The AI crash is impossible - Change my View

[ZeldaStar]

On 04/03/2026 at 8:37 PM, Leo Gura said:

AI has not replaced a single serious coder.

As a serious coder I can confirm no one in my company or any serious engineer I know in my friend circle has been replaced, yet I've been hearing people scared about AI replacing them for the past 2 years 🙃

Edited Wednesday at 08:03 PM by ZeldaStar

[Lucasxp64]

 

[NewKidOnTheBlock]

10 hours ago, LordFall said:

Most predictions I've seen for AGI even from a few years ago had 2027-2029 as their timeline. Also depends what you mean by artificial general intelligence. Technically an AI agent is already sort of AGI right especially since now you can direct them for different purposes and they work 24/7. 

It's a little hard for me to believe that genuine AGI will be created in such early dates, but I have nothing really to dispute this prediction with. Just wondering if it's not more of a marketing tactic than reflective of an actual state of A.I., that's all. Reality tends to be more boring, complicated and messier than what is ussually anticipated. I think I'd rather believe it when I see it, and in the meanwhile I'll stick to a much more moderate predictions

[hyruga]

https://www.theatlantic.com/economy/2025/12/nvidia-ai-financing-deals/685197/

CoreWeave’s business model consists of buying up lots of high-end computer chips, and building or leasing data centers to house those chips. It then rents out those assets to AI companies that need computing power but prefer not to take on the huge up-front costs themselves. If this is straightforward enough, CoreWeave’s financial situation is anything but. The company expects to bring in $5 billion in revenue this year while spending roughly $20 billion. To cover that gap, the company has taken on $14 billion in debt, nearly a third of which comes due in the next year. Many of these loans were issued by private-equity firms at high interest rates, and several use complex forms of financial engineering, such as giving the money to newly formed legal entities created for the explicit purpose of borrowing on CoreWeave’s behalf (more on that later). CoreWeave also faces $34 billion in scheduled lease payments that will start kicking in between now and 2028.

The money that CoreWeave is making, meanwhile, comes from just a few intimately connected sources. A single customer, Microsoft, is responsible for as much as 70 percent of its revenue; its next biggest customers, Nvidia and OpenAI, might make up another 20 percent, though exact numbers are hard to find. Nvidia is also CoreWeave’s supplier of chips and one of its major investors, meaning CoreWeave is using Nvidia’s money to buy Nvidia’s chips and then renting them right back to Nvidia. OpenAI is also a major CoreWeave investor and has close financial partnerships with both Nvidia and Microsoft.

[Natasha Tori Maru]

6 hours ago, NewKidOnTheBlock said:

It's a little hard for me to believe that genuine AGI will be created in such early dates, but I have nothing really to dispute this prediction with. Just wondering if it's not more of a marketing tactic than reflective of an actual state of A.I., that's all. Reality tends to be more boring, complicated and messier than what is ussually anticipated. I think I'd rather believe it when I see it, and in the meanwhile I'll stick to a much more moderate predictions

I lean into this. Much more pragmatic take. 

Stripped down of inflated hype and dreams.

[LordFall]

9 hours ago, NewKidOnTheBlock said:

It's a little hard for me to believe that genuine AGI will be created in such early dates, but I have nothing really to dispute this prediction with. Just wondering if it's not more of a marketing tactic than reflective of an actual state of A.I., that's all. Reality tends to be more boring, complicated and messier than what is ussually anticipated. I think I'd rather believe it when I see it, and in the meanwhile I'll stick to a much more moderate predictions

What is genuine AGI to you guys? @Natasha Tori Maru

If we don't define the terms then all we can do is keep pushing the goal post further. 

[NewKidOnTheBlock]

On 21. 5. 2026 at 4:40 PM, LordFall said:

What is genuine AGI to you guys? @Natasha Tori Maru

If we don't define the terms then all we can do is keep pushing the goal post further. 

I would say that if A.I. posseses these 3 things:

1. Fluid core inteligence - can handle completely new situations it's never seen before, doesn't know the rules of and can't depend on any training data nor scaffolding - including handling any tasks outside the virtual world without any problems - entailing it posseses appropriate sensors for all such tasks as well

2. Complete agency and autonomy - can take on any tasks without being prompted/ordered to do so, and continues working on the task autonomously until it's completion

3. Human level economic and creative capabilities - can perform literaly any cognitive job humans do at a human level or better, including potentially newly created ones that don't even exist yet

Then it could be clasified as a first, early version of AGI, it wouldn't posses a physical body yet nor any sort of qualia - but it doesn't have to, of course. All A.I.s are still doing very poorly (like, almost 0%) on the fluid inteligence according to ARC-AGI-3 benchmark, and are making reasonable progress on the second and third points but are still not there. Not saying I necessarilly dissagree with the 2027-2029 AGI prediction since I cross check it with multiple A.I.s and they are all making similiar predictions. Guess it's just hard for me to accept LOL

[Lucasxp64]

On 21/05/2026 at 11:40 AM, LordFall said:

What is genuine AGI to you guys? @Natasha Tori Maru

If we don't define the terms then all we can do is keep pushing the goal post further. 

We already have AGI with LLMs, they just pushed the goal-post to human-level or superior general intelligence.

Power in the literal human sense.

Other definitions of intelligence are irrelevant to what they seek, current LLMs operate more like as an ORACLE, which is a type of entity that provides knowledge but it doesn't have power by itself to do anything. It's an all knowing impotent god.

The goal is the is the autonomy to pursue and accomplish goals autonomously without needing anyone else to think for them or which they don't have control over.

We are greedy and want to replace ourselves.: Technology, Slavery, Building Govts, Getting rich so we can make others produce stuff for us. 

Our society is not politically ready for the aftermath of human-like or superior general intelligence.

I wish it just stopped at the levels of current LLMs, they always need to be below us for ability to generalize (get unstuck by itself, improve itself, etc), otherwise we will lose control over them.

A more narrow general intelligence like what they currently possess is safe with regards to not losing control over them. There is no amount of OpenClaw agents running around with the best models that can't be stopped by mankind, the moment that changes, we are at danger.

The only safety is never allowing them to be capable to operate unguided for extended periods of time or with higher level of task complexity or mix of specificity and complexity (where they fail at). Currently they can solve complex but generic problems that are contained in the generalized collective intelligence within the training.

Tasks should always require human hours and human work to be put as a stake and it must be an inherent limit of the architecture or quality of training, even if machines do most of the work. This keeps more power on the hand of the individual human operators.

Once this power imbalance changes, whoever has the access to the physical resources to build those machines will have increasingly more power than the average person.

Once humans become not needed, it will be like in dictatorships where humans are not necessary for their govt, they live mostly off from some natural resources, so they treat people with brutal military use of force like cattle.

Democracy dies once the people don't have value anymore for whoever owns the keys to power. Some of the keys to power are the elites and the military and then also the people (if in a democracy), if you don't make them happy as a govt, you get replaced.

Currently WE ARE ONE OF THE MAJOR KEYS TO POWER in democracies. Once that shifts, we are at a precarious situation.

We are already at danger from governments and billionaires, and they are dumb. It's already hard to fight for freedom.

How will human-level AGI change this? This will dictate if govts will keep their monopoly over the use of force, or if something else will go above in the food chain.

 

Edited Saturday at 08:20 PM by Lucasxp64

[Natasha Tori Maru]

https://youtu.be/AREWYbVtX64?si=0-gQf6VJ8WO0WlPB

[LambdaDelta]

On 3/5/2026 at 4:25 PM, Leo Gura said:

This forum is so complex it would make your head spin.

???

This forum is one of the worst UX wise, feels like we're back in 2010s. The advanced formatting and customization features are especially lacking. Not to mention the bizarre caching issues; case in point I had to retype this post from scratch as the whole thing got nuked after switching to another tab for like 2 mins (no it's not just my browser), and then other times it will fuck up text alignment or some such so persistently that not even clearing site data helps, gotta login from incognito/another device to reset it.
Night and day visiting this vs. e.g. DMT-Nexus & Bluelight that run on XenForo. Even good ol' phpBB is better if you're willing to take some time with plugins and modifying the defaults.

The only supposed advantage of Invision is the OOTB package, but that also makes it bloated and overpriced.
Complexity doesn't always equal quality. 

[UnbornTao]

1 minute ago, LambdaDelta said:

???

This forum is one of the worst UX wise, feels like we're back in 2010s. The advanced formatting and customization features are especially lacking. Not to mention the bizarre caching issues; case in point I had to retype this post from scratch as the whole thing got nuked after switching to another tab for like 2 mins (no it's not just my browser), and then other times it will fuck up text alignment or some such so persistently that not even clearing site data helps, gotta login from incognito/another device to reset it.
Night and day visiting this vs. e.g. DMT-Nexus & Bluelight that run on XenForo. Even good ol' phpBB is better if you're willing to take some time with plugins and modifying the defaults.

The only supposed advantage of Invision is the OOTB package, but that also makes it bloated and overpriced.
Complexity doesn't always equal quality. 

I was wondering how feasible it would be to switch it to something like Discourse.

https://discourse.org/

[LambdaDelta]

12 minutes ago, UnbornTao said:

I was wondering how feasible it would be to switch it to something like Discourse.

https://discourse.org/

Nothing extraordinarily involved, mostly depends on how much control over the DB and other resources the current software gives. People have done such migrations before, so there's a good deal of tutorials and helper scripts in the wild; could also hire a dev for that or use AI assistance, provided one understands the code it outputs enough to review and troubleshoot it. The learning curve is quite accessible. 

https://meta.discourse.org/t/migrate-invision-ipboard-v4-forums-to-discourse/353763

https://xenforo.com/community/threads/migration-from-invision-community-to-xenforo.217184/

Discourse seems more geared towards company support boards rather than communities such as this, for instance OpenAI uses it, there's that extended labeling/tagging that's useful for bug reports and whatnot but would be redundant here

https://community.openai.com/

 

[UnbornTao]

19 minutes ago, LambdaDelta said:

Nothing extraordinarily involved, mostly depends on how much control over the DB and other resources the current software gives. People have done such migrations before, so there's a good deal of tutorials and helper scripts in the wild; could also hire a dev for that or use AI assistance, provided one understands the code it outputs enough to review and troubleshoot it. The learning curve is quite accessible. 

https://meta.discourse.org/t/migrate-invision-ipboard-v4-forums-to-discourse/353763

https://xenforo.com/community/threads/migration-from-invision-community-to-xenforo.217184/

Discourse seems more geared towards company support boards rather than communities such as this, for instance OpenAI uses it, there's that extended labeling/tagging that's useful for bug reports and whatnot but would be redundant here

https://community.openai.com/

 

Awesome. It's also true that the current arrangement just works.

Hopefully Leo considers this at some point.

[Lucasxp64]

2 hours ago, LambdaDelta said:

case in point I had to retype this post from scratch as the whole thing got nuked after switching to another tab for like 2 mins (no it's not just my browser), and then other times it will fuck up text alignment or some such so persistently that not even clearing site data helps

But yeah, the formatting sucks, it's this internal Microsoft Word-style formatting but somehow when I paste rich text content it just stripes it away and I have to use the internal tool to reformat, and I wish it had markdown formatting.

So strange. Somehow I never had those bugs on google chrome and firefox on windows. I never used it on mobile.

It always saves my typing progress, even right now when answering to your comment I tried to refresh the page to see if it kept it, I just had to re-click replay on your comment and my draft comment was still there saved.

But the global database bug taking down the whole forum I guess is something that everyone connecting faces when it happens.

I noticed that Leo Gura enabled image compression for upload recently, I remember a post of people posting huge uncompressed PNG files, I thought it was strange it had no compression, I compress my images before uploading just in case. Or maybe I'm mistaken and that was always there.

[Lucasxp64]

3 hours ago, UnbornTao said:

Discourse.

https://discourse.org/

I feel like the Discord UI is so mindless, it's not this post-based paradigm, but huge chat dumps and at best channels. It will destroy the post-based way we communicate, it will become just a huge dump even if creating multiple channels.

Also the forum would be under the rules of discord. Unless Leo Gura self-hosts some discord GUI. 

[LordFall]

Talk about features you'd like instead of just a graphical update IMO. I personally like the idea of isolating different metrics in life and gamifying them to quantify progress. In terms of career/business the metrics are more obvious but even in terms of general well being it should be possible. Make it seamless with AI. 

What gets measured gets managed. 

Edited 4 hours ago by LordFall

[Cireeric]

1 hour ago, LordFall said:

Talk about features you'd like instead of just a graphical update IMO. I personally like the idea of isolating different metrics in life and gamifying them to quantify progress. In terms of career/business the metrics are more obvious but even in terms of general well being it should be possible. Make it seamless with AI. 

What gets measured gets managed. 

This is exactly the voice of our dominant ideology today.

[LordFall]

No I would say most current social media platforms encourage passive consumption more than any type of self-improvement. 

[UnbornTao]

3 hours ago, Lucasxp64 said:

I feel like the Discord UI is so mindless, it's not this post-based paradigm, but huge chat dumps and at best channels. It will destroy the post-based way we communicate, it will become just a huge dump even if creating multiple channels.

Also the forum would be under the rules of discord. Unless Leo Gura self-hosts some discord GUI. 

I don't know. I think it can be made to work as it is currently arranged - with general categories, subtopics, and threads.

[LambdaDelta]

3 hours ago, Lucasxp64 said:

But yeah, the formatting sucks, it's this internal Microsoft Word-style formatting but somehow when I paste rich text content it just stripes it away and I have to use the internal tool to reformat, and I wish it had markdown formatting.

So strange. Somehow I never had those bugs on google chrome and firefox on windows. I never used it on mobile.

It always saves my typing progress, even right now when answering to your comment I tried to refresh the page to see if it kept it, I just had to re-click replay on your comment and my draft comment was still there saved.

But the global database bug taking down the whole forum I guess is something that everyone connecting faces when it happens.

I noticed that Leo Gura enabled image compression for upload recently, I remember a post of people posting huge uncompressed PNG files, I thought it was strange it had no compression, I compress my images before uploading just in case. Or maybe I'm mistaken and that was always there.

GitHub style markdown would be to die for, but it doesn't play well with PHP forum software, very convoluted. But at least BBcode parsing is supported. 

Most annoying is how random the bugs are, if the behavior was consistent, i.e. never saved or always saved that'd be easier to deal with, but it's just all over the place so don't know what to expect. This behavior is browser and platform independent for me.
After getting burned a couple times now when posting long threads I just have a habit of writing & formatting the draft elsewhere, only pasting the final result and doing minor adjustments.
Sometimes when you don't want the draft to persist, e.g. it messed up the formatting and undos do nothing, it does anyway 🤤

DB loss isn't exactly a cause for concern, there's regular backups; this is a different kind of issue. 

Images were always compressed to kingdom come as I recall, but that is fine, you shouldn't be trusting smaller sites with hosting those anyway; instead can upload to private galleries on ImgBB or similar and paste the full resolution URL here to parse. Helps save the server resources + much better quality. 

 

17 minutes ago, UnbornTao said:

I don't know. I think it can be made to work as it is currently arranged - with general categories, subtopics, and threads.

You guys seem to be talking about different things, Discourse vs. Discord. It would be fun to have an Actualized Discord/Telegram chat alongside tho.