India-Pakistan Conflict Mega-Thread

[PurpleTree]

On 2025-05-12 at 2:23 PM, Ramanujan said:

this is bad. we will never know peace if india is split into many parts. those parts become weak. west will try to enslave one country after another . we wiill just be slaves of the west. India together is strong enough to resist the west. India have no military base of the US.

Together we are strong and peaceful . Divided , we will never know peace

 

Does the west enslave Vietnam, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Nepal etc. all smaller countries in the region?

Nope the west doesn’t care about you relax.

[Harikrishnan]

1 hour ago, PurpleTree said:

Does the west enslave Vietnam, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Nepal etc. all smaller countries in the region?

Nope the west doesn’t care about you relax.

Its not simple as that, US do care about it, they care about china becoming bigger superpower than them, they do care about One road initiative, thats why they support baloch in bombing chinese there, they did the whole coupe in bangladesh. 

[Harikrishnan]

Meanwhile lets see this 

 

[PurpleTree]

5 minutes ago, Harikrishnan said:

Its not simple as that, US do care about it, they care about china becoming bigger superpower than them, they do care about One road initiative, thats why they support baloch in bombing chinese there, they did the whole coupe in bangladesh. 

Ok well then you should say the US and not the West. Also India probably doesn’t want China to be so far ahead and the sole superpower.

[zazen]

5 hours ago, kbone said:

@zazen 

If you have time today, could you find if there's actual validity to the Kirana Hills nuclear leak?  -TIA

There’s lots of speculation about it, but nothing verified and I don’t think we’d ever find out due to national security. Same reasoning behind the S-400 defence system being hit in India. India wouldn’t want to let them know as it shatters there deterrence and narrative of dominance. Both incidents allows both parties to strategise for around their weaknesses for any future adventure.

The more I listen to both sides on X the less I feel I know lol. Cant fully trust the biased takes. It seems pretty conclusive that 1 Rafael was downed - without it even entering Pakistani airspace. That’s sent reverberations around military circles for sure.

Sharp kid:

Just like with Israel, I don’t see how either side can come to compromise on something that for each side poses a literal national security risk.

For Israel it’s that if a Palestinian state exists in West Bank - they have a vantage point looking down into Israel. Israel basically becomes a fish in a bowl to be targeted. With Kashmir, Pakistan depends enormously on the water from there - thus it can’t allow India that territory as they can weaponise it - which they already are.

With a massive trust deficit in both situations, neither side will risk compromising their national security. 

[Hsinav]

On 2025-05-07 at 4:03 PM, Husseinisdoingfine said:

Rajneesh was the only one with the correct position. 

 

He was prepared to fight with heavy weapons to maintain his community in the 90s. 

[kbone]

@zazen Aces. Thanks a lot for helping verify that it's not verified, hehe. Yeah, once these hyper-iased counter-narratives start to roll, it's hard to keep up.

I'm with the kid, and yes, it's nice to see someone that young taking a balanced view. And Bihar is renown for being one of the poorer per capita states (if not THE poorest) in India, so it's great to see a sharp young'un from there not taking too much of the bait.

Thanks again, good sir.

[Harikrishnan]

6 hours ago, zazen said:

There’s lots of speculation about it, but nothing verified and I don’t think we’d ever find out due to national security. Same reasoning behind the S-400 defence system being hit in India. India wouldn’t want to let them know as it shatters there deterrence and narrative of dominance. Both incidents allows both parties to strategise for around their weaknesses for any future adventure.

The more I listen to both sides on X the less I feel I know lol. Cant fully trust the biased takes. It seems pretty conclusive that 1 Rafael was downed - without it even entering Pakistani airspace. That’s sent reverberations around military circles for sure.

Sharp kid:

Just like with Israel, I don’t see how either side can come to compromise on something that for each side poses a literal national security risk.

For Israel it’s that if a Palestinian state exists in West Bank - they have a vantage point looking down into Israel. Israel basically becomes a fish in a bowl to be targeted. With Kashmir, Pakistan depends enormously on the water from there - thus it can’t allow India that territory as they can weaponise it - which they already are.

With a massive trust deficit in both situations, neither side will risk compromising their national security. 

S-400 was not hit, yesterday modi visited same site, where pakistan said to have hit and there is background of S-400 there. That was subtle of India. One rafael may have been downed, IAF is not that good as PAF, as later was trained by US and Nato.  For India Kashmir is a key strategic point, it can’t be given away, and that to a neighbour who want to see India destroyed, what are they gonna do with kashmir, gift to china like they did some part of it earlier. 
also its said Kashmir was playground of Indian spirituality, where it rise. 

[Harikrishnan]

From Twitter, dont know if its True.

[Ajay0]

India has comfortably cruised to its sixth consecutive victory over Pakistan. 

Cruise missile atacks on 11  Pakistani air bases destroyed much of their infrastructure and aviation assets leaving them operationally non-functional. Pakistani air defences and radars and an AWACS had also been taken out which meant that it had no defence against Indian jet attacks.

It was at this point that Pakistan ended its retaliatory posturing and immediately called up the US and Saudi Arabia to persuade India to a cease-fire.

India, having attained its strategic objectives, agreed to the cease-fire.

Since Pakistan is noted for its military coups transplanting its democratic governments with military dictatorships, this new heavy defeat will greatly reduce the prestige and influence of the Pakistani military, ensuring no military coups and military dictatorships for the time being. 

[zazen]

@Harikrishnan Already debunked as fake due to many spelling mistakes. ''During toutine maintainence'' and ''Pollowing initial containment'' and the last line ''for queries contact lirector'' lol. Lots of propaganda out there on both sides we gotta be careful of.

Modi stood in front of S400 launchers (tubes) but without the other components like the radar which is the brain of the S400. In the PK briefing they showed a satellite image of it being identified and that they targeted it - not destroyed it. Targeting and lock on is enough to jam the radar or spoof it which creates false signals confusing the targeting system - meaning its rendered un-operational. Its essentially just empty tubes with or without rockets that can't be guided properly. If true, which is plausible (due to China's capabilities)  it's unsettling to know IND's most advanced defense system can be breached.

That's the point being missed from the Indian side in underestimating PK, which is highly dangerous. Pakistan alone wouldn't manage against India simply due to scale, power and geography. But China in the equation compensates with its modern warfare capabilities. They can assist PK with electronic warfare, cyber intervention and intelligence sharing without leaving footprints. In modern warfare its about who can be seen first. Tech trumps number of troops today.

[Ajay0]

58 minutes ago, zazen said:

@Harikrishnan Already debunked as fake due to many spelling mistakes. ''During toutine maintainence'' and ''Pollowing initial containment'' and the last line ''for queries contact lirector'' lol. Lots of propaganda out there on both sides we gotta be careful of.

Modi stood in front of S400 launchers (tubes) but without the other components like the radar which is the brain of the S400. In the PK briefing they showed a satellite image of it being identified and that they targeted it - not destroyed it. Targeting and lock on is enough to jam the radar or spoof it which creates false signals confusing the targeting system - meaning its rendered un-operational. Its essentially just empty tubes with or without rockets that can't be guided properly. If true, which is plausible (due to China's capabilities)  it's unsettling to know IND's most advanced defense system can be breached.

That's the point being missed from the Indian side in underestimating PK, which is highly dangerous. Pakistan alone wouldn't manage against India simply due to scale, power and geography. But China in the equation compensates with its modern warfare capabilities. They can assist PK with electronic warfare, cyber intervention and intelligence sharing without leaving footprints. In modern warfare its about who can be seen first. Tech trumps number of troops today.

Pakistan uses mainly Chinese equipment, around 80 % , but it had still suffered a heavy defeat against India. 

Some Pakistani-chinese missiles like the famed Pl-15  landed in India intact without exploding and was recovered intact by the Indian military and research scientists.

So chinese support did not make much impact on the war.

Due to participation in BRICS, momentum of ancient civilizational ties,  and Chinese interest in the Indian market which is the largest in the world , diplomatic relations have improved between India and China. Also China is wary of the increasing hostility of US and Europe, due to a highly possible military confrontation over Taiwan and ally North Korea,  and does not want to be on the wrong side with India as well and a war front over there.

 

Edited May 14 by Ajay0

[zazen]

3 hours ago, Ajay0 said:

India has comfortably cruised to its sixth consecutive victory over Pakistan. 

Cruise missile atacks on 11  Pakistani air bases destroyed much of their infrastructure and aviation assets leaving them operationally non-functional. Pakistani air defences and radars and an AWACS had also been taken out which meant that it had no defence against Indian jet attacks.

It was at this point that Pakistan ended its retaliatory posturing and immediately called up the US and Saudi Arabia to persuade India to a cease-fire.

India, having attained its strategic objectives, agreed to the cease-fire.

Since Pakistan is noted for its military coups transplanting its democratic governments with military dictatorships, this new heavy defeat will greatly reduce the prestige and influence of the Pakistani military, ensuring no military coups and military dictatorships for the time being. 

Agree that Pakistan is effectively a military dictatorship. The military has been highly unpopular especially since taking down Imran Khan, but on the contrary their standing has greatly increased in the country since this episode with India. They largely view it as a tactical win, with the world not buying much of the Indian narrative and global military circles talking about the jets being downed which upends Western military supremacy - this was the Deepseek moment for China in the military domain, with their equipment being being showcased in battle for the first time.

Hard to argue any side won in a brief flare up but I do think Pakistan established enough deterrence to make India think twice about carrying on - which they would have if they thought they really had the upper hand. But that just isn't that clear.

- The estimated 4-5 jets downed in the first night alone, including a Rafael and Su-30 which are the most advanced, shifts the psychological balance. That was with 0 losses PK side. Imagine this went on for 30 days, that air attrition rate would be unsustainable for India. 

Pakistan have the edge in BVR (beyond visual range) - meaning they can see first, lock on first, and strike first. In modern air combat, 90% of kills happen before the enemy is even seen with the naked eye. This is why Indian jets didn't enter Pakistani air space but Pakistani jets briefly entered India's to chase down Indian jets on their return to the airbase.

- The possibility to lock onto S-400 and intercept Brahmos missiles using electronic warfare is another point. Those are India's crown jewels in defense and attack. The many projectiles that were intercepted aren't talked about - just the few that inevitably got through and damaged some roofs or made holes in the ground here and there, but that's far from taking any bases or military installations out of operation.

In general - who rules the skies rules the war. Because if you own the sky, that means you can protect your on the ground defense systems, target the other sides air defense systems, and strike at jets or launchpads from which missiles are launched into your own territory. 

India has the geographic depth that Pakistan doesn't, but most of India's economic centres are in the North and along the coast - all within reach of Pakistans jets and missiles. That's why I say that no one has the clear upper hand in this and its dangerous for the political elite of either country to echo chamber their own people into believing so, and war rally them into fighting the other side.

Think of China-Pakistan like US backing Israel. Except China-Pakistan have geographic proximity, and are tied together at a much higher level - at a operational level. China is the worlds leader in tech-manufacturing - they can give Pakistan a asymmetric technological edge and mass produce missiles as if a Cuban rolling up cigars for a friend. in a war of attrition this could bleed out India.

A few shorts that are valuable:

A top Indian military analyst on China-Pakistan collaboration:

On Kashmir:

When there's demographic suppression and engineering taking place in Kashmir, why is it implausible for there to be local resistance to that, including backlash from Kashmiris themselves, even to the level of terrorism. Just like whats occurred in Palestine. Even if Pakistan were to dissappear tomororw as I've seen seen BJP supporters fever dream - the underlying cause is still there of Kashmir. Local Kashmiri's would still resist and violently so - there's also still sympathetic Muslims within India - almost the same size in number as Pakistan itself who could radicalize and cause an insurgency.

Finally on the point about India beating Pakistan before therefore thinking its easy to do it again - those weren't decisive victories and today Pakistan has nuclear parity and a superpowers backing. The 3 main wars:

- 1947: Both grabbed what they reached first in Kashmir and defended it - the UN froze it and established the line of control which till this day hasn't shifted.

- 1965: Stale mate with losses on both sides.

- 1971: Pakistan lost in a civil war - India helped midwife Bangladesh but didn't conquer Pakistan proper in terms of its core territory.

The breakup of Pakistan was already in motion and inevitable simply due to its unnatural geography. East Pakistan was home to tens of millions and had its own language, culture, and identity. No other modern nation has had a split territory with two massive wings separated by another country.

It's one thing to have a small integrated island remain a part of a nation - like Spain has Mallorca or France has Corsica - but not a large enough island or land with millions of people who could have their own autonomy. Was never going to last.

 

 

Edited May 14 by zazen

[Ajay0]

4 minutes ago, zazen said:

Agree that Pakistan is effectively a military dictatorship. The military has been highly unpopular especially since taking down Imran Khan, but on the contrary their standing has greatly increased in the country since this episode with India. They largely view it as a tactical win, with the world not buying much of the Indian narrative and global military circles talking about the jets being downed which upends Western military supremacy - this was the Deepseek moment for China in the military domain, with their equipment being being showcased in battle for the first time.

Pakistan has good propaganda and conditioning mechanisms, and this is a reason why the Pakistani military establishment is well set in Pakistan inspite of six defeats against India. 

The british and american press has taken up pakistani claims of downing rafales, because they are sore that India did not buy the euro-fighter and F-21's offered to India,  and will obviously take a chance to disparage the rafale.

It is just politics as usual. Losing a rafale is not a major thing for India if the loss comes after attainment of strategic objectives. The Indian economy is the fastest growing economy on earth for years, and can easily replace any downed jets.

This is not the case with pakistan which has a very weak economy at the moment surviving on aid and loans for a very long time.

 

[Ajay0]

Pakistan has admitted of providing nuclear weapons technology to north korea.

North Korea has developed nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles targeting American bases in eastern asia.

It has now unveiled its first nuclear submarine, possibly with chinese help, capable of targeting american cities and military bases in north america.

Both Pakistan and North Korea have good relationships with Iran meaning that Iran will probably be gaining such capabilities in the future.

India however has a good track record of non-proliferation of technologies related to weapons of mass destruction.

[zazen]

55 minutes ago, Ajay0 said:

Losing a rafale is not a major thing for India if the loss comes after attainment of strategic objectives.

That's an issue if the objective is tackling terrorism. It's very hard to bomb our way out of terrorism, because for every kill and collateral civilian hit alongside that kill - those grievances recruit more to the fight. Like Elon Musk said was the issue with Israels strategy. Especially if your targeting a foreign sovereign territory - those 'terrorists' now have the ammo to rally new recruits around a external threat. 

USA had a massive drone program targeting terrorists in Pakistan, with local Pakistan intelligence intel - and every think tank said their efforts didn't bare much fruit. Because terrorism stems from some grievance not being taken care of, and more killing only causes more grievances.

Like I said above:

''When there's demographic suppression and engineering taking place in Kashmir, why is it implausible for there to be local resistance to that, including backlash from Kashmiris themselves, even to the level of terrorism. Just like whats occurred in Palestine. Even if Pakistan were to dissappear tomororw as I've seen seen BJP supporters fever dream - the underlying cause is still there of Kashmir. Local Kashmiri's would still resist and violently so - there's also still sympathetic Muslims within India - almost the same size in number as Pakistan itself who could radicalize and cause an insurgency.''

55 minutes ago, Ajay0 said:

Pakistan has good propaganda and conditioning mechanisms, and this is a reason why the Pakistani military establishment is well set in Pakistan inspite of six defeats against India. 

The british and american press has taken up pakistani claims of downing rafales, because they are sore that India did not buy the euro-fighter and F-21's offered to India,  and will obviously take a chance to disparage the rafale.

https://www.statista.com/chart/31605/rank-of-misinformation-disinformation-among-selected-countries/

Both seem to suffer from propaganda, India being first unfortunately. The media blasted out that they had blown Karachi port and others cities were destroyed - utterly credibility destroying.

Edited May 14 by zazen

[Ajay0]

7 minutes ago, zazen said:

That's an issue if the objective is tackling terrorism. It's very hard to bomb our way out of terrorism, because for every kill and collateral civilian hit alongside that kill - those grievances recruit more to the fight. Like Elon Musk said was the issue with Israels strategy. Especially if your targeting a foreign sovereign territory - those 'terrorists' now have the ammo to rally new recruits around a external threat. 

To contrast the Pakistani killing of unarmed civilians, India has prioritised the attacking of terrorist infrastructure as well as Pakistan military assets in Pakistan and did not attack Pakistani civilians or civilian institutions. 

Obviously we don't want to create fodder for Pakistani propaganda mechanisms ourselves.

The large number of terrorist attacks the US and Europe have faced is mainly because of this same lack of prioritization.

The Anglo-American invasion of Iraq with its shock and awe strategy, obviously means there were heavy civilian casualities involved.

The US even took out an Iranian civilian airliner with surface to air missiles from an American cruiser, killing over 290 Iranian civilians,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655

This is unprofessionalism and incompetence at its peak.

Quote

 

''When there's demographic suppression and engineering taking place in Kashmir, why is it implausible for there to be local resistance to that, including backlash from Kashmiris themselves, even to the level of terrorism. Just like whats occurred in Palestine. Even if Pakistan were to dissappear tomororw as I've seen seen BJP supporters fever dream - the underlying cause is still there of Kashmir. Local Kashmiri's would still resist and violently so - there's also still sympathetic Muslims within India - almost the same size in number as Pakistan itself who could radicalize and cause an insurgency.''

 

India, in addition to its 2.6 million strong army, also have a 2.5 million strong paramilitary force to take care of any insurgencies.

This along with good and fair administration, along with eradication of Jihadi madrasas and radicalising mechanisms with their replacement by schools and universities, mean that the same conditioning mechanisms present in pakistan or elsewhere is not present in India to a large extent.

There are however instances where Indian muslims had been radicalized abroad and had participated in jihadi attacks against western targets such as the 2007 Glasgow Airport attack.

These are but rare instances and the majority of terrorists attacking western targets have come from Pakistan.

Former Indian president APJ Abdul Kalam was also a highly skilled technocrat who played a major role in the development of Indian missile and space rocket system. 

The indian muslim population is around 14 % of the indian population and due to lack of radicalizing agencies in India, and tend to be coherent and well established in business and professional occupations. At one time, a muslim businessman and billionaire named Azim Premji was the richest man in India.

[Ajay0]

Just as in conflict-prone Baluchistan, Pakistan occupied Kashmir had also shown resentment towards pakistan for denying them political autonomy and rights over the regions resources.

https://thediplomat.com/2024/05/making-sense-of-recent-mass-protests-in-pakistan-occupied-kashmir/

Quote

 

On May 13, violent clashes erupted in the so-called Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) of Pakistan-administered Jammu and Kashmir between civilians led by the AJK Joint Awami Action Committee (JAAC) and paramilitary Rangers. The clashes resulted in the death of one police official and three civilians. Close to a hundred people were injured.

Shaukat Nawaz Mir, a JAAC leader, described the firing on unarmed protestors as “state terrorism.” In addition to calling for punishment of those who fired on the civilian protestors, Mir demanded a judicial inquiry into the police action and the release of detained activists.

 

Even in Indian Kashmir indiscriminate shelling of border areas by Pakistani army in Kashmir have led to the deaths and injuries of many kashmiri muslims and consequently there is not much sympathy for Pakistan amongst them.

An Indian Kashmiri muslim was among the 26 killed in Pahalgam, when he tried to stop the killing of the tourists.

A major reason for east pakistan/bangladesh rebelling and gaining independence from pakistan was mainly due to poor and unfair administrative policies that prioritized west pakistan over east pakistan, and the unequal distribution of resources and political power. 

Without a fair and impartial administration one is bound to forment grievances and disloyalty.

The Mohajirs, a collective name for the Indian muslim immigrants to Pakistan, have been similarly treated as second class citizens and have complained of political marginalization, persecution  and discrimination.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Persecution_of_Muhajirs

Sunni-shia riots in Pakistan is commonplace and has resulted in a large amount of deaths and bloodshed, but these are rarities in India and mainly unheard of .

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sectarian_violence_in_Pakistan

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Shi'ism

Similarly the Ahmediyas are a sect of Islam based in Pakistan and are known for their renunciation of violent jihad and focus on scholarship and learning instead.

The only Nobel prize laureate from Pakistan and the Islamic world in physics is Dr.Abdus Salam who is a member of the Ahmediya community.

However the Ahmediyas have been subjected to heavy discrimination by the sunni majority, and Dr. Abdus Salam was even discriminated against in Pakistan during his life-time for superficial prejudices.

When Salam visited India, he was treated with due respect and honor by the Indian establishment considering his scholarship and Nobel Laureateship prompting him to say that he was prouder to say that he was Indian rather than Pakistani.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persecution_of_Ahmadis

Similarly sufi shrines in India are visited by both muslims and hindus for blessings, and sufi music and dance are usually portrayed in Indian movies due to their aesthetic nature.

In pakistan on the other, attacks on sufis are also commonplace by Islamic extremists resulting in considerable bloodshed.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persecution_of_Sufis#:~:text=injured in attacks.-,Pakistan,majority nations%2C such as Pakistan.

[Harikrishnan]

5 hours ago, zazen said:

@Harikrishnan Already debunked as fake due to many spelling mistakes. ''During toutine maintainence'' and ''Pollowing initial containment'' and the last line ''for queries contact lirector'' lol. Lots of propaganda out there on both sides we gotta be careful of.

 

The way there military briefed during press meet,  I don’t think spelling is an issue. 
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/05/14/world/asia/india-pakistan-attack-damage-satellite-images.html

[Harikrishnan]

This is an eye opening video of how wahabism and with that militancy came to Kashmir. It was not Indian state that tore up common lives in kashmir