Is the government of Iran about to collapse?

[Husseinisdoingfine]

These protests have been getting really serious. Police forces of entire cities have defected the the Government was forced to shut down the internet for a few days.

Iran even pulled some of its foreign proxy forces from Iraq and Lebanon.

 

[LordFall]

Seems like they're evacuating their gold to Russia. Corrupt cucks.

https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1q8ehgu/irans_gold_allegedly_flown_to_russia_as_supreme/

[Breakingthewall]

Yes, the ayatollahs are going to fall. It's a matter of days.

It is an event of the utmost importance in the global geopolitical landscape

Edited yesterday at 08:19 PM by Breakingthewall

[BlueOak]

Yeah. Soft BRICS target and unaligned with the current system of world governance: if you are not capitalist-fascist leaning you are under pressure.

But the country is done for, unless they start getting water in, or a leader who is able to start bring water in/greening areas from the coast or a major river.

Edited yesterday at 09:38 PM by BlueOak

[PolyPeter]

13 minutes ago, BlueOak said:

Yeah. Soft BRICS target and unaligned with the current system of world governance: if you are not capitalist-fascist leaning you are under pressure.

But the country is done for, unless they start getting water in, or a leader who is able to start bring water in/greening areas from the coast or a major river.

 

[Husseinisdoingfine]

We could also look at this through the lens of Spiral Dynamics.

The BLUE vMeme Shia Islamic style of government is not sustainable in this world where ORANGE dominates.

[PolyPeter]

12 minutes ago, Husseinisdoingfine said:

We could also look at this through the lens of Spiral Dynamics.

The BLUE vMeme Shia Islamic style of government is not sustainable in this world where ORANGE dominates.

Spiral Dynamics is useful as a map, but let's not reduce 45 years of theocratic brutality to "BLUE can't compete with ORANGE."

Yes, Iran's regime operates heavily from blue (absolutist religious law, strict hierarchy, divine authority). And yes, orange values (individual achievement, merit, freedom, capitalism) are dominant globally and create pressure.

But here's what that framing misses:

The Iranian people aren't just rejecting blue because orange is dominant externally. They're rejecting it because blue taken to authoritarian extremes is genuinely oppressive regardless of what stage dominates globally.

Women burning burkas aren't thinking "hmm, the world is orange now so this blue system is outdated." Maybe, just maybe, they're thinking something like "I'm a human being and I'm done being treated like property."

That's not stage-specific, that's recognizing basic dignity, which can emerge at multiple stages when oppression becomes unbearable.

The real dynamic:

Iran's regime isn't just blue. it's blue wielded as a tool for red power (authoritarian control, might-makes-right, brutal suppression)

The protests show green values emerging (equality, human rights, anti-hierarchy) and orange values

But the core driver is simpler: people want to not be murdered for showing their hair

Spiral Dynamics helps explain how systems operate, but it can also be used to over-intellectualize and distance ourselves from the visceral human reality: this regime tortures, rapes, and kills its own citizens for dissent.

So yeah, blue Shia Islamic governance is collapsing. Not just because orange dominates globally, but because when you execute teenage girls for protesting, eventually people say enough.

[aurum]

24 minutes ago, PolyPeter said:

That's not stage-specific, that's recognizing basic dignity, which can emerge at multiple stages when oppression becomes unbearable.

 

It’s absolutely stage-specific.

Be mindful of projecting what you feel is “basic dignity”.

[Apparition of Jack]

My main concern is how does Iran protect its sovereignty if/when the Ayatollah falls? Make no mistake the current administration is corrupt as fuck, but what will stop Iran from being sliced up by every major corporation, even powerful country all trying to get a piece of the pie when it collapses? 
 

I hope Iran has some strong, visionary leaders who are able to bring democracy to the country whilst also asserting Iran’s independence. Iranian culture is just too cool to have it turned into yet another soulless American puppet imo.

Edited 19 hours ago by Apparition of Jack

[BlueOak]

59 minutes ago, PolyPeter said:

 

From your subsequent post I am going to infer you think Iran will not be an authoritarian capitalist state, X amount of years from now when the rebel tendencies die down and the theocracy is reformed into the control of bankers, rich families, dictators and oligarchs. 

Its the global pattern, specifically Iranian society at its roots and structure is not a girl burning pictures. This looks good for the TV for us in the west, and it caught your eye, maybe its even good to inspire a fire. Its not going to be what the country is made out of going forward. That'll be the usual economic apparatus and governing instutions that always exist, and few of them are going to be what you consider stage green. Much as i'd like to believe people when they tell me see enough of one side of a coin (fascism) and you get the other, that's not what we are experiencing right now.

Edited 23 hours ago by BlueOak

[PolyPeter]

13 minutes ago, aurum said:

Be mindful of projecting what you feel is “basic dignity”.

Ok, point taken, I will consider this and contemplate deeper.

I'm interested in what you have to say about the following:

How do you distinguish what's good or bad in the relative domain, for humanity as a whole?
 

Do you think that killing each other is just part of humanity and that we will never get past it? 
Are you not just spiritual bypassing the entire topic by saying "Be mindful of projecting what you feel is “basic dignity”."?

[PolyPeter]

16 minutes ago, BlueOak said:

From your subsequent post I am going to infer you think Iran will not be an authoritarian capitalist state, X amount of years from now when the rebel tendencies die down and the theocracy is reformed into the control of bankers, rich families, dictators and oligarchs. 

Its the global pattern, specifically Iranian society at its roots and structure is not a girl burning pictures. This looks good for the TV for us in the west, and it caught your eye, maybe its even good to inspire a fire. Its not going to be what the country is made out of going forward. That'll be the usual economic apparatus and governing instutions that always exist, and few of them are going to be what you consider stage green. Much as i'd like to believe people when they tell me see enough of one side of a coin (fascism) and you get the other, that's not what we are experiencing right now.

Yeah, there's a real risk Iran just swaps one authoritarianism for another. History shows that pattern.

But:

Even if that happens, it's still an upgrade when women can walk outside without being arrested for their hair. When you can criticize the government without being executed. When LGBTQ people aren't hanged. Imperfect freedom > theocratic brutality.

And dismissing Iranian women burning pictures of the Ayatollah as 'TV spectacle for the West' misses the point. That's a human being risking her life to reject oppression. Whether or not the system that replaces the regime is perfect doesn't erase the legitimacy of her resistance.

You're right that power structures persist. But South Korea went from military dictatorship to functional democracy. Eastern Europe post-USSR isn't perfect but it's freer than under communism. Panama post-Noriega is more prosperous and free, please check this.

I'm not naive about what might come next. But I'm also not going to be so cynical that I can't recognize people fighting for their life as meaningful, regardless of geopolitical outcomes.

[aurum]

2 hours ago, PolyPeter said:

How do you distinguish what's good or bad in the relative domain, for humanity as a whole?

Survival determines what is considered good or bad.

If it reduces survival externalities, it's likely more "good" than "bad". But of course this will still be relative and subject to developmental limitations.

2 hours ago, PolyPeter said:

Do you think that killing each other is just part of humanity and that we will never get past it? 

I think that conflict and competition are inevitable features of survival.

My guess is we will never evolve beyond all forms of physical violence entirely. But we can reduce it over a long time.

2 hours ago, PolyPeter said:

Are you not just spiritual bypassing the entire topic by saying "Be mindful of projecting what you feel is “basic dignity”."?

No, I am acknowledging that developmental constraints exist.

Developmental constraints are tragic. The challenge from a higher place is learning to accept them.

[Jodistrict]

Keep in mind that everything you see in Western media is propaganda designed to sell a particular narrative furthering the aims of the state.

"Both America & Israel Have Officially Announced Direct Involvement in Iranian Disturbances’ – FM Araghchi ‘They are trying to turn these peaceful protests and demonstrations into violence and chaos,’ he noted. Araghchi cited a tweet from former CIA director Mike Pompeo which said that ‘Mossad agents were walking alongside Iranians in the streets.’"

https://x.com/i/status/2009663959125856386

 

 

[Raze]

 

[Breathe]

Fucking flame throwers. Jesus

[Breakingthewall]

The ayatollahs' regime has held a country with a rich cultural tradition hostage for 50 years, imposing the tyranny of Islam, the most toxic and sick ideology that exists today.

This is the moment of liberation, a historic moment of enormous importance. Perhaps it is the beginning of the end for Islam, the ideology of mental retardation, oppression of women,  violence and hate. 

This is the most important event in 21 century.

A video for the history 

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DTT2lpajWNK/?igsh=ZjI5dmxuNDlqaG5q

 

The tehran mosque in fire. Yes! 

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DTTA3DtDa3f/?igsh=M2prd241bXpxbW8z

That's what happens when tyrants try to castrate the minds. Lets see if it has a good end

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DTRbTLnjpgU/?igsh=MThyYWN3Z3JwOWwzeQ==

Edited 12 hours ago by Breakingthewall

[LordFall]

@PolyPeter You missunderstand spiral dynamics. Stage orange is the first stage where individualism is valued. Stage blue you belong to your community fundamentally and your well being comes 2nd to that of the collective. This is directly related to spiral dynamics. 

[LordFall]

19 hours ago, PolyPeter said:

16 hours ago, aurum said:

My guess is we will never evolve beyond all forms of physical violence entirely. But we can reduce it over a long time.

 

Do you think that killing each other is just part of humanity and that we will never get past it? 

I think you're wrong @aurum and we're at most 15 years max from having most forms of violence completely disappear globally due to AI having a global monopoly on violence. The ways in which an individual actor can inflict violence especially at scale but even individually against an unwilling agent will become unviable shortly. In 2 years robots will be walking our streets and petty crimes and muggins will become much rarer and harder. This surely will be massively spearheaded by the UK and London with their knife crime epidemic. For a $30K investment you can buy a 200 LBS steel bodyguard that ensures you can't easily be targeted by violent attackers.

I'm extremely interested in what this means in terms of peace keeping forces when the UN is able to finally have a force that can deploy militarily and not put human lives at risk. I would be extremely optimistic for what the 2030s have to bring to us in terms of world peace.

In game theory terms it's just not going to be profitable or viable to be a violent species anymore. 

[Jodistrict]

8 hours ago, Breakingthewall said:

The ayatollahs' regime has held a country with a rich cultural tradition hostage for 50 years, imposing the tyranny of Islam, the most toxic and sick ideology that exists today.

This is the moment of liberation, a historic moment of enormous importance. Perhaps it is the beginning of the end for Islam, the ideology of mental retardation, oppression of women,  violence and hate. 

The Iranian foreign ministry has suggested that Saudi Arabia is involved in the protests, although there is no direct evidence to support that.