Latest Ukraine/Russia Thread

[NewKidOnTheBlock]

Seems like Vlad is already preparing the public for the negative scenarios (for Russia). At least based on his rhetoric lately. This could be good news for the war and the world and rather realistic based on what I know from some analysts I hold in a high regard. They predicted that 2026 could be the year shit starts going really south for Russia, if Ukraine would last that long

[Lyubov]

Looks like it will be a frozen conflict. The border has hardly moved since 2022. It wasn't inevitable but it was the mostly likely scenario that this would eventually freeze at the current border and both countries would go into a rebuilding phase. 

[BlueOak]

Its not going to freeze. Russia is losing ground and Putin is too proud and arrogant to reverse it. He wants X and like a toddler he's not going to get it for 2 years, the cities he wants near Donbas are fortresses; as a consequence, Russia will (and are) losing southern territory.

This video is for all the people i've argued with, documented 100,000 Russia casualties by only drones over 1 year.
That's just those on video, and only by drones, and only over 1 year.

The original video:
https://x.com/414magyarbirds/status/2062937571429429735/video/1

Russia's supply lines in the south and west are virtually cut off now. They pushed too far too fast, and will retreat to their old lines (which are much more fortified). If a breach happens in them, there isn't going to be much they can do except die or surrender. This is because there is no fuel there to manoeuvre. 

Edited June 10 by BlueOak

[BlueOak]

On 18/03/2026 at 1:41 PM, Karmadhi said:

D-Day, every single campaign in the pacific war, Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan, to name a few

Their revenues will increase greatly from the war in Iran as oil prices increase

Most analysts are saying that including Western ones

Not to mention USA removing some sanctions

The war with Iran is a god send for Russia economically wise

Again, ratios please. Not absolute values.

No they cant because their population is not 5 times higher. if they lost 5 times more they would be forced to do the same full on mobilization as Ukraine did and they have not

How come then Ukraine needs to do a full on mobilization and Russia doesnt?

I didn't answer this as I had no time, but you are just wrong on this one. 
Attackers needing 3:1, this is an accepted reality in most military thinking; your examples are wrong.

Chat GPT Quote Start

D-Day:

Were forces comparable?
❌ No

Allies had:

Overwhelming air superiority
Naval supremacy
Massive logistical advantage

Germany had:

Strong defensive fortifications (Atlantic Wall)
But inferior numbers at the point of landing, and limited mobility

Reality:

This is actually a textbook example of how hard attacking is, even with superiority.

Casualties on beaches like Omaha were extremely high.

Success came from overwhelming force + coordination, not equal forces.

Pacific War campaigns (WWII)
 

Were forces comparable?
❌ No (usually)

Typical pattern:

United States attackers had:

Naval + air dominance
Better supply lines

Japan defenders had:

Fortified islands
Fanatical defense doctrines

Key point:

Battles like Iwo Jima and Okinawa show:

Defenders inflicted enormous casualties despite being outmatched
Attackers only won through overwhelming superiority~

Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan:

Were forces comparable?
❌ No — and also not a success case

Soviet Union:

Mechanized army, air power, heavy weapons

Mujahideen:

Guerrilla fighters, lighter arms, terrain advantage

Outcome:

Soviets failed to achieve strategic victory
Eventually withdrew

Verdict:
➡️ Not comparable forces
➡️ Not even a successful attacker example

 

So… is the original claim true?

❗ The answer you were given is mostly incorrect / misleading

None of those examples show:

“Two roughly equal forces where the attacker had the advantage”

 

What does history actually show?

Across modern warfare (WWI → present):

General pattern:

Defender advantage is strong when forces are comparable

Attackers usually need:

3:1 local superiority (classic military rule of thumb)

Or technological / air / logistical dominance

Why defenders have the edge:

Fortifications & prepared positions
Knowledge of terrain
Shorter supply lines
Ability to absorb attack rather than coordinate one

Are there real examples where attackers win with similar strength?

They do exist, but usually require special conditions, such as:

Surprise (e.g., Six-Day War opening strikes)
Maneuver warfare breakthroughs (e.g., Battle of France)
Collapse of defender morale or command

But even in those:
➡️ The attacker typically has qualitative superiority, not true equality.

Chat GPT End Quote

Russian Oil

Will not, and indeed now have not increased revenues because Russian refineries, ports and infrastructure to ship the oil are cooked. Right now the country is starting to fail.

Russian Casualties
 

CSIS (2026):
https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-grinding-war-ukraine

Russia Matters summary of Western casualty estimates (2026):

https://www.russiamatters.org/news/russia-ukraine-war-report-card/russia-ukraine-war-report-card-june-3-2026

CSIS battlefield losses analysis (2025):
https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-battlefield-woes-ukraine

Many analysts conservatively state 2:1 or 2.5 to 1 ratio of Russian losses to Ukranian losses for the above reasons and all the video evidence we have on Russian tactics and recorded losses. Some believe this is higher for the reasons the GPT laid out above. 

They can indeed keep this up at 5:1, because the entire population is not going to fight.

Russia is a larger country, that's why it didn't need to mobalise as many men, it didn't have an exodus or people/territories captured, also its not been invaded and pressured from multiple directions, meaning it doesn't need to guard several borders, and also it had a standing military (now dead). Finally, it uses up populations from those countries it 'liberates' this is a constant tactic over the centuries from Russian imperialists. However, I would argue they do need to do a larger mobilisation to hold their territory, as they are beginning to lose more than they are gaining.

Edited Wednesday at 05:22 PM by BlueOak

[zazen]

 

On 09/06/2026 at 0:59 PM, BlueOak said:

Its not going to freeze. Russia is losing ground and Putin is too proud and arrogant to reverse it. He wants X and like a toddler he's not going to get it for 2 years, the cities he wants near Donbas are fortresses; as a consequence, Russia will (and are) losing southern territory.

This video is for all the people i've argued with, documented 100,000 Russia casualties by only drones over 1 year.
That's just those on video, and only by drones, and only over 1 year.

The original video:
https://x.com/414magyarbirds/status/2062937571429429735/video/1

Russia's supply lines in the south and west are virtually cut off now. They pushed too far too fast, and will retreat to their old lines (which are much more fortified). If a breach happens in them, there isn't going to be much they can do except die or surrender. This is because there is no fuel there to manoeuvre. 

Drones have really been a asymmetric game changer 

Whether that translates to territorial gains which still requires manpower or a political solution / negotiated end by strengthening their hand / pressuring Russia - remains to be seen.

How Russia responds to this latest strike also remains to be seen. Seems huge.

[Elliott]

3 minutes ago, zazen said:

 

Drones have really been a asymmetric game changer 

Whether that translates to territorial gains which still requires manpower or a political solution / negotiated end by strengthening their hand / pressuring Russia - remains to be seen.

How Russia responds to this latest strike also remains to be seen. Seems huge.

 And then drone hijacking changing that game.... this is going to get exciting, especially if Russia gives these techniques to Cuba.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/05/22/putin-mid-air-hijackings-turn-ukraine-drones-against-europe/

 

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/lithuanias-vilnius-airport-suspends-flights-due-drone-warning-2026-05-20/

Lithuanian lawmakers shelter, Vilnius air traffic suspended due to drone incursion

By Andrius Sytas

May 20, 20263:24 AM EDTUpdated May 20, 2026

 

 

https://apnews.com

A Ukrainian maritime drone explodes at a Romanian Black Sea port. ...

Jun 6, 2026 — The drone that self-detonated in the port of Constanta exploded at around 10:30 a.m., after the area had been secured and isolated by the

[BlueOak]

1 hour ago, zazen said:

 

Drones have really been a asymmetric game changer 

Whether that translates to territorial gains which still requires manpower or a political solution / negotiated end by strengthening their hand / pressuring Russia - remains to be seen.

How Russia responds to this latest strike also remains to be seen. Seems huge.

Its bad because it's Moscow, and all the people with influence live there, its a large % of the population.
But this is going on once a week now almost – huge black oil depots raining oil down over town or city.

Visually it's striking and terrible for the local populations, but the death of the shadow fleet ships and Russia's ports is just as bad, if not worse for the country.

It won't matter who wants what soon, the war is just going to end.

Edited 19 hours ago by BlueOak

[BlueOak]

1 hour ago, Elliott said:

 And then drone hijacking changing that game.... this is going to get exciting, especially if Russia gives these techniques to Cuba.

 

Yeah i've said before, anyone without anti drone weaponry is 3 years behind, anyone without a substantial (and cheap) drone force is 5 years behind. So to my mind Ukraine and Russia are by far the most advanced combat forces on the planet. Its difficult for people to understand but they are actively developing, producing, using and refining drones, whereas other countries are just relying on traditional forces like tanks and apc's.

To further some of your examples.

I am seeing mine laying drones now over logistic routes, which I knew I would. The options for them are vast, and only just being explored. 

Edited 19 hours ago by BlueOak