The AI crash is impossible - Change my View

[Leo Gura]

23 minutes ago, LordFall said:

Please don't say "Numbers go up" 

Monkeys go ape-shit 

[LordFall]

21 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

Monkeys go ape-shit 

There is actually a lot of deep psychology when it comes to crypto. The fact that humans react more to emotion than logic is to true. I will not confirm or deny that I have invested money after watching funny meme videos on more than one occasion. 

This one got me good, it's so catchy.

 

[pablo_aka_god]

2 hours ago, LordFall said:

All investment industries are related since the money that goes into all of them is part of global financial liquidity. The 4 year cycle that Bitcoin is known for is based on liquidity cycles. If the AI bubble pops then people will panic and pull their money out of the market as a whole and since crypto is actually quite small compared to the overall investment market(Crypto market as a whole is $2.63 trillion, Bitcoin itself is $1.55 trillion of that, Nvidia itself is $5.2 trillion and the S&P 500 is $70 trillion.)

An AI bubble pop leading to a market crash would absolutely wipe the crypto market down to $30K bitcoin and probably below even if overall crypto adoption into the US banking system is still happening. 

@LordFall Thank u for the great explanation.

 

My take is that AI is both very revolutionary tech and a bubble, The entire US economy is in a very delicate situation where companies are full of schemes for pumping stock and government is starting wars to create demand for dollars to stop inflation.

Logically it should all collapse but we are talking about the biggest economy in the world, there are so manny players involved(even China is invested in the US) that I believe this situation may extend indefinitely. Everybody, even the government are turning a blind eye. No one wants the fairy tale to end.

Where is all the capital going to go if everybody sells their stock? It can't stay in cash for too long due to inflation

Edited 1 hour ago by pablo_aka_god

[vinc3nc]

@LordFall BTC itself doesn't need to be explained. Scarcity, store of value, etc. Crypto (altcoins) is a different story. It's more speculative. But, for instance, take a look at Hyperliquid, and you'll see that there are good projects out there.

Other than that, there are the 4-year cycles. Bear markets usually last around 365 days, while bull markets last 1000+ days. We're nearing the end of the bear market (October). You buy when it's boring, prices are low, and no one wants to buy. People are predicting even lower prices, unrealistically low ones.

BTC has always made a new ATH. Higher highs, higher lows. Its more volatile than most things, but thats a feature, not a bug. Buy at the right time, and you'll outperform most people. Buy at the wrong time, and you'll get rekt. It's not a game for everyone, but certainly for patient people, those who can handle the volatility, and those who believe in a better form of money.

Edited 1 hour ago by vinc3nc

[vinc3nc]

This is BTC against gold and BTC against stocks.

This is where you buy BTC. Not at the highs, but at the lows. Not when its at 100k or 120k or 150k, but when its at 65k or 60k or lower.

Thats how you make money. But most people do the opposite. Like everywhere else, most people lose money: poker, casinos, sports betting, investing. Its all the same.

[Leo Gura]

The issue is not about crypto. It's about the macro economics of the AI tech bubble.

Even if crypto had excellent fundamentals, which it don't, it will still crash along with the AI bubble.

Investing in crypto right now is like pissing into a hurricane.

Edited 1 hour ago by Leo Gura

[LordFall]

56 minutes ago, vinc3nc said:

@LordFall BTC itself doesn't need to be explained. Scarcity, store of value, etc. Crypto (altcoins) is a different story. It's more speculative. But, for instance, take a look at Hyperliquid, and you'll see that there are good projects out there.

Other than that, there are the 4-year cycles. Bear markets usually last around 365 days, while bull markets last 1000+ days. We're nearing the end of the bear market (October). You buy when it's boring, prices are low, and no one wants to buy. People are predicting even lower prices, unrealistically low ones.

BTC has always made a new ATH. Higher highs, higher lows. Its more volatile than most things, but thats a feature, not a bug. Buy at the right time, and you'll outperform most people. Buy at the wrong time, and you'll get rekt. It's not a game for everyone, but certainly for patient people, those who can handle the volatility, and those who believe in a better form of money.

Of course it needs to be explained. If it's a store of value why has gold been outperforming it? 

The Trump Family and other elites globally are heavily invested in crypto. Does that give you confidence that it's a solid asset worth investing a lot of your money in or that it's market manipulation meant to enrich themselves at the expense of the population?

Bitcoin hasn't always made ATH, its only existed for 17 years. In terms of asset class that's very little. It has a strong history for sure but we can have about 5000 years of history as a species with commodities as money. Many assets have risen and fallen since then. Let's discuss fundamentals otherwise price performance is not a solid point to lay the foundation of your argument on. I don't really believe in technical analysis that much, it's a very shorted sighted way to understand macroeconomics IMO. I watch Benjamin Cowen at times and he makes some good videos but I still am not that much of a crypto believer. 

I read The Bitcoin Standard by Saifedean Ammous and about half of the sequel to it Fiat Standard. I think it's an incredible book that taught me a lot about macroeconomics. If you asked me 10 years from now will BTC be at new ATH like $500k-1M or will it go to $0? Hard to say but I would say %65 $0 and 35% $1M. 

@pablo_aka_god So hard to say bro. Depends what our individual investment strategy is. As I said mine is to build a cashflow business based on my own operational skills as well developed and scale the multiple media brands I currently operate. Every other strategy is too flimsy for me. I believe AI as a concept will help the average person sometime in the next 50 years with UBI. Whether there will be a 15 year period where the standard of living of most of the masses globally collapses drastically before that; hard to say.

I think that's the most pressing concern really. K shaped economy and reverse market crash(market pump that makes everyone holding assets rich and everyong relying on labor poor) are both terrible for the general population. 

Edited 36 minutes ago by LordFall

[vinc3nc]

@LordFall I don't have time to convince you of why you should invest in anything. It's your job to DYOR. My main issue here was with Leo saying and repeating many times that BTC and crypto were going to crash because of the AI bubble, when BTC was already 55% down from the top and lots of alts were like 85–97% down from their highs.

When things literally can't go much lower because of how much they've already been destroyed, and when youre already like 90% into the bear market, you have a person saying, "crypto is gonna crash."

Ive been through 3 crypto cycles already (since 2017), and its just funny because its always the same, or at least very similar. So I know what the sentiment is like around the top and the bottom, and what people tend to say.

 

[LordFall]

1 minute ago, vinc3nc said:

@LordFall I don't have time to convince you of why you should invest in anything. It's your job to DYOR. My main issue here was with Leo saying and repeating many times that BTC and crypto were going to crash because of the AI bubble, when BTC was already 55% down from the top and lots of alts were like 85–97% down from their highs.

When things literally can't go much lower because of how much they've already been destroyed, and when youre already like 90% into the bear market, you have a person saying, "crypto is gonna crash."

Ive been through 3 crypto cycles already (since 2017), and its just funny because its always the same, or at least very similar. So I know what the sentiment is like around the top and the bottom, and what people tend to say.

 

Got it man sounds like you're not really comprehending how the global liquidity and macroeconomics work nor are interested in educating yourself. As I've said I read books on this stuff and keep researching and learning more each week. I wish you the best of luck, you'll need it.