Anderz

Capitalism is getting obsolete

142 posts in this topic

Hmm... The presenter in this video pointed out a problem with universal basic income (UBI). A UBI will just keep the failing capitalist system going for a bit longer. That's a valid point. And automation in a capitalist system will make the wealth inequality much worse than it already is.

The Chinese capitalist model is scary, because it's Orwellian with massive control and surveillance systems. The Chinese model however may be able to deal with automation since the government can control companies and still allow fierce market competition to make good products and services and to keep the prices down.

What may happen I speculate is a Hegelian dialectic scenario where western capitalism is the 1) thesis, the Chinese model the 2) antithesis, and the solution emerging out of both is the 3) synthesis.

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"Hegelian dialectic, usually presented in a threefold manner, was stated by Heinrich Moritz Chalybäus[27] as comprising three dialectical stages of development: a thesis, giving rise to its reaction; an antithesis, which contradicts or negates the thesis; and the tension between the two being resolved by means of a synthesis." - Wikipedia

 

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Here I found another interesting video (from my self-biased perspective :D). I think the scenario where money is no longer needed will happen relatively soon historically speaking due to accelerating technological progress, but my guess is that it will still take two decades before it happens.

 

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I don't know much about world politics or the situation in countries around the world, but the picture often presented in western media of China as a communist dictatorship is misleading I suspect. The west will refuse to adopt the Chinese system I think, but I expect there to be an increased global integration in which China will play a pivotal role. Here is a recent deal between the EU and China:

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"China's president and European leaders met Wednesday to mark their agreement on an investment deal between the European Union and China despite a request for talks on the issue by the incoming administration of President-elect Joe Biden.

Chinese President Xi Jinping, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron joined EU leaders Ursula von der Leyen and Charles Michel in a video conference to conclude negotiations over the deal, which removes a number of barriers to European companies' investment in China." - NPR, Dec 30, 2020

And China is more progressive than one might believe. For example plastic bags are removed in Beijing to save the environment.

And China has done a tremendous job of reducing poverty in the country, and continues to do so.

Unregulated capitalism is unlikely to remove poverty and more likely increase the wealth inequality. And too heavy regulation of the free market leads to inefficiencies. China's capitalist model is more successful than both capitalism and socialism. One problem is the Orwellian control. A possible solution for a global system is an integration of China and the west. Capitalism will then still play a large role but it will become obsolete as the dominating force for production of goods and services.

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Lets see, for now I think of China capitalism  boost was  thanks to ties with western countries, or rather their use of it,  I do not  see anything significant about it in any area that other countries should learn of. 

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@Claymoree Yes, I wrote somewhere that China has "harvested" western technologies. My guess is that China ironically is very conservative with thousands of years of political experience. And to progress requires innovation which China because of its immense historical legacy has had problem with I think. So they have looked at what western countries have invented, and copied it. And now they are building on that foundation. And very efficiently!

And because of China's vast history they know how to cleverly play the game. In terms of political and business manipulation they can run circles around the western powers. So what I believe will happen in the next few years is an amazing technological development in China. Here is one example:

 

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Posted (edited)

Whoa! One expert said that China already has quantum communication between two cities. I believe that Stephen Wolfram is correct that quantum computation might be infeasible in practice. However, quantum communication is something different than quantum computing.

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"Quantum communication is another promising technology which is likely to contribute considerably towards two essential criteria of 6G, namely extremely high data rate and security [15]. The inherent security feature of quantum entanglement that cannot be cloned or accessed without tampering it, makes it a rightful technology for 6G and beyond systems. A number of works already demonstrated initial practical implementation of quantum key distribution (QKD) and associated protocols." - IEEE Magazine

So before capitalism becomes obsolete, it will probably be 5G that becomes obsolete! And that quantum 6G will replace essentially all digital communication technologies. I heard 2030 mentioned for 6G. I think it can be achieved much faster than that, and with quantum communication.

Edit: I looked into quantum communication and it seems that it's only for enhanced security such as secure key transmission. So it's not non-local communication since entangled states are sent through ordinary channels such as fiber optics or radio waves. But still, the 6G perspective is still valid. I read one article mentioning that 5G will actually be insufficient and that 6G will be needed instead.

Edit2: I now discovered one big advantage with quantum communication. It can be used for long range communication with high bandwidth. In 5G the signals are very short ranged and easily blocked by buildings and trees etc.

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"Quantum physics makes nearly everything better, and communications is no exception. Researchers at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST – Gaithersburg, Maryland) are experi­menting with a low-frequency magnetic radio, using very low-frequency (VLF) digitally modulated magnetic signals. Its signals are able to travel through building materials, in water, and underground farther than conventional electromagnetic communications signals that operate at higher frequencies.

... “Classical communications involve a trade-off between bandwidth and sensitivity. We can get both with quantum sensors,” Howe says." - Military Embedded, Feb 20, 2018

 

Edited by Anderz

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@Claymoree

On 12/30/2020 at 10:46 PM, Claymoree said:

Because it probably can't work, you have to assume that stock market is risk free, but it is not, you can lose all, or huge part of your investment that you spent years to accumulate in one go, even if you are financially literate.

Idea is not bad to shake up imbalance on amount of people who hold wealth, but as further we dive into it more problems show up , it is like another idealistic idea , expecting perfection that in practice is very unlikely to give outcome as expected. 

I strongly agree about financially literate society though, less corruption as more people to call it out and more room or improvement. 

 

I do not whatsoever assume the stock market is risk free. Most losses from the stock market are usually made by panic selling, often a result of financial illiteracy. The other cause is speculating which if you speculate to this high degree, you would've likely done the same without a birthright fund.  Anyone with even mild financial literacy knows how easy it is to make a consistent 8% average compounding very safely. With the rise of ETFs, this is made even easier, cheaper and more accessible. The stock market has consistently grown throughout its history so as long as someone invests and holds longterm in blue chip stocks/etfs, they should be more than fine. 

I do not assume this ideal is perfection or provide all answers but it does provide a massive safety net, shortening the wealth gap, a retirement fund, extra dividend income and even more income from a salaried person not having to pay 15% social security tax. Furthermore, the government itself can raise revenues through this proposed system through capital gains and estate taxes. These taxes can fund a UBI of some sort in their own right. Yes it is true, that there are issues that during market downturns, the fund isn't as strong however it nonetheless provides dividends and an emergency fund if you choose to pillage it. It can not solve all social issues but better to have $100-300k as an emergency fund when you're out of a job than to not? 

 

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Heheh. This is going according to my prediction.

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"China’s Huawei Technology Co. Ltd. is reportedly trying to give its smartphone ambitions a boost with plans to announce what would be the world’s first three-nanometer chipset. ... @RODENT950 said Huawei’s new chip should launch sometime in 2021 and will likely appear in the Huawei Mate 50 series smartphones that are expected to be launched during the fourth quarter. ... even if HiSilicon does have a three-nanometer processor in the works, it will probably only ever become a reality if Huawei can find a way to get those sanctions lifted." - SiliconANGLE, Jan 3, 2021

The article guesses that Huawei needs to have Trump's sanctions lifted. I think the 3 nm chip will be manufactured in China! If so, then China is already ahead of the rest of the world in terms of semiconductor technology. Western experts believe China is years behind. I don't think so!

I don't want China's Orwellian systems, but it will be great if China takes the lead in tech development to catalyze a global integration between western capitalism, western governments and China's capitalism and government, and also with other countries in the world contributing to the global integration.

The end of capitalism as the dominating force will also depend on central bank digital currencies, and I predict that the IMF will launch a global digital currency to prevent Chinese world dominance with its new digital currency DCEP (e-yuan).

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A simple example of capitalism vs transcending money mentality is if I for example only would post in this thread for money. Let's say that I earned $1 for each like of my posts. In such situation, if I was dependent on that money for survival I would make sure to make my posts as popular as possible, not in terms of general quality but in terms of how many viewers I would get together with maximizing the likes for my posts.

To me such scenario would be horrible, and that's how I'm starting to see all of capitalism. It has been useful and is still useful, but capitalism is a suboptimal system, especially in the information era. Some may argue that money incentive improves the quality, such as forcing me to make many people like my posts, but it's a narrow and simplistic form of quality based on quantity and popularity, not a general metric of quality.

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Robotics as in androids and robots being able to move in different environments has been clunky, but already now things are starting to change. And consider exponential (accelerating) progress for robotics as well as for AI and with that combination I think we soon will have amazing robots. These robots from Boston Dynamics are more agile than only a few years ago:

 

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I think of socialism as capitalism in drag. Education will remain important for personal and social development. However education for the sake of earning money, that will become obsolete sooner than many people suspect. And in a traditional 20th century society there was education for the purpose of earning money, earning capital as in capital-ist. Ha!

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Someone said that Elon Musk has predicted artificial intelligence (AI) with superhuman intelligence within just 5 years. That sounded way too optimistic to me. But say in 20 years I think definitely machines can outperform humans in most jobs, including politicians! Maybe politics is already run by AI, with fake politicians as fronts, haha.

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Socialism vs capitalism is just a phony conflict to give the appearance of people having any choice. They don't. Politicians are lying through their teeth. In the U.S. for example almost all taxes go to paying the national debt. This means that taxes have virtually no effect or consequence. And politicians make people believe that the government creates most of the money. It doesn't. The vast majority of money is created by commercial banks.

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Socialism tends to be more Spiral Dynamics stage Green than capitalism which is more Orange. So what we will see I think is something more like socialism than capitalism. Evolution will lead up in the developmental spiral, leading to global integration and governments taking real control over money instead of the facade of control we have today.

And even COVID-19, tedious as it is, can be seen as an evolutionary force that has allowed governments to swiftly introduce a precedence for a universal basic income (UBI). I do NOT see a UBI as the solution, but it will be a necessary tool during a transition period which can span several decades. A long time for us individuals but a very short time from a historical perspective.

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On 25/12/2020 at 1:48 AM, Progress said:

On a general note, not related to you specifically but it seems that the Actualized.org community applies idealistic models of personal development such as Maslow's hierarchy and a general push for "green stage" ideals into economics. Now this is all great and all, but it seems few people are actually doing their due diligence on how the economy actually works. Reform is indeed needed in capitalism but I caution against supporting policies that simply seem like "green stage", it doesn't mean it'll work. Any wrong major decision involving the economy can send millions into poverty and stir chaos. That being said, I believe if we are committed to the principals of actualization, the actualized.org community should make stronger strives in understanding economics if we are to impose policies and ideals.

I couldn't agree more. Whilst fully onboard with the ideals of stage green, as somebody who's studied economics and knows finance, some of the stuff I'm reading with regards to policy prescriptions is super cringe.... This is part of the reason why progressives are deemed economically illiterate, because without grounding your higher ideals in real economic analysis, you're opening up yourself to picked apart by simplistic ideas that might not actually work.  A smart and intelligent leftward shift is what is needed.

For example rent control or protectionist policies. They sound good on the surface, but no serious economists support them (even left ones) because they simply don't work and do more harm than good.

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Here is another development in line with my scenario:

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"The IMF paper arrived at its conclusion after a study of the factors that drive demand for a reserve currency. There are four: the economic size and credibility of issuers, transactional demand between parties, and inertia. The U.S. dollar trumps other currencies in all four respects.

However, a succession of financial crises and unchecked Fed money printing may have weakened the dollar's position. Coupled with these developments is the emergence of a new world order with multiple economic centers of gravity. Despite these seismic shifts, composition of the international reserve ecosystem will not change much. "… the high degree of inertia in the currency composition of global reserves suggests that the dollar will remain the dominant reserve currency for the foreseeable future," conclude the IMF paper's authors.

An alternative to this state of affairs is the development of a synthetic CBDC backed by a basket of global CBDCs. The idea has already been proposed earlier by former Bank of England governor Mark Carney. The IMF paper's authors write that such a digital reserve currency could provide efficient cross-border payment services, meaning faster processing, due to the credibility of multiple central banks backing it." - Investopedia, Dec 21, 2020

It's slightly different than how I imagined it. I was thinking that the IMF would issue a global digital currency directly. The scenario described by the IMF paper is similar but based on a basket of global CBDCs. Or is it the same as what I meant? What is a "global CBDC"? Why not call it national CBDCs? Anyway, I think this the direction we are heading.

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Why have politicians been lying about how money functions (or at least presented it in a whitewashed way)? My answer is: because people can't handle the truth! And politicians can't upset the citizens because there hasn't been any alternative to the private banking sector totally dominating money. The exciting news is that with CBDCs (central bank digital currencies) there is an alternative to the capitalist commercial bank model. And we should expect politicians to start changing their positions and become more open about the problems with the current money model now that there is an alternative on the horizon. So politicians are doing the right thing when they are "lying" (by omission).

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Both capitalism and socialism keep humanity trapped in the lower stages of Maslow's hierarchy of needs. Most people have little or no change of rising even up from the bottom levels. Automation allows humanity to work at higher levels while robotics and AI take care of supplying for the lower stages.

maslow-hierarchy.png

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Capitalism is like a combination of cancer and a cardiovascular disease. Cancer in the sense of the belief that it's enough for individual "cells" to act only in their own self-interest and that it will create a well-functioning whole. It will not. And a cardiovascular disease as the wealth distribution inequality where most of the cells struggle to barely get the resources they need (too little blood flow) while a few cells have millions of times more resources (blod clots).

Communism is even worse, with the belief that a tiny politburo can decide for itself how to create a well-functioning whole. Society is way too complex for any centralized system to handle. As I wrote earlier, I exaggerated the claim that capitalism altogether is obsolete, but it is quickly getting obsolete as the dominant power of production. What we will see emerging I guess is a combination of socialism, capitalism and automation, with automation increasingly and at an accelerating pace taking over the production of goods and services.

Edited by Anderz

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My goodness how many times are you going to bump your own thread?


''To be happy we must not be too concerned with others''.

Albert Camus

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