Investing 90k

[Elliott]

Pretty infantilizing for a personal development forum. 'Just work for other people, let the pros stear the ship', just follow your husband or church, school teacher.

Hedge funds consistently underperform the market, averaging 4% adjusting for inflation, since they began in the 50's, getting worse as time goes on. The market is 8%.

OP is asking about not losing money from the bubble, which is what those funds are heavily invested in. If you believe "the pros" know what they're doing, how did 08' happen? A lot of people that were retiring then lost most of their money, being in these funds.

Edited yesterday at 05:45 PM by Elliott

[Joseph Maynor]

I work with Principal Financial.  

[Emerald]

5 hours ago, Elliott said:

Pretty infantilizing for a personal development forum. 'Just work for other people, let the pros stear the ship', just follow your husband or church, school teacher.

Hedge funds consistently underperform the market, averaging 4% adjusting for inflation, since they began in the 50's, getting worse as time goes on. The market is 8%.

OP is asking about not losing money from the bubble, which is what those funds are heavily invested in. If you believe "the pros" know what they're doing, how did 08' happen? A lot of people that were retiring then lost most of their money, being in these funds.

I don't know if your comment is directed at me. 

But the way that people have reliably grown their investments by an average of 10% per year (7% if you factor in inflation) is by investing in a diversified index fund and leaving it in the market for decades.

The S&P 500 (and its predecessor before the S&P launched in the 1950s) has reliably returned an average of between 10-12% on investment over the past 100 years.

And that 10-12% average includes the '08 crash. 

So, even if there is some kind of bubble from AI, it's still a great idea to invest in a diversified index fund and just leave the money in there.

Time in the market beats timing the market.

So, it's not a matter of "trust the experts". It's more of a "Trust that what has been reliably happening for 100 years will continue to happen, even if there are downturns. And trust it enough to keep your money in the market even when there's a dip so that you can get compound interest."

And in the unlikely event that the stock market NEVER recovers from a downturn and the historical 10% average return pattern breaks... you'll have a lot more to worry about than losing your investment income.

Here's a calculator to show you why it's important to invest in a diversified index fund for retirement...

https://www.ramseysolutions.com/retirement/investment-calculator?srsltid=AU7gw4VnkvHOxoD4qesTszrD5JYQNN-5bTAC9dyD-uuFdfPsj8U-3RDm

Type in the amount of money you'd like to invest, the number of years before you retire, and assume a 7% return (which factors in inflation), and you'll understand why it's a good idea to invest that way.

[Elliott]

2 hours ago, Emerald said:

I don't know if your comment is directed at me. 

But the way that people have reliably grown their investments by an average of 10% per year (7% if you factor in inflation) is by investing in a diversified index fund and leaving it in the market for decades.

The S&P 500 (and its predecessor before the S&P launched in the 1950s) has reliably returned an average of between 10-12% on investment over the past 100 years.

And that 10-12% average includes the '08 crash. 

So, even if there is some kind of bubble from AI, it's still a great idea to invest in a diversified index fund and just leave the money in there.

Time in the market beats timing the market.

So, it's not a matter of "trust the experts". It's more of a "Trust that what has been reliably happening for 100 years will continue to happen, even if there are downturns. And trust it enough to keep your money in the market even when there's a dip so that you can get compound interest."

And in the unlikely event that the stock market NEVER recovers from a downturn and the historical 10% average return pattern breaks... you'll have a lot more to worry about than losing your investment income.

Here's a calculator to show you why it's important to invest in a diversified index fund for retirement...

https://www.ramseysolutions.com/retirement/investment-calculator?srsltid=AU7gw4VnkvHOxoD4qesTszrD5JYQNN-5bTAC9dyD-uuFdfPsj8U-3RDm

Type in the amount of money you'd like to invest, the number of years before you retire, and assume a 7% return (which factors in inflation), and you'll understand why it's a good idea to invest that way.

 

"An investment of $500,000 in the S&P 500 from the beginning of 2001 through the end of 2012 (a 12-year period) would have grown to approximately $681,303, assuming all dividends were reinvested. [1]

Real  (Inflation-Adjusted):Annual Growth Rate 0.32%

Because cumulative inflation during this span was roughly 31%, your true purchasing power remained almost completely flat."

 

If you just blindly put everything in s&p500, you'll likely lose half of your money in the next couple of years. If you just keep it in there until you retire, it can do it again when you go to retire. Retirements are usually not 50 years long.

 

 

Look at the years on this chart, this is the biggest run EVER, that means it's inflating your average return rate by about 300%

 

 

 

 

 

Red line would be about average(50% of today's price!!)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

These dips, are almost 50% drops

 

 

 

 

Look at how u.s. debt matches s&p. This suggests the s&p growth is not organic but synthetic

 

 

 

 

"Don't time the market" is not for an impending crash. Even Warren Buffet sold out of the market. Nor does it suggest blindly investing, AT ALL. Just because you read a sentence doesn't mean you understand what someone means, that's called "black and white thinking".

 

 

 

Edited 20 hours ago by Elliott

[Emerald]

@Elliot Warren Buffet recommends the same thing that I just did for the average person who's looking to invest who lacks expert knowledge of how to hand-pick stocks.

Here's the AI overview on Google for my question "Does Warren Buffett recommend investing in diversified index funds?"

"Yes, Warren Buffett consistently recommends low-cost, broad-market index funds for the vast majority of individual investors. 

Key details of his advice include:

• The S&P 500 Index: Buffett specifically advocates for investing in a low-cost fund that tracks the S&P 500, such as the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO). 
• The 90/10 Rule: In his instructions for his family trust, he recommended putting 90% of the money into a low-cost S&P 500 index fund and 10% into short-term government bonds. 
• Low Costs Matter: He emphasizes that high management fees and frequent trading by active managers eat away at returns, making low-cost passive index funds far superior over a lifetime. 
• A Nuance on Diversification: While he tells everyday investors to diversify broadly through index funds, his personal strategy with Berkshire Hathaway has been concentrated stock picking. He has noted that diversification is a "protection against ignorance" for people who do not have the time, expertise, or emotional discipline to analyze individual companies"

Edit: Also, to address the other claims. Many of those are true. You can absolutely have a downturn that decreases your portfolio by half. And if you happen to retire right when that happens and you still have your investments mostly in stocks, that would be a problem for you.

That's why Target Date funds exist... so that your investments get traded over to bonds and cash closer to when you retire, which makes your investments safer.

But if there's a 50% market downturn when you're in your 40s, you just have to ride out the ups and downs.

Historically, investing the S&P 500 has been the best bet for reliable investment outcomes.

Also, there's no evidence to suggest right now is the biggest run there's ever been... and there's not a 300% inflation on the historical average. Those claims are unsubstantiated.

So, even though investing in the S&P 500 can have some ups and downs, it doesn't mean it isn't a good investment strategy.

In fact, it's one of the most reliable investments that an individual can make.

Edited 19 hours ago by Emerald

[Elliott]

20 minutes ago, Emerald said:

@Elliot Warren Buffet recommends the same thing that I just did for the average person who's looking to invest who lacks expert knowledge of how to hand-pick stocks.

Here's the AI overview on Google for my question "Does Warren Buffett recommend investing in diversified index funds?"

"Yes, Warren Buffett consistently recommends low-cost, broad-market index funds for the vast majority of individual investors. 

Key details of his advice include:

• The S&P 500 Index: Buffett specifically advocates for investing in a low-cost fund that tracks the S&P 500, such as the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO). 
• The 90/10 Rule: In his instructions for his family trust, he recommended putting 90% of the money into a low-cost S&P 500 index fund and 10% into short-term government bonds. 
• Low Costs Matter: He emphasizes that high management fees and frequent trading by active managers eat away at returns, making low-cost passive index funds far superior over a lifetime. 
• A Nuance on Diversification: While he tells everyday investors to diversify broadly through index funds, his personal strategy with Berkshire Hathaway has been concentrated stock picking. He has noted that diversification is a "protection against ignorance" for people who do not have the time, expertise, or emotional discipline to analyze individual companies"

 

Lady, you don't understand what he's saying. Being able to read does not mean being able to understand.

 

 

NBC News

https://www.nbcnews.com

Warren Buffett amasses more cash and sells more stock, but doesn't explain ...

Feb 22, 2025 — The 94-year-old CEO of Berkshire Hathaway sold more stocks in the latest quarter and grew a record cash pile even larger to $334 billion, but

 

 

thefedcorner.com

https://thefedcorner.com

Why is Warren Buffett Holding Cash? - RMG Advisors

Jun 3, 2025 — One of the key reasons Buffett is holding so much cash is uncertainty. The financial markets are constantly shifting, and right now, we're in an 

 

 

The Motley Fool

https://www.fool.com

Warren Buffett Is Piling Up Cash as the Stock Market Wobbles. Here's What ...

Jul 12, 2026 — This isn't necessarily a market call. Buffett has long framed cash as optionality, the ability to move decisively when something cheap comes

Edited 19 hours ago by Elliott

[Emerald]

Just now, Elliott said:

Lady, you don't understand what he's saying

 

thefedcorner.com

https://thefedcorner.com

Why is Warren Buffett Holding Cash? - RMG Advisors

Jun 3, 2025 — One of the key reasons Buffett is holding so much cash is uncertainty. The financial markets are constantly shifting, and right now, we're in an 

I just looked at Warren Buffet's advice about investing for average people.

He recommends average people invest in low cost diversified index funds. And he still advocates for long-term investment in the market and keeping money in the market for the average investor.

However, because he has expert knowledge of stock-picking, he picks and chooses who he invests in... which most people would lose A TON of money if they tried that. 

Also, because Berkshire Hathaway has greater need for liquid assets he has pulled out of many of his investments. 

So, Warren Buffett's relationship to the stock market isn't remotely similar to the average person's relationship to the stock market.

That's why it doesn't translate that everyone should do what Warren Buffett is doing... especially not average people who don't have expert knowledge on investing and who don't run huge investment companies.

He certainly has never said it's a bad idea to invest in the S&P 500. And he said it's the best bet for the average person... and he's right about that.

Also, I just wrote more to my previous reply.

[hyruga]

SP500 refuses to drop because the market institutions still believe that certain industries like banking, commodities or Saas still hold more values than fixed deposits. 

So even when bad news about Ai came out and the institutions move funds, they rather move the money back to banking than withdrawing them and put to fixed deposits.

[Elliott]

33 minutes ago, Emerald said:

I just looked at Warren Buffet's advice about investing for average people.

He recommends average people invest in low cost diversified index funds. And he still advocates for long-term investment in the market and keeping money in the market for the average investor.

However, because he has expert knowledge of stock-picking, he picks and chooses who he invests in... which most people would lose A TON of money if they tried that. 

Also, because Berkshire Hathaway has greater need for liquid assets he has pulled out of many of his investments. 

So, Warren Buffett's relationship to the stock market isn't remotely similar to the average person's relationship to the stock market.

That's why it doesn't translate that everyone should do what Warren Buffett is doing... especially not average people who don't have expert knowledge on investing and who don't run huge investment companies.

He certainly has never said it's a bad idea to invest in the S&P 500. And he said it's the best bet for the average person... and he's right about that.

Also, I just wrote more to my previous reply.

Mmmkay. That doesn't mean invest 90k into s&p when everyone thinks the market is going to crash.

[Emerald]

30 minutes ago, Elliott said:

Mmmkay. That doesn't mean invest 90k into s&p when everyone thinks the market is going to crash.

I wouldn't try to predict or time the market. I would just invest consistently, a set amount each month.

But it could be wise to invest it gradually over the course of a few years as opposed to all in one lump sum. That way, if there is a crash, some of that investing is happening when stocks are at a low.

But I'd keep it consistent, if it were me.

What I would NOT do is to put off investing in the S&P for years because MAYBE there could be a crash on the horizon.

[Spiral]

Bitcoin goes up when stocks goes up. So there is no point owning bitcoins. Wide and cheap index funds is the way to go. Throw in some bonds and metals if you like.

Do not buy individual stocks.

Edited 7 hours ago by Spiral

[Nilas]

@Emerald

As I mentioned above, I completely agree with you. It’s just much harder for me to follow your advice now that my own money is on the line. 
So far, I’ve invested 20% in widely diversified stock ETFs, plus 10% in gold. For now, I’ll hold onto the rest and put it in a saving-account earning an average of about 3%. Maybe for 5–6 months. Above all, I want to wait and see how the midterms turn out.

[Emerald]

1 hour ago, Nilas said:

@Emerald

As I mentioned above, I completely agree with you. It’s just much harder for me to follow your advice now that my own money is on the line. 
So far, I’ve invested 20% in widely diversified stock ETFs, plus 10% in gold. For now, I’ll hold onto the rest and put it in a saving-account earning an average of about 3%. Maybe for 5–6 months. Above all, I want to wait and see how the midterms turn out.

That is the challenging part... sticking to the process of consistent monthly investing and keeping money in the market to compound interest even when there are ups and downs.

I suppose it's easier for me to say because I don't have that much invested.

[Elliott]

5 hours ago, Nilas said:

@Emerald

As I mentioned above, I completely agree with you. It’s just much harder for me to follow your advice now that my own money is on the line. 
So far, I’ve invested 20% in widely diversified stock ETFs, plus 10% in gold. For now, I’ll hold onto the rest and put it in a saving-account earning an average of about 3%. Maybe for 5–6 months. Above all, I want to wait and see how the midterms turn out.

CDs are 5% right now, zero risk. They should be going higher too

Edited 1 hour ago by Elliott