The AI crash is impossible - Change my View

[LordFall]

This post is for @Leo Gura and really any other that believe in an AI crash. I will seek to prove that this is basically impossible and AI companies are already in the too big to fail category and ChatGPT moving towards military industrial complex instead of a business to consumer model is a proof of that. 

The whole reshoring manufacturing of America over the next 10 years is based on their tech supremacy. Remember the whole meme of american workers retuning to work in factories? 

Obviously that will not happen and the US will aim to be a robotics and automation leader, which it's already well positioned to do.

A K shaped crash will absolutely happen and will serve in further squeezing the middle class into nothing as their labor becomes literally obsolete.

Leo your idea that AI value is based on AGI is misguided. AI value prop is based on enterprise workforce. The whole overinflated valuation of the market is based on the premise that AI agents can replace human employees en masse. That premise is still up in the air but as someone who works with AI tools and automation daily I'd say it's already a done deal, the macro forces are just too powerful and humans not adaptable enough.

It's also heavily based in the military industrial complex really as you print money to make top tier weapons with which you secure global trade and force countries into doing commerce under your umbrella and get rich off of financialization and exporting the USD. The US has just proved in its Maduro operation and its Iran strikes that their military supremacy is as unchallenged as ever and the whole tech-AI industry fits right into that.

Having said this I would say that claiming that an AI bubble crash is imminent or even likely has a MASSIVE BURDEN OF PROOF under it and I invite anybody to try and make an argument and case for it. 

I'm pretty confident that the corporate layoffs we've been seeing will keep accelerating throughout this year and it's highly likely that Trump and his Tech buddies will introduce some sort of UBI promise this year with the primaries to secure their votes and burry their epstein scandal further. 

[Leo Gura]

1 hour ago, LordFall said:

that AI agents can replace human employees en masse.

That cannot happen without AGI. And they will not create AGI.

This is all part of the hype, which will crash once everyone realizes AGI ain't happening.

These AI companies are Ponzi schemes fueled by promises of AGI.

Edited 2 hours ago by Leo Gura

[LordFall]

Simply not true. AI tools can already be put together to automate simple tasks in common businesses like for example AI receptionists. I would not underestimate how quickly this will spread because of how efficient it is. If I have one dentist as a marketing client servicing 100 of them is a huge expense and will eventually kill margins which is why most marketing agencies have a soft ceilling at around 10M annual revenue. Installing the exact same app across 100 dentists that gets progressively better each month as I enhance it's workflows and new models comes out makes these deployments exponentially scalable. 

It's not foulproof yet but it's already being sold en masse today, I was thinking of getting into that business. Software companies build AI solutions that AI service providers then resell and that same revolution is coming to enterprise software and basically most of the tasks employees do.

Most junior employees are not that useful they do very standardizable tasks. The way LLMs are trained and employees are trained towards reducing errors hopefully towards 0 is a similar framework. 

The biggest bottleneck right now is model hallucination and lack of coherence that previously bottlenecked long term AI Agent deployment but their capacity has already way improved and is doing so by the day.

How much have you played around with these AI models they're way more advanced and useful than they seem. They already reduce workload drastically. I'm starting to use them for boring cashflow businesses but also for my web 3 VR MMORPG passion project. AI agent NPCs in gaming are gonna be a huge revolution and an interesting tangent to the AI boyfriend/girlfriend. You will be able to get an AI girlfriend witch that goes on a multi month long raid with you and remembers all conversations and your daily struggles that you share with her. That same compute memory is gonna be what's used to replace tech workers en masse and soon enough physical workers with robotics en masse. 

There are so many ways to monetize this that I think the lack of product market fit that most of companies are experiencing right now is very close to ending. 

Edited 3 hours ago by LordFall

[Leo Gura]

All those uses are very limited. You will be disappointed by what useful work AI can do.

Sure, it can automate repetitive clerical work.

If you think AI will make a video game for you, you are out of your mind. NPCs dialogue is an insignificant aspect of video games. No one cares about your chat-bot NPC.

AI girlfriend is such a cringe notion.

Yes, of course you can find ways to monetize AI. However the crash is coming fast. You will not monetize it enough to offset its costs to generate.

Edited 3 hours ago by Leo Gura

[LordFall]

Leo I don't know what to tell you man I think think you're basically close to 100% out of the loop on this. 

18 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

If you think AI will make a video game for you, you are out of your mind. NPCs dialogue is an insignificant aspect of video games. No one cares about your chat-bot NPC.

You are already pretty close to being able to create a whole game with physics engine, novel characters, custom gameplay and a logic system off of a single prompt. 

Why do you reduce AI agents's potential in gaming to quirky dialogue? You could make an alternative american Civil war campaign where the confederates somehow allied with Canada and Mexico against the Union and have a whole alternative history plotline with characters that live out a 24 hour storyline with real strategy and twitsts where players log in to take part of an ongoing campaign. So many cool ideas that were never possible beforehand. 

The game I wanna make will simulate a fantasy 15th century europe with active AI agents that operate jobs and labor for a crypto token with a whole simulated economy. That level of game has never been close to being possible before. 

18 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

AI girlfriend is such a cringe notion.

Let's have this conversation again in 5 years when everyone on this forum including you has one. Human relationships are gonna change forever. You're already pretty close to having a companion on your phone that answers your every question and is a more interesting conversation partner than most humans that don't use AI. 

It won't transition to a weird dystopia it'll just empower people to have more intentional relationships on their terms. Human connections will be more powerful than ever. Do you really put human relationships on such a pedestal? A lot of couples you could literally plot their conversations on a flowchart and be accurate in a majority of cases, consciousness has patterns. That's the whole idea of pickup you can go out and have the same conversations over years with 100% different people because conversation threading is pretty similar across people. 

Edited 2 hours ago by LordFall

[bazera]

10 minutes ago, LordFall said:

Let's have this conversation again in 5 years when everyone on this forum including you has one.

What does AI girlfriend even mean? You mean something similar to a movie "her"?

[Leo Gura]

9 minutes ago, LordFall said:

You are already pretty close to being able to create a whole game with physics engine, novel characters, custom gameplay and a logic system off of a single prompt. 

Dude. I am a game developer. I know game development better than 99% of people. What you are talking about is pure hype and nonsense. No AI can create a worthwhile video game. You don't understand how difficult game dev is.

11 minutes ago, LordFall said:

Let's have this conversation again in 5 years when everyone on this forum including you has one.

I would rather be dead than have an AI girlfriend.

[aurum]

I don't know If there will be a huge crash per se, but I know many of these big AI companies are overhyped right now.

They will not create AGI any time soon. These CEOs are betting on that scaling compute is enough, and it very clearly isn't. They need that to be true, because that theory is what fueled the success of these companies in the first place. We got GPT-3 and the other current LLMs because of scaling. If scaling doesn't work moving forward, they are cooked. 

What we have instead is a non-intelligent tool (LLMs) that appear useful in some limited contexts such as coding, customer service and brute-force calculation. But this does not justify the insane amount of money coming into these companies.

These companies are investing in infrastructure assuming trillions in revenue over the next couple of years from AGI. This is laughable. They are in way over their heads with their own investments. 

All this infrastructure may later turn out to be useful once it's already built, but either way that doesn't mean it isn't going to crash on them before that happens. It very well could.

[Peo]

22 minutes ago, LordFall said:

Let's have this conversation again in 5 years when everyone on this forum including you has one. Human relationships are gonna change forever. You're already pretty close to having a companion on your phone that answers your every question and is a more interesting conversation partner than most humans that don't use AI. 

Bruh a AI girlfriend on your phone is kinda cringe. How can an AI on phone be more interesting then a real life human partner? 

You can't feel the touch of human skin on your phone. How are you supposed to have sex with your AI girlfriend on your phone. 

[Leo Gura]

3 minutes ago, Peo said:

How are you supposed to have sex with your AI girlfriend on your phone. 

You buy a pet goat and strap your phone to her head.

21st century technology!

[LordFall]

38 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

Dude. I am a game developer. I know game development better than 99% of people. What you are talking about is pure hype and nonsense. No AI can create a worthwhile video game. You don't understand how difficult game dev is.

I mean we have to define the nature of the argument we're having in regards to game dev. All I'm saying is AI agents and AI generative graphics will massively enhance what a single or a small team of developers can do. Really good thing for that industry as well as Movies/Anime that can now be done by a few creative individuals instead of being gatekepts by the big studios that produce mass mass market nonsense. 

37 minutes ago, aurum said:

I don't know If there will be a huge crash per se, but I know many of these big AI companies are overhyped right now.

They will not create AGI any time soon. These CEOs are betting on that scaling compute is enough, and it very clearly isn't. They need that to be true, because that theory is what fueled the success of these companies in the first place. We got GPT-3 and the other current LLMs because of scaling. If scaling doesn't work moving forward, they are cooked. 

What we have instead is a non-intelligent tool (LLMs) that appear useful in some limited contexts such as coding, customer service and brute-force calculation. But this does not justify the insane amount of money coming into these companies.

These companies are investing in infrastructure assuming trillions in revenue over the next couple of years from AGI. This is laughable. They are in way over their heads with their own investments. 

All this infrastructure may later turn out to be useful once it's already built, but either way that doesn't mean it isn't going to crash on them before that happens. It very well could.

Also have to define what we have by AGI like what is the benchmarks that qualifies as such for you guys? We aren't even close to what massive increases in compute would do with the current architecture that we have today let alone the pile of cutting edge frameworks that have not been implemented yet like Spiking Neural Networks, Liquid Neural Networks and Hyperdimensional Computing. 

There is just no way that we will see a crash in the likes of the 2008 subprime crash. It's just a different sector of the economy the cascading effects of a few tech companies going bankrupt wouldn't have nearly as big of an effect. The 2020 covid crash tanked the S&P 500 30% in a few weeks and halted the whole global economy and the recovery was swift, any AI crash would be much smaller then that. 

23 minutes ago, Peo said:

Bruh a AI girlfriend on your phone is kinda cringe. How can an AI on phone be more interesting then a real life human partner? 

You can't feel the touch of human skin on your phone. How are you supposed to have sex with your AI girlfriend on your phone. 

It's not an or but an and. You can have "sex" with porn just fine right? People will pursue real companions alongside real ones and that will be a new dynamic to navigate and some people will replace it entirely. 

This is not a hypothetical btw. Apparently a third of american teenagers have tried an AI relationship and over 500,000,000 people in china are in some form of emotional support relationship with a platform. I mean it also changes the definition of girlfriend, you mean someone who you fuck or someone who is part of your daily life? I don't consider Google my girlfirend but I tell gemini a lot about my states of mind and ideas and goals and dreams for the future and it remember them and gives me its thoughts daily. 

Also consider that the next big consumer platform is augmented reality glasses. So you will have even your AI platonic as a human character that is in the room "physically" with you and could literally go walk down the street with you or go to the club. The transition will be pretty seemless from an agent that you consult on your marketing strategy to your accounting strategy to what outfit suits you better to what you should eat to sitting with you in the restaurant. Whether you choose to call that agent your partner and entangle it in your sex life is up to you but I would seriously bet that pretty much all of us will. 

That's just one type of alternative relationship that is gonna keep growing. I would call the onlyfans girls phenomena a relationship dynamic of its own, its human woman selling the visuals and idea of her sexuality and intimacy to masses of male and a tech platform facilitating the exchange. 

There is also couples that fuck eachother and others on camera and financialize their lifestyle that way instead of fitting into a regular corporate/social structure. Prime example Lena the plug and Adam 22. It's a direct result of tech platforms allowing their relationship to unfold in different ways. 

21t century is the century of abundance. Abundance of money, abundance of relationship potential. Of course to the average conservative it's doomsday but I mean to each their own version of utopia. 

You have more freedom than ever as an individual. And you are pretty much now today at the point where you can ask Claude code help me build a $1M/year revenue lifestyle freedom business and it'll work with you daily to achieve it. 

 

Edited 2 hours ago by LordFall

[Michal__]

I tested it with game dev (cursor). It's a pain in the ass. Many facepalm moments..

[Peo]

14 minutes ago, LordFall said:

You can have "sex" with porn just fine right?

No. Porn is not the same.

15 minutes ago, LordFall said:

Apparently a third of american teenagers have tried an AI relationship and over 500,000,000 people in china are in some form of emotional support relationship with a platform. I mean it also changes the definition of girlfriend, you mean someone who you fuck or someone who is part of your daily life? I don't consider Google my girlfirend but I tell gemini a lot about my states of mind and ideas and goals and dreams for the future and it remember them and gives me its thoughts daily.

Great for them then. I will go and talk to real life girls, I enjoy the challange. 

My hope is that it might lower the competition in dating market, when more guys are home in their man cave with their AI girlfriend. More women for me then.

[LordFall]

Well yeah you can pretty much guarantee it turns the dating market even more hypergamous and polyamory takes over especially combined with the K shaped recovery that I mentioned in the original post. It's a good thing if you're a motivated man, the average man is doing worse than ever so might as well date many women I agree. 

[aurum]

28 minutes ago, LordFall said:

Also have to define what we have by AGI like what is the benchmarks that qualifies as such for you guys? We aren't even close to what massive increases in compute would do with the current architecture that we have today let alone the pile of cutting edge frameworks that have not been implemented yet like Spiking Neural Networks, Liquid Neural Networks and Hyperdimensional Computing. 

There is just no way that we will see a crash in the likes of the 2008 subprime crash. It's just a different sector of the economy the cascading effects of a few tech companies going bankrupt wouldn't have nearly as big of an effect. The 2020 covid crash tanked the S&P 500 30% in a few weeks and halted the whole global economy and the recovery was swift, any AI crash would be much smaller then that

For the purposes of debating whether a crash will happen, it should be considered AGI when it can replace and even do a better job than humans. This is what these companies are betting on, not just cool LLMs.

You’re right that we have not seen what massive amounts of compute will do yet. This is my prediction based on how I understand intelligence. Scaling compute will fail.

In the future, people may wise up and invest in other strategies. But right now, scaling is the dominant strategy. And it’s an increasingly failing one.

This is not just my opinion either. This is the opinion of many serious AI researchers who understand the technical details better than I do.

The crash could be serious for the economy because so much is being propped up by investments in AI right now. Whether or not it will be as big as 2008, I don’t know.

[LordFall]

I think we've already started going towards post labor economics we just have to define a debate on how quickly it'll affect unemployment rates and if UBI systems will be in place.

Alex Karp CEO of Palentir is already talking about nationalization of AI and the Canadian Senate is going over UBI bills right now with Bill S-206 so it is a known issue that's already in process.

https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1rkavqr/ceo_of_palantir_youre_stupid_if_you_do_not_think/

https://x.com/SulkinMaya/status/2028866859756408867

https://www.parl.ca/legisinfo/en/bill/45-1/s-206

 

Edited 1 hour ago by LordFall

[Leo Gura]

The crash will especially kill crypto.

Legit businesses will survive.

Edited 1 hour ago by Leo Gura

[AION]

Current AI doesn't claim to replace human intelligence. Even if it doesn't reach human intelligence, it still has a lot of use cases to disrupt things and stay. I think Leo is afraid to be replaced by AI. It is a legit fear that people have but let's be honest 90% of what you do can be replaced by machines. For me it means I have more time to focus on the 10% where I can make a difference. People need update their paradigm. No need to depend on horses while there are cars out there. Yes you can have a horse around for the shits and giggles but that is a different story.

[Leo Gura]

3 minutes ago, AION said:

Current AI doesn't claim to replace human intelligence.

Yes it does. Sam Altman was touting how GPT5 is equivalent to human PhDs.

They actually believe this shit.

No AI will ever replace me. These tech bros can only dream of replacing me.

Edited 1 hour ago by Leo Gura

[LordFall]

10 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

The crash will especially kill crypto.

Legit businesses will survive.

Not a chance. Crypto is being integrated into the US banking and financial system as we speak and is a big part of how the current administration is working to preserve US global financialization. Clarity Act is gonna pass the US senate at any time now.

Stable Coin companies own a massive about of US Treasuries and they are in deep with the administration which just gained control of the federal reserve. Trump is gonna print massive amounts of cash to fund his new war and pump the shit out of crypto to make his family trillionaires. I would absolutely get into the crypto market right now, mark my words and hold me accountable to the price of Bitcoin $73K USD today being way higher 6 months from now September 4th 2026. 

Edited 1 hour ago by LordFall