The AI crash is impossible - Change my View

[Leo Gura]

On 8/24/2026 at 11:50 PM, Marten98 said:

@Leo Gura didn‘t you say a couple weeks ago that your strategy was to stack gold, since this is a foolproof way of investing, especially when stocks are down? And that gold is fairly cheap right now.

If the bubble bursts, even gold will drop 30%.

So I am careful even about gold.

Gold is the best investment right now, but still risky given how hard this market could crash.

When the market is crashing, the only safe place is cash. Of course inflation is also a risk, so there is no perfect answer.

Edited 14 hours ago by Leo Gura

[oOo]

14 hours ago, Elliott said:

That's not "AI", that's a program made by "AI". "AI" means using it on something novel which means needing all data, processing a TON of data.

Elliott, I think I've picked up on some patterns so I am going to take a stab at your algorithm:

• Say something absurd with enormous confidence
• Someone explains why it’s wrong.
• Redefine the word.
• If that fails, announce the source is trash.
• Repeat until everyone gets tired.

Here it went - “entire building” > “that’s not AI” > “AI needs all data” > Photoshop > spaceships > curing cancer.

You sound like an early-release reasoning model with no error correction. Aggressive token usage with compounding hallucinations. 

To go back on what I said briefly, you're the only reason why I wouldn't want every homeowner to have its own miniature data centre, many would use it to power their irrationalities on the internet while intermittently coming together to form their red-pill, feminist and religious propaganda, and from that, your odd school shooting with 2035 AI robots created by a kid that got rejected by his crush.

Your points are:

• Cloud AI can be cheaper for low-use customers
• Frontier model training still requires enormous datasets and comput
• Outsourcing sensitive data can create genuine privacy risks
• Local AI will not economically suit every user

Big fucking deal. These are obvious points you're making with even more obvious solutions, most of which I've already stated and or alluded to. You sound like the Greta Thunberg of AI, but far more annoying, less educated, and more oblivious. 

Your audience is giving this way too much compute. I've given this way too much compute, this is unpaid digital standup right here on my part.

Politely, I am now walking away for good. 

12 hours ago, Pudgey said:

I don't see how Anthropic and OpenAI survives if open weight models are becoming this good.

They're absolutely fucked.

Google, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, xAI all got their own data centres. Anthropic and OpenAI mostly rent theirs like movies from a video store, they'll never be able to become casting directors. Everyone remember the days of renting films from video stores? Ha!

OpenAI's literal business model is now no more sophisticated than "we will make the best models". Even if that were true, which it isn't, for how long would it be true? I expect bankruptcy within 5 years or a radically renovated business model they lead with. 

Their only chance is to rub shoulders with government. That's literally it. Maybe Trump will give em some datacenters they build in Greenland after the fantasy takeover! Either way, Sam Altman's screwed outside the pay packet he'll leave with after screwing investors. They get more funding than any other AI company and are no where near the best while spending the most. 

Perplexity is just as bad, if not worse, they don't even make their own models.

Quote

LLM prices are crashing to the bottom and it doesn't look like it's stopping. 

Yep, and now the infrastructure surrounding.

For me as I expressed, now more than ever over the last 100 yrs we have a chance for "centralisation collapse" in the next decade, or at the very least, a positive derailment.

It's the best outcome for a situation in which the general population is outnumbered by negative alternatives, IMO.

 

Edited 13 hours ago by oOo

[PenguinPablo]

On 3/4/2026 at 11:21 AM, LordFall said:

Leo I don't know what to tell you man I think think you're basically close to 100% out of the loop on this. 

You are already pretty close to being able to create a whole game with physics engine, novel characters, custom gameplay and a logic system off of a single prompt. 

Why do you reduce AI agents's potential in gaming to quirky dialogue? You could make an alternative american Civil war campaign where the confederates somehow allied with Canada and Mexico against the Union and have a whole alternative history plotline with characters that live out a 24 hour storyline with real strategy and twitsts where players log in to take part of an ongoing campaign. So many cool ideas that were never possible beforehand. 

The game I wanna make will simulate a fantasy 15th century europe with active AI agents that operate jobs and labor for a crypto token with a whole simulated economy. That level of game has never been close to being possible before. 

Let's have this conversation again in 5 years when everyone on this forum including you has one. Human relationships are gonna change forever. You're already pretty close to having a companion on your phone that answers your every question and is a more interesting conversation partner than most humans that don't use AI. 

It won't transition to a weird dystopia it'll just empower people to have more intentional relationships on their terms. Human connections will be more powerful than ever. Do you really put human relationships on such a pedestal? A lot of couples you could literally plot their conversations on a flowchart and be accurate in a majority of cases, consciousness has patterns. That's the whole idea of pickup you can go out and have the same conversations over years with 100% different people because conversation threading is pretty similar across people. 

This is true and already happening via podcasts and influencers so I'd predict the same as you. All the weird and taboo things have basically become the norm. Online dating used to be a badge of shame now it's what everyone does.

I suppose cam girls are a precursor to only fans and influencers. I think the 5 year thing is true but I don't think it will be so wide spread that Leo and everyone on this forum will have an AI girlfriend. It's pretty cringe tbh. 

But then again the movie Her basically was a prophecy. 

Edited 12 hours ago by PenguinPablo

[oOo]

1 hour ago, PenguinPablo said:

This is true and already happening via podcasts and influencers so I'd predict the same as you. All the weird and taboo things have basically become the norm. Online dating used to be a badge of shame now it's what everyone does.

I suppose cam girls are a precursor to only fans and influencers. I think the 5 year thing is true but I don't think it will be so wide spread that Leo and everyone on this forum will have an AI girlfriend. It's pretty cringe tbh. 

But then again the movie Her basically was a prophecy. 

I can't do the AI partner thing but, my brain simply won't buy in despite trying to convince myself as a self-experimentation. 

I think personality variables are a prerequisite.

For example, someone on high on openness to experience may seem more likely in the beginning but then they also may be more likely to become bored or find it too shallow, especially if they have other pairing qualities like high on sentimentality. That said, people who are already objectifying their relationships, like those that are high in openness but low in sentimentality may be more likely; another sub-domain is fantasy proneness minus reality-testing habits. 

And even Cognitive dispositions.

For example those that are more likely to take many different perspectives into account may be less likely to buy into having an AI girlfriend, simply because say, switching between third and first person as one take, creates those noted reality tests that more often than not are likely to break the AI illusion. The mention of dating apps becoming socialised is a good example of this, many people get gamed by digital dating frontiers and that correlation tends to correspond to reality-testing psychological habits.

If it becomes socialised though, that's another variable of course that shouldn't be ignored however at the same time, one can't just expect the opposite to not happen. Meaning group norms forge among certain demographics that outright reject the idea of an AI partner. So we have simultaneous agendas from people less/more likely to just like anything else. 

Another one is attachment style as well, low income earners, people that have lower self-esteem and people that are over-weight; just to name others off the cuff.

It's interesting though. 

I think we will get real life examples of the film "Her" playing out as they already have with some people demonstrating psychotic symptoms following deeper AI interactions, that said, I think that the majority of those examples are going to continue to be a super-dumbed down version of what's portrayed in the film, which was pretty solid for its time. 

Transcendence as a film was epic for its time as well, and we will see dumbed down versions of that coming; with the closest relationship there being synthetic neurology  that are at best promising a scam in the intelligence domain at this point. Lucy and Limitless are ways off and have more security issues at this point as you wouldn't want a Limitless pill being widely available to geopolitical competitors so synthetic neurological enhancements are always going to be a slippery slope over what's accepted (I.e. socially), what's safe (I.e. security) and what's competitive (I.e. geopolitics). With AI partners its similar keys, with safety and competition taking on different positions, for example as a competitive country you'd actually want the foreign country's population forming relationships with AI analogous to the benefits Pokemon Go  brought intelligence agencies from positioning that is as simple as data accumulation to social influence and impacting the trajectory of relationship formations, I.e. from a strategic interest, its better if it leads to less marriages, less children, poorly raised children, worse marriages, less reality checks, etc. 

Just as some alternate takes. Otherwise Project Genie is a must checkout. 

 

Edited 11 hours ago by oOo

[something_else]

Quote

Without data? No. What you're referring to is a program created by AI.

I'm sorry, but I think there are several issues in your thinking. Most of all, you're introducing a lot of other points separate from your main argument which was that "local LLMs are not AI, and AI is only happening when training the model" so I'm going to focus on that point in my response here.

AI is defined as: "the capability of computational systems to perform tasks typically associated with human intelligence, such as learning, reasoning, problem-solving, perception, and decision-making".

If you run a 120B parameter model locally and attach it to a good agent harness, it meets this criteria. Also notice that there is no mention of 'data' or 'training' being a requirement for something to be AI like you are suggesting.

In fact, I would argue your thinking is exactly backwards. The training process for an AI is mostly defined and programmed by humans, while the output of an LLM is produced independently of humans, which more closely matches the definition of AI.

Quote

Its a local small-language model.

Most locally run models are medium sized. Small language model defines anything under 10B parameters. Medium is 10B-100B, large is 100B+. It is possible (although it requires workstation level hardware) to run a 120B parameter model locally. Medium language models are very achievable to run locally, and still meet much of the above criteria for AI, just to less of a degree than a large language model.

The agent harness is actually the magic sauce that makes modern AI agents so capable, less so than model size.

Quote

You can't just download a llm on a local lab and ask it to create a spaceship, and then how to cure cancer

You can't ask Fable to do this either. This has little bearing on whether something qualifies as AI.

Quote

It will be a calculator, not a polymath ChatGPT

Ehm, no not really. LLMs aren't really trained for specific tasks, even the small ones. That's kind of the whole point. The initial LLM is trained on very broad corpus of text, then fine-tuned using a combination of question-answer pairs to optimise it for answering questions, and preference optimisation to ensure it answers questions in a way actual humans find useful. The end result is something with a fairly broad range of knowledge that knows how to talk to humans, even if the model is small.

Yes, if you need a model for aerospace engineering you may include lots of aerospace engineering content in that fine-tuning phase, but you're still building on an LLM that was initially trained on a very broad corpus of text which makes it much more general purpose than a calculator.

On top of this, the model runs in an agent harness, this allows it to decide whether it needs more data to make a decision. If it thinks it does then it can go and fetch that. So if you ask it about the anatomy of a cow it will search online for information on that and store that in its context, allowing it to answer detailed questions about cow anatomy pretty effectively even though it was fine-tuned as an aerospace engineering model.

Edited 8 hours ago by something_else

[KosmicGeng]

@Pudgey

 Alright, I unblocked actualized.org if there are some decent conversations, I can put my time in I unblock the site, I can only check briefly, I have a lot of stuff going, and I also require some breaks, I just sort of can give you my perspective after I've been to major companies that also worked on integrating their own A.I and creating their own LLM's fitting with Microsofts version of it, and sticking ot western business practices, even with a lot of chinese workers working on semi-conductors. 

I just wanted to test the GLM, but yesterday I matched Googles new Antigravity and Codex/Open A.I with Obsidian to work with Windows registry in order to just take better notes and organize myself better with obsidian, I don't know what drives the market more consumers or businesses, imo currently it will be the major business decisions and politics of the tech companies themselves, even if the models are better and cheaper, I don't see the western audiance besdies the tech enthusiasts using these models, as for my general purposes I would not know if I could link GLM (ZAI) with it, the whole point if you read Thick Face Black Heart from the booklist of Leo, the U.S should be aware of these copying strategies, and often they hire talent, idk a chinese friend of mine who works in A.I in deep learning as a senior researcher, also writes pro-nivida to some extend, I don't know his opinion as he is more mesmerized by the graphical quality of things, not computing power and seems more creativee to me, even if large businsses opt to these models, I am not convinced they serve general puposes of the consumer for e.g largely being used inside applications, as microsoft, with co-pilot for power point, word etc. and google itself as a web browser, or even OpenA.I licenses etc. (idk about Open A.I I use it the most) as most of them don't have a voice feature, let alone the power of the U.S tech billionairs idk what will happen, from audiobooks I consumed on the rise of eastern economics, a lot of western companies and democracy invested in them (I just got my phone back). I am also tired of paying for every model ChatGPT & Grok are enough also for entertainment purposes they seem better and Google makes most stuff free, imo they benefit mostly the economy not the users as of now. 

I don't know how the bubble will pop, or if the investments are just going to move to a different segment, which should be more logical or experienced based to what I personally experienced besides some stuff, I don't have that much anymore, but I made a decent amount of money, I don't think consumers will readily shift to chinese software, especially with the propaganda present, even if the models are cheaper and better, often times there is a user quality or HCI missing, a professor of mine also had a company teaching western psychology principles to chinese workers, as computer scientist/psychologist, so I never know how much the west, even the few millionairs who have their own companies and would be considered "economic middle class" and are not tech gians like google ( I write this with my own words and experience 2 let you know).

I do see China advancing but mostly it's own position, most of the tech stuff, even if the bubble pops, the U.S IIRC has controlled banks forever and even in economics classes in high school advanced on a college level here in europe, they teacher steadily complained about these rating agencies, and a lot of western lifestyles does attract a decent amount of eastern "aliens" moving to countries like ger/usa eventually swe/norway/france etc.

I don't know how european business will act, I saw microsoft recently in a headline taking refuge in China, and imo without China we're partially doomed in terms of what I also personally experienced, having worked and lived there and having a lot of positive experiences, but many especially older consumers/boomers will most likely never adapt, and even stick to their own "nature paradigm" which will just force the younger people to make the decision embrace the tech, be more artsy or go for nature in that sense, especially imo as chinese electronic markets/cars etc. /bikes etc. drones are most "superior" they also have to care about their local growth and talent.

The whole point with these credit agencies (i never tracked this after high school, as I moved into cs not economics) is the U.S manipulates and rates it IIRC even here in europe forever and a lot of people will just buy apple, google phones, microsoft etc. it's relatively predicatable without the panic imo, I am personally more intersted how malaysa & china /singapor will grow and would like to invest, but I am in an odd predicament with this also, a lot of these in-house built systems even with advanced algorithms and western education, will not keep-up with the chinese efficiency let alone the sheer volume of people working and being interested in the field, but it also burns the risk of the scrutiny of the west etc, in the end most of this imo is still driven by the Ukranian/Russian conflict to have any clarity whatsoever, as a lot of drone a.i technology is most likely used there etc. 

Idk shit is crazy imo atm, the more deeper I got into it, I could only laugh manically how far A.I will go and if it will destroy humanity or not, I am not doomsday A.I I had to learn recently laughing is a type of mercy, anyhow I stop here. 

Edited 6 hours ago by KosmicGeng

[KosmicGeng]

Yes, people should value old money more and property, that imo is the whole Spiel with Trump & bitcoin

7 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

If the bubble bursts, even gold will drop 30%.

So I am careful even about gold.

Gold is the best investment right now, but still risky given how hard this market could crash.

When the market is crashing, the only safe place is cash. Of course inflation is also a risk, so there is no perfect answer.

Edited 6 hours ago by Leo Gura

It's mostly about balance, I faced some insights recently that showed me this, as people leached on me imo for having physical money, and people act very protectively around it, the point is I am not well-versed in ETF'S etc. but there are constantly new opportunities, and ya'll are underestimating the impact quantum informatics & quantum science will have in terms of investing and ROI's but I can't research the market, I flipped after the break-up and I got banned by a bank as they imo just acted weirdly, but I was in a weird state of psychosis, as I am facing generally a more complex scenario with a dual citizenship, and people even advise me to go rogue, but I don't prefer that anymore, I enjoy being more responsible, but at times idk wtf is going on if I am not getting the right information or can't dissect with a.i. 

These was from an audiobook, I originally did not yearn to mention, a I don't really have the best experience at times with actualized.org, but generally I was also interested in raw materials, the audiobook moved a bit more into quantum wealth, as I don't really know what new products they will produce, but if it will be hydrogen-cars and what bmw will do 2028 etc. there will be   enough speculative movement etc. 

The audiobook was interesting and rather unknown from a women, but I also treat it as high risk, I am generally a high risk persona, so idk ultimately what will happen. I do require investing in some newspapers after speaking to some investors, but currently I am using free materials and a.i and many investors seem prone to use perplexity as a model, so idk how the market will decide based on consumers, I am less familiar with businesses now a bit more after working for a mircosoft implemented car auditing company, but tbh most of the benefits arre very novel sciences where "hard work" and not business and venture clienting is done etc. I wonder if the digitalization will be any good for the economy. Not currently on the market, Was pressured to early also to invest and there is just other stuff I saw, that interests me more with the market itself, where I don't express that opinion or I already did in a journal entry etc. anyhow 

[vinc3nc]

9 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

If the bubble bursts, even gold will drop 30%.

So I am careful even about gold.

Gold is the best investment right now, but still risky given how hard this market could crash.

When the market is crashing, the only safe place is cash. Of course inflation is also a risk, so there is no perfect answer.

What if gold goes up to like 7K before that happens, and then drops 30%? It would still be higher than it is right now.

Things can stay stupid longer than you can fathom, and there’s always a bull market somewhere.

[oOo]

Dang I'm good!  

This video dropped just two or so hours ago and popped up just now on my feed, well after my initial comments relating to in this thread. 

The wire is live now on this one folks, the wire is now live.

 

Title: Build a $5,000 AI Datacenter at Home, Here’s How

 

Edited 5 hours ago by oOo

[Leo Gura]

1 hour ago, vinc3nc said:

What if gold goes up to like 7K before that happens, and then drops 30%? It would still be higher than it is right now.

Sure, that could happen.

But gold has already had a big bull run in the last few years. I expect $7K after the crash, not before.

Edited 4 hours ago by Leo Gura

[Inliytened1]

9 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

Sure, that could happen.

But gold has already had a big bull run in the last few years. I expect $7K after the crash, not before.

Hey how much do you drop into investments every month and how long did it take you to get to that amount?

I really waited late so im starting late and behind the 8 ball.  And with all my bills I don't have a ton left over for investments.  I have my 401k and my house which right there probably sits me at 1M but I wanted to invest on the side. 

[Leo Gura]

48 minutes ago, Inliytened1 said:

Hey how much do you drop into investments every month and how long did it take you to get to that amount?

I don't do monthly investment like that.

I look for rare opportunities in the market.

I'm not saying to emulate me. That's just how I do it. You should be wary taking investment advice from me.

Edited 3 hours ago by Leo Gura

[LordFall]

9 hours ago, oOo said:

Elliott, I think I've picked up on some patterns so I am going to take a stab at your algorithm:

• Say something absurd with enormous confidence
• Someone explains why it’s wrong.
• Redefine the word.
• If that fails, announce the source is trash.
• Repeat until everyone gets tired.

Here it went - “entire building” > “that’s not AI” > “AI needs all data” > Photoshop > spaceships > curing cancer.

You sound like an early-release reasoning model with no error correction. Aggressive token usage with compounding hallucinations. 

To go back on what I said briefly, you're the only reason why I wouldn't want every homeowner to have its own miniature data centre, many would use it to power their irrationalities on the internet while intermittently coming together to form their red-pill, feminist and religious propaganda, and from that, your odd school shooting with 2035 AI robots created by a kid that got rejected by his crush.

Your points are:

• Cloud AI can be cheaper for low-use customers
• Frontier model training still requires enormous datasets and comput
• Outsourcing sensitive data can create genuine privacy risks
• Local AI will not economically suit every user

Big fucking deal. These are obvious points you're making with even more obvious solutions, most of which I've already stated and or alluded to. You sound like the Greta Thunberg of AI, but far more annoying, less educated, and more oblivious. 

Your audience is giving this way too much compute. I've given this way too much compute, this is unpaid digital standup right here on my part.

Politely, I am now walking away for good. 

I liked reading this, it was a high quality intellectual diss. I'm here for it. 

[AION]

I’m getting on BTC at 35k

[KosmicGeng]

1 hour ago, oOo said:

Dang I'm good!  

This video dropped just two or so hours ago and popped up just now on my feed, well after my initial comments relating to in this thread. 

The wire is live now on this one folks, the wire is now live.

I did not watch the video, a professors just posted something about these mac book/server thingies, on LinkedIn that they use the chines model Qwen? smth. I am not getting behind all of the latest tech news I am so bomarded by stuff curently, but the post was interesting, somehow they lack performance still IIRC about graphical units etc. so idk what will happen, if chinese and amiercan tech can unite imo world economy is largely saved, it really depends on the politics of war


@Pudgey I checked the model a bit more I can use it for markdown files also, if this continues I definitely get behind some chinese tech, I liked Oppo phones etc in the past and generally enjoy a lot of their stuff, just the voice recognition and speaking to a model on a consumer level for me is missing from what I saw.

[vinc3nc]

@AION I was calling for 40K to happen in early October this year and had been bearish since last October, when BTC topped. But whats happening now, with this BTC rally above 80K has changed things. I’ve stopped being bearish and think the bottom is in.

Nothing is 100%. There can always be a black swan event that fucks everything up. But investing is a game of probabilities, and I give it 80% that the bottom is in. It still has to confirm that the bear market is over by making a higher high on the weekly, but if you’re waiting for confirmation, you will always be late to the party.

HF waiting for 35k BTC.

[AION]

@vinc3nc BTC price is linked to public perception so I’m curious what kind of analysis you are doing and making what conclusions lol

[vinc3nc]

@AION One example: the last three bull runs lasted 1064-1071 days. So, almost the exact same length of time (within 1 week). The last two bear markets lasted around 365 days. This one, if it bottoms in early October, will also have lasted around 365 days.

If it's already bottomed, then that was 268 days, which is something that has never happened before (a short bear market), but then again, at some point this pattern has to break, right?

Public perception? Well, BTC becomes cheaper and cheaper in people’s eyes the more it drops, especially as it gets closer to that 1-year mark of the bear market.

Edited 1 hour ago by vinc3nc

[Leo Gura]

Public perception won't matter when the market crashes.

[vinc3nc]

Bears sound smart, Bulls make money.