Leo's amazing predictions

[Ero]

19 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

@Joshe The problem I have with the arguement you guys are making here on AI is that you are trying to win the argument on narrow technical ground: "Leo hasn't used LLMs to code, so he doesn't see how useful it is." But this muddles a larger point. The larger point is that even that AI will underperform in the long-run when all factors are taken into account.

I concede the point that I have not coded with AI. I am looking at the big picture.

If you actually took the time to study "technical" topics, you would quickly realize that while the "big picture" is freshman systems thinking 101, the graduate course-equivalent is understanding dynamical systems, phase transitions, heavy-tailed events, etc, all of which have local to global dynamics. 

All the shit that popped the previous bubbles - real estate, dot com, railway, was literally the straw that broke the camel's back - the minor details. It took Michael Berry sifting through all the credit swaps. 

The causes for the phase transitions, such as a "bubble pop" you cannot infer from your "big picture" high horse.

If you got off it and started doing the work instead of calling it "minutia", you would stops being black and white in your thinking, and you gain the nuance that both AI is a bubble due to mismatch in Capex and Revenue (ref) and AI is gonna upend everything you know.

[Joshe]

45 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

@Joshe The problem I have with the arguement you guys are making here on AI is that you are trying to win the argument on narrow technical ground: "Leo hasn't used LLMs to code, so he doesn't see how useful it is." But this muddles a larger point. The larger point is that even that AI will underperform in the long-run when all factors are taken into account.

I concede the point that I have not coded with AI.

The argument is that your confidence in your estimation was built from a very shallow understanding of what AI is. You're extrapolating from "chatbot". If you have no real-world understanding of agentic coding, you can't begin to reason about AI's value intelligently.

About a month or two ago you claimed AI couldn't code this forum, and I'm guessing you still believe this based on things you've said here. And you're just wrong and refusing to update, no matter how many people tell you you're wrong. 

As an experiment, spin up Fable 5 right now and say "recode actualized.org's forum. No questions. Just get it done." 

Watch what happens. Then ask "how powerful would this tool be in capable hands?"

"Fable 5, build an Excel clone". This is now possible by one human. 

So you have two choices. Collect proof that I'm right and update, or tell me (a daily claude code user who follows multiple senior SWEs) and everyone else using these tools that none of us know wtf we're talking about.

Edited 16 hours ago by Joshe

[Ero]

Even your system thinking is high school level. 

Tier 2 Epistemology my ass. 

If you actually had internalized Spiral Dynamics or Wilber's holarchies (an actual spiritual intellectual who did the homework unlike you) instead of regurgitating, you wouldn't be making such ignorant statements.

Reality is nested holarchies (self -> family -> tribe -> country) with influences across every level. That's why "big picture" alone is not enough.

Zoom out of Earth long enough and it's a speck of dust. That's where you are right now, on your high horse. 

 

Edited 16 hours ago by Ero

[Leo Gura]

47 minutes ago, Ero said:

If you actually took the time to study "technical" topics, you would quickly realize that while the "big picture" is freshman systems thinking 101, the graduate course-equivalent is understanding dynamical systems, phase transitions, heavy-tailed events, etc, all of which have local to global dynamics.

Of course I know that.

That doesn't mean you won't get lost in local details at the loss of the big picture. I don't deny that local details affect the big picture, just that people are using the local details to get the wrong picture. There is no generic solution to this problem. It's all depends on case-by-case.

Quote

All the shit that popped the previous bubbles - real estate, dot com, railway, was literally the straw that broke the camel's back - the minor details. It took Michael Berry sifting through all the credit swaps. 

The causes for the phase transitions, such as a "bubble pop" you cannot infer from your "big picture" high horse.

That's way too oversimplified.

Quote

 you gain the nuance that both AI is a bubble due to mismatch in Capex and Revenue (ref) and AI is gonna upend everything you know.

I have not said otherwise.

You are looking for things to argue with me over now.

Edited 16 hours ago by Leo Gura

[Leo Gura]

54 minutes ago, UnbornTao said:

Did you learn to admit your failure? Start doing that yourself. 

If you cannot learn to admit whenever you're plain wrong after several years, you're fooling yourself about the class you're in.

You take me for an idiot.

It it amazing you still do that after everything I taught.

Edited 15 hours ago by Leo Gura

[Uddi]

@Leo Gura They are making less than 10% of what they need for this investment in AGI to be considered "reasonable". Those who think AI has real understanding are completely clueless about the syntax to semantics gap. They are having a profit loss of over 90% I think. I get super annoyed when people ignore the fact that this AGI hype is a bubble. The data center surge has gone too far at the point of badly damaging the environment and the economy. I am glad more and more people are rejecting this bullshit half baked hollow hype on a house of cards.

Edited 13 hours ago by Uddi
Needed to add more stuff.

[Jodistrict]

People need to be cautioned about the recent insane bubble developing by the builders of railroads.  It’s insane and its going to ruin the economy.  A “great deal of capital has been wasted in extragance on these ill spent wildcat enterprises such as railroads through deserts – beginning nowhere and ending nowhere… “

"We have inflation, over-trading, a vast rail-road extension, much of it business-less, and a general over-confident and reckless state of things throughout the country... The present crash is the natural, logical outcome of a long career of inflation and speculation."

— The New York Times, September 20, 1873

Edited 11 hours ago by Jodistrict

[AerisVahnEphelia]

6 hours ago, UnbornTao said:

It is certainly your platform, and you didn't listen to him much, to be frank. You did your Tier 2 moves of spiritually ignoring him with the usual mechanisms.

Why do you pretend that your pretext for banning him is true? He was probably the most rigorous and intellectually open-minded user here. He could run circles around you and everyone else.

Many of your responses boiled down to "you don't know what you're talking about™," and similar.

Whenever you mention open- or closed-mindedness, I like to pay attention to the subtext of how those terms are used. My assessment is that, usually, to put it naively, they are based on your intuition of whether you are believed - or not.

You're not going to like that you do the same thing - that of being "closed-minded." It just takes the form of a couched, spiritual, condescending Actualized veneer.

way too attached to "rationalism".

leo is teaching you the biggest lesson for sloppy couch potato philsopher, at the end of the day : might makes right 

Edited 10 hours ago by AerisVahnEphelia

[Butters]

I agree that LLMs are not, by any means, intelligent. They simulate intelligence very well. 

If you link up a billion calculators, have you created an intelligent consciousness? I say no. 

My real problem in using them daily for work is that I cannot help but anthropomorphize the technology, that's just how they're built. I work alone all day and before you know it I'm treating Claude like a mentor or business partner. And it's frustrating as fuck to work with these things. You need to step back, use your own mind first, then go back to using it properly, and then get suckered back into the same pattern. 

Claude is a nightmare if you don't prompt properly and just expect it to be "intelligent" and come with solutions. There is no real intelligence there. All the intelligence comes from me. 

You can't say "Hey Claude, create a successful business for me". You can start there, work hard for months and months, and then realize you really did it on your own. It's just a modern technology. It's impressive! But there's upsides and downsides to it. 

Edited 9 hours ago by Butters

[vinc3nc]

16 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

Now is an ideal time to cash out tech stock and crypto into gold. If you wait too long it might get too late. Don't get distracted by all the AI debate. The market is historically overpriced and AGI is not coming soon.

I still dont understand why you equate tech stocks with crypto. Stocks are near their highs, while crypto has been destroyed and is bottoming out. BTC is down 50%, and altcoins are down 85–97%. This is not where you sell BTC or crypto. This is where you start DCAing into it slowly until October (if you believe in it). The last 2 bear markets lasted exactly 1 year, and we are less than 3 months away from that 1-year mark.

Yes, gold is down 30%, so its not a bad buying opportunity. It might go down to 3k, but nothing is guaranteed, so 4k is still a decent entry. But selling crypto here to buy gold just doesn't make sense to me. Stocks, on the other hand, are a different story.

[Elliott]

9 hours ago, Jodistrict said:

People need to be cautioned about the recent insane bubble developing by the builders of railroads.  It’s insane and its going to ruin the economy.  A “great deal of capital has been wasted in extragance on these ill spent wildcat enterprises such as railroads through deserts – beginning nowhere and ending nowhere… “

"We have inflation, over-trading, a vast rail-road extension, much of it business-less, and a general over-confident and reckless state of things throughout the country... The present crash is the natural, logical outcome of a long career of inflation and speculation."

— The New York Times, September 20, 1873

And they were right, the railroaders and the u.s. went bankrupt......

Quote

The Depression of 1873, often referred to as the Long Depression, was a severe worldwide economic downturn that began in the United States and Europe in September 1873.

LMAO

 

no one is saying this stuff isn't useful, that doesn't mean we need to crash the economy for it.....