Breaking News: Major Combat Operations in Iran 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 🇮🇷

[Raze]

Iran released its demands for opening the strait 

Edited August 8 by Raze

[zazen]

A country with little leverage doesn’t issue demands and conditions lol

Iran can be weakened massively (conventional army+proxies+proxies degraded) while still having enough asymmetric leverage to deny capitulation (from Hormuz disruption, missiles, nuclear question unsettled)

US tried changing facts on the ground during the MOU phase by creating a bypass route near Oman - and Iran whacked them to re-assert control

US is failing to wrestle Hormuz out of Irans grip hence tried to dilute its leverage which flopped

Irans pain threshold and resilience is high, so how long can oil market prices be manipulated / buffered as reserves drain and pump prices increase

US has to intervene in propping up Japans currency which would have a cascading affect on the financial system (Japan carry trade). Pain is starting to show up in the system.

[Elliott]

Spain is investing in mining in Iran, LMAO. Once Russia capitulates in Ukraine, Europe is going to slaughter Drumpf, all they have to do is sell our treasuries they hold, they will twist his arm off and blackrock will hang him from a streetlight.

 

Business Insider

https://www.businessinsider.com

Rising bond yields have stocks 'on the brink' of a 20% drop, strategist warns

2 days ago — Yields on the 10-year Treasury have shot above 4.7% this week, while 30-year yields have risen above 5.2%. Rising long-term bond yields could ..

 

 

Project Syndicate

https://www.project-syndicate.org

Why US Bond Markets Are Trembling by Jim O'Neill

3 days ago — Market crash is imminent as the cost of the current war with Iran and its ramifications will drag and drain American economy and ..

 

 

We're fucked even if Iran rolls over tonight. Consolation is probably an unprecedented midterm and 2028 for democrats.

Buy european energy and defense stocks, brazilian industries, and hold onto your hat, the dollar is on the brink of hyperinflation. Iran may actually destroy the U.S. at home. The (R)etards have really outdone themselves this time, every fucking (R)etard presidency the country is left in ruins, every single one.

 

 

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Zambian Observer

zambianobserver.com › home › politics

SPAIN REPORTEDLY APPROVES INVESTMENT IN IRAN DESPITE U.S. PRESSURE - The Zambian Observer

2 days ago - SPAIN REPORTEDLY APPROVES INVESTMENT IN IRAN DESPITE U.S. PRESSUREIran says Spain, under Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, has approved a new investment project in the

Edited 2 hours ago by Elliott

[Elliott]

NATO member offers defense pact with Iran and Saudi Arabia

 

https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-906316

Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan invited Iran to join newly-established Mecca defense pact - 

 

Trump has made Iran a first world nation, and the u.s. a second world one.

 

Edited 2 hours ago by Elliott

[Raze]

Things actually aren’t looking so good for Iran anymore.

China is massively screwing them over by not increasing oil imports after decreasing them.

Its unclear how much but the US and Qatar have been able to get some oil through the strait.

The gulf is refusing their demands of cutting off the US.

This means the US has more time before the oil crisis starts to cause damage which means Iran has to hold out in the blockade for longer.

The issue is once midterms are over their leverage has declined since now they have to wait 2 more years until the next election to try and exert political pressure on the US. 

They screwed up not striking the pipes and not mining the Omani route.

Also probably should have extracted more humanitarian aid from the gulf when agreeing to the MOU.

Edited 2 hours ago by Raze

[Elliott]

43 minutes ago, Raze said:

Things actually aren’t looking so good for Iran anymore.

China is massively screwing them over by not increasing oil imports after decreasing them.

Its unclear how much but the US and Qatar have been able to get some oil through the strait.

The gulf is refusing their demands of cutting off the US.

This means the US has more time before the oil crisis starts to cause damage which means Iran has to hold out in the blockade for longer.

The issue is once midterms are over their leverage has declined since now they have to wait 2 more years until the next election to try and exert political pressure on the US.

They screwed up not striking the pipes and not mining the Omani route.

Also probably should have extracted more humanitarian aid from the gulf when agreeing to the MOU.

It's very dispraportionate "hurting" though. 60% of global oil exports normally flow through hormuz, that's down from 140 ships a day to 10

 

 

Mehr News Agency

https://en.mehrnews.com

Fewer than 20 ships transited Strait of Hormuz over weekend

13 hours ago — Thirteen vessels crossed the strait on Saturday and just four on Sunday, the data shows

 

 

It's definitely Chicken, Iran taking a toll, but the u.s. is on the brink of collapse while there's not even rioting in Iran yet, to the contrary Iranians are protesting the u.s. in the streets.

 

Oil prices have been suppressed by reserves which are just now completely depleting,  Trump is on the edge right now, oil will go through the roof in one HUUGE jump if hormuz doesn't open immediately.

 

 

 

The COW News

https://www.thecownews.com

Iran Adopts Rail Route For Oil Exports To China

Aug 16, 2026 — Under the new logistics strategy, Iran is utilizing a 10,400-kilometer railway corridor to transport oil directly to various Chinese cities

 

 

The thing about this for Iran though is that it may be its only opportunity for a generation. The u.s. will overthrow Iran if they don't emerge from seclusion. U.S. oil is getting too expensive to extract, we're(globe) going to need their oil.

 

 

 

Scientific American

https://www.scientificamerican.com

Gas prices are spiking. So why aren't U.S. oil companies drilling more?

May 6, 2026 — Much of the country's shale production has been tapped, leaving less productive and less economic deposits. The totality of U.S. production is about 13.6 million barrels of oil per day, compared with the 20 million barrels per day that are trapped by the Iran war.

 

 

And hormuz isn't just oil, 35% of global fertilizer is from there

 

 

 

Edited 1 hour ago by Elliott

[Karmadhi]

Guys I have not been following this conflcit for weeks

Can sometime give me a TL DR what is going on and what are peace chances?

 

[zazen]

It’s a siege stand off right now. US is out of “good” military options that wouldn’t cause Iran to escalate on Gulf partners in the region leading to utter chaos. Hence the pivot to economic blockade.

Market price of oil has been suppressed by headline/optics (deal coming soon lol), reserves being released, China buying a lot less etc but see the price at the pump (diesel) hence crack spreads are high - pain is showing up in other places in the system.

Empires being networked and systemic means things can cascade and have effects downstream. We’re seeing fiscal intervention (affecting bonds), yen intervention to uphold the system etc

US may get smaller nations to buckle on secondary sanctions choking off Iran but if Russia/China don’t then Iran still has time / breathing room

Saying that agree w @Raze Hormuz is their main card and if US is sneaking out enough tankers it’s diluting their power and giving US confidence they can ride this out longer