Leo's amazing predictions

[Leo Gura]

24 minutes ago, Stick said:

It can just replace 70 pecent workers with the remaining 30 percent being overseers. As long as the code generated (or anything else AI produces) works, its gonna be utilized.

Even that is too optimistic.

A chatbot cannot replace 70% of jobs.

If 70% of jobs are replaced, you better be prepping for WW3.

Edited 7 hours ago by Leo Gura

[Carl-Richard]

18 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

But AI is not more intelligent than even a dumb human, even a teen.

AI is less intelligent than 100% of humans.

Notice that your logic assumes AGI. To be more intelligent than even the dumbest humans requires AGI.

Just because a chatbot piggybacks off 2000 years of human writing does not make it truly intelligent. It cannot operate without supervision and lots of correction. A chatbot is like a factory. It will work if you set it up perfectly, but this requires lots of effort and the tasks it does need to be very predictable and straightforward,

AI Chatbots are like calculators. If you give them the right input, they can perform the most incredible tasks a human could not perform in 100x the time. But it stops about right there.

[Greatnestwithin]

1 hour ago, Leo Gura said:

Even that is too optimistic.

A chatbot cannot replace 70% of jobs.

If 70% of jobs are replaced, you better be prepping for WW3.

@Leo Gura have you already move all your investment to gold and cash out?

[Leo Gura]

1 hour ago, Carl-Richard said:

AI Chatbots are like calculators. If you give them the right input, they can perform the most incredible tasks a human could not perform in 100x the time. But it stops about right there.

Yes, exactly. It is a tool that requires an expert tool-user with true intelligence and creativity.

I have no problem when a truly intelligent and creative person leverages AI to speed up work. That is healthy.

17 minutes ago, Greatnestwithin said:

@Leo Gura have you already move all your investment to gold and cash out?

I did most of that 1.5 years ago. But I still have a bit left in stock and crypto. I need to sell it all before it is too late. I was hedging my bet a bit. But even that hedge now looks too risky.

The crash could happen any day now. I would not be surprised if it happens tomorrow.

Edited 5 hours ago by Leo Gura

[Greatnestwithin]

28 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

Yes, exactly. It is a tool that requires an expert tool-user with true intelligence and creativity.

I have no problem when a truly intelligent and creative person leverages AI to speed up work. That is healthy.

I did most of that 1.5 years ago. But I still have a bit left in stock and crypto. I need to sell it all before it is too late. I was hedging my bet a bit. But even that hedge now looks too risky.

The crash could happen any day now. I would not be surprised if it happens tomorrow.

@Leo Gura so you are more of cashing out and moving things into gold than re balancing your investment portfolio like to gold, debt etc

I imagine you pay taxes everytime you cash out there in the usa right?

[Leo Gura]

29 minutes ago, Greatnestwithin said:

@Leo Gura so you are more of cashing out and moving things into gold

Yes.

Warren Buffet is majority cash right now. He's been that way for 2 year. So have I.

Being fully vested in this stock market is suicidal. At bare minimum you should be 50% non-equities.

Quote

I imagine you pay taxes everytime you cash out there in the usa right?

Yup. If you made a profit.

I would rather pay tax than sit through a 50% collapse.

Edited 4 hours ago by Leo Gura

[StaraX]

1 hour ago, Leo Gura said:

Yes.

Warren Buffet is majority cash right now. He's been that way for 2 year. So have I.

Being fully vested in this stock market is suicidal. At bare minimum you should be 50% non-equities.

Yup. If you made a profit.

I would rather pay tax than sit through a 50% collapse.

@Leo Gura What do you think of real estate investments, such as residential houses? Is it a legitimate way to achieve financial independence, assuming one knows what he or she is doing?

[Leo Gura]

7 minutes ago, StaraX said:

@Leo Gura What do you think of real estate investments, such as residential houses? Is it a legitimate way to achieve financial independence, assuming one knows what he or she is doing?

In general that's very good. But right now the USA housing market is inflated, so I would not buy real estate before the AI bubble crashes. Wait till the AI hype dies down. You will find much better deals. Wait a few years.

Edited 3 hours ago by Leo Gura

[ZenSwift]

1 hour ago, Leo Gura said:

Being fully vested in this stock market is suicidal. At bare minimum you should be 50% non-equities.

So, basically, me having 95% of my savings in Canadian ETFs is me being a fool right now? 

(I'm in Canada. But I assume markets are too closely tied to USA) 

[Leo Gura]

36 minutes ago, ZenSwift said:

So, basically, me having 95% of my savings in Canadian ETFs is me being a fool right now? 

(I'm in Canada. But I assume markets are too closely tied to USA) 

I don't want to give direct investment advice. But having all your money in stocks today is crazy to me.

[something_else]

6 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

A chatbot cannot replace 70% of jobs.

@Leo Gura Have you tried out any agentic models like Claude Code?

I feel like outside of tech nobody has really seen these models much and what they can do. They are not just chatbots, they’re a tier above. They are extremely autonomous and can perform actions, gather new data, plan and orchestrate stuff etc.

Edited 1 hour ago by something_else

[NewKidOnTheBlock]

It's gonna be interesting to see how the crash is gonna unfold, if there even is one; you can't really know for sure where the bottom of that crash is gonna be, so I'd probably spread out the lump sum I've saved over a certain time horizon, however long it may be. Put a third in the moment the crash happens, and then the rest gradually between then and when it bottoms out

[Davino]

On 9/7/2026 at 10:02 AM, OBEler said:

AI will save every company a lot of money because they need less employees and everything on a computer can get automated almost completely. Even if AGI doesnt come in next years, the technology is already good enough.

This mostly a fantasy and the best experts on the field have been already calling it. 

Quote

In a survey of 724 business leaders, Gartner found that many organizations struggle to translate their AI and generative AI investments into meaningful productivity gains. Only 34% of teams using generative AI reported high productivity improvements.

In another survey of 782 infrastructure and operations leaders, only 28% of AI use cases fully met ROI expectations, while 20% failed outright. Gartner noted that many organizations expected AI to reduce costs and automate complex work much faster than has actually happened.

Gartner has also warned that AI-driven layoffs, by themselves, are not delivering better financial returns. In a survey of 350 executives from companies with more than $1 billion in annual revenue, workforce reductions were just as common among companies with poor AI ROI as among those with strong returns. Gartner's conclusion was that cutting staff creates budget room, but it does not create returns. The organizations seeing the best outcomes are those that use AI to augment employees rather than simply replace them.

In Gartner's CEO survey, executives also identified the inability to quantify AI's value and business impact as one of the biggest barriers to broader AI adoption, highlighting how difficult it remains to justify many AI investments economically.

 

[Leo Gura]

35 minutes ago, something_else said:

@Leo Gura Have you tried out any agentic models like Claude Code?

I feel like outside of tech nobody has really seen these models much and what they can do. They are not just chatbots, they’re a tier above. They are extremely autonomous and can perform actions, gather new data, plan and orchestrate stuff etc.

I have not. But I worked a lot with visual AI and know its limitations very well.

The bottom line is that your chatbot is not truly intelligent no matter how good it is. It can write you some code but it cannot do a job.

19 minutes ago, NewKidOnTheBlock said:

Put a third in the moment the crash happens

Nah. A proper crash doesn't happen in a week or a month. A proper crash takes 1-2 years at least to play out.

Go back and look at the crash charts for 2000 and 2008. It took a long time for the recovery to start. Recovery does not start within a month because the entire mood flipped. When a true crash happens, the mood of all investors turns bearish and so negative that no one wants to invest, everyone is caught in a conformist doom-spiral for at least a year. When a real crash comes, people will be in so much pain they will vow never to invest again. That is what creates the bottom. When your retirement fund is 20% of what it used to be, that's when the doom comes.

A crash should also bring with it a bunch of money-printing and inflation.

Edited 42 minutes ago by Leo Gura

[Davino]

My prediction is that the market is very inflated, but probably the straw that will break the camel's back will be OpenAI and Anthropic entering public market through an IPO.

We will have a gold rush fever and in due time everything will crash. (Then the wise people will make selective investments profiting from the discounts and social hysteria) 

Edited 40 minutes ago by Davino

[Leo Gura]

1 minute ago, Davino said:

the straw that will break the camel's back will be OpenAI and Anthropic entering public market through an IPO.

The bubble may not last that long. But certainly that's a reasonable crash-point.

Edited 40 minutes ago by Leo Gura

[Leo Gura]

I am going to argue against myself here:

It is possible that the bubble will not pop because there is simply so much money invested in tech that there's really nowhere else for that money to go. Where will investors park all their money? Into cash? That's bad due to inflation and low yield. In gold? Gold cannot hold that much money.

Also, tech companies are so profitable that they can afford to lose hundreds of billions and still stay solvent. Google makes something like $100 billion per quarter! Google can make back a $500 billion loss in 1 year.

Be careful not to assume that a crash is inevitable. It may not be.

Edited 35 minutes ago by Leo Gura

[Davino]

@Leo Gura Let's follow this counter argument exercise.

An important piece that would make AI affordable and profitable in my opinion is a revolution in the energy field. If we get a breakthrough in nuclear energy, finding very efficient ways of producing massive amounts of energy, then keeping up the margin profits of building bigger AI models become more plausible. The release of such bottleneck would be a very nice wind on the back for the industry.

[Leo Gura]

4 minutes ago, Davino said:

If we get a breakthrough in nuclear energy

I don't think this is a valid argument because nuclear energy takes decades to build. You can't get significant new nuclear energy production without 5-10 years of build-out. This bubble cannot wait that long.

A better argument is that all these trillions of dollars invested into tech will somehow lead to a lucky discovery of AGI.

For the AI bubble to not pop, AGI needs to be discovered within the next 3 years.

Is that possible? Yes. Would I bet on it? Hell naw.

Edited 15 minutes ago by Leo Gura

[something_else]

28 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

I have not. But I worked a lot with visual AI and know its limitations very well.

The bottom line is that your chatbot is not truly intelligent no matter how good it is. It can write you some code but it cannot do a job.

I agree. There is usually some element of communication, ethics, or a human factor to many jobs that I suspect AI won’t be able to replace anytime soon.

But I think you would be surprised how capable these agentic models are. It is leaps and bounds above the AI image generation. Like not even in the same ballpark of impact. Read my description of what these agents can do from earlier in the thread.