The AI crash is impossible - Change my View

[Marten98]

11 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

Almost zero.

@Leo Gura didn‘t you say a couple weeks ago that your strategy was to stack gold, since this is a foolproof way of investing, especially when stocks are down? And that gold is fairly cheap right now.

Are you keeping your money in cash or doing safe investments with lower interests?

I got a lot of money from selling my company right now and I want to consider different perspectives regarding the market right now.

[something_else]

18 hours ago, vinc3nc said:

@something_else I first invested in BTC in August 2017 at 4K. By the end of December (early January), I had 4x’d my portfolio in unrealized gains. That was probably the craziest bull market ever. Eventually, I lost 90% of it by not selling anything, partly because of inexperience and because it was my first crypto cycle.

In the second cycle (2018–2021), I barely invested any new money, thinking my altcoins would recover and that I’d make all the money back. Some of them did recover, but most didnt, so I failed my second crypto cycle as well. That was also when I got into spirituality, so I had less motivation to make money and pursue all this material stuff.

In 2022, I was like, “Enough is enough. If I don’t make it in this next cycle, I won’t be able to forgive myself.” So I locked in, got a job, and worked for two years, investing 80% of my salary every month into BTC and Solana at the lows. This time, I didn’t fuck it up. I made tons of profit, largely thanks to Solana going from 8usd to almost 300usd, and now Im well positioned for the next cycle. Let’s just say Im almost retired because of it.

The reason I had so much conviction is that I was staring at the screens all the time, studying the charts, listening to tons of people talk about investing and crypto, and being on X every single day, following the right people. Once you’ve done all that, there’s no doubt in your mind that BTC will always recover in the next cycle, no matter how hopeless it looks. But yeah, it takes a lot of effort and time to figure out which altcoins to invest in, because if you don’t, you'll get screwed. Every consecutive cycle gets harder and harder to make it (BTC ain't 4k anymore haha).

I'm going to be honest, this still just sounds like gambling psychology to me. Especially this part:

Quote

Once you’ve done all that, there’s no doubt in your mind that BTC will always recover in the next cycle, no matter how hopeless it looks

You never know when the cycle will be, what the highs will be or what the lows will be. None of these things are very predictable, which makes it much more akin to gambling than investing.

It's very analogous to the "just one more roll" mindset that you see from a gambler.

Also this confuses me:

Quote

I first invested in BTC in August 2017 at 4K. By the end of December (early January), I had 4x’d my portfolio in unrealized gains. That was probably the craziest bull market ever. Eventually, I lost 90% of it by not selling anything, partly because of inexperience and because it was my first crypto cycle.

You got in very early, if you'd sold nothing that bitcoin would be worth a fortune now, right? How did you lose 90% by not selling?

[vinc3nc]

 

@something_else So any investment that’s not super safe and predictable is in your opinion gambling? BTC is very volatile compared to other things, especially when it was a smaller asset. But if you study previous cycles and drawdowns, you can pretty much “know” what to expect in the next one. If there were suddenly some kind of fundamental issue with BTC, then I wouldn’t hesitate to reconsider things. But with BTC, nothing has ever fundamentally changed. Just because the price drops a lot doesn’t mean something is now broken.

The reason I lost 90% was because I had bought altcoins with the BTC I had. They went up way more than BTC, but they also crashed WAY more when BTC dropped to 3K in 2018. With alts, you’re definitely gambling. I wouldn’t say the same for BTC imo. It’s riskier not to own any.

To you, buying things after they’ve dropped 60%, 70%, 80%, or more might seem like gambling, but to me that has always been the best opportunity to make money. Maybe it’s because you don’t believe in BTC, or maybe you’re not aware of how much money is being printed all the fucking time.

What one calls gambling, another calls conviction. I still stand by this.

Edited 1 hour ago by vinc3nc