The AI crash is impossible - Change my View

[something_else]

2 hours ago, LordFall said:

human tendency towards selfishness is worth considering

I would argue it is the primary thing worth considering, given that it has basically defined our species for 200,000 years of history.

Also, I don't think we are really very close to AI actually doing everything for us and providing us all with a life of abundance. I use AI all day for my job as a software engineer and it is insanely good, but not anywhere near good enough that it could be trusted to do the job autonomously. That would be catastrophic. And coding is the complex task that these models are by far the best at right now.

We are at a stage where the economy is going to shift massively in the coming years because you now need one person to do the job of 4 in some white collar fields. But predicting how this will actually go in practice is hard.

[LordFall]

29 minutes ago, something_else said:

I would argue it is the primary thing worth considering, given that it has basically defined our species for 200,000 years of history.

Also, I don't think we are really very close to AI actually doing everything for us and providing us all with a life of abundance. I use AI all day for my job as a software engineer and it is insanely good, but not anywhere near good enough that it could be trusted to do the job autonomously. That would be catastrophic. And coding is the complex task that these models are by far the best at right now.

We are at a stage where the economy is going to shift massively in the coming years because you now need one person to do the job of 4 in some white collar fields. But predicting how this will actually go in practice is hard.

You're underestimating the infrastructure already in place to push this transition forward. AI fucking up and causing unexpected damages sounds like the perfect use case for the insurance industry to step in.

A conglomerate could layoff 10 000 of its staff and replace them with 5000 robots and if 500 of these robots fuckup it's still less expensive than 10 000 wages(made up numbers but you get the idea.)

A minimum wage fast food worker in California can be paid as low as $20 USD/hour, that's a $41.6K/yearly base salary. To replace fast food workers with Robots is not yet economically viable but the tilt of the pendulum towards it being so is most likely gonna happen around 2028 and tilt further towards cost reduction indefinitely in favor of AI labor.

 

Edited 1 hour ago by LordFall

[something_else]

 

17 minutes ago, LordFall said:

You're underestimating the infrastructure already in place to push this transition forward. AI fucking up and causing unexpected damages sounds like the perfect use case for the insurance industry to step in.

A conglomerate could layoff 10 000 of its staff and replace them with 5000 robots and if 500 of these robots fuckup it's still less expensive than 10 000 wages(made up numbers but you get the idea.)

A minimum wage fast food worker in California can be paid as low as $20 USD/hour, that's a $41.6K/yearly base salary. To replace fast food workers with Robots is not yet economically viable but the tilt of the pendulum towards it being so is most likely gonna happen around 2028 and tilt further towards cost reduction indefinitely in favor of AI labor.

How does any of this prove we are all going to be living a life of abundance?

I'm assuming the mechanism by which you see that happening is UBI, but it isn't nearly as developed as you made it out to be in your last post. The Canada bill would require the government to develop a framework for implementing something along the lines of UBI, and it may not even pass. Even if it does pass, it doesn't actually implement UBI, it just requires the government to develop a framework. Progress, yes, but not as far reaching as you make it out to be. It's also just a single country.

The EU has a citizens' initiative advocating for UBI, but that isn't legislation being passed either. Initiatives are proposed for all sorts of things that never ultimately become law.

So where is the actual mechanism that gets us from "AI makes production much cheaper" to "everyone lives in abundance"? What makes you think utopia is the way this will go, and not dystopia?

[LordFall]

The mechanism isn't benevolence or a utopian fairy tale; it's basic alignment of incentives.

Paying the masses a baseline UBI check is vastly cheaper and safer for global capital than triggering widespread civil unrest, bread riots, and asset destruction. It solves the core problem for both classes: the public gets their basic cost of living secured, and the asset-owning class protects their capital and keeps the economic engine humming.

Why would the ruling class choose systemic collapse, ruined consumer markets, and torches at their gates when cutting a basic stimulus check maintains stability and preserves their wealth?