The AI crash is impossible - Change my View

[Leo Gura]

23 minutes ago, LordFall said:

Please don't say "Numbers go up" 

Monkeys go ape-shit 

[LordFall]

21 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

Monkeys go ape-shit 

There is actually a lot of deep psychology when it comes to crypto. The fact that humans react more to emotion than logic is to true. I will not confirm or deny that I have invested money after watching funny meme videos on more than one occasion. 

This one got me good, it's so catchy.

 

[pablo_aka_god]

2 hours ago, LordFall said:

All investment industries are related since the money that goes into all of them is part of global financial liquidity. The 4 year cycle that Bitcoin is known for is based on liquidity cycles. If the AI bubble pops then people will panic and pull their money out of the market as a whole and since crypto is actually quite small compared to the overall investment market(Crypto market as a whole is $2.63 trillion, Bitcoin itself is $1.55 trillion of that, Nvidia itself is $5.2 trillion and the S&P 500 is $70 trillion.)

An AI bubble pop leading to a market crash would absolutely wipe the crypto market down to $30K bitcoin and probably below even if overall crypto adoption into the US banking system is still happening. 

@LordFall Thank u for the great explanation.

 

My take is that AI is both very revolutionary tech and a bubble, The entire US economy is in a very delicate situation where companies are full of schemes for pumping stock and government is starting wars to create demand for dollars to stop inflation.

Logically it should all collapse but we are talking about the biggest economy in the world, there are so manny players involved(even China is invested in the US) that I believe this situation may extend indefinitely. Everybody, even the government are turning a blind eye. No one wants the fairy tale to end.

Where is all the capital going to go if everybody sells their stock? It can't stay in cash for too long due to inflation

Edited 21 hours ago by pablo_aka_god

[vinc3nc]

@LordFall BTC itself doesn't need to be explained. Scarcity, store of value, etc. Crypto (altcoins) is a different story. It's more speculative. But, for instance, take a look at Hyperliquid, and you'll see that there are good projects out there.

Other than that, there are the 4-year cycles. Bear markets usually last around 365 days, while bull markets last 1000+ days. We're nearing the end of the bear market (October). You buy when it's boring, prices are low, and no one wants to buy. People are predicting even lower prices, unrealistically low ones.

BTC has always made a new ATH. Higher highs, higher lows. Its more volatile than most things, but thats a feature, not a bug. Buy at the right time, and you'll outperform most people. Buy at the wrong time, and you'll get rekt. It's not a game for everyone, but certainly for patient people, those who can handle the volatility, and those who believe in a better form of money.

Edited 21 hours ago by vinc3nc

[vinc3nc]

This is BTC against gold and BTC against stocks.

This is where you buy BTC. Not at the highs, but at the lows. Not when its at 100k or 120k or 150k, but when its at 65k or 60k or lower.

Thats how you make money. But most people do the opposite. Like everywhere else, most people lose money: poker, casinos, sports betting, investing. Its all the same.

[Leo Gura]

The issue is not about crypto. It's about the macro economics of the AI tech bubble.

Even if crypto had excellent fundamentals, which it don't, it will still crash along with the AI bubble.

Investing in crypto right now is like pissing into a hurricane.

Edited 21 hours ago by Leo Gura

[LordFall]

56 minutes ago, vinc3nc said:

@LordFall BTC itself doesn't need to be explained. Scarcity, store of value, etc. Crypto (altcoins) is a different story. It's more speculative. But, for instance, take a look at Hyperliquid, and you'll see that there are good projects out there.

Other than that, there are the 4-year cycles. Bear markets usually last around 365 days, while bull markets last 1000+ days. We're nearing the end of the bear market (October). You buy when it's boring, prices are low, and no one wants to buy. People are predicting even lower prices, unrealistically low ones.

BTC has always made a new ATH. Higher highs, higher lows. Its more volatile than most things, but thats a feature, not a bug. Buy at the right time, and you'll outperform most people. Buy at the wrong time, and you'll get rekt. It's not a game for everyone, but certainly for patient people, those who can handle the volatility, and those who believe in a better form of money.

Of course it needs to be explained. If it's a store of value why has gold been outperforming it? 

The Trump Family and other elites globally are heavily invested in crypto. Does that give you confidence that it's a solid asset worth investing a lot of your money in or that it's market manipulation meant to enrich themselves at the expense of the population?

Bitcoin hasn't always made ATH, its only existed for 17 years. In terms of asset class that's very little. It has a strong history for sure but we can have about 5000 years of history as a species with commodities as money. Many assets have risen and fallen since then. Let's discuss fundamentals otherwise price performance is not a solid point to lay the foundation of your argument on. I don't really believe in technical analysis that much, it's a very shorted sighted way to understand macroeconomics IMO. I watch Benjamin Cowen at times and he makes some good videos but I still am not that much of a crypto believer. 

I read The Bitcoin Standard by Saifedean Ammous and about half of the sequel to it Fiat Standard. I think it's an incredible book that taught me a lot about macroeconomics. If you asked me 10 years from now will BTC be at new ATH like $500k-1M or will it go to $0? Hard to say but I would say %65 $0 and 35% $1M. 

@pablo_aka_god So hard to say bro. Depends what our individual investment strategy is. As I said mine is to build a cashflow business based on my own operational skills as well developed and scale the multiple media brands I currently operate. Every other strategy is too flimsy for me. I believe AI as a concept will help the average person sometime in the next 50 years with UBI. Whether there will be a 15 year period where the standard of living of most of the masses globally collapses drastically before that; hard to say.

I think that's the most pressing concern really. K shaped economy and reverse market crash(market pump that makes everyone holding assets rich and everyong relying on labor poor) are both terrible for the general population. 

Edited 20 hours ago by LordFall

[vinc3nc]

@LordFall I don't have time to convince you of why you should invest in anything. It's your job to DYOR. My main issue here was with Leo saying and repeating many times that BTC and crypto were going to crash because of the AI bubble, when BTC was already 55% down from the top and lots of alts were like 85–97% down from their highs.

When things literally can't go much lower because of how much they've already been destroyed, and when youre already like 90% into the bear market, you have a person saying, "crypto is gonna crash."

Ive been through 3 crypto cycles already (since 2017), and its just funny because its always the same, or at least very similar. So I know what the sentiment is like around the top and the bottom, and what people tend to say.

 

[LordFall]

11 minutes ago, vinc3nc said:

@LordFall I don't have time to convince you of why you should invest in anything. It's your job to DYOR. My main issue here was with Leo saying and repeating many times that BTC and crypto were going to crash because of the AI bubble, when BTC was already 55% down from the top and lots of alts were like 85–97% down from their highs.

When things literally can't go much lower because of how much they've already been destroyed, and when youre already like 90% into the bear market, you have a person saying, "crypto is gonna crash."

Ive been through 3 crypto cycles already (since 2017), and its just funny because its always the same, or at least very similar. So I know what the sentiment is like around the top and the bottom, and what people tend to say.

 

Got it man sounds like you're not really comprehending how the global liquidity and macroeconomics work nor are interested in educating yourself. As I've said I read books on this stuff and keep researching and learning more each week. I wish you the best of luck, you'll need it. 

This is a good video on the history of human economy and capitalism if you actually wanna understand macroeconomics and how Bitcoin fits into it. As I've previously recommended, reading the Bitcoin Standard is also pretty mandatory reading to have a non comical discussion around it.

 

Edited 19 hours ago by LordFall

[vinc3nc]

@LordFall You're making a lot of assumptions here. Good luck to you too.

[oOo]

What I find interesting is just how strategically terrible the AI's are in complex situational strategic dynamics, especially those that have greater time horizons from days to weeks to years.

It just feels like the kid in class that tries really hard to impress the teacher to get good grades.

But when you put it in a foreign environment that it doesn't get to train on, unless its able to just chip away through a process of repeated trial and error which can take at least half a day of compute and there's no guarantees that follow here, there's a whole range of things, especially dynamically complex strategic thinking (which thus excludes chess) that it'll just completely fail on.

The proposed term I could hash that feels encompassing that AI presently sucks on is "multi-variable and multi-track non-linear temporal convergence".

I feel bad, as it turns the kid into kind of a class clown when you test it on these kinds of problems that should be relatively simple. Still, its pretty damn good at being a straight A student.

This kind of strategic reasoning is just one area, it may overlap with great difficulties in actual fluid reasoning abilities, so genuine cognitive intelligence, such as what's required in imagination and genuinely creative original work as I have tried getting it to write an imaginative book and GPT Pro failed miserably; it'll be interesting to see how it progresses here. It makes me realise though that the prior imaginative failing I noted was actually revealing a far deeper problem I wasn't able to view as cleanly as before. Because its failures in this kind of reasoning where you would have thought it'd be amazing in, it just fails miserably; I am literally strategically superior across every experiment I've so far tested on the kind of strategic thinking I noted.

One other peculiarity I want to note is yesterday I was doing some science research anyhow it starts off in one of the paragraphs, here let me quickly get the exact quote “That distinction applies to several sexy-looking biomarkers. BDNF, for example, is often advertised as a universally beneficial ‘brain-growth molecule,’ yet BDNF/TrkB signalling has both neuroprotective and epileptogenic functions depending upon context.” The use of the word 'sexy' here is non-trial, and statistically significant from a probabilistic anomalous dissection for conclusions. I don't know the full extent of the meaning behind why it used the word 'sexy', however the question still remains, how the fuck did it cross that linguistic boundary into using that term in what otherwise is a promoted G rated age friendly digital environment? I raise this in the context of other news related events concerning, as well as not ruling out the possibility that the companies themselves, allow room for these kinds of statistical errors to sometimes breach what are otherwise assumed and culturally biased, language barriers. 

 

[LordFall]

@oOo I would say it's a case of magnifying glass not having the exact right angle and once it does; it'll burn through anything. 

I agree with you at the moment its best used as an advanced calculator to synthesized massive amounts of data. That amount of synthesizing is all that's needed for massive insight though, that's how humans learn as well. Pattern recognition with a goal in mind. 

[OBEler]

@KosmicGeng "I joined some options traiding stuff to test stuff, but I got hacked etc. huge issue with tech security, and a lot of bias also there it's very annoying the modern/ethnocentric underbelly within tech." 

You joined a scammer platform probably without realizing and they just told you you got hacked. Never join an unknown platform. 

 

Edited 13 hours ago by OBEler

[KosmicGeng]

22 minutes ago, OBEler said:

"I joined some options traiding stuff to test stuff, but I got hacked etc. huge issue with tech security, and a lot of bias also there it's very annoying the modern/ethnocentric underbelly within tech." 

You joined a scammer platform probably without realizing and they just told you you got hacked. Never join an unknown platform. 

No, this was on a different occasion, I got hacked by a chinese jewlery seller on Linkedin, the options tradeing stuff was on a legitmate site from an event I attended, my message was a bit confusing a lot happend, but I did not join a scammer plattform, that was legitmate. The scam was getting hacked on LinkedIn, during job search, this happend around the same time, but the plattform was legitmate with a guy with a lot of experience for options tradeing.

The hack was serious, and I had to recover my LinkedIn profile, I did not get hacked on the options tradeing plattform, we just tested and he shared knowledge as a mentor. The two events have nothing to do with each other, they just occured around the same timeframe approx., hence I conflated the two events in the comment, but they are independent of each other.

The hack was serious and independent of the options tradeing event, otherwise the options trading account would be hacked too, but that still exists etc. We had different backgrounds, and he was interested in software, but I was overworked, IIRC I was already hacked during the time, I did this, and recovered my LinkedIn, the core issue lies way deeper, with security, and a lack of integrity in the software field, also hackers etc. 

Anyhow, I don't expect you to understand what I mean. Just to inform these two things happend independent from each other, but around the same time frame. 

My bad for saying the options trading stuff got hacked, only my LinkedIn during that time frame! I was super angry and still partially am.

Edited 13 hours ago by KosmicGeng

[oOo]

2 hours ago, LordFall said:

@oOo I would say it's a case of magnifying glass not having the exact right angle and once it does; it'll burn through anything. 

I agree with you at the moment its best used as an advanced calculator to synthesized massive amounts of data. That amount of synthesizing is all that's needed for massive insight though, that's how humans learn as well. Pattern recognition with a goal in mind. 

That's a solid analogy. AI is a BAD WIFI connection on synthesising my own theories but! Mid-level stuff though is I'd say 90-99% there on consistently reaching at least 65% percent in informational integrity and then it tapers off from here. It becomes tricky attributing higher capabilities from here because of the various domains "mid-level" still encompasses. Some mid-level stuff its probably 99.0-99.99% there on consistently reaching 99% plus in informational integrity after synthesis, other stuff and our lowest point probably wouldn't dip below 90-99% on 65%. It's kind of like comparing AM and FM radio where the imaginary intersection is MM radio where you get the best of both worlds in both amplitude and frequency. A lot of the signal of my own original theories can still collapse into static. Inter-reflectively, yeah, great sidekick for pre-programmed routes.

[LordFall]

I think she's right and people are gonna get trapped chasing a pump that was just a liquidity grab by market manipulators.