The AI crash is impossible - Change my View

[Leo Gura]

Pigs and turkeys get slaughtered.

Edited August 27 by Leo Gura

[AION]

1 hour ago, vinc3nc said:

@AION One example: the last three bull runs lasted 1064-1071 days. So, almost the exact same length of time (within 1 week). The last two bear markets lasted around 365 days. This one, if it bottoms in early October, will also have lasted around 365 days.

If it's already bottomed, then that was 268 days, which is something that has never happened before (a short bear market), but then again, at some point this pattern has to break, right?

Public perception? Well, BTC becomes cheaper and cheaper in people’s eyes the more it drops, especially as it gets closer to that 1-year mark of the bear market.

But who says the past patterns will repeat? I don’t believe that kind of analysis is good. At the end it is just luck whether or not past patterns repeat or no 

 

Past patterns only repeat in a closed off system 

Edited August 27 by AION

[vinc3nc]

@Leo Gura Also true.

@AION Then why did you mention 35K? Is that a special number for some reason? What are you looking at? The market doesn’t owe you anything. If you can’t recognize when an asset enters the value zone, when it becomes cheap, then you don’t deserve the rewards when it eventually explodes to the upside.

That’s why a DCA strategy is often so popular. You never really know when the bottom is in, so instead of trying to guess it and thinking you’re going to go all-in at a specific price, you simply DCA every month, regardless of the price. And you start doing that not at the top, but when the price has dropped enough for it to make sense.

Edited August 27 by vinc3nc

[LordFall]

Seems like lower lows for Bitcoin are expected for the next while

 

[KosmicGeng]

3 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

Pigs and turkeys get slaughtered.

Unironically I find this comment very insightful, I kept my money for long, before this stupid break-up I really disliked the tendencies of families to be freaking abusive, while having tons of corruption, I still would made money from my investments if I would not have pulled everything out of the pool, anyhow I have to read some books and think for myself about this, I make odd experiences and a lot of good investors or people that have learned and failed want to help me, can't simply dismiss them, the worst part art the online scams and instagram influences about investment the entire game out of YouTube mostly imo YouTube is fine, but instagram and TikTok is hell for money advice, just posting anything or monetizing opens the flood gates for hellish type of influences. 

[LordFall]

Clarity Act being voted on by the US Senate literally right now. Results should be tallied in the next 30 mins.

Edit: It did not pass

 

Edited September 15 by LordFall

[vinc3nc]

@LordFall

[LordFall]

Ben is a gem for owning it directly, most of Crypto Twitter and YouTube analysts quietly delete tweets and pivot narrative the second things don't go their way.

He didn't see this rally coming but his macro thesis kept people from incinerating their stacks on altcoins for the last two years while BTC dominance ran the show. You should use his channel for risk management and cycle history, not to front run temporary pumps. 

[vinc3nc]

@LordFall I like Ben. He's one of the best.

The lesson here is to never listen to just one person and make decisions based solely on what they say. Ultimately, you have to make your own decisions because it's your money that you're risking.

[vinc3nc]

Leo wanted you to sell BTC and crypto near the bottom (into gold). When BTC was at 64k, 10% above the bottom. And I told him multiples times that it was stupid.

2 months later BTC is at 87k and crypto is going up like crazy. 

[something_else]

9 hours ago, vinc3nc said:

Leo wanted you to sell BTC and crypto near the bottom (into gold). When BTC was at 64k, 10% above the bottom. And I told him multiples times that it was stupid.

2 months later BTC is at 87k and crypto is going up like crazy. 

What was your argument at the time for why crypto would go up again in the future? Just curious more than anything 

[Leo Gura]

@vinc3nc Dude, just because number go up does not make it a sound investment.

Crypto is highly volatile. Any given month it can be up 30% or down 30%.

My case was that if the AI bubble pops, crypto will be a bloodbath. That is still true as ever.

Don't forget that you can always get lucky in investing. That doesn't mean your strategy was sound.

Edited 11 hours ago by Leo Gura

[vinc3nc]

@something_else @Leo Gura

"I still dont understand why you equate tech stocks with crypto. Stocks are near their highs, while crypto has been destroyed and is bottoming out. BTC is down 50%, and altcoins are down 85–97%. This is not where you sell BTC or crypto. This is where you start DCAing into it slowly until October (if you believe in it). The last 2 bear markets lasted exactly 1 year, and we are less than 3 months away from that 1-year mark."

This is what I wrote to one of his posts.

So basically the fact that crypto basically went to zero and couldn't go any lower. So you could get amazing prices at the lows if you bought. because it was undervalued, A market bottoms where theres no sellers left.

[Leo Gura]

42 minutes ago, vinc3nc said:

I still dont understand why you equate tech stocks with crypto.

When the market crashes, even gold will drop 25%. Nevermind crypto. Crypto will drop 90%. Because everyone will be scared and running for the exits. Don't forget that crypto is fundamentally worthless. You will learn that the hard way when the tech market crashes.

The only value of crypto is its hype. Nothing more.

Edited 7 hours ago by Leo Gura

[vinc3nc]

@Leo Gura The fear of the next crash can become more expensive than the crash itself.

[something_else]

39 minutes ago, vinc3nc said:

@Leo Gura The fear of the next crash can become more expensive than the crash itself.

Yea, that's... how the market works.

Quote

The last 2 bear markets lasted exactly 1 year, and we are less than 3 months away from that 1-year mark.

"The last two buses arrived 12 minutes late, so this one is basically guaranteed to be here in 11 minutes."

[OBEler]

@Leo Gura Leo you think really this ralley will stop because they somehow find out that AGI is not possible? How on earth. Chatgpt Astra is already in discussion as being the first AGI. every 3 month we get mind blowing new AIs. How do you think will a crash happen. Some doctor will proof that current AI is not AGI and then all people panic and sell ? 

[AION]

2 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

When the market crashes, even gold will drop 25%. Nevermind crypto. Crypto will drop 90%. Because everyone will be scared and running for the exits. Don't forget that crypto is fundamentally worthless. You will learn that the hard way when the tech market crashes.

The only value of crypto is its hype. Nothing more.

Wait until you realize that all value is hype  😭

Fiat currency is hype too.

Like everything else.

Like gold. When Elon starts mining asteroids and planets, see what happens to your gold price.

Edited 5 hours ago by AION

[vinc3nc]

@something_else I understand. It might sound stupid. But once you study BTC price action, it doesn't seem that stupid anymore. It follows a pattern: 3 years of bull market, 1 year of bear market. It's called the 4-year cycle. There's also something called the BTC halving, which happens every 4 years.

You create an edge for yourself in the markets by studying things like history.

 

[Leo Gura]

1 hour ago, vinc3nc said:

@Leo Gura The fear of the next crash can become more expensive than the crash itself.

Could be, could be. I could be totally wrong about a crash.

58 minutes ago, OBEler said:

@Leo Gura Leo you think really this ralley will stop because they somehow find out that AGI is not possible? How on earth. Chatgpt Astra is already in discussion as being the first AGI.

Have you learned nothing about how conformity works?

We already know they don't have AGI and nothing close to AGI.

39 minutes ago, AION said:

Wait until you realize that all value is hype  😭

All value is hype, but some hype is more hype than other hype

When the market crashes you will see the hype of gold hold strong and the hype of crypto flop harder than Andrew Tate.

Investing in crypto is exactly like investing in Andrew Tate.

Edited 5 hours ago by Leo Gura