Leo's amazing predictions

[StaraX]

Leo just mentioned that he doesn't like to make predictions. I'd say the opposite. They're pretty damn accurate, and there's something special about them. They have a kind of unique mixture of analytics and his own intuition. So my suggestion is: make as many predictions as you can, on any topic!

[integral]

his record is 50/50.

A good prediction has to be right about Direction and about timing, Its extremely hard to get both right

AI bubble could pop six years from now and what exactly is going to happen that we can benefit from? Do we buy the dip?  

Edited 22 hours ago by integral

[enchanted]

My prediction is that Leo's prediction will be wrong. Leo rivals the best and most profound spiritual teachings of all time. But Leo is not a financial master or teacher. 

Here's my rationale: Predicting the crash of any market is notoriously hard to do. Crypto is little more than trading cards for adults yet it's staggering rise has defined all logic and reason for years. (Block chain has some uses). Simply put the ruling class will not give up power and replace it with the utopian fantasy that crypto fanatics profess to. 

Unlike crypto, AI is already proven extremely useful, with all levels of society using it everyday to great improvements in almost all facets of business and personal life. AI will continue to rise and predicting a short term pop in the market is a fools errand. 

Furthermore, a 2000's style Dotcom bubble market collapse could happen, but that could be years out and it's very hard to predict when that will be. It's very hard to tell if a temporary pullback is the start of a topping pattern or if it's just a temporary short term pullback. Even if a crash does occur the major players will still rise overtime. Only the small companies that don't make money, and are just rising due to industry hype will die out. This happens with all new industries. 

Edited 18 hours ago by enchanted

[Leo Gura]

8 hours ago, integral said:

AI bubble could pop six years from now

No way. It will pop much sooner. I give it 0-2 years. It will pop before Trump's term is over.

Yes, it is hard to make good predictions, which is why I try to avoid it.

Edited 13 hours ago by Leo Gura

[Uddi]

@Leo Gura Can you soon make a video deconstructing the myth of AI? I feel it is important during this time as the bubble is just getting bigger and bigger and also I am super tired of the notion that AI WILL become conscious.

[Leo Gura]

6 hours ago, Uddi said:

Can you soon make a video deconstructing the myth of AI?

Not a high priority for me, but I might have to just to save some of you guys from financial ruin.

This prediction feels too obvious to even make a big deal of it.

Edited 4 hours ago by Leo Gura

[OBEler]

@Leo Gura Can you in a nutshell say why you think ai bubble will pop?

I dont see that. AI will save every company a lot of money because they need less employees and everything on a computer can get automated almost completely. Even if AGI doesnt come in next years, the technology is already good enough.

Edited 4 hours ago by OBEler

[bazera]

7 hours ago, Uddi said:

Can you soon make a video deconstructing the myth of AI?

https://www.amazon.com/dp/0063418568?lv=shuf&channelId=500&plpRedirect=mhFallback

Read this, they do a pretty good job at that. 

[Leo Gura]

14 minutes ago, OBEler said:

@Leo Gura Can you in a nutshell say why you think ai bubble will pop?

I dont see that. AI will save every company a lot of money because they need less employees and everything on a computer can get automated almost completely. Even if AGI doesnt come in next years, the technology is already good enough.

In a nutshell, they are all assuming AGI is coming soon, but they will not create AGI in the next 5 years. They can bullshit around this for a while, but within a few years everyone will see AGI is not coming. They will run out of money and every investor will run for the exits at once, causing the fastest crash in history.

Without AGI human jobs cannot be replaced. Sure, automation will happen, but that is very different from replacing serious creative jobs. AI is great for automating factory work. But that cannot sustain the current stock valuations.

Edited 3 hours ago by Leo Gura

[OBEler]

@Leo Gura what do you think how much of the office jobs are  serious creative jobs? Almost zero. They can already replaced completely if the infrastructure is built. 

An Ai can developed  50-100x faster than a normal software developer right now. If you don't work in gaming industry, software development is pretty mundane. 

No one needs AGI. It's already there what you need. You  don't need AGI for office jobs. 

If you think we are in a AI bubble because AGI will not happen next 5 years, then something is wrong in your thesis. No investor is interested in AGI. They are interested if an AI can reduce costs and improve the output of a company. Who cares if that is not like real human intelligence.

Edited 3 hours ago by OBEler

[Leo Gura]

17 minutes ago, OBEler said:

@Leo Gura what do you think how much of the office jobs are  serious creative jobs? Almost zero.

I disagree with this entirely. You are underestimating how much intelligence goes into even basic jobs like mowing the lawn.

You need AGI just to mow a lawn properly.

Quote

If you think we are in a AI bubble because AGI will not happen next 5 years, then something is wrong in your thesis. No investor is interested in AGI.

I disagree. AGI is already priced into the market. Every AI company is raising money based on AGI promises, not normal automation.

This bubble is precisely about AGI not coming to pass. Just look at all these tech nerd CEOs. They all assume AGI is coming tomorrow. They are so dumb.

Edited 3 hours ago by Leo Gura

[CosmicExplorer]

The market doesn't necessarily have to crash, it can also just go kind of sideways for a decade or with mediocre 3% returns a year. The expected return for the next decade is very low right now.

[Leo Gura]

7 minutes ago, CosmicExplorer said:

The market doesn't necessarily have to crash

I disagree. It has to crash because current prices are only sustained by conformity and group-think. This social contagion will not last.

Once wise investors start cashing out, there will be a conformist stampede to the only exit.

Edited 3 hours ago by Leo Gura

[Natasha Tori Maru]

Investors cashing out, and maybe AI companies getting the shit sued out of them for copyright infringement (although this could be a drop in the ocean compared to investors pulling out) :

https://axis-intelligence.com/ai-copyright-lawsuits-status-tracker/

[StaraX]

@OBEler Just a simple question: if AI replaces most jobs, what will hundreds of millions of people do? UBI isn't going to solve this problem. In fact, it will solve nothing. 

Also, who takes responsibility? Can a machine be responsible for its output? Who's going to make the decisions? The machine?

[Leo Gura]

If AI can replace jobs so easily, why don't we start first with CEO jobs?

Why don't we replace Elon Musk with Grok?

If AI cannot replace Elon Musk, it cannot replace a programmer.

These tech CEOs would themselves be fucked if AI worked like their fantasies believe.

They are trying to sell us a monorail. I am not buying it.

Edited 1 hour ago by Leo Gura