The AI crash is impossible - Change my View

[LordFall]

This post is for @Leo Gura and really any other that believe in an AI crash. I will seek to prove that this is basically impossible and AI companies are already in the too big to fail category and ChatGPT moving towards military industrial complex instead of a business to consumer model is a proof of that. 

The whole reshoring manufacturing of America over the next 10 years is based on their tech supremacy. Remember the whole meme of american workers retuning to work in factories? 

Obviously that will not happen and the US will aim to be a robotics and automation leader, which it's already well positioned to do.

A K shaped crash will absolutely happen and will serve in further squeezing the middle class into nothing as their labor becomes literally obsolete.

Leo your idea that AI value is based on AGI is misguided. AI value prop is based on enterprise workforce. The whole overinflated valuation of the market is based on the premise that AI agents can replace human employees en masse. That premise is still up in the air but as someone who works with AI tools and automation daily I'd say it's already a done deal, the macro forces are just too powerful and humans not adaptable enough.

It's also heavily based in the military industrial complex really as you print money to make top tier weapons with which you secure global trade and force countries into doing commerce under your umbrella and get rich off of financialization and exporting the USD. The US has just proved in its Maduro operation and its Iran strikes that their military supremacy is as unchallenged as ever and the whole tech-AI industry fits right into that.

Having said this I would say that claiming that an AI bubble crash is imminent or even likely has a MASSIVE BURDEN OF PROOF under it and I invite anybody to try and make an argument and case for it. 

I'm pretty confident that the corporate layoffs we've been seeing will keep accelerating throughout this year and it's highly likely that Trump and his Tech buddies will introduce some sort of UBI promise this year with the primaries to secure their votes and burry their epstein scandal further. 

[Leo Gura]

1 hour ago, LordFall said:

that AI agents can replace human employees en masse.

That cannot happen without AGI. And they will not create AGI.

This is all part of the hype, which will crash once everyone realizes AGI ain't happening.

These AI companies are Ponzi schemes fueled by promises of AGI.

Edited 6 minutes ago by Leo Gura

[LordFall]

Simply not true. AI tools can already be put together to automate simple tasks in common businesses like for example AI receptionists. I would not underestimate how quickly this will spread because of how efficient it is. If I have one dentist as a marketing client servicing 100 of them is a huge expense and will eventually kill margins which is why most marketing agencies have a soft ceilling at around 10M annual revenue. Installing the exact same app across 100 dentists that gets progressively better each month as I enhance it's workflows and new models comes out makes these deployments exponentially scalable. 

It's not foulproof yet but it's already being sold en masse today, I was thinking of getting into that business. Software companies build AI solutions that AI service providers then resell and that same revolution is coming to enterprise software and basically most of the tasks employees do.

Most junior employees are not that useful they do very standardizable tasks. The way LLMs are trained and employees are trained towards reducing errors hopefully towards 0 is a similar framework. 

The biggest bottleneck right now is model hallucination and lack of coherence that previously bottlenecked long term AI Agent deployment but their capacity has already way improved and is doing so by the day.

How much have you played around with these AI models they're way more advanced and useful than they seem. They already reduce workload drastically. I'm starting to use them for boring cashflow businesses but also for my web 3 VR MMORPG passion project. AI agent NPCs in gaming are gonna be a huge revolution and an interesting tangent to the AI boyfriend/girlfriend. You will be able to get an AI girlfriend witch that goes on a multi month long raid with you and remembers all conversations and your daily struggles that you share with her. That same compute memory is gonna be what's used to replace tech workers en masse and soon enough physical workers with robotics en masse. 

There are so many ways to monetize this that I think the lack of product market fit that most of companies are experiencing right now is very close to ending. 

Edited 53 minutes ago by LordFall

[Leo Gura]

All those uses are very limited. You will be disappointed by what useful work AI can do.

Sure, it can automate repetitive clerical work.

If you think AI will make a video game for you, you are out of your mind. NPCs dialogue is an insignificant aspect of video games. No one cares about your chat-bot NPC.

AI girlfriend is such a cringe notion.

Yes, of course you can find ways to monetize AI. However the crash is coming fast. You will not monetize it enough to offset its costs to generate.

Edited 43 minutes ago by Leo Gura

[LordFall]

Leo I don't know what to tell you man I think think you're basically close to 100% out of the loop on this. 

18 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

If you think AI will make a video game for you, you are out of your mind. NPCs dialogue is an insignificant aspect of video games. No one cares about your chat-bot NPC.

You are already pretty close to being able to create a whole game with physics engine, novel characters, custom gameplay and a logic system off of a single prompt. 

Why do you reduce AI agents's potential in gaming to quirky dialogue? You could make an alternative american Civil war campaign where the confederates somehow allied with Canada and Mexico against the Union and have a whole alternative history plotline with characters that live out a 24 hour storyline with real strategy and twitsts where players log in to take part of an ongoing campaign. So many cool ideas that were never possible beforehand. 

The game I wanna make will simulate a fantasy 15th century europe with active AI agents that operate jobs and labor for a crypto token with a whole simulated economy. That level of game has never been close to being possible before. 

18 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

AI girlfriend is such a cringe notion.

Let's have this conversation again in 5 years when everyone on this forum including you has one. Human relationships are gonna change forever. You're already pretty close to having a companion on your phone that answers your every question and is a more interesting conversation partner than most humans that don't use AI. 

It won't transition to a weird dystopia it'll just empower people to have more intentional relationships on their terms. Human connections will be more powerful than ever. Do you really put human relationships on such a pedestal? A lot of couples you could literally plot their conversations on a flowchart and be accurate in a majority of cases, consciousness has patterns. That's the whole idea of pickup you can go out and have the same conversations over years with 100% different people because conversation threading is pretty similar across people. 

Edited 25 minutes ago by LordFall

[bazera]

10 minutes ago, LordFall said:

Let's have this conversation again in 5 years when everyone on this forum including you has one.

What does AI girlfriend even mean? You mean something similar to a movie "her"?

[Leo Gura]

9 minutes ago, LordFall said:

You are already pretty close to being able to create a whole game with physics engine, novel characters, custom gameplay and a logic system off of a single prompt. 

Dude. I am a game developer. I know game development better than 99% of people. What you are talking about is pure hype and nonsense. No AI can create a worthwhile video game. You don't understand how difficult game dev is.

11 minutes ago, LordFall said:

Let's have this conversation again in 5 years when everyone on this forum including you has one.

I would rather be dead than have an AI girlfriend.

[aurum]

I don't know If there will be a huge crash per se, but I know many of these big AI companies are overhyped right now.

They will not create AGI any time soon. These CEOs are betting on that scaling compute is enough, and it very clearly isn't. They need that to be true, because that theory is what fueled the success of these companies in the first place. We got GPT-3 and the other current LLMs because of scaling. If scaling doesn't work moving forward, they are cooked. 

What we have instead is a non-intelligent tool (LLMs) that appear useful in some limited contexts such as coding, customer service and brute-force calculation. But this does not justify the insane amount of money coming into these companies.

These companies are investing in infrastructure assuming trillions in revenue over the next couple of years from AGI. This is laughable. They are in way over their heads with their own investments. 

All this infrastructure may later turn out to be useful once it's already built, but either way that doesn't mean it isn't going to crash on them before that happens. It very well could.

[Peo]

22 minutes ago, LordFall said:

Let's have this conversation again in 5 years when everyone on this forum including you has one. Human relationships are gonna change forever. You're already pretty close to having a companion on your phone that answers your every question and is a more interesting conversation partner than most humans that don't use AI. 

Bruh a AI girlfriend on your phone is kinda cringe. How can an AI on phone be more interesting then a real life human partner? 

You can't feel the touch of human skin on your phone. How are you supposed to have sex with your AI girlfriend on your phone.