Trump Policies & Actions Mega-Thread

[WikiRando]

@Breakingthewall I see the value of this perspective and I agree that China is playing it long and subtle instead of fast and loud. Which ties in to their respect of stability and hierarchy. We've been through this before but they still have a huge geographic and energy disadvantage and lack the mililtary alliances and trust. Instead they have reliance on Russia and Middle east for oil, expansionism in S China Sea and indebted small countries, and their best friends are the likes of Russia, N Korea, compared to what the US has (bases everywhere, EU, Saudi and allies, Japan, S Korea, UK, Aus, on and on)

But the main reason why I believe China is not close to number 1 yet even if their economy size and manufacturing is, is because of the dollar dominance. People just do not appreciate the role the US dollar has in the financial system. There is like a trillion a day or more of volume on US rails. Until I see that trillion or more daily volume flowing into the Chinese system, they just are solidly not number 1. Yet. Who runs and controls the financial system is the number 1.

The liquidity, market depth and and network effect of the US financial system is unparalleled. We have barely even begun a transition to a Chinese financial system. Although Trump could certainly hasten it

 

Edited April 9 by WikiRando

[Breakingthewall]

47 minutes ago, WikiRando said:

The liquidity, market depth and and network effect of the US financial system is unparalleled

The dollar's hegemony isn't eternal; the world is changing very rapidly. Dependence on the dollar is like dependence on a drug; the moment you lack it, you collapse. As soon as the US shows a lack of stability, the dollar will begin to be replaced, and it may be a very rapid process.

In the past, the US has used force to impose the dollar, as when Gaddafi tried to use the gold dirham, but now US military might is just another force between many. If, for example, there were a war in Iran and China and Russia supported Iran, the US would be totally defeated, and its hegemony would be over. This probably won't happen, but the fact is that the US is no longer the hegemonic military power; it is clearly inferior to others. This has never happened since World War II. 

On the other hand, China is slowly advancing on solid foundations. It is not interested in being a financial power, but rather an industrial one. Its internal market and development potential are enormous, and the efficiency with which progress is being made is unprecedented. In Africa, it has displaced the predatory French and British colonialists, interested in keeping Africa in misery and plundering its resources, and is creating infrastructure and fostering development.

The American short-term move in Ukraine has served to sell gas and weapons, but has resulted in the emergence of Russia as a real military power ready for real war. Fostering a Sino-Russian alliance has been foolish, and now Trump will likely accelerate the fall. It seems inevitable, the time of EEUU is finishing.

[zazen]

@Breakingthewall@WikiRando

MAGA say they would prefer a surplus over a deficit, but would also love to have the dollar remain the global reserve currency. Being the world’s reserve currency means the rest of the world needs dollars - which means the US has to export dollars, usually by importing more than it exports. That’s why the US runs chronic trade deficits (even has the privilege to be able to do so) - due to dollar dominance.

MAGA are correct that being solely a consumer rather than producer isn’t healthy long term - lack of resilience, anti-fragile. There has to be a balance between being the worlds consumer and producer - a buyer and a builder. Something China has done well. China builds so it can buy. America buys so it can dominate - and forgot how to build along the way. China can balance being a builder and a buyer because it doesn’t have the global reserve currency - and it doesn’t want the structural obligations that come with it - that structurally undermine it from that balancing act.

Dollar dominance is real, but narrow. It matters most in the financialized layer of the global economy as WikiRando had laid out some pages back - capital markets, cross-border settlements, central bank reserves, and commodity pricing. But real world trade and national strategies are already de-dollarizing. The US acting how it is, and weaponizing its core strength, only hastens that trend. The dollar still wears the crown, but its throne is financialized and fragile. The world is trading less in dollars, but still financing in dollars. That gap is exactly where the future multipolar system is being born.

The dollar will remain important without being supreme. Just like Britain’s pound after World War II - relevant, but no longer ruling the world. There won’t be a formal announcement either as it's not black and white. It's a slow erosion of it's supremacy, but not of its importance, owing to the size of the US's economy and fundamentals.

MAGA want the benefits of nationalism and the privileges of empire - but without paying the costs of either: they want to offload the costs of empire onto allies, while rebuilding domestic capacity, without surrendering reserve status.

Triffin’s Dilemma = The reserve currency issuer must sacrifice domestic industry to supply the world with money. To lead globally, you must sacrifice domestically. To rebuild domestically, you must sacrifice global leadership.

MAGA wants to reverse domestic decline, but also keep the reserve status.

To do both is structurally contradictory.

Edited April 9 by zazen

[WikiRando]

Yes things move very rapidly like with the tariff announcements and it's not black or white, lotta nuance is required. And it doesn't mean the US will be completely weak or irrelevant either just as UK wasn't. But overall I appreciate the discussion and I'm learning a lot! 

 I am curious about the idea that China doesn't want a world reserve currency. We talked about the limitations of it. Do they really aim to achieve dominance without it? If they don't want to be the world reserve currency, how do they see their relationship with the US and their entrenchment in the US based financial system? Surely if they build new rails they would want to be the reserve currency too, or is that a false assumption? I guess it makes sense to just let the US continue running out of gas.

Lastly, I find the existence of bitcoin interesting and possibly valuable as a neutral asset in this multipolar context.

 

Edited April 9 by WikiRando

[zazen]

11 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

I have a trade deficit with my toilet.

Guess we're all being exploited by our toilets - as we export shit to them daily without any return.

This whole tariff to correct trade deficits discourse has exposed a real deficit in common sense. Even if no tariffs existed between a rich country which can consume, and a poor country that doesn't have the wealth to - a deficit will remain.

The richer country is always going to buy more from the poorer one, than the poorer one can buy from the rich one. Wealth creates consumption power that poor nations simply can't match. 
 

 

Edited April 9 by zazen

[Breakingthewall]

1 hour ago, WikiRando said:

I guess it makes sense to just let the US continue running out of gas

I'd say that they don't want to "beat" the US. China wants wealth; it doesn't matter to them whether they're better than the West. What's essential is not to be dominated by the West, because they've already been, and for them, it's a great shame. The decline of the US and the resulting instability is not of interest to China; they are interested in stability so they can do business.

Regarding being the reserve currency and getting their wealth from it, I would say that they see it as a guarantee of long-term decline, it is better to work and produce

As en example, listen to this Chinese, is amazing 😅 

 

Edited April 9 by Breakingthewall

[Elliott]

China increased tariff on American goods to 84%.

What if everyone stops buying American goods, we win?

I was skeptical before, but is Trump our dumbest president ever? I think he's gotten dumber.

Edited April 9 by Elliott

[DocWatts]

If you live in the States, call your Senators and demand that they vote NO on the SAVE Act and the No Rogue Rulings Act. Both passed the House by razor thin margins and will be signed into law if they're not killed in the Senate, where they're due for a vote soon.

The former is a expansive voter suppression bill that would disenfranchise tens of millions of voters by requiring rarely-used and expensive citizenship documents in order to vote, under the guise of the the GOP's Big Lie that millions of undocumented immigrants are supposedly voting in US elections.

The latter is a blatant attempt to strip courts of their independence, so that Trump can rule by decree like a King, by stripping the courts of their ability to order national injunctions against Trump's unconstitutional behavior. The Courts are one of the few Constitutional checks on Trump's power that's largely working as intended, which is why MAGA is so fixated on destroying their independence.

Edited April 11 by DocWatts

[Elliott]

China raised tarrifs on u.s. goods to 125% lol

 

https://bsky.app/profile/ronsalas.com/post/3lmlda6mbq22d

 

Creative protest sign that moves, Trump puting his head up his ass.

Edited April 12 by Elliott

[Elliott]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-trump-fund-managers-tariffs-b2730989.html

2 days ago · Fund managers quietly fear Trump doesn’t have a tariff plan and that he ‘might be insane’ Some fund managers concerned ‘that the White House is not acting rationally, but rather on ideology. And some even fear that this may not even be ideology’

Edited April 12 by Elliott

[Leo Gura]

All these tariffs are just a bluff. Trump will not carry them out in the end. He's just using bluster for attention.

[Elliott]

Trump raised tarrifs to 145%

 

https://www.newsweek.com

Why China's Rare Earth Curbs Could Devastate US Defense Industry

1 day ago · China first responded on April 3 to Trump's initial salvo of 54 percent levies on its exports by placing export restrictions on rare earth

 

Winning so hard

Edited April 12 by Elliott

[Elliott]

Republicans are telling Amazon to ban books

 

 

 

[zazen]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-12/trump-exempts-phones-computers-chips-from-reciprocal-tariffs

Blinked first. Balls in Chinas court now - they could just keep the tariffs they have in place and this would actually widen the trade deficit as the US exports are totally cut off whilst only a minority of Chinas would be. Art of the deal.

 Commented this just over a month ago. Like I said in the end, Trump/US don't hold the cards. All these MAGA boys writing FAFO as Trump and his camp were bullying the world, fucked around, and found out.

On 07/03/2025 at 6:46 PM, zazen said:

They won't defeat China for the same reason they can't defeat Russia - China has even more of the advantages that Russia does. It's delusional to think you can go up against a near peer country with not just equivalent but superior industrial capacity to you, in their own sphere of influence and backyard where they have the home advantage, and superior logistics to push their production to the front line and into the theatre of war. 

This is if they even get to land. They'd first have to win in the sea - but China has 200 times the ship building capacity of the US, and the world largest navy.

Their only hope is economic, but even there they most likely will fail. Trump has announced tariffs to address the $300 billion trade deficit between US and China. For China to lose $300 billion worth of trade due to these tariffs is the equivalent of them losing the GDP of their 10th largest city in GDP - which is Wuhan ironically lol. It's a bruise on the arm, but not crippling at all.

 

Like Trump said to Zelensky “You don’t have the cards”

Crusader Hegseth should know the defeat isn’t just militarily, but also economically, diplomatically and morally.

Edited April 12 by zazen

[zazen]

''These countries are calling us up, kissing my ass''

''We borrow money from Chinese peasants, to buy the things those Chinese peasants make''

 ''I can tell the rest of the world, I'm not sure whether it's the prime minister or the economic minister in Spain made some comments this morning:

''Oh, well, maybe we should align ourselves more with China.'' That would be cutting your own throat.

''We can probably reach a deal with with our allies, with the other countries that have been long term, they've been good military allies, not perfect economic allies. And then we can approach China as a group.''

China's comments:

- Spanish PM in China right now: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/pedro-sanchez-china-spain-donald-trump-europe-b2731391.html

- EU China Summit planned for July: https://www.reuters.com/world/eu-leaders-plan-beijing-trip-july-summit-with-chinas-xi-scmp-reports-2025-04-10/

- EU and UAE launching free trade talks: https://www.reuters.com/world/eu-uae-agree-launch-free-trade-talks-2025-04-10/

- EU China looking to set a minimum price for Chinese EV's: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/eu-china-start-talks-lifting-eu-tariffs-chinese-electric-vehicles-handelsblatt-2025-04-10/

Must be 5D Chess. A lot of people think Trump has no plan, but don't think his team don't. Trumps just there for the lights and cameras to inflate his ego. Stephan Miran literally laid it out - its just that its failing. The idea that you can intimidate and coerce your ''allies'' and other nations into concessions, to subsidize your empire, whilst mocking them is just back ass stupid. His final point was literally ''Fifth, they could simply write checks to Treasury that help us finance global public goods.'' https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/2025/04/cea-chairman-steve-miran-hudson-institute-event-remarks/

That's basically buying US gov debt, to reduce rates, so that they can continue to finance their empire on the cheap and meet their towering debt obligations due to roll this year - to the tune of trillions. That money of course won't actually go into public investment, welfare or infrastructure at the benefit of the everyday citizen.

They want to set up a tributary architecture of empire. But the world says no. The US thinks in its arrogance, that it can imperially bully the world as it did. No more. Fuck America Inc (the empire), not the American people.

Edited April 12 by zazen

[Elliott]

37 minutes ago, zazen said:

''These countries are calling us up, kissing my ass''

''We borrow money from Chinese peasants, to buy the things those Chinese peasants make''

 ''I can tell the rest of the world, I'm not sure whether it's the prime minister or the economic minister in Spain made some comments this morning:

''Oh, well, maybe we should align ourselves more with China.'' That would be cutting your own throat.

''We can probably reach a deal with with our allies, with the other countries that have been long term, they've been good military allies, not perfect economic allies. And then we can approach China as a group.''

China's comments:

- Spanish PM in China right now: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/pedro-sanchez-china-spain-donald-trump-europe-b2731391.html

- EU China Summit planned for July: https://www.reuters.com/world/eu-leaders-plan-beijing-trip-july-summit-with-chinas-xi-scmp-reports-2025-04-10/

- EU and UAE launching free trade talks: https://www.reuters.com/world/eu-uae-agree-launch-free-trade-talks-2025-04-10/

- EU China looking to set a minimum price for Chinese EV's: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/eu-china-start-talks-lifting-eu-tariffs-chinese-electric-vehicles-handelsblatt-2025-04-10/

Must be 5D Chess. A lot of people think Trump has no plan, but don't think his team don't. Trumps just there for the lights and cameras to inflate his ego. Stephan Miran literally laid it out - its just that its failing. The idea that you can intimidate and coerce your ''allies'' and other nations into concessions, to subsidize your empire, whilst mocking them is just back ass stupid. His final point was literally ''Fifth, they could simply write checks to Treasury that help us finance global public goods.'' https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/2025/04/cea-chairman-steve-miran-hudson-institute-event-remarks/

That's basically buying US gov debt, to reduce rates, so that they can continue to finance their empire on the cheap and meet their towering debt obligations due to roll this year - to the tune of trillions. That money of course won't actually go into public investment, welfare or infrastructure at the benefit of the everyday citizen.

They want to set up a tributary architecture of empire. But the world says no. The US thinks in its arrogance, that it can imperially bully the world as it did. No more. Fuck America Inc (the empire), not the American people.

Trump has no "allies".

[Jacob Morres]

@Leo Gura whats his motive? Is he just dumb or is it sinister? 

[Breakingthewall]

It's lke a boy who was a bully in elementary school and everyone feared him, and now in middle school he tries to intimidate and everyone looks at him like: Didn't you understand that was in elementary school? Now we hang out with girls, dress cool, laugh at bullies and you are nobody. Grow up, retard. And the bully goes crying to the psychologist. 

[Leo Gura]

6 hours ago, Jacob Morres said:

@Leo Gura whats his motive? Is he just dumb or is it sinister? 

We have already explained that.

[Joshe]

10 hours ago, Elliott said:

Republicans are telling Amazon to ban books

 

I’m suspicious of this one. David’s new book sales probably went the through the roof after posting this video. The comments are filled with people saying they just bought the book after the video dropped. If this story is actually true, Pakman lucked up big time. I’d hate to think this is a scheme to drive up book sales but I do wonder. I still like Pakman but something about him seems off. Almost seems like an intelligent sociopath or something.