Latest Ukraine/Russia Thread

[Bjorn K Holmstrom]

51 minutes ago, BlueOak said:

America, China, Russia are all expansionist ... conflicts are all but inevitable
 

That's exactly what the simulation revealed. Even when I designed a settlement where the US gained economically, the simulated NSC still rejected it because China also gained. The system forces everyone into zero-sum thinking regardless of whether they'd personally prefer cooperation.

Your point about countries "caught behind the lines" being in trouble, that matches what the quantitative analysis showed. The system runs on extraction until exhaustion, and whoever's in the wrong place when it crashes pays the price.

Grim, but structurally consistent.

[zazen]

On 12/30/2025 at 3:36 PM, Breakingthewall said:

A puppet, or perhaps a strategic ally, of the world's leading power. China won't let Russia fall because that would weaken its own position.

True - they are complimentary, though asymmetrically with China having a upper hand due to its sheer size. Russia solves some of China's vulnerabilities by being a single resource rich state that isn't hostile. Beyond just energy it also has metals etc it provides. Just geographically it's quite indispensable to China because it firstly provides strategic depth from being encircled from its Western flank, whilst having one of the longest borders in the world be secure due to good relations with its neighbor.

Russia also helps with nuclear know how and military (submarines, engines, early warning defense systems etc) and also operational warfare because it has more experience. That's why they also do many drills together. Russia is a test case proof of systems concept that countries can trade outside the Western system which is weaponized politically - leading the way for other Global South countries to follow suit (majority of the world against a colonial legacy built world order by a Western led 12-15% of the worlds population).

The Arctic is going to be more important over the years also. It has plenty of resources and can cut trade routes by approx 30-40%. Russia gives China a land route option that avoids any type of naval blockade antics by the US. That's why Belt and Road, Silk Road, Arctic pass are invested in - taking away the US's ability to interdict and blockade China on which it is heavily dependent to feed and energize itself.

With Russia having the largest ice breaker fleet and China's capital, tech and infrastructure expertise they can maximize the arctic exploration.This is also why the Trump admin are eyeing Greenland for ''National Security''. They can base up with proximity to Moscow and Russia's core from there.

Speaking of vassalage - Ukraine is literally already there today by being completely reliant on external support from the West who themselves have local democratic politics and fiscal constraints to deal with. US has already minimized funding to pantry amounts (Congress approved, not just Trump), and left the bag with EU to deal with who are scrambling for funds. That's why they need to flirt with using Russian assets which would spectacularly back fire on their own financial systems and investability long term. Ukraine requires 10's to 100's of billions to stay afloat as a rump state with no revenue engine to pay that back unlike Japan and Germany post war. The industry is destroyed or to the East, and grain export isn't enough to cover the bill.

Collapse narratives conflate stress with collapse. Too much catastrophizing. Westerners project their liberal democracy political lens onto a authoritarian centralized state who have levers to pull on and overcome obstacles that democracies would struggle with as people revolt for their freedoms over not ''voting for it''. They also don't seem to have a pulse on things when it comes to the Russian mindset and sentiment. Many Russian's feel to be under seige by a West that demonizes them with their Russiophobia which only galvanizes them even more. In fact Putin is keeping hardliners at bay who would act much more emotionally ie Medvedev and the like.

Most likely no deal is happening - all this 90% agreed upon points mean shit when the 10% are the non-negotiable. After this drone attack on Putin (whether false flag or not) - that seals the fact that things will be decided on the battlefield. Turbulent year ahead it seems.

[BlueOak]

After Putin vows that no deal will happen.
Three waves of drones hit across Russia. Blacking out moscow for several hours.

The density of this air campaign even surprised me. But that's where the money is going, into drones. Which are to knock out refineries, factories, power plants, depots, substations, etc. 

With this level of hits, if the Kremlin really does start targeting the Ukranian government en masse, they are going to lose most of their own Duma unless they put them all in bunkers.

Zelensky said there would be daily drone waves, and I doubted him, but they've been coming in steady, with the occasional flare-up like this. I guess sending 500 to 2,000 dollar drones into Russia is cost-effective after all, when a hundred drones probably equals the cost of a missile.

@zazen

Its highly unlikely any deal will be made. Putin has a fixed position and bad information about the war, the Russians and their supporters believe their own propaganda and I increasingly get the impression he does also.

Or they've just accepted 2 million casualties and another 2 years to take the regions they've tried to annex (along with 20 years of civil unrest and paramilitary actions in those regions)

That will be a possible end state to the war. Russias economy is already toast, like Ukraine's and both will need life support. But Russia won't stop so they'll have to pay that price, if they can hold it together under increasing pressure internally and externally. They were just repelled quite badly on the frontlines, so I might be overestimating the pace they can pull this off, as things get closer to a stalemate. I also have severe doubts Russia will be able to continue for 2 more years, especially if we move into a global conflict with BRICS and more countries directly get involved.

[BlueOak]

As people always tell me manpower wins wars.

This year moreso than ever these are going to be used, and they are only getting improved.

People still say when will robots start fighting on the front line? Well, it is now. There was a part here where a land drone was hit by a Russian air drone, i've not seen that before. Compared to the rest of the world (except Ukraine) Russia's military is impressive but not because of tanks or manpower, because they are the second best drone force on the planet, second only to Ukraine.

At this point there are entire sections of the front, held by these drones, because it's not easy to take them out with infantry, and tanks are just large slow drone targets, all that hits them well is other drones, or jets but they are expensive comparatively, and artillery is often too risky to reveal - because of air drones.
 

[Ajay0]

On 1/1/2026 at 8:20 PM, BlueOak said:

I also have severe doubts Russia will be able to continue for 2 more years, especially if we move into a global conflict with BRICS and more countries directly get involved.

If BRICS get involved, I would say the ukraine war will be over in a second.

Both India and China have the two largest armies on earth, and is ranked third and fourth respective in air power. Either one have nearly inexhaustible manpower resources which can enable the creation of any number of million-strong armies that  can overrun any battle field on earth. 

China especially has officially  stated that Russian defeat in the ukraine war is not an option for neighboring chinese strategic interests, considering its own feud with Nato,  and hence it will keep on supporting Russia to the very end till a russian victory is gained.

This does not include the rest of the brics nations and global south that are supporting Russia officially or clandestinely.

Europe , with an ageing and shrinking population, and a weakening economy due to lack of cheap russian energy, should see the writing on the wall, and get into diplomatic talks with russia.

[BlueOak]

1 hour ago, Ajay0 said:

If BRICS get involved, I would say the ukraine war will be over in a second.

Both India and China have the two largest armies on earth, and is ranked third and fourth respective in air power. Either one have nearly inexhaustible manpower resources which can enable the creation of any number of million-strong armies that  can overrun any battle field on earth. 

China especially has officially  stated that Russian defeat in the ukraine war is not an option for neighboring chinese strategic interests, considering its own feud with Nato,  and hence it will keep on supporting Russia to the very end till a russian victory is gained.

This does not include the rest of the brics nations and global south that are supporting Russia officially or clandestinely.

Europe , with an ageing and shrinking population, and a weakening economy due to lack of cheap russian energy, should see the writing on the wall, and get into diplomatic talks with russia.

Never happening. Russia don't do peace. Ukraine already offered territory, again and again. They just push until they are stopped. Been that way for centuries, and they are trying the same old again because they have the backing of BRICS.

Again, though, manpower means little when tactical nukes are involved. Tactical nukes can take out hundreds of thousands, even a low yield one. Not the big world ending nukes, the smaller battlefield ones. 

If BRICS get further involved, they already are materially and with some manpower, then other countries would get further involved also.

Drones are king now. Manpower helps with that, but industrial capacity (and technology) helps more.

The more I understand how warfare is now being fought: Russia are far more geared for war than China is, China has invested billions in technologies that don't matter. America is planning billion dollar battleships that can be brought down with a few hundred drones, they still think expensive = good, no it's just expensive. India, China and America are honestly behind where the current arms race is, their minds are not even in the right place. Not to say it will always be that way, there may be effective anti drone countermeasures eventually, but I tend to think not with the current pattern, they are just so cheap compared to everything else, and most of them can fly independent of any control or signal once on target.

Euorpe has worked closely with Ukraine, very closely. I am sure China are not sitting idle either but I don't see it in the forces they keep showing off. All Taiwan needs is several thousand cheap drones and all those landing craft they parade around will be at the bottom of the ocean.

Analysis of the pattern says Russia will not collapse, but there is a fair likelihood of severe economic issues (they are already set), and if unstopped the war grinding on to a stalemate of 2 million Russia casualties in 2 more years.

When I had this discussion with my objective GPT, to keep my own bias neutralised. It said to post to your statement that manpower wins wars:
How does your theory handle logistics, training time, equipment losses, precision attrition, and political endurance—without defaulting to unlimited escalation? 

Because that's what we are facing right now. India China and Russia throwing millions of people into tactical nukes and drones. There would not be a winner. So if China, India and Russia want to keep escalating and demanding, that's where we will end up.

Edited Monday at 11:57 AM by BlueOak

[NewKidOnTheBlock]

Some people don't seem to realize that BRICS is not really a military aliance but simply an economic pact between countries that refuse to resign themselves as slaves to the USD. Yeah they seemingly are conducting regular military exercises but it's not like they are alies or something. The world nowadays is much more fragmented than it used to be during the 20th century; in fact, even dependability of NATO or EU is not certain nowadays

[zazen]

@BlueOak  Yeah most likely if no political resolution comes it looks like it will be a frozen conflict eventually. The thing about drones is true - but I don't know how much they obsolete manpower. If drones were enough we wouldn't have seen Russia makes the territorial gains they made in 2025, which before that had been barely anything for a good two years. I think drones make it very costly to push the front line and slow down the tempo, but don't erase it completely.

Russia also came back to match Ukraine with its own improvement in drones so it seems like the side that can keep feeding into the grinder is wins ground - drones can't hold territory only manpower still can, though under the cover and with the help of drones and at greater cost and caution from incoming drones from the other side.

It usually takes a average 3;1 ratio to offensively take ground, which is why Russia suffered more in taking what they did. If drones were enough of a game changer we'd surely have seen Ukraine be able to push back and re-take ground from the Russian's but that still requires manpower which is why they didn't. And now that initial advantage of a gap with drones has shrunk as Russia's caught up with their own.

Soldiers still matter but drones heavily tax the movement of those soldiers and increase the cost of attrition. They increase the attrition - but the end is still that the side with more meat to grind endures and makes ground or fortifies any taken positions. This is also why Putin or Russia trying it with any other EU country (which legit has article 5) let alone attempt to take all of Ukraine is so over blown.

At best, they may push to the river which is logistically a nightmare to cross, and consider that a natural border to draw the line. Perhaps attempt Odessa to further secure black sea, but even that would be very costly.

[BlueOak]

@zazen

Most of that I agree with yes. But Russia gains were better earlier, these days they are at a snail's pace comparatively. What they have done is gone around the problems rather than into them in the south, not even in the cities they claim to have taken but in other areas. Its a bit insane how the propaganda works because if they actually told people what they taken, and didn't focus on city names in constant lies because it sounds 'good' it'd be a different conversation. I guess KM's taken doesn't translate to excitement or something people can remember.

Infantry pushes over large territories are still favorable. At a high cost but favorable.  Ukraine's a wide territory, I know next to Russia it looks small but its not a small battlefield, it's very open, not much cover, and slow, and bitter in winter, you can send a drone in, (soon drone squads I mean they operate often in clusters) but unless there are literally a thousand of them they'd just be flanked.

However drones hold territory very well. Fast, covering a lot of ground. No fear. No chance of retreat. No cost to train, only to maintain and a cheap cost to build in the first place. The operators are usually safe from counter so their training remains consistent and only improves. Cheap aerial drones hold territory exceptionally well, but they are not going to push up into buildings all too well; they only clear the way.

I mean 20 of those machine gun or Anti tank drones with some AA cover would hold a line or ruined village well enough on the land also, but like I say they are getting better over time; this is still early days for drone war. There will be mine and cluster bomb drones soon enough, then worse.
 

Edited Monday at 06:34 PM by BlueOak

[BlueOak]

1 hour ago, NewKidOnTheBlock said:

Some people don't seem to realize that BRICS is not really a military aliance but simply an economic pact between countries that refuse to resign themselves as slaves to the USD. Yeah they seemingly are conducting regular military exercises but it's not like they are alies or something. The world nowadays is much more fragmented than it used to be during the 20th century; in fact, even dependability of NATO or EU is not certain nowadays

That's a convenient propaganda piece.

BRICS supply economic and military support to Russia. They support Russia diplomatically also.  Ditto Venezuela or Iran.

I understand its a bit like how everyone blamed NATO for decades when America ran amok (and still do) i accepted it in the end, 'the evil west' narrative etc, they still go on about it now. But at least in BRICS case, it's more accurate that they are working together, most of the countries cooperating, like India signing treaties to work with Russian troops, or China sending parts and arms into Russia for Ukraine (some say via north korea), Iran sending drones.

I'd say NATO is hardened in Europe, its always been a defensive alliance, more so now than ever after being repeatedly threatend by Russia. There are a few countries that would waver but not many if it was attacked. Picking off outliers like Iran and Venezula in the current climate is understandable from this perspective. Like Thailand or Taiwan for BRICS. They are softer targets. i think China is poking the bear too much with Japan and won't like the end result there however, it'd be the same when Russia attacks the Baltics if there is enough left of their country to do so after Ukraine is concluded.

[NewKidOnTheBlock]

19 minutes ago, BlueOak said:

That's a convenient propaganda piece.

BRICS supply economic and military support to Russia. They support Russia diplomatically also.  Ditto Venezuela or Iran.

I understand its a bit like how everyone blamed NATO for decades when America ran amok (and still do) i accepted it in the end, 'the evil west' narrative etc, they still go on about it now. But at least in BRICS case, it's more accurate that they are working together, most of the countries cooperating, like India signing treaties to work with Russian troops, or China sending parts and arms into Russia for Ukraine (some say via north korea), Iran sending drones.

I'd say NATO is hardened in Europe, its always been a defensive alliance, more so now than ever after being repeatedly threatend by Russia. There are a few countries that would waver but not many if it was attacked. Picking off outliers like Iran and Venezula in the current climate is understandable from this perspective. Like Thailand or Taiwan for BRICS. They are softer targets. i think China is poking the bear too much with Japan and won't like the end result there however, it'd be the same when Russia attacks the Baltics if there is enough left of their country to do so after Ukraine is concluded.

Yeah, some BRICS states cooperate with Russia on specific things, but that’s transactional, not really ideological, India is buying cheap oil while simultaneously deepening ties with the US, China sends dual‑use components but also avoids crossing certain red lines because it doesn’t want secondary sanctions (it also aims to puppet Russia imo), Iran does what Iran always does. None of that resembles a coherent military bloc

And we don't even have to mention how cooked the West is, US does whatever it wants now, and EU still seems kind of wishy washy to me, it is undeniable to me that they would indeed certainly militarily respond in case of Russian aggression but the effectiveness and scale of such response is questionable to me

That’s why said that the world looks less like the Cold War and more like a messy medieval map, power is much more fragmented, not neatly sorted into Team West/NATO vs Team BRICS

[zazen]

Sky news: https://news.sky.com/story/greenland-trump-white-house-live-venezuela-maduro-capture-strikes-colombia-latest-13489831

”The US is attempting to seize a Venezuela-linked oil tanker after a more than two-week-long pursuit across the Atlantic, according to reports.

A US official has told Reuters that the seizure is being carried out by the Coast Guard and military.

Russian state news media outlet RT is also reporting that a helicopter, believed to be carrying US military forces, is attempting to land on the oil tanker.”

From pirates of the Carribean to pirates of the Atlantic. Didn’t think a sequel would come this quick 😂

@BlueOak we both said it’s gonna be a turbulent year but fuck me we’re only a week in.

 

Edited Wednesday at 02:35 PM by zazen

[Breakingthewall]

On 31/12/2025 at 6:30 PM, zazen said:

Collapse narratives conflate stress with collapse. Too much catastrophizing. Westerners project their liberal democracy political lens onto a authoritarian centralized state who have levers to pull on and overcome obstacles that democracies would struggle with as people revolt for their freedoms over not ''voting for it''. They also don't seem to have a pulse on things when it comes to the Russian mindset and sentiment. Many Russian's feel to be under seige by a West that demonizes them with their Russiophobia which only galvanizes them even more. In fact Putin is keeping hardliners at bay who would act much more emotionally ie Medvedev and the like.

On 30/12/2025 at 7:09 PM, BlueOak said:

 

 

The European landscape is likely to change drastically. Germany, England, and France will adopt authoritarian right-wing policies in few years, the US and Europe will drift apart, Germany will move closer to its natural ally, Russia, the euro maybe will fall, and in the Middle East, well, nobody's talking about Iran. The ayatollahs' regime will fall... tomorrow? In a week? Turkey will expel the clown, and China will emerge as the true world power. Big changes are coming.

[BlueOak]

On 07/01/2026 at 1:21 PM, zazen said:

Sky news: https://news.sky.com/story/greenland-trump-white-house-live-venezuela-maduro-capture-strikes-colombia-latest-13489831

”The US is attempting to seize a Venezuela-linked oil tanker after a more than two-week-long pursuit across the Atlantic, according to reports.

A US official has told Reuters that the seizure is being carried out by the Coast Guard and military.

Russian state news media outlet RT is also reporting that a helicopter, believed to be carrying US military forces, is attempting to land on the oil tanker.”

From pirates of the Carribean to pirates of the Atlantic. Didn’t think a sequel would come this quick 😂

@BlueOak we both said it’s gonna be a turbulent year but fuck me we’re only a week in.

 

Yeah. We are in WW3. Maybe one or two incidents away if we were being technical about it.

 

This was incredibly reckless given the distance to the border. But that was the point. A demonstration.

[BlueOak]

21 hours ago, Breakingthewall said:

The European landscape is likely to change drastically. Germany, England, and France will adopt authoritarian right-wing policies in few years, the US and Europe will drift apart, Germany will move closer to its natural ally, Russia, the euro maybe will fall, and in the Middle East, well, nobody's talking about Iran. The ayatollahs' regime will fall... tomorrow? In a week? Turkey will expel the clown, and China will emerge as the true world power. Big changes are coming.

Some of this is a propanda fantasy.

Germany is not an ally of Russia. Natural or otherwise, they have had significantly more conflicts than they have partnerships.
Every Russia supporter tells me the EU will fall, yet here it sits, because it's a Russia fantasy. Its not a collectivist thing that can fall in one go; its many countries that all need to be addressed separately. 'The West' is some collective invention that in reality doesn't exist like collectivists or authoritarians think. So they cannot adequately even conceptualize their opponents.

Russia needs it to break apart to keep pushing westward.  Maybe one day, but not because Russia floods it with migrants or threatens it collectively every few months (the last part there is idiotic if that's the goal, they've done nothing but harden europe)

If the EU goes full rightwing, Russia gets nuked if it pushes further. That pattern doesn't end as you want it to. Big changes are coming possibly, but it'll be a large war and tens of millions dead with this kind of prevalent attitude. If the Baltics flare up in the next ten years, it won't be 2 million Russian casualties; it'll be 10, if they go into Poland, it'll be 20 or more. Nothing unites populations quicker than aggressive countries pushing into their neighbors and causing crises's on their doorstep.

The US and EU will pull apart because America's devolving into a fascist state. Yes.
Iran will partially collapse because it has no water, and its one of the last countries that operate differently to the current world order's template. It doesn't really matter who governs it, it'll be unstable forever unless it gets a very strong partnership to supply water into a desert that's only ever going to get hotter. They need a visionary leader like in Saudi Arabia or Africa where they are greening the desert. Too few want to take climate change with the seriousness it requires, so these areas are done for.

Turkey will push downward and eastward, yes. I don't see anything in their way. Unless they start poking greece again.

Russia's economy will continue to collapse. The country if it continues, will see great loss, and more so if some of what you predict comes to pass. They are the front line in China's power grab westward. But then again, if fascism rises in the UK i'll be out fighting it, and I won't be alone. I don't see that myself in this country without a change in pattern.

China if it continues, will be at war with Japan, the Philippines, etc. It won't end as they want it to. But yes it'll be a big power, I don't see that changing.

Edited 7 hours ago by BlueOak