WWIII Might Have Started

[PurpleTree]

Gpt

Here’s a comprehensive list of active state-based armed conflicts (i.e., involving at least one government) currently ongoing worldwide, based on UCDP’s most recent data:

 

 

 

 

🌍 Europe

 

 

Azerbaijan (involving Armenian-held Artsakh)

Russia (e.g., internal or border disputes)

Russia – Ukraine (including Crimea)

 

 

 

🕌 Middle East

 

 

Iran – Israel

Iran (internal)

Iraq (internal insurgency)

Israel – Palestine

Israel – Southern Lebanon (Hezbollah)

Syria (government vs. rebels)

Syria – Islamic State

Syria – Rojava (Kurdish forces)

Turkey – Kurdistan

Yemen (government vs. Houthi rebels)

 

 

 

🌏 Asia

 

 

Afghanistan (government)

Afghanistan – Islamic State

India (government)

India – Kashmir

Indonesia – West Papua

Myanmar (government vs. ethnic groups)

Myanmar – Rakhine, Kachin, Karen, Karenni, Kokang

Pakistan (government)

Pakistan – Balochistan

Pakistan – Islamic State

Philippines (government)

Philippines – Islamic State

Thailand – Patani (Malay Muslim insurgency)

 

 

 

🌍 Africa

 

 

Benin (government)

Burkina Faso (government)

Burkina Faso – Islamic State

Burundi (government)

Cameroon (government)

Cameroon – Ambazonia

Cameroon – Islamic State

Central African Republic (government)

CAR – Logone rebellion

Chad (government)

DR Congo (government)

DR Congo – Islamic State

Ethiopia (government)

Ethiopia – Amhara region

Ethiopia – Oromiya region

Kenya – Northeastern Province/Coast unrest

Mali (government)

Mali – Islamic State

Mali – Azawad separatists

Mozambique – Islamic State

Niger (government)

Niger – Islamic State

Nigeria (government)

Nigeria – Islamic State

Nigeria – Biafra separatists

Rwanda (government)

Somalia (government)

Sudan (government)

Togo (government)

 

 

 

🌎 Americas

 

 

Colombia (government vs. guerrillas)

 

 

 

 

 

📌 Notes & Context

 

 

Total state-based conflicts in 2023: 59 — a record high since 1946  .

Total state-based conflicts in 2024: 61 — an all-time high ().

Many of these involve separatist/territorial struggles (e.g., West Papua, Amhara) or battles with violent non-state actors like IS.

This list focuses on government vs. other parties; it excludes purely non-state conflicts (e.g., tribal violence, militias without state involvement).

 

 

 

 

Would you like casualty estimates, intensity levels, or a regional geographic map of these conflicts? I can also break them down by wars vs minor clashes using UCDP intensity thresholds.

 

[Sincerity]

10 hours ago, Joshe said:

@Sincerity It’s kind of like conspiracy theories. Intellectual people usually have a knee-jerk negative judgement to things like this. This was the first thing I thought of when I felt an impulse to share the video myself.

Notice how Leo and his sycophants won’t even engage with the analysis due to their pre-judgement. I bet you they watched the video but can’t offer a single argument for how his position is flawed. They’re either using a flawed heuristic, are jealous, or just aren’t very open minded.

Not open minded enough to realize it’s possible for an intelligent person to talk openly about such taboo on social media and the main drive not be chasing clicks. 

It’s possible this dude is just chasing clicks, but it’s ridiculous to use use such a simple heuristic to claim that is the case, especially when his reasoning is as solid as it is, and he has a successful track record of predictions using game theory. 

Very good points, I agree.

I think what people miss is that the start of WW3 doesn’t have to look like nukes flying over our heads. Do you really need to see something so explicit to see the world is at war, or approaching it?

Before WW2 „started” in 1939, war has been raging in the East since 1937 and Germany has been pursuing expansive policies since 1933. When Hitler annexed Austria and Czechoslovakia in 1938-1939, would you call people stupid who said the world is heading to war again?

Have a little imagination. There is a LOT of tension in the world on so many different fronts. The world seems to be literally itching for war, where most countries would in some way be entangled, due to alliances and such. That’s what makes it a world war. I’m not talking about nukes from the get-go.

And a character like Trump is only accelerating everything, putting pressure and strain on country relations.

This is not unreasonable in the slightest. Anyone dismissing it outright is simply closed-minded. At least provide arguments, lol.

My bet is that there will be a world war by 2028, most likely by 2027. Again, because there is simply too much tension between countries and the leader of the most powerful country on Earth is an unintelligent egomaniac. We already have a war in Ukraine since 2022, a genocide in Gaza and a looming regional war in the Middle East now. Add Koreas to that when North Korea senses there is a good opportunity to strike. Add China when they sense a good moment to strike Taiwan, when the US is distracted. It doesn’t take much more to get a world war, where major powers are entangled. But we’re not talking about ground invasions of the US/China/Russia or necessarily using nukes. Really, just open your mind to scenarios.

@Leo Gura I encourage you to make a definitive prediction whether WW3 will happen soon (let’s say by 2028) or not, based purely on the state of the world right now. You can add to that what you deem a world war is - we need to be on the same page. To repeat once more for clarity, I am not necessarily talking about nukes from the get-go or ground invasions of top countries.

If you ask me whether a nuke will be detonated by 2028 anywhere in the world - I don’t know. I don’t think so, but it’s possible. I give it a 20% chance, let’s say.

If you consider your analysis of the state of the world superior, make the prediction and stick to it, and we’ll see what the future will bring. Your dismissals with zero arguments are disrespectful and not fun to engage with.

Btw, I’m not attached to this and I’m not some conspiracy theorist. It’s just what I predict will happen, based on what is today and the characters involved. My posts here are not fueled by fear, moreso by curiosity and excitement.

Edited June 27 by Sincerity

[yetineti]

The speculation in this thread is rampant.

If WWIII does start it will be because a bunch of schmucks on the internet convinced you all it already did.

Go clean your rooms.

 

Edited June 27 by yetineti

[Sincerity]

5 minutes ago, yetineti said:

The speculation in this thread is rampant.

It was some YouTube click bait guys.

Had you guys dealt with some more conflict yourself, you’d know that speculating and conspiring over such matters is potentially the most unproductive, catalyzing thing one could do.

If WWIII does start it will be because a bunch of schmucks on the internet convinced you all it already did.

Go clean your rooms.

Get off your high horse. This is the most reddit post I have ever read on this forum. The obnoxiousness is appalling.

Don’t engage in the thread if you don’t like it. You didn’t provide any arguments or perspective anyway.

[yetineti]

@Sincerity

I’m being humble by not engaging with your conspiracies and speculation. And that is a valid form of engagement here.

This is a serious matter.

Anyone can make guesses and predictions.

But can you just sit with that without all your guess work? No.

 

[BlueOak]

19 minutes ago, yetineti said:

@Sincerity

Anyone can make guesses and predictions.

 

The patterns leading to World War have been obvious for 20 years to me, just by observation and acceptance of other persepctives. The only guess i'd be making is if they are reversed, altered, or not. Weighed against human nature seeking safety rather than danger and how that need is met. I see no evidence that violence is dissuading anyone enough, which is the most worrying trend that the rise of the authoritarian right has brought about.

Currently, these patterns are not being altered; ergo, a prediction of world war is not rampant speculation, as you put it, it's a reasonable deduction. If you want to discuss those patterns, we can do but to dismiss those talking about them is frankly bizarre. 

I keep wanting to add some hope here, so I will in some form, I will add an optimistic hope that out of this pressure cooker we are all in currently, it will result in a positive condition for the planet, but I feel on this I am speculating, rather than reading a pattern.

Edited June 27 by BlueOak

[Sincerity]

@yetineti I doubt you yourself know what you are talking about, and why. Where exactly is there any „conspiracy” talk in anything I wrote? Do you know what a conspiracy is, or are you just throwing words around?

If the mere concept of WWIII and high tensions in the world is so difficult for you to grasp, then I don’t know what to tell you.

Yes, „anyone can make predictions”, but the point is to make educated predictions which test your understanding. Making good predictions is generally a sign of good understanding. If my predictions are wrong, then I will admit that. But then again, I am not attached to them.

If someone completely dismisses WWIII and then soon it actually happens, that says something about the person’s understanding. Then again, if someone is 100% set on the fact that we will get a war and we don’t, that’s also a sign of wrong understanding. But I am not that. I have a prediction but I’m willing to be wrong.

And really, stop with the reddit-like obnoxiousness. If you have the same attitude with people IRL, that’s not wholesome 100.

[yetineti]

@BlueOak @Sincerity

I didn’t dismiss or disagree or say either of you were wrong at all. You’ve completely missed the point.

Doubt my knowledge. I didn’t share any of it.

I said this speculation is rampant.

Which it is.

I said nothing about making predictions, speculations, pattern recognition or anything of the sort, in general.

I predict the sun will rise tomorrow.

Don’t project on me. Make better predictions about things that matter.

Also, find better content providers.

 

 

 

[BlueOak]

9 hours ago, yetineti said:

 

Make better predictions about things that matter.

 

While I have heard people comment that we could live in a self contained reality that was oblivious to a world war, I tend to think it a bit far-fetched.

Hence this matters. Becomes material to our lives. This particular pattern is defining a lot of it.

 

9 hours ago, yetineti said:

I said nothing about making predictions, speculations, pattern recognition or anything of the sort, in general.

 

10 hours ago, yetineti said:

The speculation in this thread is rampant.

 

 

Edited June 28 by BlueOak

[yetineti]

@BlueOak

Editing my quote was awfully shallow.

[yetineti]

Frankly I may be more concerned about WWIII than you guys.

Which is why I don’t waste my time talking about it.

[BlueOak]

@yetineti

*I have removed the letter I, it was not an intentional misquote. The post remains the same.

Edited June 28 by BlueOak

[Sincerity]

China is preparing for war.

[Basman]

Not to say that China isn't necessarily going to invade Taiwan, I haven't watched the video yet, but preparing for war isn't necessarily the same as wanting war generally speaking. Just being capable of war is a necessary part of monopolizing violence. Every functional country has war plans prepared that they can execute on. The equivalent of keeping a loaded gun under your pillow.

[Sincerity]

26 minutes ago, Basman said:

Not to say that China isn't necessarily going to invade Taiwan, I haven't watched the video yet, but preparing for war isn't necessarily the same as wanting war generally speaking. Just being capable of war is a necessary part of monopolizing violence. Every functional country has war plans prepared that they can execute on. The equivalent of keeping a loaded gun under your pillow.

Well, best case scenario of them is of course acquiring Taiwan without sparking war with other countries like the US, Japan, Australia. So for sure they do NOT want a long-term war with other players involved, but they DO want "war" as in invading Taiwan, sooner or later.

They're literally doing military training on a replica of downtown Taipei which they created in their desert. Next level planning lol.

Edited June 30 by Sincerity

[Basman]

Training martial arts exercise is essentially preparing for violence. Military exercise is the same but differs in that you have to train for violence against a specific target. There are no neutral or general war plans on a geopolitical level. 

Of course, invading Taiwan wouldn't exactly be a defensive war. It would be an assault ordinarily speaking though the Chinese could genuinely believe it to be defensive somehow, like how the Ukraine war is defensive for Putin. I can genuinely see China invading Taiwan the moment they see it being more beneficial than detrimental to their agenda. Being prepared for that moment is in of itself part of maintaining the agenda.

[Joshe]

On 6/27/2025 at 3:34 AM, Leo Gura said:

@Joshe Wake me up when the nukes start flying.

Might as well not even bother waking up. Lol. 

Edited June 30 by Joshe

[BlueOak]

This was teals take on it:
 

I also want to say here that she dispels my main assumption that people could be in a world war but not know it.

Edited June 30 by BlueOak

[Wilhelm44]

On 6/25/2025 at 6:46 PM, Sincerity said:

I found this analysis (and other videos and this channel as a whole) of high quality. Sharing as a good resource.

We might be a little cooked.

Here's another perspective on this guy.

 

[PurpleTree]

2 hours ago, Wilhelm44 said:

Here's another perspective on this guy.

 

Who is this guy Destiny? He has a girls name and he’s very annoying. This is hardly a « perspective »