Leo, what are your thoughts on "Orbanization" in the US?

[Hardkill]

While it is unrealistic for America to fall under an authoritarian regime like Russia or China in the foreseeable future, some experts have warned about the risk of “Orbanization” in the U.S. — meaning the country could increasingly resemble Hungary.

Path-dependence of norms: Once a party learns that norm-breaking (press intimidation, selective non-compliance, threats to civil servants) pays and isn’t punished, it becomes the new baseline. Norm erosion is a ratchet.

State-level power as a workaround: Even if federal capture is hard, state governments can alter election rules, districts, and media/public-records environments—creating pockets of tilted competition that add up nationally.

Legal shifts that change incentives: Court decisions that insulate executive actions or weaken agency capacity can lower the cost of overreach, making Hungary-style tactics (pressure on regulators/independents) more tempting.

Media economics, not censors: You don’t need a ministry of information if local news collapses, ad markets consolidate, and a few platform or carrier decisions can starve disfavored outlets. That can mimic capture’s effects.

Intimidation at the nodes: Threats against election workers, prosecutors, and journalists can produce self-censorship and capacity loss even without formal control—an American analogue to “soft” authoritarian tools.

Polarization + minority entrenchment: With gerrymanders, malapportionment, and partisan administration, a coalition can keep governing with minority support, making “win at all costs” strategies rational.

Crisis opportunism: Wars, pandemics, or riots can be used to centralize discretion and marginalize oversight (emergency powers tend to outlive emergencies).

However, after learning about how things work in Hungary or in other Eastern European countries like Ukraine, I now don't think that America will even go through a democratic backsliding to the degree that it will be like even Hungary or Ukraine.

America’s mix of federalism, independent courts and agencies, decentralized media funding, much more entrenched protest culture and democratic traditions, overlapping watchdogs, and frequent competitive elections makes a single-party capture or wholesale media takeover far harder here than in Hungary or even in a country like Ukraine.

What seems plausible in my mind is that there will be more uneven, state-by-state illiberalism, deeper chilling effects, and a gradually tilted national playing field if multiple stressors coincide (economic downturn + court shifts + state-level rule changes + intimidation).

thoughts?

Edited Sunday at 08:39 PM by Hardkill

[Leo Gura]

What is there to say? It's already happening. How far it will go is hard to predict.

Vlad Vexler thinks that the 2030s in America will be more fascist than today. He thinks Trump is just the warm-up act.

That's a terrifying notion but he might be right. He could also be wrong.

[oldhandle]

I am at the Budapest airport right now and for a weekend visit, Budapest feels like anywhere else in Europe, super nice honestly. Only odd thing to report is on 3 separate occasions like 30 police cars sped by with sirens blaring, many of the cars unmarked.

[Hardkill]

9 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

What is there to say? It's already happening. How far it will go is hard to predict.

Vlad Vexler thinks that the 2030s in America will be more fascist than today. He thinks Trump is just the warm-up act.

That's a terrifying notion but he might be right. He could also be wrong.

Yeah, I mean I am still very worried about what may happen with the country in the future. 

However, the more I think about it and the more I learn about different countries outside of the US, the more I realize how different a country like Hungary or Ukraine is in terms of history, geography, system, culture, and traditions.

Doesn't the USA still have a higher level of development and culture overall than Hungary or Ukraine do? 

Hungary doesn't have the decentralized democratic media environment that the U.S. does, doesn't have deep, successful protest traditions that repeatedly reset the political game the way the U.S. does, doesn't have the cultural diversity that the U.S. does, and its elections aren't nearly as decentralized as elections in the U.S. are; moreover, its elections do not have the same level of oversight, the same degree of voting protections, or the same independence and “teeth” of the courts and legal remedies that the U.S. system has.

The U.S. has also always had better stability, anti-corruption systems, and journalist safety/protections than even Ukraine, which, of course, is still a strong ally of Western nations and clearly believes in EU-style democratic standards.

Moreover, I now don't think that Trump and his party have the time or the means to install enough loyalists in the military, law enforcement, and other parts of the government who would allow him to do a true systemic capture of the military, law enforcement, the machinery of elections, other government agencies, or other institutions.

Additionally, Trump has never had net positive approval ratings and popularity ratings amongst the general electorate in America, whereas Orban has had net-positive approval ratings and popularity ratings at various points during his time as PM of his country.

Edited 20 hours ago by Hardkill

[Daniel Balan]

@Hardkill Orbanization is the biggest threat that liberal democracies will face. Orbanization is much, much more accurate than calling MAGA fascist. Fascism will never happen in the west the same as it did in the 20th century, those who propagate this idea are people desperate for clicks.

However, Orbanization is extremely dangerous and oftentimes much more damaging than fascism because fascism is way to brutal to be tolerated in the 21th century. Orbanization means the normalisation of unchecked corruption and theft. Theft without police. That is what Orbanization means. Even in Hungary Orban can't really do what he wants because the Magyars are pretty educated, but even so, Orban managed to corrupt the entire governance apparatus from top to bottom with loyalists, the press in Hungary is basically similar to the Press in Russia, although to a lesser degree. In Russia if you criticise Putin you accidentally fall from a window, In Orban's Hungary, if you criticise the regime, the entire press that is subservient to Orban will accuse you of pedophilia, will find that you own obscene amounts of wealth while the average citizen has nowhere near the wealth that Orban's press found out that you "have" etc. Basically they will shoot the messenger until no one will believe that messenger. Hungary is not a bad place to live, but corruption is unchecked and the only way to have a successful business there is to be in bed with Orban's party. Basically Orban gave all the wealthy people in Hungary freedom to steal and exploit off of the plebs without any shame. 

All right wing populist movements have in common the mantra that the corruption is not the bug, it is actually the feature. The people who vote for those parties don't want less corruption, they want more, they want to be allowed more to be corrupt themselves, they want to be allowed to pay less taxes, to do more fiscal evasion, to exploit more shamelessly the workers etc. 

For Orban corruption is not a bug, it is a feature that must be amplified.

Edited 18 hours ago by Daniel Balan

[Hardkill]

9 minutes ago, Daniel Balan said:

@Hardkill Orbanization is the biggest threat that liberal democracies will face. Orbanization is much, much more accurate than calling MAGA fascist. Fascism will never happen in the west the same as it did in the 20th century, those who propagate this idea are people desperate for clicks.

However, Orbanization is extremely dangerous and oftentimes much more damaging than fascism because fascism is way to brutal to be tolerated in the 21th century. Orbanization means the normalisation of unchecked corruption and theft. Theft without police. That is what Orbanization means. Even in Hungary Orban can't really do what he wants because the Magyars are pretty educated, but even so, Orban managed to corrupt the entire governance apparatus from top to bottom with loyalists, the press in Hungary is basically similar to the Press in Russia, although to a lesser degree. In Russia if you criticise Putin you accidentally fall from a window, In Orban's Hungary, if you criticise the regime, the entire press that is subservient to Orban will accuse you of pedophilia, will find that you own obscene amounts of wealth while the average citizen has nowhere near the wealth that Orban's press found out that you "have" etc. Basically they will shoot the messenger until no one will believe that messenger. Hungary is not a bad place to live, but corruption is unchecked and the only way to have a successful business there is to be in bed with Orban's party. Basically Orban gave all the wealthy people in Hungary freedom to steal and exploit off of the plebs without any shame. 

All right wing populist movements have in common the mantra that the corruption is not the bug, it is actually the feature. The people who vote for those parties don't want less corruption, they want more, they want to be allowed more to be corrupt themselves, they want to be allowed to pay less taxes, to do more fiscal evasion, to exploit more shamelessly the workers etc. 

For Orban corruption is not a bug, it is a feature that must be amplified.

Yeah, but actually in the US, no leader or party in power can own more than about 39% of the entire media environment unlike in Hungary because of how much more fragmented and diverse the media environment is in a country like the US than in a country like Hungary. Furthermore, the US has legal and structural guardrails that Hungary doesn't have including:

1. No single branch can dictate content. The First Amendment, the Administrative Procedure Act, and federal procurement and antitrust laws all block the executive branch from directly coercing media or corporations.

2. Independent agencies and courts intervene. The FCC, FTC, DOJ, and federal courts have all stepped in against overt political interference before — and would again if a line were crossed.

3. Private ownership diversity. U.S. media, entertainment, and legal industries are massive and decentralized. No administration can capture all studios, platforms, or firms simultaneously.

 

We have to also considered the Political and market backlash that comes with an authoritarian leader in a county like America trying to cancel shows, movies, and news outlets just because our president and the Republicans didn't like what they heard:

1. Jimmy Kimmel, heavy-handed moves generate huge public, corporate, and advertiser backlash.

2. U.S. firms are highly brand-sensitive: if they’re seen as bowing to censorship, they lose younger audiences, international markets, and talent.

3. Shareholders, unions, and advocacy groups (WGA, SAG-AFTRA, ACLU, etc.) quickly mobilize when freedom-of-expression issues surface.

 

There's more Institutional pluralism in the US than even in a country like Hungary:

1. There isn’t one centralized “elite” to capture. Power is distributed among states, regulators, courts, press outlets, streaming platforms, independent production houses, and NGOs.

2. Even if one network or company caves, others often go the opposite direction — competition itself protects pluralism.

 

I now see that the real risk is incremental chilling, not total control:

1. I think that experts worry about self-censorship and “soft compliance” when threats become routine — not about full autocratic capture like Hungary or Russia.

2. The danger is cumulative erosion (companies avoiding controversy), but every attempt at direct suppression tends to spark loud resistance that reinforces democratic norms.

[zazen]

8 min of mic drops

 

[Infinity16]

7 hours ago, Hardkill said:

Yeah, I mean I am still very worried about what may happen with the country in the future. 

However, the more I think about it and the more I learn about different countries outside of the US, the more I realize how different a country like Hungary or Ukraine is in terms of history, geography, system, culture, and traditions.

Doesn't the USA still have a higher level of development and culture overall than Hungary or Ukraine do? 

Hungary doesn't have the decentralized democratic media environment that the U.S. does, doesn't have deep, successful protest traditions that repeatedly reset the political game the way the U.S. does, doesn't have the cultural diversity that the U.S. does, and its elections aren't nearly as decentralized as elections in the U.S. are; moreover, its elections do not have the same level of oversight, the same degree of voting protections, or the same independence and “teeth” of the courts and legal remedies that the U.S. system has.

The U.S. has also always had better stability, anti-corruption systems, and journalist safety/protections than even Ukraine, which, of course, is still a strong ally of Western nations and clearly believes in EU-style democratic standards.

Moreover, I now don't think that Trump and his party have the time or the means to install enough loyalists in the military, law enforcement, and other parts of the government who would allow him to do a true systemic capture of the military, law enforcement, the machinery of elections, other government agencies, or other institutions.

Additionally, Trump has never had net positive approval ratings and popularity ratings amongst the general electorate in America, whereas Orban has had net-positive approval ratings and popularity ratings at various points during his time as PM of his country.

That's what I'm thinking. The US is primarily a stage orange culture with a significant stage blue minority. People in stage blue tend to be ok with democracy so long as they get what they want out of it. Stage blue tends to be found in evangelicals and other conservative Christians. The stage blue Americans will stand by Trump, but those in orange and green will resist.

Alternatively, most stage orange Americans might not care enough to resist authoritarianism.

[kray]

4 hours ago, Infinity16 said:

That's what I'm thinking. The US is primarily a stage orange culture with a significant stage blue minority. People in stage blue tend to be ok with democracy so long as they get what they want out of it. Stage blue tends to be found in evangelicals and other conservative Christians. The stage blue Americans will stand by Trump, but those in orange and green will resist.

Alternatively, most stage orange Americans might not care enough to resist authoritarianism.

Unfortunately, most stage orange an Americans translates to most Americans lol. If it don’t affect me, I’m going to go on with my life and business kind of mentality.