Latest Ukraine/Russia Thread

[zazen]

As I was saying above - these moves will bend, not break Russia.

https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-sanctions-russian-oil-europe-lukoil-rosneft/

From politico: “For Moscow, the new sanctions will mean immediate pain, but are unlikely to curtail its war effort in Ukraine.”

And then Germany expecting to be exempt from these sanctions:

“We assume that the measures taken by the United States … are not intended to target Rosneft’s subsidiaries in Germany, which are held in trust by the German states,” said a spokesperson for the German economy ministry.”

Rules for me not for theee

https://www.ft.com/content/0d9a5946-1cb6-4c0b-aa5b-7f5383dedef7

Sober watch/listen.

TLDR

- Neutrality or neutralisation.

- Europe will be buying (insert X countries name) oil, with Russian characteristics.

Edited October 25, 2025 by zazen

[Breakingthewall]

Interesting Putin speech Interesting Putin speech in which he claims that the US buys large quantities of uranium from Russia while prohibiting Europe from buying energy from it.

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DPYv-W6D6Cr/?igsh=MTk0ZjN6cTQzYXNjdw==

Edited October 30, 2025 by Breakingthewall

[BlueOak]

New low for Russia.
 

Tricking foreign migrants into their army and sending them to die.

I am quite impressed that Russia continues to surprise me with their depravity. Four years on watching it all.

Edited November 14, 2025 by BlueOak

[BlueOak]

On 24/10/2025 at 2:18 PM, zazen said:

- Europe will be buying (insert X countries name) oil, with Russian characteristics.

30% less of it.

Global oil prices apparently just jumped 3% overnight.
 

 

The line downwards for the Russian economy continues to accelerate. 2nd video for a more nuanced take.

*Also Turkey, and India etc, those countries buying to sell have stopped.

Edited November 14, 2025 by BlueOak

[BlueOak]

The Russian Army. 

Recently they've put they want absolution for their warcrimes into their peace negotiations. The Europeans even offered it in their counter proposal (which Putin will never accept, not until he's got all he wanted). After all the torture, 4 years of civilian bombings, terrorism abroad, kindapping of children, and forced conscription. They want all that swept away as if it didn't happen.

Now I know it will be anyway, because money > than everything and the world has no international law. The next time someone tells me there is international law, or that I should somehow consider it, I am going to belly laugh at them.

Generation Z influence - the generation where nothing has any permanence, so why does it matter, under generation X's leadership: The world's screwed anyway attitude.

Why am I posting this, because two people here have tried to tell me international law matters.

It doesn't exist, and if, conveniently, two years from now it suddenly starts to exist, I will say excatly that: International law is optional and exists when its convenient to. Ditto Israel. All this outrage for Israeli bombing but Russia just does whatever the hell it wants without a peep makes me sick.

For greater context this guy is on the ball as always:
 

 

Edited November 24, 2025 by BlueOak

[Kid A]

5 hours ago, BlueOak said:

Why am I posting this, because two people here have tried to tell me international law matters.

It doesn't exist, and if, conveniently, two years from now it suddenly starts to exist, I will say excatly that: International law is optional and exists when its convenient to. Ditto Israel. All this outrage for Israeli bombing but Russia just does whatever the hell it wants without a peep makes me sick.

?

Ukraine has received over €300 billion in aid and has been supplied with weapons by dozens of countries since the invasion began, while Russia (unlike Israel) has been banned from pretty much everything.
The world hasn’t done shit for the Palestinians.

[Elliott]

4 minutes ago, Kid A said:

?

Ukraine has received over €300 billion in aid and has been supplied with weapons by dozens of countries since the invasion began, while Russia (unlike Israel) has been banned from pretty much everything.
The world hasn’t done shit for the Palestinians.

He said law doesn't  exist.

[Lyubov]

NATO and the USA are simply just too divided internally to do anything efficiently or effectively anymore especially on the world stage. The USA isn’t capable of leading the world like it used to. I think people in the USA are so politically jaded, uneducated, untrusting and gridlocked that there really is no initiative or energy to form a bipartisan coalition on anything. Democratic decay is real and in the USA we will probably live for a long time with a government where it lumbers back and forth between a wannabe authoritarian system and an ineffective liberal democracy. A strange fusion of both. Nothing will get done. Government institutions will slowly decay. Reforms will happen but will be slow and give temporary relief. How does this relate to Ukraine? Well basically they shouldn’t expect to count on us. Europe also needs to really build up their armies. I do believe Ukraine would have been in a much better position of negotiation if NATO/USA didn’t flinch and sent more weapons and more high tech equipment when they had the chance. I believe if the US gave more support and was willing to send over all the long range weapons sooner, offered unwavering and there was a strong coalition of support for this, Russia would be more likely to negotiate. Now they hold all the cards. The west approved everything so slowly and flinched. I don’t think the map would be too different than it is now but Ukraine would be in a stronger position and this probably would of brought Russia to the negotiating table back in 2022/23. 

[BlueOak]

On 24/11/2025 at 9:26 PM, Lyubov said:

NATO and the USA are simply just too divided internally to do anything efficiently or effectively anymore especially on the world stage. The USA isn’t capable of leading the world like it used to. I think people in the USA are so politically jaded, uneducated, untrusting and gridlocked that there really is no initiative or energy to form a bipartisan coalition on anything. Democratic decay is real and in the USA we will probably live for a long time with a government where it lumbers back and forth between a wannabe authoritarian system and an ineffective liberal democracy. A strange fusion of both. Nothing will get done. Government institutions will slowly decay. Reforms will happen but will be slow and give temporary relief. How does this relate to Ukraine? Well basically they shouldn’t expect to count on us. Europe also needs to really build up their armies. I do believe Ukraine would have been in a much better position of negotiation if NATO/USA didn’t flinch and sent more weapons and more high tech equipment when they had the chance. I believe if the US gave more support and was willing to send over all the long range weapons sooner, offered unwavering and there was a strong coalition of support for this, Russia would be more likely to negotiate. Now they hold all the cards. The west approved everything so slowly and flinched. I don’t think the map would be too different than it is now but Ukraine would be in a stronger position and this probably would of brought Russia to the negotiating table back in 2022/23. 

I don't think it would have made much of a difference to the map I agree, its pretty much where I predicted after Ukraine kicked their initial invasion out, natural borders and all. And because its moved so slowly for Russia, it's changed the map very little for what Russia has wasted. But yes it would have ended the conflict quicker if arms had come quicker and America had held a hard line. Ditto if India and BRICS hadn't continued to fund Russia's expansion.

I don't think Russia is giving up on its aims. Nor China. I think the more arms given and the more damage done to Russia, the less likely Putin will be able to continue expansion any time soon, and the more it dissuades China. Hopefully Russia is battered enough that Putin is dead before they go for round 3. Which I am nearly certain, if nothing changes, will come. Its the obvious pattern. Two former invasions, and all the USSR countries invaded previously—it'll probably be the other half of Georgia next. 

It'll take 2 more years to take the donbas region and another million or so casualties, which I am far from certain Russia can sustain with the amount of economic and long term military damage they are taking, such as another 350 million dollar plane just going up, or their s400 batteries being reduced to critical levels, so much so Ukranian drones can just waltz in wherever they like and take their country apart.

The Russian economy is in terrible shape now. If I had to visualise it, it'd be a life support drip from BRICS.

Europe does need a significantly larger military and military industrial complex to supply it, so its not reliant on anyone else for its own security. That I fully agree with. We cannot rely on anyone else to keep peace in Europe or Russia, China, Iran and BRICS in check.

 

On 24/11/2025 at 3:20 PM, Kid A said:

Ukraine has received over €300 billion in aid and has been supplied with weapons by dozens of countries since the invasion began, while Russia (unlike Israel) has been banned from pretty much everything.
The world hasn’t done shit for the Palestinians.

Europe certainly is trying to uphold international law, in Europe.
The world doesn't give a damn about international law or recognize it. You are sort of proving my point. 

But i'll roll with this, where outside of NATO, has the world held Russia accountable? Genuinely interested if this is your position? I would say the complete opposite was true, and further, while a singular country with a few allies is supporting Israel, most are condemning it.

Edited November 26, 2025 by BlueOak

[Kid A]

2 hours ago, BlueOak said:

But i'll roll with this, where outside of NATO, has the world held Russia accountable?

Not nearly enough places, unfortunately. 
 

You’re probably right about international law. I just think it’s wrong to portray it as though the world only cares about Israel’s actions and not Russia’s, when it’s only Russia that has faced considerable resistance from the world.

[BlueOak]

So this is well put.

Pure stage orange thinkers are not selling their gold for roubles. As they know, Russia is too risky an investment. People whose only bias is wealth are not risking it on Russia, because they know what I do: if nothing changes, Russia is headed for sharper and sharper drops.
 

@Kid A

Yeah but the world didn't resist Russia. America and Europe did. Much of the world aided Russia.

Edited November 29, 2025 by BlueOak

[Elliott]

Russia is actually the main reason Europe is in Israel as well. Russia tries to move into the Middle East for controlling the oil.

Russia needs destroyed, we've been fighting them in a sabotage war forever. They should offer splitting Russia up in order to remove sanctions. Russia, the u.s., and China need split up.

Edited November 29, 2025 by Elliott

[SimpleGuy]

WTF Steve Witkoff acts in movies??? How beautiful Trump`s precidency is!

[zazen]

On 21/10/2025 at 9:28 AM, zazen said:

On 22/08/2025 at 7:41 PM, zazen said:

From that time:

People need to realise this a larger war than Ukraine-Russia. The reason Tomahwaks can't be given and most likely won't be is because whilst Western involvement in this war is obvious (intelligence, ISR, Western arms and aims at the expense of Ukrainian blood etc) Tomahawks or any system that requires the very explicit involvement of the US to operate such systems (that can't simply be given to those without the operational ability) increases the tensions between rival powers who are avoiding direct conflict (a hot war vs a cold indirect one via proxy now). The stakes are simply too high unless you want to risk WW3 and gamble on that.

This is where Ukraine finds itself in a bad position - because it's provided defensive means but never the offensive means that can perhaps tilt the balance in their favor - which may not happen even if they were provided. Those offesnive weapons simply risk a hot war between Russia and the West that is being avoided at all costs by the sane minded, or being flirted with by the insane Eurocons who dream of Balkanizing Russia and taking the fight to them - not knowing what that even means.  This is why diplomacy is the only way and the cutting of losses to prevent further losses (to life or land).

As we speak there are encirclement of the front line cities with Pokrovsk being a major logistical hub in the cross hairs. The linear thinking of - Russia only captures x km of land in x amount of time therefore it would take them 100s of years to capture all of Ukraine - is simply not smart. War isn't linear - if certain places fall they can have a domino effect more than others and leave wide open spaces to take land more easily than others. Attrition warfare is never linear.

Ukraine's drone strategy is good in causing issues in Russia - but the other side of this is that facilities get repaired and back online within weeks at times, and Russia can adapt or move product to other regions to be refined etc. Things shouldn't be overstated. Even if we think the West can cause enough chaos in Russia as to have Putin overthrown - what does that achieve? Putin is actually seen as more of a moderate in Russia - do we really want someone like Medvedev to come into power? lol. 

Tell you the future before it happens cos I spy with my third eye.

Apparently it was “once strategic” and is “no longer militarily important” lol

Not what BBC was saying just last month: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0jdv0623pno.amp

”If Pokrovsk falls, defending its satellite city of Myrnohrad becomes almost untenable and Russian troops would then be able to turn their focus to the battle for Kostyantynivka to the north-east and the rest of the so-called "fortress belt" cities of Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk and Slovyansk.”

EU fully banning Russian energy.

So how will Europe become competitive with higher energy prices? Some will do better than others and it will take time. UK just said their going to reform and embrace nuclear which is a start: https://nuclear.britishprogress.org/

UK luckily also has some of the best wind potential it can harness. Norway has unreal hydro etc but most countries don’t have blessed geographies and instead react to nuclear like their allergic.

The only silver lining here is that Europe got a kick up the ass to take their energy, economic and military sovereignty seriously and need to start acting accordingly. But it will be a lost decade of growth due to higher energy cost and major investments needing to be made plus % of GDP going to military.

[BlueOak]

On 05/12/2025 at 6:20 PM, zazen said:

The only silver lining here is that Europe got a kick up the ass to take their energy, economic and military sovereignty seriously and need to start acting accordingly. But it will be a lost decade of growth due to higher energy cost and major investments needing to be made plus % of GDP going to military.

Security costs.

That's the basics of it Zazen. To be secure from Russia's influence and energy leverage, the prices will be higher.

And any country stupid enough, this decade, to become overreliant on Russian energy as the primary or even singular source of their own energy are quite frankly cutting off their own toes in geo strategic terms. There has been no real reform in Russia, this will happen again when the opportunity arises, as that's how the Russians do business.

Not to say Russia can't make a percentage of people's energy long term, as it should be, but even 30% is stupid, if a country can shut down 30% of your energy supplies that really hurts.

BUT and I want to say this for the 50th time so everyone hears it.
Europe increasing its GDP into defense won't sit idle on it. It will be used in some theater. That's a blunder long term that BRICS has made, not just Russia, by pushing the EU that far. Its also a reason there will be more war, as that's a huge right wing shift in the EU with obvious geopolitical opponents.

It was a soft easy target, and rather than China taking the opportunity to make it their soft easy friend while America implodes, they made it their opponent via Russia. Utterly stupid long term but hey ho.

 

Edited December 18, 2025 by BlueOak

[BlueOak]

Peace possible.
I'd say unlikely but possible. Still I wanted to offer the hope.

NATO like guarantee's was the primary thing holding it back, now they have them. Meaning Russia can't just go for round 3.
Its still more likely we'll have a larger war, as EU leaders keep warning.

Them losing another 500 million dollar sub had to sting.
 

Now they've boxed in their black sea navy by sinking some ships to stop the underwater drones, but it makes them a clustered missile target.

 

About 15 mins in for the port situation.

Edited December 18, 2025 by BlueOak

[zazen]

@BlueOak

This is a good watch:

A masterclass in geopolitics / great power competition:

 

[Lyubov]

Europe is not going to throw Ukraine to the wolves. Russia is going to have to come to terms with this fact. At least for now. 

[BlueOak]

@zazen
High rightwing and Russian bias there. I got 10 mins in and had enough.

 

• People confuse ideologies all the time but the vast majority of people I speak to don't confuse nationalism with nazism. That's just nonesensical. That's why there is such a backlash against councils taking down flags in the UK.
• Breaking Russia up into smaller states carries considerably less risk than having a giant aggressive nuclear power fighting a war against us.
• Yes millions of lives suffering, because PUTIN is invading UKRAINE.
• We are doing anything to prevent war, we are trying to keep it in Ukraine, Putin knows this so he's started to try to provoke the EU.
• Ukraine is achieving a victory, Russia is falling apart slowly. Manpower alone does not win a war.
• Ukraine has chosen its own security guarantees; it has chosen its economic alignment. It will not get to choose its borders, they already know this though and have conceded it.
• The front line has been very slow, done to bleed Russia dry.
• Everyone did not say Ukraine would win, nobody expected them to last a month. He's just lying straight up here to create a narrative.
• Russia is performing better LOL that had me howling. They send waves of people on bikes and donkeys into drone fire. They creep forward so slowly that a snail would have got into Poland by now, and they are still in Donbas fighting over cities they were a year ago.

 

To be honest this guy is so far off he's a Russian plant.

Nobody in the EU wanted a war. Nobody thought this war would happen. Russia is provoking them, its the aggressor, it won't concede a thing, and frankly i'm fed up with Russian apologists who lie lie all day for Russia. I watch the movement on the ground daily, and these guys live in a paid for Kremlin fantasy.

If a greater war comes from this, it'll be China's choice. They will have started this round of violence.

Edited December 20, 2025 by BlueOak

[BlueOak]

14 hours ago, Lyubov said:

Europe is not going to throw Ukraine to the wolves. Russia is going to have to come to terms with this fact. At least for now. 

Yes. They've grown a spine, its good to see.

Putin's threatened war for the 100th time today because other countries want to control their own borders with Kaliningrad.

Russia just doesn't get it. They don't get to tell others what they can do with their own borders or where those borders are. They have to learn, it might take a war with China (because Russia is on the ropes) to teach them it, or they might gain some sense and not waste a generation to learn it.

Edited December 20, 2025 by BlueOak