The Economics of AI Thread

[mmKay]

By now we all can agree that AI is a bubble. Is it a big bubble, small bubble, good bubble, bad bubble?

Discuss the economic impact of AI below
 

 

[Leo Gura]

Good bubble??

Haha

How can bullshitting billions of people end well?

Edited 19 hours ago by Leo Gura

[Starlight321]

Could it be that this AGI talk was just distraction for the real deal?

[Basman]

Any market that has to do with electonics is suffering from inflated prices due to shortages thanks to AI. Video game consoles are going to cost up to a stack now.

What's crazy to me is why hasn't the bubble burst yet? I realized that AI ain't all that long ago and I can't be the only one. Definitely not worth the kind of money that is being dumped into it.

Edited 16 hours ago by Basman

[Natasha Tori Maru]

@Basman The hardware onflow effect is a good point.

2 years ago I built a new PC. To build the EQUIVALENT now is slightly more $$$

[NewKidOnTheBlock]

No, we can not all agree that it is a bubble. It very possibly could be, but companies have only just begun implementing A.I. agents on a significant scale, as long as we do not have all the receipts about ROI and we do not see at least one major company such as Open A.I. collapsing/bankrupting, then we can't tell whether it is a bubble or not. Even IPOs that are about to happen today and in the near future are only going to reveal investor confidence, not the actual value of the technology itself

[cistanche_enjoyer]

The key lies in recursive self-improvement. That’s what the investors are betting on.

As soon as a company figures out how to make a model that’s intelligent enough to make new, better versions of itself, it’s going to be over. They will have exclusive control over superintelligence. What happens after is science fiction.

[Leo Gura]

20 minutes ago, cistanche_enjoyer said:

a model that’s intelligent enough to make new, better versions of itself

Not happening.

Tech Bro fantasies.

Edited 1 hour ago by Leo Gura

[cistanche_enjoyer]

32 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

Not happening.

Tech Bro fantasies.

I don’t know enough things about AI or computer science to have an opinion on this. And I cannot rely on the opinion of the tech bros for obvious conflicts of interest. 

Does anyone here know any respected people in this field (scientists, academics, etc.) who talk about recursive self improvement timelines, without having a conflict of interest?

Edited 1 hour ago by cistanche_enjoyer

[NewKidOnTheBlock]

1 minute ago, cistanche_enjoyer said:

I don’t know enough things about AI or computer science to have an opinion on this. And I cannot rely on the opinion of the tech bros for obvious conflicts of interest. 

Does anyone here know any respected people in this field (scientists, academics, etc.) who talk about recursive self improvement timelines, without having a conflict of interest?

There are respected people of these fields in both camps, and even further subdivide in optimistic/pessimistic camps, therefore you'll find no satisfying conclusion and will have to take someone's side, more or less based on feelings. But I mean, claiming something is a fantasy is not exactly an argument, given the exponentiality of the development curve we've been on so far

[cistanche_enjoyer]

3 minutes ago, NewKidOnTheBlock said:

There are respected people of these fields in both camps, and even further subdivide in optimistic/pessimistic camps

Could you share some names?   

Would be interesting to see how they reason and what kind of assumptions they make

[integral]

Realistic path: rich get richer

Optimistic path: AI flattens the Playing field 

[Jannes]

There are many open source AIs and some of them even run locally on your PC. 

I dont see how chatgpt and co. can get customer to pay high prices in the future when these alternatives which are almost as good exist.