Latest Ukraine/Russia Thread

[BlueOak]

As Russia goes off the cliff, and China moves in on Siberia. 
Konstantine was always a steady proponent of Russia's economic trajectory; he avoided saying "collapse," as other youtubers did. Because to him, a collapse in Russia would mean no money for food, as an example, not some minor inconveniences.

He has always said that future generations will pay for Putin and the KGB fossils wars, and stayed steady on that view.
 

 

Overall Prep for World War 3:
 

 

 

Edited 13 hours ago by BlueOak

[Hatfort]

Russia continues advancing toward victory, six more towns in Zaporizhia and Donetsk last days, not to forget about Pokrovsk and Kupiansk last weeks, quite important strongholds for the Ukrainian side, now Russian. The four oblasts are going to be Russia, this is inevitable. If Ukraine had some sense, they would use the parts of these territories it holds as a decent negotiating card, but they don't have it, so Russia will take them by force. Then we'll see how the power balance remains, it may go even further. 

Security guarantee demands in the mouth of NATO and its vasels equal to a de facto NATO adhesion of what remains of Ukraine, and Russia, as the inevitable victor in this war, is not going to concede on that, no matter how you call it. The Minsk accords showed Russia that the Europeans and the US are not trustworthy, so they are not going to fall for their bullshit again, they are fighting and winning, and they will set the military terms of the outcome to the losers. 

Without counting Ukraine, Europe is the big loser of this conflict. They have been conned by the US in a way, which was the biggest perpetrator of all this, now Europe depends on the US energy supply at a much higher price. The US blew up the Nord Stream, Biden was asked about it, and his answer gives no room for doubt. European leaders are both stupid and sold out to do anything about it though, and keep falling like in the last military budgets approved in favor of the US industry. 

Propaganda noise about the Russian collapse is smoke, that is not going to happen. Russia has no problem keeping this ongoing economically, militarily, and socially. Ukraine has more manpower problems, and we'll see how long European cucks want to continue funding the US military industry, and the corrupts in Ukraine. The trend won't change, Russia will win. When? Unknown, maybe months, probably years. 

[BlueOak]

5 hours ago, Hatfort said:

Russia continues advancing toward victory, six more towns in Zaporizhia and Donetsk last days, not to forget about Pokrovsk and Kupiansk last weeks, quite important strongholds for the Ukrainian side, now Russian. The four oblasts are going to be Russia, this is inevitable. If Ukraine had some sense, they would use the parts of these territories it holds as a decent negotiating card, but they don't have it, so Russia will take them by force. Then we'll see how the power balance remains, it may go even further. 

Security guarantee demands in the mouth of NATO and its vasels equal to a de facto NATO adhesion of what remains of Ukraine, and Russia, as the inevitable victor in this war, is not going to concede on that, no matter how you call it. The Minsk accords showed Russia that the Europeans and the US are not trustworthy, so they are not going to fall for their bullshit again, they are fighting and winning, and they will set the military terms of the outcome to the losers. 

Without counting Ukraine, Europe is the big loser of this conflict. They have been conned by the US in a way, which was the biggest perpetrator of all this, now Europe depends on the US energy supply at a much higher price. The US blew up the Nord Stream, Biden was asked about it, and his answer gives no room for doubt. European leaders are both stupid and sold out to do anything about it though, and keep falling like in the last military budgets approved in favor of the US industry. 

Propaganda noise about the Russian collapse is smoke, that is not going to happen. Russia has no problem keeping this ongoing economically, militarily, and socially. Ukraine has more manpower problems, and we'll see how long European cucks want to continue funding the US military industry, and the corrupts in Ukraine. The trend won't change, Russia will win. When? Unknown, maybe months, probably years. 

There isn't much longer left for Russia. If this is victory I don't want to see what their defeat looks like! Holding Russia here in these regions was NATO's entire goal, draining them of their ability to fight until they could no longer do so. I've said this for years. I said at the start Ukraine would lose land, and a year later when the pattern was obvious, Russia would drain itself until it could no longer continue.

They funded this by using up their savings and now overleveraging themselves through debt, selling their gold reserves, removing all their countries' future wealth and overleveraging bonds. They've spent a generation to gain ruined cities and dead lands, but its going to take 2 generations to get them out of the hole.

I can drop source after source, the first one is by a Russian economist who used to live there telling you that. But let's define what not much longer left, actually means. There are a few obvious end state scenarios for both countries.

Russia:

Puppet of China. The most likely outcome. This would leave Russia whole but largely beholden to China. This seems to be the current pattern, and as patterns rarely change, I would guess this to be the final outcome.

Russian Oblasts break away—possible if things get bad enough. When people can't eat they tend to rebel, no matter the level of suppression. This is more likely in provinces like Dagestan, Chechnya, and Georgia, and possibly Siberia, where all the wealth comes from. As fewer men exist to keep order in lands that have seen massive losses both in terms of population or economic problems, and more are just killed off in Ukraine this becomes more likely.

The Russian recession grinds them into nothing. As oil prices are the lowest they've ever been relative for a long time, more people are producing, and less people are needing oil, they are screwed long-term. They've blown off both their feet with the amount of debt they are incurring; it could just be the Russian recession ends all their imperial ambitions for the next few decades. (Depends how greedy the Americans become in doing business with them post war).

A quick coup. Clean, efficient, new name, same old story. Quite likely this one too. Putin is old so its going to happen eventually anyway, and it always happens when a war goes poorly, as this one has. The 3 day war becoming several years and if it continues to its conclusion, it'll have cost them 2 million in casualties, many of the wounded will have PTSD and be crippled, and it'll carry that also, along with the absurd amount of criminals or sociopaths re-released into society, etc.

Ukraine:

Independent Guarantees. Holding the Russians in the provinces, and draining Russia so much it cannot continue to push, but continually threatened by further war in the decades ahead. Quite a likely end point, it depends how seriously their security is taken by those entering defense aggreements with them.

Part of the EU. A somewhat likely scenario as America descends into a dictatorship and authoritarian state. The EU is taking more and more control over its military, forming an EU military that doesn't need America at all. Ukraine could enter this if its in the EU.

Part of NATO. Highly unlikely now but a possible long term alignment. I think it would be more quickly trigger new hostilities, but Russia always attacks; that's the way they operate. Until they can be either broken up or they change their way of interacting with their western neighbors.

On territory:

Ukraine has repeatedly said they will negotiate territory but Russia wants UKRAINE and the BALTICS. (All former USSR territory, places like Georgia and Moldova etc). There is no negotiation with them. There is stopping them on the battlefield and killing off their ability to push further. That's all that will ever exist. Russia will use up 2 million men to take these territories and will end up in a hole so big (it already is) they'll be done as we've known them.

Security guarantees are the only way to try for a lasting peace. Force to stop Russia's forceful expansion. That's all that will keep them in check, that or their country breaking apart to free the provinces the Muscovites leech off of.

On the US:

Much as I hate the direction the US has taken. Russia invading ukraine, is Russia's responsibility, nobody elses. The death toll is entirely on them. To this day, people being unable to accept the responsibility for their own actions or trying to pass it off to others boils my blood. The Russians make a professional habit of it, drinking their problems away and blaming the world.

Minsc Accords, a quick GPT Summary:

1. What the Minsk Agreements were

The Minsk I (September 2014) and Minsk II (February 2015) agreements were negotiated to halt fighting in eastern Ukraine and set out measures including:

A ceasefire and withdrawal of heavy weapons,

OSCE monitoring,

Restoration of Ukrainian control over its border, and

Political/democratic steps in Donetsk and Luhansk within Ukrainian law. Wikipedia

📌 2. Russian violations during implementation

Independent analysis shows Russia violated several key elements of the agreements in practice:

➤ Militarily and security-related violations

Russia maintained military involvement and support for separatist forces in Donbas — contrary to the spirit and language of the ceasefire and withdrawal provisions. Analysts note the presence of Russian forces and equipment, which the agreements were designed to remove or demobilise. Atlantic Council

Ceasefire violations were frequent, and OSCE monitoring reports regularly documented breaches, many attributed to Russian-aligned fighters. Wikipedia

➤ Political/legal violations

Russia’s 2022 recognition of the so-called “independence” of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DPR/LPR) directly contradicts the Minsk agreements’ goal of reintegration of these areas under Ukrainian sovereignty. Multiple expert sources state this act killed off the Minsk process. EUvsDisinfo+1

➤ Russia’s own statements

In February 2022, President Putin declared that the Minsk agreements “no longer existed,” explicitly rejecting their obligations.

 

Edited 3 hours ago by BlueOak

[BlueOak]

 

 

5 hours ago, Hatfort said:

Russia continues advancing toward victory, six more towns in Zaporizhia and Donetsk last days, not to forget about Pokrovsk and Kupiansk last weeks, quite important strongholds for the Ukrainian side, now Russian.

This is of course a lie however

Edited 3 hours ago by BlueOak