Latest Ukraine/Russia Thread

[Bjorn K Holmstrom]

51 minutes ago, BlueOak said:

America, China, Russia are all expansionist ... conflicts are all but inevitable
 

That's exactly what the simulation revealed. Even when I designed a settlement where the US gained economically, the simulated NSC still rejected it because China also gained. The system forces everyone into zero-sum thinking regardless of whether they'd personally prefer cooperation.

Your point about countries "caught behind the lines" being in trouble, that matches what the quantitative analysis showed. The system runs on extraction until exhaustion, and whoever's in the wrong place when it crashes pays the price.

Grim, but structurally consistent.

[zazen]

On 12/30/2025 at 3:36 PM, Breakingthewall said:

A puppet, or perhaps a strategic ally, of the world's leading power. China won't let Russia fall because that would weaken its own position.

True - they are complimentary, though asymmetrically with China having a upper hand due to its sheer size. Russia solves some of China's vulnerabilities by being a single resource rich state that isn't hostile. Beyond just energy it also has metals etc it provides. Just geographically it's quite indispensable to China because it firstly provides strategic depth from being encircled from its Western flank, whilst having one of the longest borders in the world be secure due to good relations with its neighbor.

Russia also helps with nuclear know how and military (submarines, engines, early warning defense systems etc) and also operational warfare because it has more experience. That's why they also do many drills together. Russia is a test case proof of systems concept that countries can trade outside the Western system which is weaponized politically - leading the way for other Global South countries to follow suit (majority of the world against a colonial legacy built world order by a Western led 12-15% of the worlds population).

The Arctic is going to be more important over the years also. It has plenty of resources and can cut trade routes by approx 30-40%. Russia gives China a land route option that avoids any type of naval blockade antics by the US. That's why Belt and Road, Silk Road, Arctic pass are invested in - taking away the US's ability to interdict and blockade China on which it is heavily dependent to feed and energize itself.

With Russia having the largest ice breaker fleet and China's capital, tech and infrastructure expertise they can maximize the arctic exploration.This is also why the Trump admin are eyeing Greenland for ''National Security''. They can base up with proximity to Moscow and Russia's core from there.

Speaking of vassalage - Ukraine is literally already there today by being completely reliant on external support from the West who themselves have local democratic politics and fiscal constraints to deal with. US has already minimized funding to pantry amounts (Congress approved, not just Trump), and left the bag with EU to deal with who are scrambling for funds. That's why they need to flirt with using Russian assets which would spectacularly back fire on their own financial systems and investability long term. Ukraine requires 10's to 100's of billions to stay afloat as a rump state with no revenue engine to pay that back unlike Japan and Germany post war. The industry is destroyed or to the East, and grain export isn't enough to cover the bill.

Collapse narratives conflate stress with collapse. Too much catastrophizing. Westerners project their liberal democracy political lens onto a authoritarian centralized state who have levers to pull on and overcome obstacles that democracies would struggle with as people revolt for their freedoms over not ''voting for it''. They also don't seem to have a pulse on things when it comes to the Russian mindset and sentiment. Many Russian's feel to be under seige by a West that demonizes them with their Russiophobia which only galvanizes them even more. In fact Putin is keeping hardliners at bay who would act much more emotionally ie Medvedev and the like.

Most likely no deal is happening - all this 90% agreed upon points mean shit when the 10% are the non-negotiable. After this drone attack on Putin (whether false flag or not) - that seals the fact that things will be decided on the battlefield. Turbulent year ahead it seems.