BlueOak

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  1. There you go, the two later lines sell themselves, no need to convince me of how progressive he is. You'll get no argument and no pushback.
  2. Don't try and sell this part to progressives. Just say he's better for you all than trump, which he is. I'm not American i'm just going to tell you how silly it sounds, especially now. Rather than get a nod of agreement, you will get counterpoints and widen the divide. I very much want you to win, and that's the easiest path. All you have to deal with is people telling you that's not enough - to which the answer is how bad Trump is and has been. *Maybe when the bloodshed has died down a bit you can try it.
  3. From what I understand, and I am happy to be corrected because I am no expert, there are two main wings in the Chinese government. The trade wing, and the more military wing of the party. Both want Taiwan; they are just pursuing different ends to get it. TBH, if they wanted Taiwan, they should help the US build its semiconductor industry out. Win by default that way and no bloodshed at all.
  4. I'm going to struggle to find old texts on this now, with all the new news stories about it dominating. To be fair, though, there have been so many predictions that you'd be better off asking when it isn't predicted they will invade. Because they keep doing military drills to simulate invasions, one day, it will not be a drill. The main point was. This one was more aggressive than usual, heightened to the point that other governments spoke out or made preparations to warn people. It was harder to tell if this was the real thing or not, which I suppose is the point. Let's put 2024 or thereabouts instead. https://www.ft.com/content/1740a320-5dcb-4424-bfea-c1f22ecb87f7 That's a US admiral. Here's a future prediction for likelihood from global security consultants: 2024 - 2028 https://www.globalguardian.com/global-digest/will-china-invade-taiwan Taiwan Intelligence, and a former national security advisor. https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/beijings-taiwan-invasion-timeline-two-predictions/ Honestly, though, we can pull these links all day. If you don't like these three, I can get another three. I'm sure you can find the opposite, like the video or a comment by other intelligence experts. Thanks for the video; it's one channel I look at sometimes. I do not know if it's definite that China will invade, but I tend to agree it's likely. A further reason that doing it now makes sense is because Ukraine and Israel are both taking the US's attention up.
  5. In America: Average people pay 35%–40% plus taxes, and billionaires pay 17% taxes. This is one reason why you are struggling with your cost of living. You pay their share.
  6. Because a longstanding possibility has been that China will invade Taiwan in June of this year. Russia did exactly this before invading Ukraine. The island is effectively under blockade If this is a wargame, it's to simulate an invasion. Other countries are reacting with rhetoric that indicates they are ready for a war if China pushes it. Such as Japan My government has told us to stock up on food, water, and handheld radios China has recently released maps claiming more territory. The world is in a heightened state of tension, and a precedent has been set for invading others for land. China has a long-standing policy of expanding its borders and has repeatedly claimed Taiwan as its own land. Weighing those against your hope of this being nothing, (and mine) that this is likely more posturing to expose how the allies will react when China invades, there is a possibility.
  7. ---- --- --- Japanese News (can't embed) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HXuwjo-4_wk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GuQfaCb2jBk
  8. Inmendham is probably one of the original anti-natalists, or efilism as his ideology describes. People often hate him, because he's very severe with people; anything that challenges his certainty in this ideology does not receive a normal response. I am a vegan, but you've all seen the Vegans on a crusade, and what happens when you challenge their ideology? That is what most of these concepts remind me of. It's a bit like how I respond to talks about socialism; I am convinced that we lack socially created outcomes; when challenged, I have an instinct to defend that lack. Anti natalism or efilism embodies doing two things taken to an extreme. Considering suffering is not worth what it produces. Devaluing anything that does not fit the ideology. We often think this way about things we disagree with, but this is the exaggerated version, exclusively hinging on value judgments and an inability to see long-term patterns that disagree with the analysis. In efilism, there is disagreement about life being created at all. Only go here if you are balanced and not depressed, because Inmendham is deeply depressed: http://www.efilism.com/
  9. China recently updated its maps to claim more territory from India and many other nations; I posted a thread with a video about it. They got it age restricted so i'll reupload the new one below. A warning in the UK was issued recently about stockpiling food, radios, and water. Is this WW3? Maybe, or maybe its more posturing, to keep throwing people off guard and see how they react.
  10. @Merkabah Star The burden of proof in a civil action is much lower.
  11. A lawsuit from the 9/11 victims is raising these questions. If this is proven true. I would argue authoritarian regimes got what they wanted: a more right-wing authoritarian US and world.
  12. I have almost no national identity beyond self-preservation or romantic moments of culture. I am arguing for the fate of Europe, including Ukraine, to be rationally considered beyond your: Hoping that the ongoing pattern of Putin's aggressive expansion stops because it's painful to witness, and you have a belief that he follows a relatable set of beliefs. I'm not immune to that because I have green in me; it's just not my sole focus. (And you raise some points, but that is your main thrust) I am giving you a stage yellow description of events with as many factors and patterns as possible, including Russian ones, and European fears being manifested/managed. Most of the people we are talking about are in Red, Orange, or Blue, so I have to rationalize from their perspective, not my hopes or wishes. I have to tell you what's going on and why, not how I want it to be, even if that flavors the text. That's the difference between your morals and a pattern. The way to improve my perspective is for a Russian who understands Russia better than I do to comment and deepen my understanding, for other speakers to add things I hadn't considered, or for a more transcendent turquoise perspective to smooth my more rigid focus on patterns; green can do that, but usually, it's too hyper-focused on a self-set code of ethics and morals which the world doesn't share. - That's painful. I am sorry, but showing you that is how you realize their limits. Ukraine had been leaning west for decades. 1994 I believe were the first moves (my main search duckduckgo is down, so I am using an alternative) - Heck Russia was leaning west at one stage. https://theconversation.com/a-short-history-of-ukraines-relationship-with-the-european-union-178350 Most countries are developing, not necessarily better for the average person. That's a whole other conversation. A country suffers when its people do not want the type of ruler and authority that currently runs the country; the level of suffering is often the disparity between the two. Wars are a particular case, obviously, but the suffering was guaranteed the moment Putin tried to rule over people who were not of a close enough mindset. Personally, I wouldn't pick US estimates for this. Too much of their country is pro-Russia, but I do take your point about where you are getting your numbers from. The main reason is that it wouldn't have lasted a year if this were closer to 1.5 to one in terms of casualties. I don't know what you'll say if this goes on for 5 years?
  13. Okay the first is before the aid arrived. It says: Regional armed forces admit ‘difficult situation’ as Kyiv awaits western military aid Let’s take the one after aid arrived: It continues in summary; most of the article is about Ukraine, saying how they are handling the war, with some summary from other countries such as treaties, more aid, and investigations. The Aid is mainly integrated into the line; it takes a couple of weeks to a month from the date of arrival in the country to be fully used. - There is nothing there telling me what you are describing except saying it's difficult because, yeah, it's been a meatgrinder for years. 'Give them more aid' is the subtext. Russia and Ukraine are not the same country. One was going east, one was going west. As the fear of 'the other' got the better of Russia, and because the 'want for better' was in Ukraine, we had a war. Both of those ideologies can cause problems if unchecked. This is why we have the war. Ukraine's quality of life https://www.undp.org/ukraine/press-releases/ukraine-still-country-high-human-development-index-new-undp-report-says It was getting better, that's the point. The population wanted that; we can dive more into this if you like. It might reveal a few nuggets of info. If the war had been swift, there would have been a campaign of bombs, civil unrest, and violence going on. The suffering would have been people disappearing, tortured, imprisoned, etc. You see what Russia does to dissent, and that's among the citizens who have been suppressed all their lives. That's not Ukraine. - Then, as Russia would have had its full capacity still, facing a weakened, indecisive NATO, Moldova and the Baltics would have followed. The world is not fair, no. I am using your reasoning. You are arguing for fairness. This is a stage green point of view - Again, this is a way to stop a wider war. Holding Russia here, that's it. Talking about moral equivalence in war will not change anything; no war is moral. I am sorry to be cold with you, but there is no emotion here; the whole nature of war is to waste life until the desire to fight it no longer exists. But that has to be both sides, or else war in some form will continue. Yes, there will be more death. Expect three times as many Russians to die too. Until their stockpiles are gone, their capacity to wage is neutered, and they are permanently a somewhat indebted client state of China. I should tackle your casualty estimates again: British Estimates: https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/britain-estimates-450000-russian-troops-killed-or-wounded/ 450,000 Russian casualties (dead wounded) French Estimates: https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240503-france-estimates-that-150-000-russian-soldiers-have-been-killed-in-the-ukraine-war 500,000 Russian casualties (dead wounded) US talking about Bahkmut: https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-ukraine?ref=atlanticcityfocus.com The United States estimates Russia suffered one hundred thousand casualties in Bakhmut, including twenty thousand deaths. This is why the fortress was not given up. The only other source we've got of estimates for Ukraine is: 35,000 killed (24,500 conf. by names), 15,000 missing, 3,400 captured, 90,000–100,000 wounded via Museum of Military History Its a bit annoying that we have to estimate so much ourselves
  14. Please give me two recent analysts who support what you are saying: Since receiving and integrating military aid into their army. If everyone is saying it should be easy? - Otherwise, you are following what I was saying: 1) People saw that Ukraine needed aid to maintain the stalemate 2) Press/Media Ran the Story 3) Government gets the support it needs to send aid 4) Aid goes to Ukraine. Yes, they wanted a pro-Russian, anti-democratic government and a slow creeping integration into a Greater Russia concept that Putin has stuck in his head from the USSR days, as with everything else Russia takes. Their invading force was what they thought they needed. They took many police units initially because they felt they'd be dealing with a civilian uprising, not organized military resistance. They didn't, as you don't, understand Ukraine isn't Russia, its so far removed from Russia now that what you are saying is out of reality. Ukraine isn't Georgia. Its many times bigger. Its population was democratic and much closer to joining Europe's way of life. Its identity is so far removed from Russia after two years of war, what you are saying will never happen. If Putin wanted that to happen, he shouldn't have made his campaign against the civilian population; all it did was take nationalism in Ukraine and magnify it tenfold. Why should dictators be rewarded for aggression, blackmail, torture, etc, out of fear? 'Much better off' - No. People who disagree with Putin disappear. Are tortured etc. Almost everyone in Ukraine disagrees with Putin. That's a recipe for suffering. The country is armed to the teeth, at least for another year or so. Both sides suffer for Putin's stupidity, more will suffer if he walks all over Ukraine. As I and so many others keep trying to tell you.