The AI crash is impossible - Change my View

[Lyubov]

As someone who uses AI in my work, it sure does make a ton of ridiculous errors and some truly odd reasonings. It almost is like a toddler you need to constantly coax and hold it’s hand, it gets exhausting, I don’t feel like I’m working less or am so much more productive. Maybe I am marginally more efficient? This shit is NOT replacing us en masse anytime soon. 

Edited 14 hours ago by Lyubov

[Lyubov]

The people hyping AI the most are effectively unemployed people who talk about it online a lot and the tech crowd believing their own hype and propaganda, they raise funds with their buddies and the dopamine rush they get from that blinds them of the truth.  

I can’t say I’ve met anyone with a real job or anyone actually employed having a substantial portion of their work taken over by the AI. They are burning a fuck ton of fresh water just to write their emails a bit faster. 

All those layoffs are speculation and because we are in a quiet recession on par with 2008. It’s not because AI has actually replaced anyone. 

Edited 13 hours ago by Lyubov

[Peo]

16 minutes ago, Lyubov said:

As someone who uses AI in my work, it sure does make a ton of ridiculous errors and some truly odd reasonings. It almost is like a toddler you need to constantly coax and hold it’s hand, it gets exhausting, I don’t feel like I’m working less or am so much more productive. Maybe I am marginally more efficient? This shit is NOT replacing us en masse anytime soon. 

True, but it's accuracy is developing rapidly. It gets better over a few months rather then years. AI is accelerating. Just compare some AI image generation from 2023 to 2026. It gets a lot more realistic and makes a less anatomy mistakes. 

[Lyubov]

1 hour ago, Peo said:

True, but it's accuracy is developing rapidly. It gets better over a few months rather then years. AI is accelerating. Just compare some AI image generation from 2023 to 2026. It gets a lot more realistic and makes a less anatomy mistakes. 

Does it though (develop rapidly)? How does that actually pan out in relation to all the real world promises made? I’ve heard this before about how AI advances fast but it seems the only metric often cited is AI slop stuff like this. Yes it has gotten better at generating clips you can make funny videos from. Replacing people and radically changing all sorts of industries on a scale never before seen? I’m not holding my breath. I have no problem eating crow if I’m wrong. I’m calling the bluff now. It’s a bubble and there’s a huge wake up call coming. 

Edited 12 hours ago by Lyubov

[RamBam]

@Leo Gura You are massively underestimating how much AI will transform society. 

Game Dev is some of the most complicated code. Nobody is vibe coding multithreaded pipelined cpp. You can't just go "Claude re-write MongoDB in Rust, make no mistakes." There is certainly a lot of work AI cannot do. But only 10% of CS people work on anything of substance, and that is being generous. Most of the industry is grinding out low priority Jiras in React or Java, things AI can already do quite well. Human work in general is, for the most part, highly dull and repetitive. 

For example I think you are wrong that AI couldn't replicate this forum. What is so complicated about it? There are ~1M total posts. Even at 10M reads & 1M writes monthly it would be possible to run everything on a cloud hosted DB for under 10$ a month. Everything is in English so you probably need only 3 deployments for US, UK, AUS.  There is no complicated nested reply structure. Its a CRUD web page that has fairly low traffic. I could easily vibe code a forum with a Firebase backend over the weekend. 

I think it is possible that valuations will collapse. But this would be because Wall Street got detached from reality and not because the tech is not transformative. Same thing happened with the internet. 

AI is already turbo cracked at Math+CS. There are maybe 100 competitive programmers better than AI; you will see a Deep Blue moment where AI becomes #1 in competitive programming and IMO. I challenge you to post any math or programming problem that AI cannot solve. Yes these are compartmentalized repetitive problems in well documented fields, still impressive. AI can translate in real time, generate custom images and video, search 1000 page documents for relevant information, work with applications such as PowerPoint or Excel. Massive funding is flowing into robotics. Expect to see self driving, automated shipping ports, Amazon fulfillment centers completely automated, aspects of food preparation and farming automated, AI powered diagnostics and surgery, military drones and drone defense with no human in the loop. There is going to be massive disruption to the work force and societal structure in general.  

Even in research AI is showing some promise. For example Donald Knuth, who is a CS legend and Stanford professor, published a recent paper "Claude Cycles". This is from the abstract: "Shock! Shock! I learned yesterday that an open problem I’d been working on for several weeks had just been solved by Claude Opus 4.6— Anthropic’s hybrid reasoning model that had been released three weeks earlier! It seems that I’ll have to revise my opinions about “generative AI” one of these days."

Edited 10 hours ago by RamBam

[Leo Gura]

27 minutes ago, RamBam said:

I could easily vibe code a forum with a Firebase backend over the weekend. 

[Natasha Tori Maru]

Well we are certainly learning who is a reductionist in this thread 

[RamBam]

@Leo Gura

Explain technically why Firebase (ik always gets hate, Supabase if you rather) is unsuitable for a forum with <10M reads & <1M writes monthly. Or explain any complicated technical aspects of the forum that go beyond CRUD. Or explain why you think AI cannot do the heavy lifting for a CRUD forum with firebase backend.

This isn't Twitter or Reddit. You don't have to read DDIA to vibe code a forum with 10k users. 

Edited 10 hours ago by RamBam

[CosmicExplorer]

The biggest problem is reliability of AI. Imagine that you have 1000 truck drivers that are willing to work for cheap, and they on average, have the best, superhuman reaction times, are the best drivers. But  like once every 5000 miles they hallucinate objects, cars, trees... that aren't there, or become completly non-responsive for like 8 seconds. 

They would be economically useless, they can't do the job, they're unreliable and dangerous. But look at those benchmarks! On average they have insane statistics!

AI's "floor" is way lower than that of humans.

[VioletFlame]

Just stopping by to declare that AI is destroying humanity and will harm society in a myriad of ways. It poses serious threats to the spirit of mankind. The whole literal purpose of AI is to overthrow humans and REPLACE us. Why on earth does that sound like a good idea to anyone? The ultimate form of dehumanization is AI. And in my opinion, it is self-destructive to want to see AI dominate society. We are already massively devoid of true, authentic human connection. AI will only divide us further and grant us a greater excuse to:

1. Take the easy route & choose laziness and hyper-convenience over human agency, diligence, & real effort

2. Isolate & socially withdraw ourselves

3. (Most importantly) To no longer think for ourselves, & to expect machines and AI to promptly give us all the answers, AND worst of all, assume it's truth, when in all actuality, even AI is erroneous, BIASED, inaccurate, and makes mistakes! On top of that, we are already seeing an over-reliance and extreme dependency to technology in general. Just imagine if the world blacked out and we couldn't use our phones or social media anymore, what would we do? We would all go INSANE. Think for a second just how pathetic that is. 

AI encourages us to NOT think for ourselves and discourages us to develop real skills; it discourages cognitive autonomy & critical thinking. If AI plans to do everything for us, then I predict we will develop learned helplessness, and we will lack the desire or WILL to do anything ourselves or to learn anything at all on our own. We will become conditioned to believe that AI is superior and that personal effort is futile or unnecessary. If something else is doing everything for us, why should we do it? The mentality of our future is "Oh well, AI will take care of it so, why bother?" It is human nature to choose convenience over challenge & difficulty, but that doesn't make it wise or right or beneficial for mankind. It only disrupts the process of growth, consciousness, and true human development.

Edited 8 hours ago by VioletFlame

[bazera]

My workflow depends heaviliy on AI (Claude Opus 4.6), but it always needs proper guidance, reviewing each line it produces, often makes something I don't want and I'm guiding it to course-correct.

Sometimes it just can't fix the issue, even when it sees the full context. That's when I step in manually and help it myself.

It's a whole process where me and opus are both heavily invested. 

I'm not sure why are we discussing human replacement when it's so apparent that even best LLM models need human involvement and orchestration.

Can LLMs literally replace you and do your job? No (depends on what you do)

But it changes the workflow for sure. With the obvious downsides like the possibility of skill degradation, mind rotting, no more incentive for technical debth, etc.

And it's not fun anymore. When I was coding in the past it was more adventurous, I felt I was advancing my skills daily and weekly.

Now I just talk with a chatbot and review the code, and occasionally do debugging manually. Sometimes I wish we could go back.

But on the other hand, it can super charge the learning process. LLMs can be used very effectively to assist your education. It doesn't replace books but supercharges them. When reading a book simultaniously I can chat with LLM about a topic I didnt fully understood in a book and get it cleared.

[bazera]

Quote

Just imagine if the world blacked out and we couldn't use our phones or social media anymore, what would we do? We would all go INSANE. 

@VioletFlame  If that happens, not having ChatGPT is the last thing we'd worry about 

But yeah, humanity is getting very depended on thinking with LLMs. Me included. 

I'm in the process of learning how to balance independent vs LLM assisted thinking. Because it's very tempting when you've got some question to just ask Claude.

But it's not responsible way of using mind for sure.

Edited 5 hours ago by bazera

[bazera]

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DVgNBb9kymA/?igsh=cjdsYWlreXc2anZi

What could go wrong 

[LordFall]

7 hours ago, VioletFlame said:

Just stopping by to declare that AI is destroying humanity and will harm society in a myriad of ways. It poses serious threats to the spirit of mankind. The whole literal purpose of AI is to overthrow humans and REPLACE us. Why on earth does that sound like a good idea to anyone? The ultimate form of dehumanization is AI. And in my opinion, it is self-destructive to want to see AI dominate society. We are already massively devoid of true, authentic human connection. AI will only divide us further and grant us a greater excuse to:

1. Take the easy route & choose laziness and hyper-convenience over human agency, diligence, & real effort

2. Isolate & socially withdraw ourselves

3. (Most importantly) To no longer think for ourselves, & to expect machines and AI to promptly give us all the answers, AND worst of all, assume it's truth, when in all actuality, even AI is erroneous, BIASED, inaccurate, and makes mistakes! On top of that, we are already seeing an over-reliance and extreme dependency to technology in general. Just imagine if the world blacked out and we couldn't use our phones or social media anymore, what would we do? We would all go INSANE. Think for a second just how pathetic that is. 

AI encourages us to NOT think for ourselves and discourages us to develop real skills; it discourages cognitive autonomy & critical thinking. If AI plans to do everything for us, then I predict we will develop learned helplessness, and we will lack the desire or WILL to do anything ourselves or to learn anything at all on our own. We will become conditioned to believe that AI is superior and that personal effort is futile or unnecessary. If something else is doing everything for us, why should we do it? The mentality of our future is "Oh well, AI will take care of it so, why bother?" It is human nature to choose convenience over challenge & difficulty, but that doesn't make it wise or right or beneficial for mankind. It only disrupts the process of growth, consciousness, and true human development.

You don't understand what AI does or what being human is being about. You're taking about substance not structure. All these things are all possible in an AI powered society and probably even more so. Remember that people thought electricity was gonna ruin mankind due to being a demonic force and the amish still don't use it today. 

AI is about automating labor. The rest is up to you my friend. 

[freedestiny]

8 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

It's not that clear cut. Just last week Don Knuth, who is like the OG computer scientist, wrote a paper about how LLM basically solved the problem for him which he and his friends couldn't - https://cs.stanford.edu/~knuth/papers/claude-cycles.pdf. And Don Knuth was big AI sceptic before.

But he is very inteligent obviously so he could use AI efficiently. Writing forum software is basically, apart of the design of it, an integration problem - how to reuse already written pieces of software. This is the biggest problem today and people in AI world are trusting this is going to get solved, I believe.

Edited 2 hours ago by freedestiny

[Joshe]

Cognitive decline due to AI usage would mostly only occur in minds still under development. Even unserious thinkers who believe everything the AI tells them will be made more intelligent by AI, not less. 

 

Edited 2 hours ago by Joshe

[Leo Gura]

22 minutes ago, freedestiny said:

Just last week Don Knuth, who is like the OG computer scientist, wrote a paper about how LLM basically solved the problem for him which he and his friends couldn't -

I don't care. None of this is understanding.

[Natasha Tori Maru]

25 minutes ago, Joshe said:

Cognitive decline due to AI usage would mostly only occur in minds still under development. Even unserious thinkers who believe everything the AI tells them will be made more intelligent by AI, not less. 

 

Who's mind isn't still developing in some way?

[bazera]

33 minutes ago, Joshe said:

Even unserious thinkers who believe everything the AI tells them will be made more intelligent by AI, not less. 

It will make them even lazier and depended on some chatbot.

[Joshe]

3 minutes ago, bazera said:

It will make them even lazier and depended on some chatbot.

I used to think that too, until a few hours ago. I’ll explain why it’s not the case in a new post.