Israel launches attack on Iran

[GroovyGuru]

27 minutes ago, LordFall said:

I haven’t followed this thread but to steel-man Israel you don’t think that stopping an Islamic state from enriching Uranium is a valid pretence for attacking them? 

I know Islam is demonized by the mainstream but is martyrdom part of the faith and dying to destroy your enemies seen as honourable? 

I was very nervous from the Pakistan and Indian conflict escalating, glad they settled down.

This has absolutely nothing to do with Islam. Making claims that Iran are crazy radical Islamic terrorists who are chomping at the bit to nuke Israel is just a low-IQ and ignorant take. These are the propaganda talking points that neo-cons and and war hawks use, and also people who just don't know ANYTHING about the situation. We live in 2025. Iran is a nation state that has relations with other countries and engages in trade, diplomacy, security and military interactions, other economic interactions, and so forth. All of this is to say, yes they are a theocracy, but that does not mean they don't operate like any other country, and that they have an ambition to blow up the world to reach paradise. Also, if Iran wanted to drop a nuke on Israel, they could have built one and done it already. Nothing is stopping them. Iran is the one who has been trying to negotiate this entire time, and seek a deal through diplomacy and without violence. You guys need to get this deeply ingrained propaganda about Islam out of your heads. The problem is, you have many types of Islam expressed throughout the Middle East, and ignorant people who don't understand the situation and context like to paint them all with a broad brush. I will say it once again, throughout this entire process, Iran has been the most level-headed and peaceful party involved in this conflict. Time and time again they have met at the negotiating table. It is the US who has backstabbed them, and Israel, a completely bloodthirsty country who will stop at nothing until this regime is deposed, who seek violence and escalation. 

[PurpleTree]

I’d trust Iran (as a society) more with having nukes than lets say Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, Iraq and so on.

[GroovyGuru]

People worried about Iran using nukes are just not understanding the situation we are in. This is not a threat. What is ACTUALLY a possibility at this point is Israel and the US using nukes against Iran! At the very least, if things continue to escalate, they will use massive bombs against the Fordow nuclear fortress.

[Raze]

Israel knows Iran would never use nukes if it had them, they’d be immediately vaporized. Israel fears Iran with nukes won’t be able to ever be deposed and can continue doing proxy activities against them without any ability for Israel to threaten to try and escalate until it can drag the US in to depose them. 
Israelis also can’t psychologically accept that they’ll never not face resistance while occupying Palestinians so they always have to project that all the resistance comes from a foreign power and if they just destroyed them they’d have peace. 

US knows the same, if they really feared it they would stop rejecting the Middle East nuclear weapons free zone initiative, but they block it because it would require israel also give up its nukes.

Iran wants to maintain enrichment so it has the ability to potentially make nukes as a way to get a deal to lower sanctions so they don’t end up like North Korea which is permanently strangled, but also don’t want to totally give up their ability so they don’t end up like Saddam or Gadaffi who the US deposed since they didn’t have nukes.

Israel somehow convinced trump to demand Iran agree to no enrichment for any deal knowing it’s a poison pill to negotiations, as a way to get trump to let them have the go ahead to strike.

Now that israel declared war on Iran their goal is probably 

- get the international public distracted from Gaza to further or complete the ethnic cleansing

- revive Netanyahu’s political career and support base by exploiting Israeli bloodlust and getting them to rally around the flag 

- get Iran to rush to make a nuclear weapon to spur US entering the war

- get the US to feel it’s in too deep and spur them to enter to try and further destroy their capabilities 

- trigger state collapse a la Syria

What Iran is trying to do is drag things out until the US agrees to tell Israel to ceasefire and return to negotiations, with the unsaid threat being if the US enters they’ll strike gulf states oil infrastructure and close the strait of Hormuz radically increasing oil prices which contracts the world economy, as well as fire on all the vulnerable US targets they can reach in the region. 

They may do that anyway if they feel like dragging it out isn’t working and israel outlasts them as a way to go for broke to try and drag the US in themselves to create a Afghanistan scenario hoping to drag it out perhaps much longer and reconstitute from within a foreign occupation.

If the US is dragged in Iran will be a failed state and China and Russia will try to prop it up to drag the US deeper so it expends more resources, and use that time to expand their spheres of influence with the US bogged down in the Middle East and possibly complete the takeovers of Ukraine and Taiwan. Iran being a failed state similar to what happened in iraq would spread to neighboring regions such as Qatar, Pakistan, Iraq and Syria.

Trump could potentially use the war as justification for a crack down on civil liberties and his political opponents possibly to remain in office beyond his term. There is some indication he’s testing for that as seen as how he used ice to arrest and try to deport immigrants for criticizing Israel and using the US military to tamp down protests in LA.

Long term I think the biggest risk of that would be

- Civil war and balkanization in the US 

- destabilized nuclear Pakistan entering into a larger conflict with India, Muslim population of India at genocide risk (there have been examples of race riots and talk they are threat working with Pakistan)

- US backed dictators in the Middle East deposed while Israel’s population becomes more extreme leading to a existential war and Israel using the Samson option 

Edited June 17 by Raze

[GroovyGuru]

@Raze Nice analysis

[PurpleTree]

21 minutes ago, Raze said:

Israel knows Iran would never use nukes if it had them, they’d be immediately vaporized. Israel fears Iran with nukes won’t be able to ever be deposed and can continue doing proxy activities against them without any ability for Israel to threaten to try and escalate until it can drag the US in to depose them. US knows the same, if they really feared it they would stop rejecting the Middle East nuclear weapons free zone initiative, but they block it because it would require israel also give up its nukes.

Iran wants to maintain enrichment so it has the ability to potentially make nukes as a way to get a deal to lower sanctions so they don’t end up like North Korea which is permanently strangled, but also don’t want to totally give up their ability so they don’t end up like Saddam or Gadaffi who the US deposed since they didn’t have nukes.

Israel somehow convinced trump to demand Iran agree to no enrichment for any deal knowing it’s a poison pill to negotiations, as a way to get trump to let them have the go ahead to strike.

Now that israel declared war on Iran their goal is probably 

- get the international public distracted from Gaza to further or complete the ethnic cleansing

- revive Netanyahu’s political career and support base by exploiting Israeli bloodlust and getting them to rally around the flag 

- get Iran to rush to make a nuclear weapon to spur US entering the war

- get the US to feel it’s in too deep and spur them to enter to try and further destroy their capabilities 

- trigger state collapse a la Syria 

What Iran is trying to do is drag things out until the US agrees to tell Israel to ceasefire and return to negotiations, with the unsaid threat being if the US enters they’ll strike gulf states oil infrastructure and close the strait of Hormuz radically increasing oil prices. 

They may do that anyway if they feel like dragging it out isn’t working and israel outlasts them as a way to go for broke to try and drag the US in themselves to create a Afghanistan scenario hoping to drag it out perhaps much longer and reconstitute from within a foreign occupation.

In a way it could be like Russia. For example Russia is intimating countries, influencing politics in Europe and elsewhere. Supporting anti EU propaganda, and parties who are anti EU in Europe. Destabilising governments and the EU. And nobody can do anything because they have the nukes. 

[PurpleTree]

15 minutes ago, PurpleTree said:

In a way it could be like Russia. For example Russia is intimating countries, influencing politics in Europe and elsewhere. Supporting anti EU propaganda, and parties who are anti EU in Europe. Destabilising governments and the EU. And nobody can do anything because they have the nukes. 

Usually people on the fringes they support. Like Le Pen in France. AfD in Germany. Maybe Brexit. Fun times.

[Lyubov]

3 hours ago, PurpleTree said:

I’d trust Iran (as a society) more with having nukes than lets say Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, Iraq and so on.

Really? Why? Iran is NOT a country that should have nukes. 

[GroovyGuru]

5 minutes ago, Lyubov said:

Really? Why? Iran is NOT a country that should have nukes. 

Israel has nukes. Do you not understand that Israel cannot be the only power in the region with nukes? If you want the middle east to be more balanced and stable, how would you achieve that by equipping the most expansionist and extremist country in the region with nuclear weapons, while not allowing the adversaries of that country to also posses weapons that will contain them and limit their ability to enforce their will with impunity. How does this possibly make for the best scenario?

[Lyubov]

3 minutes ago, GroovyGuru said:

Israel has nukes. Do you not understand that Israel cannot be the only power in the region with nukes? If you want the middle east to be more balanced and stable, how would you achieve that by equipping the most expansionist and extremist country in the region with nuclear weapons, while not allowing the adversaries of that country to also posses weapons that will contain them and limit their ability to enforce their will with impunity. How does this possibly make for the best scenario?

I do not see how arguing for Iran to have nukes makes it better either. This situation is fucked. I see no clear solution forward. Research deep into the ideology and statecraft of Iran. Maybe it sounds dismissive but it's almost silly to suggest Iran with nukes would lead to peace. Their entire state is built on the idea of wiping Israel off the map. 

[hundreth]

2 minutes ago, Lyubov said:

I do not see how arguing for Iran to have nukes makes it better either. This situation is fucked. I see no clear solution forward. Research deep into the ideology and statecraft of Iran. Maybe it sounds dismissive but it's almost silly to suggest Iran with nukes would lead to peace. Their entire state is built on the idea of wiping Israel off the map. 

They just hand wave that away as propaganda.

[PurpleTree]

17 minutes ago, Lyubov said:

Really? Why? Iran is NOT a country that should have nukes. 

Because i feel as a society they are a bit more civilised, open, diligent, „smart“ , democratic etc. than those others although could be biased. For example many Iranian emigrants are doctors etc. Not talking about the government but society. Nukes will still be there after governments change. MBS is already scary imo and even worse people could come after him.

[GroovyGuru]

5 minutes ago, Lyubov said:

I do not see how arguing for Iran to have nukes makes it better either. This situation is fucked. I see no clear solution forward. Research deep into the ideology and statecraft of Iran. Maybe it sounds dismissive but it's almost silly to suggest Iran with nukes would lead to peace. Their entire state is built on the idea of wiping Israel off the map. 

I'm not necessarily saying it would lead to peace, I'm saying it would reign Israel in and make them think twice about every decision they make. There is no disputing that. If Iran well and truly wanted to nuke Israel and take them off the map, why don't they just build a weapon and do it already? Why haven't they done it? Instead of negotiating and trying to make deals, just make the bomb and take them off the map if that's what you really want. It's actually Israel that is trying to take Iran off the map right now, which just justifies to Iran why they need a nuke. Hello!!!

Edited June 17 by GroovyGuru

[Lyubov]

8 minutes ago, PurpleTree said:

Because i feel as a society they are a bit more civilised, open, diligent, „smart“ , democratic etc. than those others although could be biased. For example many Iranian emigrants are doctors etc. Not talking about the government but society. Nukes will still be there after governments change. MBS is already scary imo and even worse people could come after him.

Dude, Saudi Arabia WILL go after nukes if Iran has them. So will Turkey. Nuclear proliferation. This is the gamble, do more nukes in the region create deterrence? OR a more likely scenario where they get used OR states act cocky and think they can do anything (Russia). Imagine a Nuke'd up Iran. They would fund the shit out of Hezbollah and other proxies and sit back, no one can fuck with them. I see no evidence Iran with nukes will somehow lead to peace. At the same time... here we are in reality and there is tension and fighting... I really don't know what the way forward is with this. 

Edited June 17 by Lyubov

[Lyubov]

There is no goddamn way Iran with Nukes is any better than what is going on now...

[PurpleTree]

2 minutes ago, Lyubov said:

Dude, Saudi Arabia WILL go after nukes if Iran has them. So will Turkey. Nuclear proliferation. This is the gamble, do more nukes in the region create deterrence? OR a more likely scenario where they get used OR states act cocky and think they can do anything (Russia). Imagine a Nuke'd up Iran. They would fund the shit out of Hezbollah and other proxies and sit back, no one can fuck with them. I see no evidence Iran with nukes will somehow lead to peace. At the same time... here we are in reality and there is tension and fighting... I really don't know what the way forward is with this. 

Dude i said i‘d rather have Iran have nukes than Saudi, Iraq, Qatar, Egypt etc nothing else.

[Lyubov]

1 minute ago, PurpleTree said:

Dude i said i‘d rather have Iran have nukes than Saudi, Iraq, Qatar, Egypt etc nothing else.

Saudi Arabia hates Iran and is mortal enemies with them and if Iran has nukes SA will 1000% go after their own creating even more potential for war. 

[Raze]

[hundreth]

13 minutes ago, GroovyGuru said:

I'm not necessarily saying it would lead to peace, I'm saying it would reign Israel in and make them think twice about every decision they make. There is no disputing that. If Iran well and truly wanted to nuke Israel and take them off the map, why don't they just build a weapon and do it already? Why haven't they done it? Instead of negotiating and trying to make deals, just make the bomb and take them off the map if that's what you really want. It's actually Israel that is trying to take Iran off the map right now, which just justifies to Iran why they need a nuke. Hello!!!

Yeah, and if my grandmother had wheels she would be a bike. Because they can't and are not allowed to. 

[Raze]

 

Edited June 17 by Raze