecided middle who hate chaos and fear what would come next + a loyal maybe 20-30% (or less who knows) + the IRGC being intact so far means the regime will most likely remain despite street level tensions. Oil sector boycott / strikes have to happen + IRGC defections.

There's clearly economic grievances massively induced by Western sanctions + demands for reforms and loosening up of theocratic governance or for it to be abolished all together, maybe only remaining symbolically. I think that's what was sort of happening as Masoud Pezeshkian was a reformist voted in in 2024. Hijab enforcement wasn't there according to street vids:

A country can be badly run (repressive, mismanaged etc) but also badass for resisting or not subordinating to Western imperialism (Venezuela, Iran). A lot of the conditions are unilaterally imposed via sanctions which are basically financial WMD. There's 3 kinds of WMD - kinetic (nukes), financial (SWIFT sanctions), geographic (choke points). The US and West have monopoly on financial WMD which is why BRICS+ is looking for a exit / optionality / off ramp / hedge against that veto. Iran has the straight of Hormuz as a important veto chokepoint - if it hadn't perhaps it would have been engaged with earlier in a military sense.

Odd timing to have Bibi and Trump last month around new year speaking on Iran and how they need to get attacked if Iran is pursuing more missiles. It's as if the pre-text is being set up for action and so obviously amplifying the protests which seem to be hijacked by a media eco system of the West and on the ground provocateurs confirmed by Israeli media and Mike Pompeo himself saying Mossad's on the ground.

They could be hoping for this to topple the government and if not, attack while the state is distracted and fractured internally. A lot of people talking of imminent attack and even Iran pre-emptively attacking Israel as to not be on the back foot. I still don't see how they could if 25% of Israel's interceptors got finished in 12 days last time showing how vulnerable Israel is. It takes millions + time to procure more interceptors. If Iran piles down missiles on Israel for 30 days they could be sitting ducks with no interceptors left.

Two videos to get a decent sense of Iran.

First - the bad of it ie theocracy (I know both of them have bias's but its still pretty decent:

Second, the geopolitics of it in which its being boxed in by Western imperialism:

Obviously also biased by omitting Iran's proxy strategy in the region. But the large structural driver is Western subordination coming to heads with a nation wanting to resist that - they have experience and memory of the past (1953 coup) which led to the revolution. Iran has a strong civilizational identity to rally around and a geography that protects them from easy invasions.

The thing with giving a country hard times via economic warfare is that you entrench the hard liners under a seige mentality and give their resistance narrative fuel. The best way to loosen a country up is to create conditions of stability that lead to prosperity. That doesn't mean they become exactly like the liberal West, but they function at a higher level that's sensitive to their own culture.

Why the global south and BRICS is even a thing.

Edited 4 hours ago by zazen

[Husseinisdoingfine]

— 🇮🇷 NEW: Dozens of dead bodies of rioters arrived at Kahrizak medical center for identification by families

https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/27169

[zazen]

The best video to understand Iran from a Iranian American: https://x.com/sharghzadeh/status/2010790722027618359?s=20

Also the below two for the geopolitics:

14min onwards for the following:

Imagine the West claiming it wants to bring democracy to Iran when in 1953 the same West overthrew Iran’s democratically elected leader Mohammad Mossadegh for nationalizing oil - then backed the dictator Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi who crushed democracy through secret police, torture, and repression to protect Western oil interests. 

If the current regime change were to work - there would still be secular authoritarianism needed just to maintain order against a ideological segment of the population who are loyal to the cause, just like the monarchists of past. But also - when you are targeted by the world hegemon due to being geopolitically defiant against being folded into the imperial blob - that invites containment and coercion which then requires a level of centralization and repression to stabilize against it. That then becomes a feed back loop of justification ''see, they're repressive which is why we must bring the evil regime down''. It's a bind of sorts.

No country or state would allow agents of chaos torching buildings and targeting government officials / police to roam free without any crack down. That's the whole point - to provoke a reaction then point the finger to the regime that needs ''democratic shock therapy'' and intervention. It provides a casus belli for by the hegemon not wanting defiance and challengers to the system they dominate in.

Big Uncle Sam crying at its fading primacy and trying to fold any last holdouts of defiance into its imperial blobby bitch tits. ''We're still men'' is metaphor for ''we're still great aren't we?''

Zionists must be crying now because the regime change seems to have calmed down or flopped. Islamaphobe's boners must have also gone limp because ''evil Islam'' hasn't crashed and burned to be replaced by liberal utopia. Passport bro's also pissed cos they can't go after Persian baddies.

[BlueOak]

We are not close to world peace this year as was discussed above. This year is going to be a hellish year with a lot of violence.

There are so many things occurring and so much instability; this is an easy prediction to make.

Edited 55 minutes ago by BlueOak

[AION]

Maduro got sold by his own army. So people think that can happen everywhere. Iran's establishment is to rigid for this to happen. Protestors are going to do their best but they will be crushed.

[LordFall]

@zazen The americans having causes this mess doesn't change the fact that this Islamic theocracy is a terrible government that's not supported by 80-90% of the population.

[PolyPeter]

24 minutes ago, AION said:

but they will be crushed.

What about a possible us intervention soon? trump tweeted something about "help is on its way" 

[LordFall]

4 minutes ago, PolyPeter said:

What about a possible us intervention soon? trump tweeted something about "help is on its way" 

Curious what that entails. The current regime is highly dependent on oil so perhaps they'll strike that(but that would cripple the future of Iranians regardless) or they'll blockade it or they'll go for a leadership decapitation strike and kill/capture the Supreme Leader or prime minister. It would be a much more tactically difficult operation than Venezuela though. Today is gonna be a popcorn type of day I see.